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Jason Kaplan

 
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  • Cinedigm: Significant Upside With Secular Tailwinds [View article]
    Independent film distribution is by and large a horrible business. Everyone is looking for that needle in the haystack, which they never find. Don't forget Night Moves, released May 30th which did a whopping $271K at the box office...and that's their second biggest film according to your list.
    Sep 19 09:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cinedigm: Significant Upside With Secular Tailwinds [View article]
    Pretty rosey projections, particularly in the deployment business. I think this business is in deep trouble. I owned it for a while earlier this year. The last quarter was particularly disastrous. I would wait to see if things stabilize before pulling the trigger on this...unless you hate money.
    Sep 19 07:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Reasons Why The Recent Sell-Off In Dex Media Are Creating A Very Attractive Entry Point [View article]
    Debt reductions are at about a $400M/year run rate or $100M per quarter. That will decline over time as high margin print revenues decline. EBITDA will continue to drop to near 30% or lower. BEST case scenario debt is down by $800M by Q2 2016. What is the par value of the debt as of Q2 2014? Interest expense will not be cut in half by Q2 2016.

    I would like to see DXM merge with yp in some form. Yp seems to be the best at the digital game, though that is just from what I have seen the CEO talk about. I haven't seen the numbers (revenue growth, margins, etc.).
    Sep 14 11:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reasons Why The Recent Sell-Off In Dex Media Are Creating A Very Attractive Entry Point [View article]
    I'm sorry, but it is not my job to educate you on how to conservatively project financial results. And yes, print will continue to decline at 20% +/-. Don't make the mistake of extrapolating what a small and/or shrinking user base may do to a much larger population. For example, I will never buy the Apple watch, but that doesn't mean a lot of people won't!
    Sep 10 10:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reasons Why The Recent Sell-Off In Dex Media Are Creating A Very Attractive Entry Point [View article]
    It's all about free cash flow, buddy. That is what is going to reduce the debt. It all depends on how low margins go. I think you can pretty safely assume print declines 22%+ every year. How fast can digital grow? How are the margins on digital? Those are the big questions. I think it is safe to assume the projections for digital growth and revenue stability laid out in the merger presentation will not be met.
    Sep 10 09:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reasons Why The Recent Sell-Off In Dex Media Are Creating A Very Attractive Entry Point [View article]
    The par value of the debt is not $2.5B. I'd invite you to look at the 10Q for that number. Besides these little one off repurchases below par, the debt will have to be retired at par. It is also what cash interest expense is keyed off of. Second, no one cares about GAAP net income. The longer this company doesn't post a GAAP profit the better. The amortization expense is a tax shield and is non-cash. It is good to have. Your price target is a pipe dream. You should take an accounting course, no offense.
    Sep 10 08:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reasons Why The Recent Sell-Off In Dex Media Are Creating A Very Attractive Entry Point [View article]
    Looks like 20k of those contracts were opened on August 12 for $1.50. 8600 contracts were opened on June 17 for $1.25. So yes, someone is going to lose.
    Sep 9 01:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reasons Why The Recent Sell-Off In Dex Media Are Creating A Very Attractive Entry Point [View article]
    Also it you are referring to the subdebt, yes I don't think that is allowed.
    Sep 9 12:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reasons Why The Recent Sell-Off In Dex Media Are Creating A Very Attractive Entry Point [View article]
    yeah it isn't much, more symbolic that anything. Tender for all of what notes? The subdebt? They don't have that much cash!
    Sep 9 12:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reasons Why The Recent Sell-Off In Dex Media Are Creating A Very Attractive Entry Point [View article]
    It looks like DXM is tendering for another $27M in debt below par. See 8-K out today.
    Sep 9 11:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • George Soros Is Betting Against The Market And Why Investors Should Take Notice [View article]
    George doesn't even manage the fund anymore. It's his son. And this is just hedging the long book. Move along.
    Sep 3 10:38 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sorry Whitney: Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Is Not Krispy Kreme [View article]
    Yeah but did he hold or did he sell?
    Sep 2 03:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reasons Why The Recent Sell-Off In Dex Media Are Creating A Very Attractive Entry Point [View article]
    What are your assumption for FCF for 2015 and 2016? They are at about a $400M run-rate right now. I'd assume it drops to maybe $350M in 2015 given the print declines offset by synergies and lower interest expense.

    I suspect a tie-up with yp would involve some debt for equity. I wonder what yp's capital structure looks like. Does AT&T report anything other than earnings from its equity stake? I've never looked.
    Aug 30 12:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reasons Why The Recent Sell-Off In Dex Media Are Creating A Very Attractive Entry Point [View article]
    These guys insisted on zero dilution with the refinancing/merger. I can't imagine that will happen anytime soon, though it may ultimately come to that.
    Aug 29 07:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reasons Why The Recent Sell-Off In Dex Media Are Creating A Very Attractive Entry Point [View article]
    What do you think about a tie-up of some sort with yp? It seems inevitable but maybe the pe ownership complicates things.
    Aug 29 07:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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