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Jason Kaplan  

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  • Back From The Brink - Why Bond Insurers Look Attractive Again [View article]
    It was obliterated this week. I know a lot of smart people (hedge funds) that still believe all the GO debt is money good. PREPA looks like they are going to work out a permanent solution by the end of the year...something that will repower plants with nat gas and solar. Haircut should be minimal.

    Thesis still intact. S&P came out this week defending both MBI and AGO...saying both could withstand defaults in PR with no changes to their capital adequacy. If you believe that, you have to be buying at these levels. It would be nice if some MBI insiders bought at these levels...probably restricted now until earnings come out.
    Jul 4, 2015. 10:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Back From The Brink - Why Bond Insurers Look Attractive Again [View article]
    New reports from Reuters that a $645M PR GO payment will be made on July 1 as well as a $415M PREPA payment. Good news it appears. Fingers crossed.
    Jun 30, 2015. 03:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Most Logical Way To Play Yahoo's Pullback [View article]
    A 3X sales multiple on core YHOO? Why? Sales mean nothing without earnings. Everyone seems to be using 5x ebitda to value core, which seems reasonable. Ebitda is also declining BTW.
    Jun 30, 2015. 01:07 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Back From The Brink - Why Bond Insurers Look Attractive Again [View article]
    Longs certainly took a beating today on the PR Governor comments. Let's see how it plays out. The next few days should prove interesting.
    Jun 29, 2015. 10:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Did Investors' Rejection Of HomeAway's Amended Equity Incentive Plan Go Unnoticed? [View article]
    The green box reduces the FCF by the amount of the stock based comp. And yes the company would have less cash from fewer options exercised.
    Jun 26, 2015. 10:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Lamar Is My Favorite Dividend Growth Stock [View article]
    Sorry. That last guy got me going with his comments. If you look at the gross profit margins and EBITDA margins, they have been consistent for many, many years. I'm looking back to 1994. So that tells me it is below the EBITDA line. Quick look its really the depreciation and amortization. Probably some intangibles like customer lists or maybe they used to capitalize sales commissions as well. D&A expense has come way down in recent years, allowing more GAAP profits to flow through. The company believes it will use all its NOLs by ~2018. Lamar will continue to show negative retained earnings though since it will be paying out nearly all of its net income to shareholders. In my opinion, the large accumulated deficit in no way represents this company's ability to generate very healthy free-cash-flow now or in the future. I'd also encourage you to call Lamar's IR team to get a more complete story on the historical GAAP losses. I have found them to be knowledgeable and very responsive.
    Jun 25, 2015. 01:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Lamar Is My Favorite Dividend Growth Stock [View article]
    You guys are very myopic! You should do a little digging and consider where this company can go, not where it has been. Oh and try following the cash flow AND consider what assets this company owns and what kind of investment is needed to maintain them. Stop trying to put it in your traditional REIT model because it won't work.

    "These numbers for me and my career as a top financial exec with a masters in finance portend to trouble in any serious downturn. " - good one
    Jun 25, 2015. 11:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Play Qihoo 360's $10 Billion Going-Private Offer [View article]
    Of course the board is going to accept this proposal.
    Jun 25, 2015. 07:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Lamar Is My Favorite Dividend Growth Stock [View article]
    More great points. One question on LAMR: won't it naturally lever itself up over time? If by 2019 it pays out nearly all its AFFO it is going to need cash for capex, "tuck in" acquisitions, etc., right? What are its options? Issue stock or debt? At that point it looks more like a traditional REIT, at least from my perspective.
    Jun 24, 2015. 04:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Lamar Is My Favorite Dividend Growth Stock [View article]
    Yes LAMR has a larger market cap vs OUT but similar revenues. But again LAMR's ebitda margin is 12 points higher than OUT. It is generating a lot more cash than OUT and has less debt. OUT is already paying out nearly all its FCF. Until OUT can show increased FCF as opposed to declining FCF, I don't think you can be too positive on its dividend increasing at the rate I expect from LAMR. To me, between the two stocks, it's a no brainer. Team Reilly all the way.
    Jun 24, 2015. 02:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Lamar Is My Favorite Dividend Growth Stock [View article]
    Great points. Thanks for posting.
    Jun 24, 2015. 01:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • HomeAway +3%; Piper sees a buyout target [View news story]
    Just because it has been an awful stock for the last couple of years doesn't mean it will continue to be an awful stock. Investor fatigue = opportunity for new shareholders.
    Jun 24, 2015. 06:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vipshop: More Indications Of Misrepresentation [View article]
    Read this article. With regards to your major points, it seems as though you make a lot of accusations but I don't see a lot of proof. You say things like "we believe they are doing X to funnel funds to related parties." Ok well do you have any proof? Will anyone ever have any proof? Because if you don't these will remain accusations and that will be that.

    I know some pretty smart hedge funds that did a lot of digging into VIPS, Passport and ESG to name a few. Both own or have owned a lot of this company. They do on the ground due diligence, not just reading some filings. I'm not saying they are right here, but going to China, meeting with management, suppliers, customers, doing background checks, doing surveys, etc. - it all adds up to more than what you put on paper here. Just saying.
    Jun 23, 2015. 09:06 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Western Digital slips on JPMorgan downgrade [View news story]
    I've been following JPM's tech coverage for sometime. I find it to be pretty bad. Changing the rating this quickly after launching coverage with an Overweight is worrisome. I'd wait to see how this actually plays out. I think they are too bearish.
    Jun 23, 2015. 01:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Back From The Brink - Why Bond Insurers Look Attractive Again [View article]
    What about Puerto Rico holding the stock back? Look what it is doing today after all the news Friday night and over the weekend.
    Jun 22, 2015. 01:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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