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Jason Kaplan  

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  • Buy Petroamerica Oil - A Survivor In The Junior E&P Space [View article]
    The company included this in its PR tonight. The debt will be paid in full...no worries. It's great that the debt was denominated in CAD.

    The Company currently has approximately $53 million in cash and short-term investments, and using cash-on-hand, intends to pay off a $35 million Canadian
    dollar denominated debenture at maturity on April 19, 2015. In order to take advantage of a strong US dollar, the Company has purchased $30 million Canadian
    dollars for approximately US $24.6 million at an average exchange rate of US $0.8191 for each Canadian dollar. The Company plans to purchase the final $5
    million Canadian dollar tranche prior to the debenture maturity date.
    Additionally, the Company is currently engaged in advanced
    Feb 25, 2015. 06:38 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fannie Mae And Freddie Mac Earnings Analysis [View article]
    Yes it is. You'd be smart to take at least some off the table on a positive trial outcome. Is there a circuit court that would hear an appeal before going to the supreme court?
    Feb 22, 2015. 03:09 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fannie Mae And Freddie Mac Earnings Analysis [View article]
    No it won't take a decade to play out. If the Sweeney case has a favorable outcome the stock will rocket higher on that news alone. That could come in the next 12-24 months.
    Feb 22, 2015. 09:37 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • UNG: A Young Natural Gas Bull Rages On [View article]
    So basically you've been right for the wrong reasons, eh?
    Feb 21, 2015. 01:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dex Media Is A Fascinating Value Play [View article]
    The short position is actually not that large. There are 4.25M shares sold short. That's $31M at the current price. There is $2.4B in debt outstanding. A lot of that is in the hands of hedge funds. Hedge funds that will likely want to hedge their long positions in the debt. If $1B of the debt is in HF hands, $31M short on the equity is not that much. It could explain a lot of it. I suspect only retail investors are straight out short this stock...no one else should be that naive.
    Feb 20, 2015. 09:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dex Media Is A Fascinating Value Play [View article]
    Yeah google doesn't want to buy this company. I don't think that is the business they are in. I doubt they feel any competitive threat from DXM's web properties...neither would Yelp. The most likely move here is a merger with yp. I wish we had financial information for that company like their margins, total debt, FCF, etc. Apparently it's been a home run for the PE sponsor, Cerberus or whomever it is. I think maybe you can get an indication of how well they are doing by looking at the AT&T 10-K, since they are still a minority owner in that biz.
    Feb 20, 2015. 04:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dex Media Is A Fascinating Value Play [View article]
    I don't believe most of the short position is from people making a straightforward bet on this company going under. I know of multiple hedge funds that own the debt and hedge their long debt exposure by shorting the stock. I don't know when this changes...maybe if (when) the debt trades to par and the stock takes off...it could be a while.
    Feb 20, 2015. 02:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dex Media Is A Fascinating Value Play [View article]
    I agree. If (might be a big IF) the company can reduce debt by another $800M or so in the next 2 years and grow digital revenues to 50%+ of total revenues and maintain decent ebitda margins how is the equity not worth at least double what it is today? If it triples it still only trades at 1x FCF. Even if the equity doesn't trade up at all it still shouldn't be worth any less than it is today. Seems like a good risk/reward for a small position in your portfolio.
    Feb 20, 2015. 08:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Petroamerica Oil: The Strong Buy Rating Has Become Even Stronger [View article]
    Hey if the stock price stays below $0.20 through April 19th another 1% dilution is avoided with the expiration of warrants.
    Feb 19, 2015. 08:53 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Petroamerica Oil: The Strong Buy Rating Has Become Even Stronger [View article]
    Why would anyone care if the company does a stock rollback? Does anyone really think it matters? I get that it is perceived weakness, but really that is only a temporary consideration for the feeble minded. It won't have any lasting effect on the stock.
    Feb 19, 2015. 08:47 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Big Takeaways From Vipshop's Earnings [View article]
    Love this company's balance sheet. Accounts Receivable: $25M. Accounts payable: $987M. Hilarious.

    So if the company is selling mostly to wholesale buyers, how large is the addressable market?
    Feb 19, 2015. 03:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dex Media Is A Fascinating Value Play [View article]
    Yes, I agree. If the company does a bankruptcy it will be a pre-pack to just force an agreement on a small minority of holdouts. LEE did this once before. I think the current lenders will agree to an extend and pretend. If not, there should be plenty of others out there looking for fat yields that will step up to the plate. What are the odds of a global refi at the parent level instead of all these silos?
    Feb 19, 2015. 03:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dex Media Is A Fascinating Value Play [View article]
    No the debt does not need to trade at par to refinance. DXM will do another extend and pretend when the time comes...probably mid-2016ish. It will work out another deal with its lenders.
    Feb 19, 2015. 01:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dex Media Is A Fascinating Value Play [View article]
    Its a decent speculative bet. I've allocated 1% of my pa to it. I'd buy the 2016 calls. Obviously a lot had to go right, but they have a fighting chance. I'd also not rule out a merger with yp in the next couple of years. Can't wait to see how Q4 was. I think the company has maxed out the synergies with the merger. The new cost savings plan should help to maintain really nice FCF that will be used to reduce debt.
    Feb 18, 2015. 07:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mylan Sees A Sentiment Shift From A Top 3 Institutional Holder [View article]
    sfpdf said it well. I frankly don't care about trying to make the case to dallas or anyone else about why MYL is a buy. If you can't see it that is your problem. Sorry I didn't look what category this article was filed under.
    Feb 15, 2015. 01:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
497 Comments
390 Likes