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Jason Kaplan

 
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  • TravelCenters Of America - Moving Up On Declining Oil Prices [View article]
    So PTRY was acquired at about 7.8x EV/EBITDA (trailing) multiple. TA is trading at about 7.2x right now. If TA got bought for the same multiple, the equity would have additional upside of about 13.5%. Not bad.
    Dec 23, 2014. 04:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft's Xbox Segment Is Starting To Gain Significant Momentum [View article]
    "Admittedly, Microsoft's gaming division is somewhat material to the company's consolidated performance."

    I think you meant immaterial. And yes from a profitability standpoint it is completely and entirely immaterial.
    Dec 23, 2014. 03:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • TravelCenters Of America - Moving Up On Declining Oil Prices [View article]
    If you are curious, I'd suggest you do the research yourself. Let us know what you find out.
    Dec 21, 2014. 08:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TravelCenters Of America - Moving Up On Declining Oil Prices [View article]
    The only way they could pay a $2 dividend is with borrowed money. That hardly sounds prudent.
    Dec 21, 2014. 07:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Magnum Hunter Resources: Will It Ever Generate Positive Free Cash Flow? [View article]
    Well the market might cool to IPOs from MLPs and the like given what is going on in the energy markets as a whole. Multiples go down. So yes the pipeline can be worth less.
    Dec 13, 2014. 07:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Magnum Hunter Resources: Will It Ever Generate Positive Free Cash Flow? [View article]
    Uhhhh anyone still own this? Those $300M in assets for sale are no longer $300M and are no longer for sale. What's the pipeline worth nowadays?
    Dec 12, 2014. 09:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Dex One's New Hires Likely Points To A Balance Sheet Restructuring Forthcoming [View article]
    Yeah I was surprised. It's definitely good news on the cash flow front. I wasn't expecting something like this. So they are eliminating all sales offices. It will be interesting to see the results. If I was long the stock I would be encouraged by this move. It shows management is serious about keeping cash flow up to reduce debt. I wonder if they are just copying yp's strategy. The one-time costs to achieve these savings are large. It's a risky strategy, but risk is necessary for a company like this. Time will tell.
    Dec 11, 2014. 01:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Largo Resources' Ramp-Up Is Going As Planned, But The Cash Situation Will Be Tight [View article]
    Company has said how much they have shipped through December 3 (1.6M lbs). That is about $8M in revenue if you assume $5/lb selling price. The company has said they sell to Glencore for a modest discount to the listed price. The current bid price for V2O5 is $5.10. I think it is safe to assume they get about $5/lb today.

    There is an update call tomorrow with the CEO. Looking for more details then.
    Dec 9, 2014. 10:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dex Media: Still A Core Holding For Us With Multi-Bagger Potential [View article]
    Indeed it is walking a tight rope. I still am in the camp that FCF is headed lower in 2015. Margins are dropping, revenues still declining double digits. There is only so much fat the company can cut. I think merger synergies are fully or nearly fully accounted for now. The new CEO is going to ramp up spending to drive growth. Lower margins, lower debt reductions going forward will likely mean a less favorable outcome for the equity in the next refinancing. Of course I may be too pessimistic. Time will tell.
    Dec 9, 2014. 09:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Largo Resources' Ramp-Up Is Going As Planned, But The Cash Situation Will Be Tight [View article]
    I disagree. It's way too early to talk about margins and consistent revenues. Once a month production updates is fine at this stage. Rest assured margins are terrible at this production run rate. Production needs to get up, then consistency, then costs can come out and margins can come up. The company won't be down to ~$3/lb cost for quite some time. We'll have to see if they can sell any bi-products. the iron ore will not be sold with prices this low. Once they can start producing some positive FCF they can start focusing on other product sales and plant expansion.
    Dec 7, 2014. 08:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Saudi Arabia: Do The Math [View article]
    They don't care about lower revenues in the near-term. They aren't writing a check for $138M/day. Weak players, strong players - if oil is at $65/barrel (best case if you are near a pipeline to a refinery) no one is going to get financing. The Saudis are attempting to break the back of US shale and will keep their foot on the gas for a long time. They can afford to do so. The $138M will not eat into their foreign reserves...that is just ridiculous.
    Dec 5, 2014. 08:46 AM | 19 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Saudi Arabia: Do The Math [View article]
    It's not "costing" the Saudis $138M/day to overproduce. It's simply lowering revenue. It's not like they have negative net income of $138M a day. What is the Saudis breakeven cost? They don't care if they make less money. They are attempting to break the back of US shale. If you look at the leverage on these company's balance sheets, many of them are in big trouble if oil stays here or keeps falling. Yes the cost of fracking will come down, but I wouldn't bet against the Saudis here. I wouldn't bet on $100 oil again anytime soon.
    Dec 5, 2014. 07:27 AM | 42 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Magnum Hunter Resources: Will It Ever Generate Positive Free Cash Flow? [View article]
    Doesn't matter. They won't make enough money at 4.15 either.
    Dec 4, 2014. 03:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Magnum Hunter Resources: Will It Ever Generate Positive Free Cash Flow? [View article]
    Gary Evans on Mad Money on Monday promoting the stock. http://cnb.cx/1vddIvd#

    He says they likely won't sell the Bakken assets for sale now that oil has gotten smacked down. Natty getting smacked as well...double whammy.
    Dec 4, 2014. 03:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Magnum Hunter Resources: Will It Ever Generate Positive Free Cash Flow? [View article]
    Ok revs of $92M. What will cash flow be? How much will they spend on cap. ex.? Revenues don't mean a thing if you aren't generating earnings or cash. How are they going to sell that Bakken acreage now? I think you are missing the point here.
    Dec 3, 2014. 08:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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