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Keurig Green Mountain: From Adversity To Crossroads
- GMCR shares are top S&P 500 performer in 2014, but lagging fundamentals elevate downside risk.
- Combination of remedial actions, creative legal strategies and cooperation may have been factors to outcome of lengthy SEC inquiry.
- Greenlight Capital closed remaining GMCR short position in Q3, concedes to bulls, but stands firm on thesis of past accounting and financial reporting issues.
- In addition to execution risk going forward, GMCR faces potential impairment risk(s) related to previous acquisitions.
- Consumer backlash over Keurig 2.0 is a potential threat to GMCR market dominance.
Brazil: Dilma Rousseff Needs To Embrace Market Economics
- Brazilian president-elect Rousseff's second term will be no cake-walk.
- Recent sell-off might be over-reaction to headline risk, but administration will need to gain market confidence.
- Rousseff's razor-thin margin of victory reflects polarity of Brazilian voters.
- Rousseff has pledged reform but unity will require swift and pragmatic action.
- Brazil is an exciting emerging market at an inflection point.
Equity Risks: V-Shaped Bottom Or Something Profoundly Different?
- Rebound in stocks from mid-October lows occurred below bull market trendline.
- Recent sell-off and trend break followed by low-volume rebound may be "upside" correction.
- A perfect storm of margin-calls, crowded trades and ETF volatility products.
- Mid-October lows might be "interim" capitulation, but November could bring more pain.
Update: Intel Earnings
- Q2 earnings were impressive, but forward expectations are priced into the stock.
- PC demand was encouraging but sustainability of trend is uncertain.
- We sold long-term positions after earnings and believe top has been set.
Update: Goodyear Tire Earnings
- Q2 profits jump 18% on strong North American sales and cost-cutting efforts.
- Pull-back in share price presents compelling entry point.
- Solid operating margins reinforce our thesis of improved operating efficiencies.
Keurig Green Mountain: A Page From Coca-Cola's Vertical Integration Playbook?
- Increased stake in Green Mountain reveals Coke’s shrewd deal making.
- 16% minority position hedges Coke against product/market risk.
- Incremental purchases might indicate “ambiguity” of the target’s valuation.
- Step acquisitions are integral to Coke’s mandate in recent years.
- Brian Kelley’s departure from Coke to become CEO at Keurig Green Mountain may not be a coincidence.
Goodyear Tire: Are Investors Ignoring Operating Margin Improvements?
- The 10% decline in GT shares following Q1 results suggest investors may have over-reacted.
- Management has been aggressively focused on improving the company's liquidity profile.
- The recent $1.15 billion cash contribution to GT pension plan will improve earnings and cash-flow.
- Ongoing efforts to improve margins and reduce pro forma leverage not priced into GT shares.
Momentum Nosebleed Puts Market In A Nosedive
- Friday's sell-off reveals cautious investor sentiment.
- Recent record highs in S&P 500 index lack conviction.
- Market leadership groups have been weak in recent months.
- The pace of selling pressure in popular momentum stocks suggests sensitivity to valuations.
- Green Mountain Coffee: Will CEO Kelley's Previous SEC Issues Help Or Hurt?
- Starbucks K-Cup Sales Reveal Operating Leverage Advantage Over Green Mountain Coffee
- Green Mountain Coffee Roasters: Restructuring The Ghosts Of Acquisitions Past
- Green Mountain Coffee: Illegal Insider Trades Signal More Risk Ahead
- Global Bond And Currency CEFs: Murder By Macro Or Convexity Panic?
- Best Buy: The 'Best' Is Already Priced In
- Not Paying Attention To Cash Flow Can Be Dangerous
- Green Mountain Coffee: Restructuring Signals Worth Noting
- Preparing For A Market Top: Navigating Equity And Bond Risks
- Credit Rating Agencies In The Crosshairs: A Look At McGraw Hill And Moody's
- Annie's: Get Your Gun
- Balchem Corp: Compelling Value And Superb Growth Potential
- Green Mountain Coffee Roasters: Lingering Disconnect Favors The Bear Case
- Green Mountain Coffee: Don't Count Your Chickens Until They Hatch
- Green Mountain's New CEO: What Should Investors Expect?
- 2 Dividend Stocks That Keep On Giving
- Income CEFs Get Taken To The Woodshed: Overreaction Or More Pain Ahead?
- Fiscal Cliffs And Why Politicians Make Lousy Accountants
- Netflix: Icahn Stake Should Not Be Viewed As A 'Ticket To Ride'
- Watson Pharmaceutical: Superb Quality Of Earnings Is Catalyst To Push Shares Higher
- Siemens: Weak Earnings Quality Suggests Overvalued Share Price
Other Lessons Learned From The Credit Crisis: The Trail Of Crumbs
Oct. 14, 2012 • 2 Comments
- Avoid High Yield 'Premium' Risk With These 2 CEFs
- Green Mountain: Disconnect Between Admitting Mistakes And The Financial Statements