Alan Abelson Died: Lives On Through A Generation He Defined [View article]
James, A reverent tribute to Alan, thanks. If a pen can be mightier than a sword, then Mr. Albeson´s was rapier sharp indeed. It filled me with sadness to hear of his passing. JM
Currency Positioning: It Is Not About The Dollar [View article]
Marc, The inflation angle (food) reminds me of when China was turning away all those boats full of soybeans some years ago. Officials claimed the shipments were tainted with pesticides, yet the real culprit was the soy processors could not collect on their receivables.
Not only did this disrupt the supply channel, there were boatloads of spoiling soy floating at sea.
What The EU Could Learn From Margaret Thatcher [View article]
If not for the "Iron Lady", the UK's fiscal woes would be far worse than they are now. Thatcher understood that unions could not continue to be rewarded for continually piling demand upon demand without regard to the effect this had on the economy.
Why Value Investors Are Going To Cash [View article]
dwdallam,
I have always regarded the bond markets as a reliable "sanguine" indicator of the economy. Equity markets being forward looking, seem confident in economic expansion, yet Treasury yields suggest bond participants are cautious or less than "sanguine".
One of the unique characteristics of our protracted low rate environment is the tight yield spreads between investment grade and junk. Low rates also lower the cost of equity and make other asset classes appear less expensive than they otherwise would.
Low rates are the tide that has lifted all boats, but this has been going on for some time now. Historically, bonds and equities don't rise together, but the last few years have been "uncharted waters" so to speak.
An example would be last Friday's really grim job numbers. I think it really surprised everyone, but it manifest with Treasury yields pushed lower.
Bond Market Flashes Warning To Stocks: Stocks Don't Listen [View article]
Timely article! Listen for signals from the bond market. It will provide clues of the punch-bowl drying up long before the equity party knows what hit 'em.
A Critical Analysis Of Pfizer's Pipeline, Earnings And Valuation [View article]
DD, Thanks for the reply. I tend to agree w/ you regarding revenue trajectory. For years, PFE seemed to be "buying" their earnings. WYE cost $68 billion, not exactly chump change. I understand PFE's desire to pursue "big molecule" strategy, but they continue to chop, whittle and "rationalize" capital allocations and R&D. This would suggest some sort of write-down or asset impairment risk going forward.
A strike by fast food workers in New York City could have broad implications with the group's lofty goal to see a 107% pay raise up to $15 per hour. What to watch: Though historically the high turnover rate in the QSR industry has kept labor disruptions to a minimum, unions of foodservice workers have strengthened since 2009 and could take a small bite out of the sector's margins. [View news story]
jake, Wage inflation can contribute to cost-push inflation. It also increases the cost of equity.
A Critical Analysis Of Pfizer's Pipeline, Earnings And Valuation [View article]
Deep Dives, Very in depth analysis, thanks. I have always viewed PFE's acquisition of Wyeth as key to growth in biologics. PFE was using an "invest to win" strategy post-acquisition and the pipeline at one time was fairly robust. How do you see these legacy assets playing out in the next several years?
A strike by fast food workers in New York City could have broad implications with the group's lofty goal to see a 107% pay raise up to $15 per hour. What to watch: Though historically the high turnover rate in the QSR industry has kept labor disruptions to a minimum, unions of foodservice workers have strengthened since 2009 and could take a small bite out of the sector's margins. [View news story]
Unionizing fast food workers: planting the seeds of inflation.
Why Value Investors Are Going To Cash [View article]
Value investors are moving into cash because there is no value to speak of. Listen for signals from the bond market. It will provide clues of the punch-bowl drying up long before the equity party knows what hit 'em.
Agreed. Who would want this mess? Terrible liquidity, lousy balance sheet and those darn content liabilities!!! Even at $6 billion, it would not justify "enterprise value".
Chesapeake Energy: Increasing Solvency For A Long Recovery [View article]
bdoeden, I'm not here to steal the thunder of CHK bulls. However, 10 year return on equity has declined 125% while tangible common equity has only grown 30+ %.
Low gas prices caught all producers off guard, but CHK and McClendon in their land grab, employed complex and controversial financing schemes to do so. What you are seeing now is back-door de-levearging. Selling assets with a gun to your head is hardly constructive for building shareholder value.
Sounds like you have been in for the long-haul, but I do hope new management will reward you for your loyalty. Assuming CHK emerges intact, it likely will not resemble the company you purchased 12 years ago.
Alan Abelson Died: Lives On Through A Generation He Defined [View article]
A reverent tribute to Alan, thanks. If a pen can be mightier than a sword, then Mr. Albeson´s was rapier sharp indeed. It filled me with sadness to hear of his passing. JM
Currency Positioning: It Is Not About The Dollar [View article]
The inflation angle (food) reminds me of when China was turning away all those boats full of soybeans some years ago. Officials claimed the shipments were tainted with pesticides, yet the real culprit was the soy processors could not collect on their receivables.
Not only did this disrupt the supply channel, there were boatloads of spoiling soy floating at sea.
What The EU Could Learn From Margaret Thatcher [View article]
Maggie, rest in peace. Thanks for the article.
Forget About The Fed Dialing Back QE3 - Buy Bonds [View article]
Not to mention that it would not take much to smoke Treasury investors out of their snug little holes either.
Which Company Will Buy Netflix? [View article]
Keep in mind that Icahn hedged his bet with options European and American style calls/puts.
Why Value Investors Are Going To Cash [View article]
I have always regarded the bond markets as a reliable "sanguine" indicator of the economy. Equity markets being forward looking, seem confident in economic expansion, yet Treasury yields suggest bond participants are cautious or less than "sanguine".
One of the unique characteristics of our protracted low rate environment is the tight yield spreads between investment grade and junk. Low rates also lower the cost of equity and make other asset classes appear less expensive than they otherwise would.
Low rates are the tide that has lifted all boats, but this has been going on for some time now. Historically, bonds and equities don't rise together, but the last few years have been "uncharted waters" so to speak.
An example would be last Friday's really grim job numbers. I think it really surprised everyone, but it manifest with Treasury yields pushed lower.
The F5 Analyst Debacle [View article]
Bond Market Flashes Warning To Stocks: Stocks Don't Listen [View article]
A Critical Analysis Of Pfizer's Pipeline, Earnings And Valuation [View article]
Thanks for the reply. I tend to agree w/ you regarding revenue trajectory. For years, PFE seemed to be "buying" their earnings. WYE cost $68 billion, not exactly chump change. I understand PFE's desire to pursue "big molecule" strategy, but they continue to chop, whittle and "rationalize" capital allocations and R&D. This would suggest some sort of write-down or asset impairment risk going forward.
A strike by fast food workers in New York City could have broad implications with the group's lofty goal to see a 107% pay raise up to $15 per hour. What to watch: Though historically the high turnover rate in the QSR industry has kept labor disruptions to a minimum, unions of foodservice workers have strengthened since 2009 and could take a small bite out of the sector's margins. [View news story]
Wage inflation can contribute to cost-push inflation. It also increases the cost of equity.
A Critical Analysis Of Pfizer's Pipeline, Earnings And Valuation [View article]
Very in depth analysis, thanks. I have always viewed PFE's acquisition of Wyeth as key to growth in biologics. PFE was using an "invest to win" strategy post-acquisition and the pipeline at one time was fairly robust. How do you see these legacy assets playing out in the next several years?
A strike by fast food workers in New York City could have broad implications with the group's lofty goal to see a 107% pay raise up to $15 per hour. What to watch: Though historically the high turnover rate in the QSR industry has kept labor disruptions to a minimum, unions of foodservice workers have strengthened since 2009 and could take a small bite out of the sector's margins. [View news story]
Why Value Investors Are Going To Cash [View article]
Which Company Will Buy Netflix? [View article]
Chesapeake Energy: Increasing Solvency For A Long Recovery [View article]
I'm not here to steal the thunder of CHK bulls. However, 10 year return on equity has declined 125% while tangible common equity has only grown 30+ %.
Low gas prices caught all producers off guard, but CHK and McClendon in their land grab, employed complex and controversial financing schemes to do so. What you are seeing now is back-door de-levearging. Selling assets with a gun to your head is hardly constructive for building shareholder value.
Sounds like you have been in for the long-haul, but I do hope new management will reward you for your loyalty. Assuming CHK emerges intact, it likely will not resemble the company you purchased 12 years ago.