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Jason Merriam

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  • Japan's Keynesian Demise: A Cautionary Tale For Our Times [View article]
    Yes, it was adopted in '68 and began with the '69 budget.
    Aug 19 12:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Japan's Keynesian Demise: A Cautionary Tale For Our Times [View article]
    Government spending was nearly parabolic between 1996 and 2010. Homeowner equity increased between mid-70's through Q1 2006. It then declined more than 50% by Q1 2009. Meanwhile the monetary base has been parabolic since 1990.

    You raise good points re who are beneficiaries of govt. spending (i.e. social and welfare programs), but the hubris crosses both sides of the aisle. Greenspan merely enabled the consumer to do the heavy lifting and a good chunk of untapped home equity made it possible.
    Aug 16 03:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Japan's Keynesian Demise: A Cautionary Tale For Our Times [View article]
    Obviously, but a growing economy needs more money, while a shrinking economy needs less since slower growth means less money demand. Creation of money for the sake of it does not always end well.
    Aug 16 01:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coke chooses caution, sees too much risk in swallowing all of Monster [View news story]
    KO has been evolving its mandate of procuring assets capable of adding support anywhere in the supply chain. Instead of the transaction driving the endgame, the operating objective drives the endgame.
    Aug 16 01:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Japan's Keynesian Demise: A Cautionary Tale For Our Times [View article]
    Massive credit usually leads to massive debt. Aggregate demand is relative to the process creating it. Greenspan opened the spigot, but even guys like Barney Frank refused to consider the potential outcome. Greenspan argued that since business wasn't spending, why not tap homeowner equity to spur spending.

    Homes became ATM machines and the rest is history. Capital formation comes in many flavors. No act of saving ever detracts from demand, but monetarists and Keynesians both presume otherwise.

    Irony here is both sides want people to work more, have more so they can consume more. Unfortunately, you can't print your way out of this.
    Aug 16 02:39 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Japan's Keynesian Demise: A Cautionary Tale For Our Times [View article]
    Interesting observation. Japan has increasingly inverted population pyramid.
    Aug 16 01:39 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Misleading Story About George Soros's Filing [View article]
    Good article with lots of implications. Other considerations: differences between American and European style options.
    Aug 16 01:16 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Japan's Keynesian Demise: A Cautionary Tale For Our Times [View article]
    @ Rock, @Macro, @ Adam,

    If we were to leave Milton Friedman out of the discussion, might it be possible that Monetarism is a parallel version of Keynesian demand management?
    Aug 16 01:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bonds Persist In Their Warning About The U.S. Economy [View article]
    Good article. Anytime bonds and equities are at odds, I'll take cues from the bond market.
    Aug 16 12:49 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Japan's Keynesian Demise: A Cautionary Tale For Our Times [View article]
    It is worth noting that Clinton's so-called budget surplus' were the result of shifty accrual accounting (aka unified budget accounting). Problem was, both sides of the aisle bought into it.

    Japan's lost decade can be blamed on lots of issues, but not recognizing the massive losses from bad debt sitting on the books of banks and insurance companies did not help matters.

    As for "where did all the Japanese money go", they are still the 2nd largest holder of Treasuries and the yen up to now has been the currency trade of choice.
    Aug 16 12:35 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Sellers And Seeking Alpha [View article]
    Institutional traders will always have some edge over the "we's" of the world. Between their prop desks, quant angles, black-box slickness, etc. they will shake the trees hardest.

    However, retail traders have made big strides thanks to platforms that provide robust analytics and cross exchange real time execution. When you suggest being stuck with slow computers, we can assume any number of things. Having a large trading desk with lots of "staff" clearly gives any organization the flexibility to be nimble, but that does not put them always on the right side of the trade.

    As for information, institutional quality research has been available to average retail investors for quite awhile. Financial information is prolific to the point of commodity and if it is not free it is affordable to most investors.

    You seem to be focused on the inequality of the markets as an exercise in futility. The hedgies are out to screw the little guy, regulators don't seem to care, short sellers wreak havoc, and the media is accomplice to conspiracy. With options like that why leave the house?

    The playing field is far from level, but retail investors are becoming more of an equalizer. Some of the research my firm produces has been used by short sellers in determining short candidates, but does that make me complicit to an ulterior agenda?

    I would argue no, because it is likely the very same clients have used our research to conclude that another investment idea would not be a good short candidate. The discussion would be similar to the long case.

    We focus on financial statement analysis but our mission statement is to be independent, objective and accurate. The only bias I have is to get it correct more often than not.

    Disadvantage is relative. The market system is far from perfect, but opportunity is always there and on both sides of the fence.
    Aug 8 04:19 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Nu Skin Must Come Clean On Troubling Inventory Red Flags [View article]
    Fantastic call!
    Aug 6 02:49 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Goodyear Tire Earnings [View article]
    all on board,
    I'd like to think $24 is a firm level of support.
    Aug 4 03:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Intel Earnings [View article]
    @Bruce and @getgl,
    You each make good points and the latter feeds into the former. Both 22nm and 14nm chip fab are certainly catalysts, but management was clear for the need to wring out more costs.

    If the "correction continues" as getgl suggested, then the opportunity to buy INTC would be appealing.

    I think we all see the capability and innovation picture unfolding, but between ramp and the forward earnings expectations, we need to see demand as well.
    Aug 4 11:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Intel Earnings [View article]
    Thanks for your comments. Yes, I am an active trader but maintain core holdings w/in foundations of portfolios. More often than not, INTC has been a long-term position and inclusive of multiple lot purchases. Hopefully, I have made myself clear regarding the disposition of these shares as a valuation call rather than a trade.

    I realize that many INTC investors share the longer term view and that perspective requires no justification. We do "co-exist".
    Aug 4 11:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment