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Jason Merriam  

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  • Hidden Value In Inventure Foods [View article]
    Thanks for the detail on the Cap. Foods equity. Given the fraud accusations against Polhill would there be a possibility of potential acquisition related issues that could be problematic?
    Aug 2, 2014. 03:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Intel Earnings [View article]
    Intel is a fantastic company. Best of luck on your long holdings.
    Aug 2, 2014. 02:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Sellers And Seeking Alpha [View article]

    The fact that you have been engaged in dialogue on this thread in multiple comments is evidence enough that there has been no attempt to "shut down" debate. Further, no comment on this thread accuses you of stupidity.

    If you go back and re-read your own comments, you will notice a repeated pattern of assumptions that the market is manipulated, the big money players have unfair advantage over you (the little guy), and that it isallof us that don't see the big picture.

    Most of the people who have responded to your concerns have offered reasonable perspective. Nobody has talked down to you and in most cases your response has been argumentative.

    You are building your own walls and it is clear that you are unwilling to consider alternate viewpoints. It is not others who are stifling the debate and it is abundantly clear you disagree with every counterpoint made.

    You claim to want a discussion yet you won't accept what others have to say. You are confusing "we" and "us" for what should be "I". Any reasonable discussion doesn't travel down a one way street. Please accept the fact that others may not share your viewpoint. If this is your definition of "insight", it might be better if you write a book. This way, you can use third person venacular freely and allow others the choice to agree or disagree.

    Aug 2, 2014. 02:54 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Intel Earnings [View article]

    Good point and anecdotal validation of your point is evident in the cratered tablet volumes at Best Buy recently announced.
    Aug 2, 2014. 01:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Sellers And Seeking Alpha [View article]
    I can see your frustration, but it might be helpful if we narrow the accountability of your concern to this platform. Stock manipulation is an unpleasant fact of life and sometimes perpetrators are just too slick. Price manipulation has been practiced for several thousand years.

    SA is here to level the playing field so that small investors can use the open platform as an equalizer to the institutional types who have the resources to move quickly. It's the SA community which provides the tools to enable an investor to compete more effectively.

    What you call distinct unfairness is your perception of a practice that is unfair. In the general sense you are right. Getting screwed by anybody is no fun.

    SA is a platform to provide investors the best possible perspective from other investors. If you can't trust the open door platform then you should take James' advice and let the pros sail the ship.

    99.9% of us here strive to provide the highest quality content possible. There will always be potential for posers to slip through the door, but we've gotten pretty good at sniffing them out.

    We are here to help and the best way to level the playing field is by providing both sides of a story. Contrast is part of our job as authors. SA does have influence in the market but that is the objective.

    You the reader need to ascertain the facts and decide the value of the information. "Pump" is relative and if a perspective fails your sniff test keep looking for an idea that is comfortable and makes sense.

    But I urge not to paint SA with the same brush as the rest of the world. The process of discovery is your responsibility but our tool chest is well stocked.

    You have every right to question a viewpoint, but if the fear of conspiracy is going to follow you like a ball and chain you won't get far. The more you learn the more likely you will avoid trouble.
    Aug 1, 2014. 08:17 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Sellers And Seeking Alpha [View article]
    I agree with your observations. That's why investors need to do their homework and kick the tires. Short isn't evil but it is a contrast to the more familiar comfort zone of an inspiring long thesis. What the variant viewpoint provides to an investor is the knowledge base of the polar different perspective.

    it's our job as authors to communicate the perspective as accurately and as convincingly as possible. Contrast gives an investor something to chew on and hopefully the skills gained from interpreting the message will make for a better outcome.

    Investors should not fear the short take, use it as a tool. If you believe one side of the story is absurd then your conviction should be drawn to the other more impressionable viewpoint. Just make sure you examine all the angles.

    If you want to see real analyst bias in action just read the stuff put out by research shops who are related to investment banks. The dog and pony shows these guys put on make everyone else look respectable. these guys have gotten away with murder for years and even the lubrigous Dodd-Frank law woudn't touch it.

    SA is as intended: read, learn, invest. There's value to each side of a story and over time an investor will learn how to use it effectively. SA for their part have done a fabulous job evolving the platform so that this discovery can be possible.
    Aug 1, 2014. 06:34 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Intel Earnings [View article]
    This would imply that absent any near term catalysts, shares could be range bound for a while. Yes?
    Aug 1, 2014. 05:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Intel Earnings [View article]
    There will always be product cycle ratioalizations to contend with but management is competent enough to develop the oportunity. They were late to the mobile space but they have the ability to advance these initiatives with scale. But, it will evolve and Q2 results are good enought to hope that these trends continue. But, first they have to build the mouse trap and then get people to buy it. My concern would be that demand is improving but lumpy in the product mix and adoption.
    Aug 1, 2014. 05:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Intel Earnings [View article]
    I'll try to answer your questions. I'm not assigning valuation per se, but am taking the point that current price has advanced more than the change in fundamentals.

    It is impossible compare INTC to a Twitter or a FB simply because they are momentum names in a sector that is reliant on monetizing advertising. So, yes I have a good idea of my existence and am comfortable to share this you.

    I don't know what you mean by foolish financial metrics and I have always considered the earnings quality to be good. It is likely the market will provide that lower price so sit tight and you'll probably get it.
    Aug 1, 2014. 05:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Intel Earnings [View article]
    I think you are correct. Long-term view is good and Q2 came with the wrapping of ebullience. Although Q2 results were impressive, it's been a while since I 've seen valuations advance as dramatically in response to a beat like they had.

    Execution and ramp will be key and demand will be driver. However, cycle certainty is never guaranteed and tech managers know this all to well. The fact that foundry capacity is under utilized illustrates this point.
    The capacity is in place and only ingredient missing is enough demand to absorb the capacity.

    i would agree that languish may be a good term as the catalysts for growth need to plat out. The market is pricing this expectation into the stock and investors will be looking for the fundamentals to keep apace with valuation.

    Intel does not carry the rich multiple as it did in past and I think many investors view the co. as a dividend play. It's not a mature growth story yet, but the expansion phase growth is behind them.
    Aug 1, 2014. 05:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why It's Hard To Buy The Hershey Company [View article]
    I hear where you're coming from, but margin risk is a legitimate concern. Cocoa spikes are similar to any other soft or agricultural commodity. What is unusual is that we haven't seen increases like that in three years.

    While I agree that the discretionary impulse of chocolate or coffee holds more appeal than a bag of chips price sensitivity is likely to be a factor. You and I will keep buying chocolate "'cause we got's to have it". But, if the offsets between price hikes and rising input costs impact volume (either by better timing of customer purchase orders, or tighter cost controls) this could potentially affect market share as well.

    I realize chocolate will be rationalized regardless of what is in the consumers wallet. However, consumers react to food price hikes either by changing their shopping behavior or by holding out for the discount mechanism to be offered by a retailer.

    Shoppers have gotten pretty savvy about holding out and grocers realize that their already slim margins will get slimmer unless they move inventory.

    As this pertains to chocolate prices, the price inflation is significant. Perhaps consumers will keep the jag on regardless of cost simply because it is as you say a treat.

    It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

    Aug 1, 2014. 05:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Question On Micron's Pullback: Would Samsung Actually Want To Help Apple? [View article]
    Brett, it would get back to your thesis of price discipline. At what cost does growing market share come? They will have to balance capital productivity with demand so that operating margins aren't line-itemed to death. If the demand is legitimate, then your theory of price discipline is doable.

    However, if cycle assumptions become too back-loaded or sequential burps manifest as excess inventory builds, might there be a risk of margin contraction?

    Each of your scenarios are plausible and your article is an interesting take as to how it might play out. Nice work.
    Aug 1, 2014. 03:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Intel Earnings [View article]
    Points well taken. You have made a good case for rationalizing the inventory of your gadgets. My takeaway is that some are underutilized while others serve ancillary purpose.

    If you're married look in your wife's closet. How many pairs of shoes does she have? Unless she changes footware multiple time a day, the inventory of supply exceeds demand.

    Same priciple applies to your gadgets.
    Aug 1, 2014. 02:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Intel Earnings [View article]
    Consensus forecasts are indeed optimistic and management guidance seems to support that thesis. However, it's not too often that valuation runs too forward of the fundamentals. I believe recent price support is the function of overwhelming sentiment.

    Not that it isn't deserved, but will the good news continue to come? This is a valuation call and price mix and higher margin sales will need to keep pace and or show sequential improvement to keeo the stock up
    Aug 1, 2014. 02:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Intel Earnings [View article]
    There is no doubt about future opportunities at INTC. Execution and denad will be key drivers going forward. Capex may be necessary for aligning fabrication initiatives although they have benefit under used capacity.

    In event IBM poses a risk to servers, then spending is conceivable there too.
    Buyback could be victim to available cash should net dampen.

    There is nothing to say future growth won't be realized, but at this point in time valuation more than prices in even near term expectations. Analysts were in herd with PT raises but you can expect these to be tweaked depending on metric used.

    Channel check is lways subject to order flow and variances are far more noticeable than in years past.
    Aug 1, 2014. 02:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment