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Jason Merriam's  Instablog

Jason Merriam is author and developer of the innovative Merriam Report www.merriamreport.com providing unique financial analysis based on the "dual-cash flow" methodology. An active investor for 35 years, he is also founder and president of Merriam Investor Services since 1990. MIS... More
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Merriam Investor Services
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  • Stock Market Needs Lubrication (and a reality check)
    Dow & S&P 500
    Another catalyst in this rally has been a resurgence of the “whisper” number. It’s provided pundits and fund managers plenty of yodeling room thanks in no small part to analyst estimates being ratcheted down too much. Keep in mind it was less than one year ago that analysts estimates were too high.  So, like any sensible analyst who wants to remain gainfully employed, its better to low-ball than get your head ripped off.
     
    However, when it comes to value and earnings quality, these two vital pieces of the puzzle remain MIA. Until we see evidence of top-line growth (more paying customers), this rally is based on not much more than cost-cutting to bolster the bottom-line. 
     
    That said, it is understandable that fund managers have been chasing performance, especially after the pummeling they received this past two years.  Then what?
    What other threats lurk about? There’s plenty, but 10 plus percent unemployment isn’t exactly a consumer confidence builder. Lagging indicator or not, the market is pricing in too much optimism regarding payrolls. In addition, all the bank and lender bailouts (TARP, TALP...HELP!) assumed we would not exceed 10%.

    While we believe the dollar is likely due for a technical bounce, it’s hard to make a case that it’s undervalued. We’re printing too much of the stuff for that to happen.
    If you want a flight to safety, why not consider inflation linked securities. One CEF we own is the Western / Claymore Inflation Linked Securities (WIA). It’s a closed-end fund, with about 85% of portfolio in TIPS. The fund is leveraged (22.04%), but average credit quality is AA+. Expense ratio is about 1.21%, but it currently trades at a 5% discount to NAV and distribution rate is presently 3.69%. Another plus: it pays monthly.
    Disclosure: Long WIA
    Nov 22 10:27 pm | Link | Comment!
  • Earning’s Quality: AAPL vs. RIMM
    We were more than surprised a couple of weeks ago with all the hoopla over Apple’s “blowout” quarter. Sales were up in (most) every device, app, download, etc. etc.  For Apple, the world is truly its oyster and if one didn’t know better, you’d think there was a pearl in their oyster shell. 
     
    More »
    Nov 05 10:25 am | Link | Comment!
  • Q3 Earnings Quality: Dual Cash-Flow and Accrual Evaluation
    As earnings season begins in earnest we expect to see a wide variety of hits and misses. Alcoa, one of the biggies, got the show rolling with a “beat” on their Q3 numbers. 
     
    However, CEO Klaus Kleinfeld made it clear that cost-cutting and other actions contributed heavily to cash positions and profits. In addition, the company cited improved aluminum demand by the auto makers.
    More »
    Tags: LNN, RIMM, IBM, WEN, DLX, THS, ATI, VAR, AAPL, EK
    Oct 10 09:17 pm | Link | Comment!
  • Keep an eye on Harris Corp.

    Shares of communications & info technology firm Harris Corp. (HRS) got clobbered almost 8% on Monday.  Investors appear to be expecting less than rosy 4th qtr. numbers when the company reports on Tues. Aug. 12th after the market close.

    Their exposure to the military and defense sector may have some on edge, particularly with avionic contracts and the perception these budgets will be slashed.  Mr. Obama himself said there was too much pork in several jet-fighter programs, so expect some fiscal hatchet work in the fluffier projects.  

    However, given the world we live in (now), the need for advanced communications technology will always be there.  What makes Harris attractive to us though, is its diversity of businesses and high quality patents and intellectual property assets.

    More »
    Tags: HRS
    Aug 12 11:47 am | Link | Comment!
  • Huron Consulting Group's Crash: Red flags galore

    Some say the consulting biz is the only biz (to be in), providing the advice given to clients is appropriate, ethical and legal.  In contrast, anything which rose from the ashes of Arthur Anderson might, to some, have the taint of damaged goods...or, at least be viewed dubiously.
    The restatement "bombshell" Huron's management dropped on Monday was a shocker indeed.  In a post Sarbanes-Oxley world, who would have thought accountants-who-provide-expertise-to-other-accountants might be so wrong with their own ledgers?
    Granted, the audit committee was right to spill the gruel (better late than never), but why now and where the hell was the board?  More importantly, were there any clues in the financial statements leading up to this fiasco which might have flashed warning flags to investors? 
    We don't follow this company, but much of the current hubbub involves the treatment of "misreported" costs related to acquisitions.  With that in mind, let's start with Goodwill.
    Goodwill is an intangible asset and subject to annual impairment testing.   Determining the value of goodwill is hazy at best, when you consider it's inclusive to patents, brand names, etc. above and beyond book value.  Thus, consider goodwill as the cost of an investment in excess of book value.
    HURN

    More »
    Aug 04 06:46 pm | Link | Comment!
  • Earnings, what earnings? - Just show me the cash-flow
    The concept of real profit growth or earnings growth in this environment is an oxymoron Many a recession has come and gone over the years, but this one is tainted by ghosts of loose notional values (think derivatives) and excess leverage. 
     
    However, some management teams are better than others when it comes to earnings quality, cash flow and the clarity of accounting used in presenting them. 
    More »
    Jul 29 08:35 pm | Link | Comment!
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AAPL, ATI, CTAS, CYT, DLX, EK, HRS, HTZ, HURN, IBM, LNN, MOT, PSYS, RIMM, RSG, SKF, THS, VAR, WEN, WFC, WIA, WM
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