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Jason Napodano, CFA

 
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  • Acadia Remains On Track With Pimavanserin Program
    Wed, May. 7 ACAD 51 Comments

    Summary

    • NDA for pimavanserin in PDP expected to be filed late 2014. This would put a PDUFA late 2015.
    • Phase 2 program in ADP, a significant value-driver in our opinion, continues on plan, with data expected late 2015.
    • Our DCF model pegs fair-value between $25-30 per share, making the stock attractive for long-term investors at today's price of $17.
  • Nuvo Research Offers Low-Risk With Big Upside
       • Tue, May. 6 NRIFF 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Nuvo Research, Inc. is a specialty pharmaceutical company with a diverse portfolio of marketed products (Pennsaid®, Pennsaid® 2%, Synera®, Pliaglis®).
    • Beside the marketed products, the company also has an immunotherapy treatment (WF10) for allergic rhinitis in Phase 2 testing.
    • We feel that Nuvo has tremendous upside. We believe investor should ‘Buy’ the shares today, and our target is $7.50 per share.
  • AntriaBio Looks To Corner The Long-Acting Insulin Market
       • Tue, May. 6 ANTB, ANTBD Comment!

    Summary

    • Long-acting insulin is currently dominated by Sanofi's Lantus. Thanks to once daily dosing, Lantus sales totaled nearly $8 billion in 2013.
    • AntriaBio is taking a unique approach to developing the world's first once weekly insulin therapy.
    • Moving from once daily to once weekly dosing has the potential to capture 30-40% of the $10 billion long-acting insulin market.
    • We believe AntriaBio shares are attractive today based on the potential for AB101.
  • Durect Shares Should Double In The Next Year
       • Sat, May. 3 DRRX 12 Comments

    Summary

    • Pfizer is progressing nicely with Remoxy. Remoxy alone is worth $1.50 per share.
    • Other assets such as POSIDUR, ELADUR, Relday, and ALZET and LACTLE are significantly under-appreciated by investors.
    • DURECT has enough cash to fund operations into 2015.
    • We believe the stock is worth $3.00 per share.
  • Omni Bio Raises Cash, Wastes No Time Getting Back To Work
       • Fri, May. 2 OMBP 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Raise financing of up to $3M allows company to move forward with pipeline.
    • Investigator and outside sponsored studies could help generate revenue for Omni Bio.
    • Fc-AAT looks like a potential blockbuster drug..
  • InVivo's Day Has Arrived
       • Wed, Apr. 30 NVIV 87 Comments

    Summary

    • Initiation of the pilot study is very good news for InVivo investors.
    • We see the Neuro-Spinal Scaffolding as a $500 million device.
    • Some of our previous concerns, such as starting the trial, manufacturing delays, and IP have been eased.
    • Our primary existing concern is on long-term funding, as the cash position is down to less than six months.
    • We are clearly warming back up to the InVivo story. Recent conversations with new CEO, Mark Perrin have certainly helped raise visibility.
  • Neuralstem's Cell Therapy Is Working, And This Is Just The Beginning
       • Tue, Apr. 22 CUR 100 Comments

    Summary

    • Recently published data on NSI-566 from a Phase 1 study demonstrates clear signs of efficacy in a select patient population.
    • Patient blogs from the ongoing Phase 2 study provide additional anecdotal evidence of efficacy.
    • We believe NSI-566 is a $2+ billion drug in ALS.
    • Neuralstem recently initiated a Phase 1 trial with NSI-566 in spinal cord injury. We view this as an incremental $2+ billion opportunity.
    • We believe the shares will be above $6 by the end of the year 2014.
  • Expecting A Breakout Year For OxySure
       • Thu, Apr. 17 OXYS 7 Comments

    Summary

    • Revenue growth in 2013 was up 567%.
    • CE Mark in Europe could double sales in 2014.
    • Expect strong military orders later this year.
    • Stock trading at less than 5x our 2016 EPS estimate.
  • Analyst Interview: Cynapsus Therapeutics Still A Top Pick
    Wed, Apr. 16 CYNAF 51 Comments

    Summary

    • The following is a transcript of an interview with Zacks' Sr. Biotech analyst Jason Napodano.
    • The recent financing pulled in $23+ million in cash and looks to be enough to fund operations and development of APL-130277 through the NDA filing.
    • Jason continues to believe Cynapsus shares represent a compelling value for investors.
    • Target price is $2.15 per share, or 250% upside from today.
  • Immune Pharma Tackling Orphan Disease Bullous Pemphigoid
       • Tue, Apr. 15 IMNP 25 Comments

    Summary

    • Bertilimumab is a first-in-class fully human monoclonal antibody that is directed against eotaxin-1, a potent chemoattractant and activator of eosinophils.
    • Eosinophils are implicated in the inflammatory changes seen in various inflammatory disorders such as inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), asthma, and dermatological diseases such as bullous pemphigoid (BP).
    • BP is an orphan dermatological disease that affects approximately 12,000 people in the U.S. each year.
    • Eotaxin-1 plays a role in the recruitment of inflammatory cells to skin lesions in patients with BP and represents a novel therapeutic target for this disease.
  • Still Several Reasons To Remain Long Amarantus
    Editors' Pick • Wed, Apr. 9 AMBS 46 Comments

    Summary

    • Balance sheet and cash position significantly improved over the past six months.
    • Management dramatically enhanced with several new hires.
    • Guidance continues to be LymPro CLIA launch late 2014.
    • Eltoprazine Phase 2b studies in LID and ADHD being planned.
    • Stock worth 20-25c.
  • Plenty Of Upside Remains In ULURU, Inc.
       • Fri, Apr. 4 ULUR 11 Comments

    Summary

    • Below we provide a detailed review of the fourth quarter results and future business prospects for ULURU, Inc.
    • We believe Altrazeal has the right combination of cost-benefit in the treatment of chronic wounds to be a $100 million drug by 2020.
    • ULURU, Inc. pulled in $2.3 million in cash between January and April 2014.
    • The shares are attractively valued and we see meaningful upside left in the story.
  • Time To Back Up The Truck On Cytomedix?
       • Fri, Apr. 4 CMXI 12 Comments

    Summary

    • We believe AutoloGel has peak sales in the area of $150 million.
    • Angel has peak sales in the area of $75 million.
    • Data on ALD-401 in the RECOVER-Stroke trial is coming in early May 2014.
    • The shares are highly attractive for long-term investors.
  • A Nice Buying Opportunity In Tonix Pharma
       • Wed, Apr. 2 TNXP 41 Comments

    Summary

    • We strongly disagree with conclusions from a negative article on Tonix published on Seeking Alpha last week.
    • Our own valuation modeling pegs Tonix's fair value between $16 and $18 per share.
    • Below we provide a counterpoint to the three key assumptions from the negative article and outline our belief as to why TNX-102SL will be a commercial success.
  • Positive Clinical And Commercial Updates From Avita Medical
       • Thu, Mar. 27 AVMXY 67 Comments

    Summary

    • Revenue growth was up 35% in the previous quarter, driven by revised and refocused marketing effort.
    • Compassionate use of ReCell in burns/scalds is enormous opportunity - IDE approval coming soon.
    • Potential for non-dilutive cash in the next few months from selling the respiratory businesses.
    • Data from RESTORE and vitiligo clinical studies coming in 2015.
    • Incredible cheap valuation - modeling yields potential for 100% upside.
  • Checking In On ARCA Biopharma
       • Tue, Mar. 25 ABIO 10 Comments

    Summary

    • The company's Phase 2b/3 Clinical Trial, GENETIC-AF, should start very soon.
    • ARCA has cash to make it into early 2016.
    • The development strategy for Gencaro makes sense based on our analysis of the previous data.
    • The shares are attractive for long-term investors.
  • Weighing The Pros And Cons Of InVivo Therapeutics
       • Fri, Mar. 21 NVIV 41 Comments

    Summary

    • InVivo is guiding to starting the IDE trial in the second quarter 2014.
    • Manufacturing issues have been a reason for the delay until now.
    • Investors are looking for answers on this issue, right now visibility is low.
    • Valuation looks expensive, but our model assumes no upside contribution given the low visibility.
  • 4 Reasons Aastrom Looks Good Right Now
       • Thu, Mar. 20 ASTM 36 Comments

    Summary

    • Valuation is extremely attractive for long-term position.
    • The company has cash (and access to more cash).
    • Near-term catalysts include P3 REVIVE data in June 2014, ixCELL data in mid-2015.
  • Tonix TNX-201 Ready For Clinical Development
       • Thu, Mar. 20 TNXP 31 Comments

    Summary

    • Recent Pre-IND meeting paves the way for P1 study to start Q3-2014.
    • TNX-201 has unique profile that could allow peak sales of $300 million.
    • TNX-201 provides nice diversification and upside to the Tonix story.
  • CAPTURE Data Should Help Drive Soltamox Sales At DARA Bio
       • Sat, Mar. 15 DARA 12 Comments

    Summary

    • Analysis of CAPTURE Poster presented below.
    • Results are consistent with our financial model.
    • Growing sales of Soltamox should have positive effect on the other five products at DARA.
  • Put This Specialty Pharma In Your Portfolio
       • Fri, Mar. 14 DEPO 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Management has done a fantastic job of building a specialty pharma business.
    • Revenue growth in 2014 should be over 50%.
    • On a peer-valuation, the stock is attractively valued. Target is $16.
  • Bertilimumab Is A Potential Blockbuster Drug For Immune Pharma
       • Wed, Mar. 12 IMNP 7 Comments

    Summary

    • Bertilimumab has significant scientific merit in IBD and BP.
    • We see potential blockbuster sales for the drug.
    • Immune Pharma shares are vastly under-valued, our target is $9 per share.
    • Company just raised $11.6M and will seek NASDAQ uplisting shortly.
  • What The Market Is Missing About LabStyle Innovations
       • Fri, Mar. 7 DRIO 15 Comments

    Summary

    • Dario should be launched in the next few weeks.
    • The market is missing an enormous potential revenue stream with software and data.
    • We see the stock fairly-valued at $4.00, which is over 100% upside.
  • Pozen Looking Very Attractive As FDA Decision Nears
       • Thu, Mar. 6 POZN 30 Comments

    Summary

    • FDA decision on PA325 is on April 25, 2014.
    • Vimovo looks positioned for growth.
    • Stock is extremely cheap based on future cash flows.
    • Potentially additional cash distributions in 2015.
  • Titan Looking Attractive After Positive FDA Meeting
       • Thu, Mar. 6 TTNP 12 Comments

    Summary

    • Braeburn pays for necessary clinical work prior to re-filing in 2015.
    • Clinical study should be a slam-dunk to hit.
    • Titan stock offers 125% upside to my DCF target.
  • Encouraging Recent Developments At OxySure Systems
       • Tue, Mar. 4 OXYS 15 Comments
  • An Update On Acadia Pharmaceuticals
       • Sat, Mar. 1 ACAD 35 Comments
  • Buy Cipher Pharma Before Someone Else Buys Them
       • Fri, Feb. 28 CPHMF 13 Comments
  • DARA: Next Steps After Awarding Of Orphan Designation For KRN5500
       • Thu, Feb. 27 DARA 23 Comments
  • Ico Therapeutics: Near-Term Catalyst Presents Enormous Upside
       • Wed, Feb. 26 ICOTF 25 Comments
  • Can GlassesOff Make You A Better Ballplayer?
    Thu, Feb. 20 GLSO 9 Comments
  • Neuralstem Phase 1 Data Gives Hope In ALS
       • Tue, Feb. 18 CUR 39 Comments