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Jason Napodano, CFA  

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  • Corbus Calls Warrants, Pushes Forward In Three Phase 2 Trials With Resunab [View article]
    I think the funding from the CFF is huge. The NIH less so, but free money is always welcome in the biotech sector.
    Jul 29, 2015. 03:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Corbus Calls Warrants, Pushes Forward In Three Phase 2 Trials With Resunab [View article]
    CD, Yes, there is absolutely competition in the CF space, but Resunab has a unique mechanism of action that allows the drug to: 1) target all CF patients, not just ones with a certain genetic mutation, and 2) be used in addition to transport corrector proteins or antibiotics.

    When I look at the entire US CF market - around 30,000 patients - I think Resunab has the potential to be used by the vast majority either as a monotherapy or on top of standard-of-care drugs like antibiotics (aztreonam or TOBI) and corticosteroids (dexa or pred), or even targeted new therapies like Kalydeco or lumacaftor. If Resunab proves to be safe and effective, and can lower the standard dose of prednisone , it could save CF patients from some nasty side effects. It may even replace steroids depending on how effective it is.

    CF is a huge market. Based on my best guess, a drug like Resunab could cost upwards of $225,000 per year. There are 30,000 CF patients in the US. That's a $6.8 billion market! Plenty of room for everyone, especially Corbus with only a $75 million market cap as of today.
    Jul 29, 2015. 10:17 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Neuralstem Wins Patent Infringement Case Vs. StemCell, Inc.; Moves Forward In Spinal Cord Injury [View article]
    If you read my article from after the Phase 2 ALS data, I explain why I reduced my price target from $6 to $3.50. Nevertheless, I think it is worth $3.50 today and thus the near 100% upside in the opportunity.
    Jul 26, 2015. 03:48 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Neuralstem Wins Patent Infringement Case Vs. StemCell, Inc.; Moves Forward In Spinal Cord Injury [View article]
    Hmm... not sure why I said that. Must have been thinking one thing and typed another. I'll edit.
    Jul 26, 2015. 03:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Neuralstem Wins Patent Infringement Case Vs. StemCell, Inc.; Moves Forward In Spinal Cord Injury [View article]
    All biotech stocks are risky investments, but that doesn't mean you shouldn't invest in them. It just means you need to understand the risk and be smart about your decisions. My advice is that you read up the preclinical data with NSI-566 because based on your comments you are not familiar with it.
    Jul 26, 2015. 03:46 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nasdaq-Listed Pieris Offers Enormous Potential [View article]
    Yep!
    Jul 19, 2015. 09:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Pozen And Tribute To Merge, Form New Aralez Pharma Plc [View article]
    I don't wonder why Sanofi backed out of Yosprala. I wonder why they were interested in the drug in the first place. It's not a "big pharma" drug. It is much better suited in the hands of a specialty player.
    Jul 15, 2015. 12:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • MabVax: An Underappreciated Cancer Immunotherapy Play [View article]
    Give how "hot" NASDAQ up-listings has been so far in 2015, I would expect MBVX to move rather quickly to the NASDAQ. They need the stock over $4 per share, so they can either reverse or wait until they have positive data.
    Jul 15, 2015. 09:58 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Epirus Signs Profit-Sharing Collaboration With PolPharma Group [View article]
    $15... I'll submit a correction.
    Jul 15, 2015. 09:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pozen And Tribute To Merge, Form New Aralez Pharma Plc [View article]
    I think for Pozen, Tribute represented a way to invert (to Ireland) and acquire a sales force with an existing business that is generating positive adjusted EBITDA. It's not cheap to build a sales force. It's also not very efficient to go out and promote one drug, so by acquiring Tribute, Pozen gets a sales force in both the U.S. and Canada and gets some nice products to add to the bag as they detail Yosprala. If you read my article, you see that I've laid out an interesting strategy for the company - CV focus in the U.S. with Yosprala and Fibricor and pain/headache focused in Canada with Durela, Cambia, and potentially both Vimovo and Treximet.

    I think what also became obvious to Pozen was that they can't keep partnering their drugs with big pharma companies only to gets screwed. The Treximet deal with Glaxo bombed, as did Vimovo with AstraZeneca. J&J return the rights to MT400 and Sanofi returned the rights to Yosprala. Pozen has a history of developing niche drugs and then partnering them with companies not committed to selling them. Take a look at what Horizon has done with Vimovo in the U.S. or Perinex with Treximet. I think Pozen is seeing the success these companies have had, along with other specialty pharma success stories like Depomed (in the U.S.) and Cipher (in Canada) and thinking - we can do that too, and our fate will be in our hands.

    For Pozen shareholders, the stock was pretty much stuck at $8-10, and even after Yosprala approval it was debatable just how much the royalties were going to prop up the shares vs. the potential dividends the company was planning on paying-out. Biotech investors don't typically get excited about dividends! So for Pozen it was move forward with a deal like this or tread water for the next 5-6 years. I think Plachetka was happy to sit back and collect his dividend (he was a big shareholder) but this new management was clearly brought into to build and then sell. Again, look at Horizon and Depomed as examples.

    Best of luck,
    Jason
    Jul 14, 2015. 08:15 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ADMA Biologics Shares Possibly Worth A Triple On FDA Approval Of RI-002 [View article]
    Make me an offer... lol
    Jul 9, 2015. 08:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Deep Look At Depomed's Billion-Dollar Bet On Nucynta [View article]
    Horizon Pharma makes $3B hostile "all-stock" bid to acquire Depomed - $29.25 per share. Depomed says 'No Thanks'.

    http://bit.ly/1CXWZl3

    As I noted above, I think the stock could be worth $32 in a year, so Horizon's offer is close, but I think they will ultimately raise it by another 10-20%.
    Jul 7, 2015. 08:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Newly NASDAQ-Listed Cynapsus Looks Like A Potential Big Winner [View article]
    Have you ever seen a press release where a company said, "We plan on sitting on our cash and doing nothing while we wait around for a buy-out offer" ????
    Jul 7, 2015. 08:05 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Deep Look At Depomed's Billion-Dollar Bet On Nucynta [View article]
    DEPO acquired only the U.S. rights to the drug. Certainly the potential for Nucynta / ER exists outside the U.S., but that's not part of DEPO's equation right now.
    Jul 6, 2015. 02:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Newly NASDAQ-Listed Cynapsus Looks Like A Potential Big Winner [View article]
    Sorry about the typos. I'm terrible at proof-reading. Usually I have one of my associates, David or Nisha, proofread my stuff but they were both too busy working on other reports. I'll make sure to have someone proof in the future.

    Jason
    Jun 22, 2015. 02:04 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
1,030 Comments
1,248 Likes