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Jason Napodano, CFA

 
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  • Depomed Acquires Nucynta Franchise From J&J [View article]
    The royalty to Grunenthal has not been disclosed. DEPO's CFO said on the conference call that he expected the product to have around 25% CoGS including the royalty. I would assume a product like this has a CoGS of 5% or less, so that would make the potential royalty to Grunenthal around 20%.

    That's just my guess. I think a range of 15-25% probably covers in based on what they said on the call.

    Jason
    Jan 20, 2015. 05:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Depomed Acquires Nucynta Franchise From J&J [View article]
    That's a good question! I don't have a good answer...

    Tapentadol is a mu-opioid agonist with potency somewhere between tamarol and morphine. It's a Schedule II drug. That being said, I don't think it has anywhere near the high that oxycodone or fentanyl. Back when the drug was being developed by Grunenthal and J&J they hoped it would get Schedule III based on preclinical animal data showing low-abuse when compared to oxycodone and morphine. I think the FDA suck it in II along with all other opioids just to be sure all the same restrictions applied when prescribed. I'll reach out to DEPO management and ask this question. Will post a comment if I get a response.

    Jason
    Jan 20, 2015. 03:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Auspex Firing On All Cylinders [View article]
    I disagree. I think the results of the Phase 3 TD study mid-year is pretty major.
    Jan 15, 2015. 08:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Auspex Firing On All Cylinders [View article]
    I need to do more work on the valuation for deuterium-levodopa and the other pipeline product. Currently have zero value in my model for them. Also, that QTc data really helps add to the differentiated profile of the drug. Not sure that changes my sales forecasts much but certainly another check mark in the "pro" column for Auspex.

    Jason
    Jan 14, 2015. 09:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sandoz success powers Epirus Bio [View news story]
    EPRS quickly approaching my $8 target set just last month >> http://bit.ly/1zWX99M
    Jan 8, 2015. 12:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 15 Biotech Names For 2015 [View article]
    NBIX / ABBV = Positive Phase 3 data from Violet Petal this morning!!

    http://yhoo.it/1zWq2mE

    That was No. 7 on my list above.

    Jason
    Jan 8, 2015. 08:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 15 Biotech Names For 2015 [View article]
    It's good news for TNXP. This was the endpoint in the Savella Phase 3 trials and what TNXP hit with statistical significance in their Phase 2b BESTFIT trial. TNXP has never disclosed the raw data from BESTFIT, only that the p-value was 0.03. So while it is good news that they can use this endpoint for their Phase 3, we really need to see the data from BESTFIT before we have a sense of just how effective TNX-102SL is. Cypress / Forest showed in their Phase 3 trials - which enrolled > 2000 patients mind you - that 25-27% of milnacipran patients achieved > 30% reduction in composite pain vs. only around 16-19% for the placebo. What I would like to see from BESTFIT once the company presented the data at a medical conference is a placebo response rate similar to the milnacipran Phase 3 (so somewhere around 15-20%) and the TNX-102SL data north of 25%. Savella is not a terribly large selling drug - it's only around $100 million.

    Hope that helps in your assessment of TNXP.

    Best,

    Jason
    Jan 6, 2015. 10:21 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brainstorm Takes Major Leap Forward In Battle Vs. ALS [View article]
    I think BCLI will explore multi-dosing in future studies. It's possible that you could receive NurOwn every 3-6 months and sustain a "slower decline" or even stabilization, but that will need to be proved in the next wave of studies. They also need to get the cost down and cryopreserve the cells - and issue with any autologous treatment. CUR looks interesting because the cells graft and could, theoretically, deliver a much longer effect. That being said, there's no reason why an ALS patient can do both!
    Jan 6, 2015. 12:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 15 Biotech Names For 2015 [View article]
    I still like IMNP, but because they took longer than I expected to start their P2 trials things have been pushed back a bit. No immediate near-term catalysts and probably no data on bertilimumab until 2016. The CEO published a great "shareholder update" today you might want to read. The most interesting thing is the potential to partner Amiket for upfront cash. Only since I can't predict when that will happen, I left it out of this article.
    Jan 6, 2015. 12:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 15 Biotech Names For 2015 [View article]
    Was NEVER a fan of MNKD. I have never written anything on the company because I don't believe in the product. I think it will be a flop.
    Jan 6, 2015. 11:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 15 Biotech Names For 2015 [View article]
    Getting some questions about $CUR vs. $BCLI.

    Here are my thoughts on BCLI >> http://bit.ly/13WjLOC

    Jason
    Jan 6, 2015. 09:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 15 Biotech Names For 2015 [View article]
    Hi Dutch... It's because biotechs need every drop of cash they can find to fund development of their drugs. Very few have positive free cash flow, and even less have enough free cash flow that they can return cash back to shareholders in the form of a dividend.

    Jason
    Jan 6, 2015. 08:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 15 Biotech Names For 2015 [View article]
    NWBO is not my cup of tea... and I don't even drink tea. I drink beer.
    Jan 6, 2015. 08:18 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 15 Biotech Names For 2015 [View article]
    Great read!! Keep positing APRIL!!!
    Jan 6, 2015. 08:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 15 Biotech Names For 2015 [View article]
    They are not going to lose. It's a big waste of both company's time. STEM should drop it.
    Jan 6, 2015. 08:16 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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