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Jason Napodano, CFA  

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  • Corbus Gets $5 Million From Cystic Fibrosis Foundation [View article]
    SA is still showing the ticker as OTC:CRBP, but they uplisted to the NASDAQ last week. Just wanted to point that out.
    Jason
    Apr 23, 2015. 11:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tyme's Radical Approach To Fighting Cancer Could Be A Blockbuster [View article]
    I agree with this assessment ynotcookit. The number of mice that have been cured of cancer over the past decade is staggering. I went into the my analysis of TYMI pretty skeptical of the story. However, as pilot data go, this is about as good as it gets. It's also not hard to start modeling "billion-dollars" in sale rather quickly if these results hold in later stage, multi-center trials. The TYMI pilot data is single-center, no control. So it's good to be skeptical of the results. However, if they can reproduce this in a well-controlled Phase 2 study, I think we are on the cusp of a new strategy in how cancer is treated.

    Best,
    Jason
    Apr 21, 2015. 02:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tonix Pharmaceuticals: Four Data-Based Valuations Of A Deeply Underappreciated Pharmaceutical Company [View article]
    The argument to support failure might be Transcept's horrible attempt with Intermezzo, a low-dose SL formulation of Ambien.

    Arguments to support Jeff's position that this is a game-changer might be J&J's Concerta vs. methylphenidate HCl.

    I dont want to be misrepresented here. I'm not a Tonix bear. In fact, I like the stock and think it's worth $14 per share. I just think Jeff's assessment of the opportunity and valuation is wildly out of touch with reality.
    Apr 21, 2015. 11:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tonix Pharmaceuticals: Four Data-Based Valuations Of A Deeply Underappreciated Pharmaceutical Company [View article]
    $15 per pill is about what Lyrica and Cymbalta cost. That is actually less than pain medications like Duexis and Vimovo. The $15 per pill is a fair assumption. The market penetration is not. SL formulation is nice, but it does not take the market from $75M to $6.2B (like MedGuy103 said). I think this is a $500M drug, perhaps more when you add in PTSD, but it's not a billion-dollar franchise.

    I believe Tonix is undervalued today at $6.50 per share. I think $10 is reasonable by year end and $14 is very doable on positive data from BESTFIT or AtEASE. But please do not buy this stock because you think it's going to $100 (or $236), that's just simply not going to happen.
    Apr 21, 2015. 09:57 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tonix Pharmaceuticals: Four Data-Based Valuations Of A Deeply Underappreciated Pharmaceutical Company [View article]
    TNX102SL is a sublingual (dissolves in your mouth) formulation of cyclobenzaprine, a muscle relaxant sold by Merck as Flexeril. The standard Rx is 10 mg oral tablet. The drug was first used in 1961 and received FDA approval at Merck for muscle spasms in 1977. It is commonly used off-label for fibromyalgia.

    Merck tried to get a 5 mg tablet OTC in the 90's and the FDA said no because while they felt the drug was safe enough, they did not feel that muscle spasms was something they wanted patients self-medicating for. Merck divested the drug to J&J, who then sold the rights to Cephalon. It is one of the most commonly prescribed drugs in the USA.

    Cyclobenzaprine 5 mg is available OTC in the EU, UK, and Canada. It remains Rx only in the US at doses between 5 and 30 mg. TNX102SL is 2.8 mg. While I think there are conveniences and safety features of TNX102SL over generic 5 mg cyclobenzaprine, I can absolutely guarantee this drug will not produce sales of $6.2 billion. That is an insane estimate. It would put the drug as the best-selling CNS drug of all time, better than Lyrica, Cymbalta, Zyprexa, and Abilify.

    I appreciate Jeff's hard work, but his estimates are wildly too high. They are unprecedented, and there is no way a 54-old year generic reformulation available north of the board OTC sets a new precedent. It's just not how things work.
    Apr 21, 2015. 09:05 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tonix Pharmaceuticals: Four Data-Based Valuations Of A Deeply Underappreciated Pharmaceutical Company [View article]
    Just so I can better understand your conclusion, let me summarize...

    You think TNXP is worth $236 per share because TNX-102SL, a sublingual formulation of a 54-year old generic molecule and available OTC in Europe, will have peak sales of $6.2 billion, putting it within the top-15 best selling drugs of all time?

    PS - My target is $14
    Apr 21, 2015. 08:25 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • InVivo Revolutionizing Spinal Cord Injury [View article]
    Yes, within the next 1-2 weeks we will get the 90-day update on Jesi and the 180-day update on Jordan. Jesi already had her 90-day update, we are just waiting for NVIV to PR the results. Based on what I have seen, Jesi's 90-day update will show that she remained AIS-A in classification. I think the market will see this as a disappointment because her videos and blogging suggested otherwise. As a reminder, at 90-days Jordan went from AIS-A to AIS-C. My guess is that he will still be AIS-C at 180 days. Again, the market may see this as a disappointment, but that is because I think expectations were higher based on some videos being shared on Twitter and YouTube.

    I'm hoping we see patients 3, 4, and 5 enroll before the end of the summer.
    Apr 19, 2015. 09:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analyst Interview: Cynapsus Therapeutics Still A Top Pick [View article]
    It's so they can reverse split the stock and then uplist to the NASDAQ. You should vote 'Yes'. CYNAF getting on the NASDAQ would allow for significantly more institutional buying in the open market, as well as increased liquidity and valuation expansion.
    Apr 19, 2015. 11:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • InVivo Revolutionizing Spinal Cord Injury [View article]
    Yes - stay tuned. I'll include that in my next article.
    Apr 16, 2015. 08:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brainstorm Rallies On Endorsement Of Competitor's Drug [View article]
    My $10 target is what I think the shares are worth right now. It is based on a 10 year DCF model, with approval in 2020, peak sales in 2025 of $1.1 billion, 20% discount rate, and 25% probability of approval.

    Now, if you are asking what is BCLI worth in 2020, for example post approval... then I would roll my model forward to 2020 and increase probability of approval to 100%. My model sales $101 per share. Now, this assume a 20% discount rate. This is likely way too high for a commercial organization. For example, a 10% discount rate changes the $101 target to $218.

    I can envision by the end of 2016, with positive Phase 2b data, moving my model forward 2 years and increasing the probability of approval to 40%. This yields a target of $23 with 20% discount rate.

    You have to appreciate time-value of money. Even if the model I built comes true (100% probability), at 20% discount rate, you should still only pay $39 right now for the shares.
    Apr 13, 2015. 07:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Brainstorm Rallies On Endorsement Of Competitor's Drug [View article]
    So I'm not really sure what you are asking.

    Neuralstem (NYSE:CUR) is located right outside Rockville, MD. There is a Canadian medical device company, DiagnoCure (TSX:CUR.TO) that you may be confusing Neuralstem with. DiagnoCure makes cancer diagnostics. As far as I can tell, then don't do anything with ALS.

    There is another cell therapy company called MediPost, also located in Rockville, MD, that has a product called Neurostem. Neurostem is in Phase 1 for Alzheimer's and looks to be preclinical for ALS. It is an adult stem cell therapy, likely undifferentiated MSC. MediPost is not public.

    Not sure if that confused you more, but hopefully it helped and you can re-ask your question based.
    Apr 13, 2015. 02:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Brainstorm Rallies On Endorsement Of Competitor's Drug [View article]
    Just so that everyone is aware - Neuralstem's cells are not derived from either adipose or bone marrow. They are isolated and expanded human neural stem cells. If anything, these are potentially the most efficacious cells for things like ALS or SCI, or even stroke. However, CUR's cells have to be administered directly into the gray matter of the spinal cord, which may (based on the P2a ALS trial) be causing some adverse events. If CUR can figure out the right population to treat with NSI-566, as well as perfect dose and delivery, it would offer even greater "Hope" for this incredibly difficult to treat disease.
    Apr 13, 2015. 12:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • InVivo Revolutionizing Spinal Cord Injury [View article]
    EAP?
    Apr 11, 2015. 02:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pieris' Anticalin Platform Could Revolutionize Drug Development [View article]
    There is none?
    Apr 11, 2015. 02:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pieris' Anticalin Platform Could Revolutionize Drug Development [View article]
    I think big pharma sees the value of the platform.
    Apr 11, 2015. 02:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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