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Jason Napodano, CFA

 
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  • Time To Buy Aastrom Biosciences [View article]
    Touche'
    Jun 17 03:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ICo's IDEAL Trial Fails, What's Left For Investors? [View article]
    I doubt we'll see much run-up to that data. Next time I speak with management I'll try to nail down a more specific time. Perhaps I can even do an article on -009 prior to the data.

    Jason
    Jun 17 07:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ICo's IDEAL Trial Fails, What's Left For Investors? [View article]
    Very risky, but I think under-valued at 6 cents. Question is, what gets it going higher? Not many people will be interested in buying a 6 cent stock with questionable future.
    Jun 16 09:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cynapsus Offers Potential Big Returns [View article]
    Absolutely not. Giving a PD patient "more levadopa" is completely the wrong idea. Inhaled levadopa as a rescue medication is a moronic concept. If you don't understand that, you don't understand this disease.
    Jun 14 01:32 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BrainStorm Tackles Neurodegenerative Diseases With Novel Cell Therapy [View article]
    BCLI's treatment is absolutely something that will need to be re-dosed to keep the patient alive and functioning. We state this above. We believe someone with ALS may expect 3-4 treatments with MSC-NFT a year. Think of it like dialysis. It will become part of the patients life - if successful. It's absolutely not a cure. It's a treatment option. Average life expectancy post ALS diagnosis is 2-4 years. I think BCLI's therapy will be a home run if it gets life expectancy +2 years.
    Jason
    Jun 13 09:20 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cynapsus Offers Potential Big Returns [View article]
    Are you honestly suggesting that patients would prefer a subcutaneous injection 3-4 times a day instead of an oral sublingual film? This drug is not designed to replace or even reduce levadopa. It's a rescue medication, to be used in patients experiencing off-time.
    Jun 13 12:44 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BrainStorm Tackles Neurodegenerative Diseases With Novel Cell Therapy [View article]
    ALS is definitely not a zero-sum game. There are 30k ALS patients in the U.S. alone and rilutek does very little. I see BCLI's and CUR's treatments are complimentary rather than competitive. CUR is injecting regionally specific human neural cells directly into the spinal cord. These cells become part of the patients CNS and help create new circuitry along the cord. BCLI is injecting adult mesenchymal cells that have been induced to express neurotrophic factors. They are doing both IM and IT injections. It's a different concept and mechanism. If you had ALS, you can clearly get both - and why not!

    Additional indications for CUR are stroke and spinal cord injury.
    Additional indications for BCLI are PD and MS.

    Again, different mechanisms, different cells. Wide open market.

    Jason
    Jun 13 09:03 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BrainStorm Tackles Neurodegenerative Diseases With Novel Cell Therapy [View article]
    Don't know him personally but his resume looks great and I think it looks like a very good choice.
    Jason
    Jun 12 10:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Zalicus +43.5% AH; Epirus releases positive BOW015 data [View news story]
    I've been saying since the merger was announced, Epirus is way too cheap based on Zalicus market cap!

    Jason
    Jun 11 05:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ICo's IDEAL Trial Fails, What's Left For Investors? [View article]
    ICo noted that a "significant number" of patients in the iDEAL study also had cataracts. We'll have to wait for the full data to see just what % they consider a significant number. I'm currently digging into the READ-2, DA VINCI, and VISTA studies to see what percent of those patients had cataracts and if that impacted the results.

    I spoke briefly with ICo's CEO. As I noted above, they are looking into various subsets to see if any particular population showed a striking benefit with -007. Again, we will not know those results until much later in 2014. The company also reminded me (a few times) that they have cash until the Q4 of 2015 and have to need or desire to raise cash prior to the full iDEAL results later this year.

    Jason
    Jun 11 08:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ICo's IDEAL Trial Fails, What's Left For Investors? [View article]
    I don't understand them either. But at this point, how can you still assume iCo-007 will work?
    Jun 10 03:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Acadia Remains On Track With Pimavanserin Program [View article]
    Yes, although at this point I'm not sure if they will get priority review. I also think October is the best-case scenario. It might slip into November.
    Jun 4 08:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deal To Acquire Sanofi's CTRM Could Double Shares Of Aastrom Biosciences [View article]
    I just spoke with ASTM COO Dan Orlando.

    The 8K notes that CTRM has been operating at a loss in recent periods and that the company plans to take steps to improve profitability. PWC went back and audited the division financials for 2012, 2013, and the Q1-2014. ASTM will make these pro-forma financials available real soon.

    The thing Dan pressed to me is that CTRM was not being run as a stand-alone division to achieve profitability. CTRM consists of manufacturing, research, and sales. Manufacturing at CTRM reported up the manufacturing hierarchy at Sanofi, research reported up the R&D hierarchy, etc... Same with sales. There was no real accountability to make CTRM profitable. It was all lost within the amalgamation of Sanofi-Genzyme and no one was specifically working to create a profitable CTRM P&L.

    If you've ever worked at a huge organization, then you know exactly what I'm talking about!

    I asked Dan what the key areas for improving profitability were and he said: 1) manufacturing efficiency is key, specifically with MACI. 2) Looking at markets and revenue vs. cost will also play a big role. So we could be looking at the sort of thing were CTRM is not profitable because of some territories. I think ASTM will focus on the U.S. and big-5 EU area where CTRM may be profitable. 3) Improving sales. Dan made it sound like "selling" was an afterthought at CTRM. ASTM plans to change that and focus on growing the top-line. Growting top-line / cutting costs = plan to profitability.

    I asked about the patents and exclusivity. Dan said the manufacturing is a significant barrier to entry. Also, these are biologic products, so it's not like a generic company can just produce an alternative product. I looked at this back when the deal closed. I'm not worried at all about generic CTRM products.

    ASTM acquired $4.3M in positive working-capital and no debt as part of the transaction. I think running the division as one whole organization, with a division head and P&L will have a meaningfully positive impact on the business. Again, if you've worked for a behemoth vs. a small organization you know exactly what I'm talking about. Dan reiterated his belief that they can get CTRM spinning off positive operating income in the future. He said revenues are lumpy, but have been fairly consistent at around $40+ million. With that level of revenues and a more efficient and accountable operations, I think CTRM can do between 10-15% positive operating margin. That's what I've outlined above.

    Jason
    Jun 3 09:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Neuralstem NSI-189 Abstract Teases At Potential Greatness [View article]
    lexoo,

    Here are the patents to NSI-189. As I understand it, there are only "so many" cells to target, and when the cells are over-stimulated, they begin to shut-down. This explains why the 40mg and 80mg dose worked, but the 120mg did not. Is that BS?

    http://bit.ly/1kyJxJI

    http://bit.ly/1kyJxJM

    Take a look at the patents and see if you concur.

    Jason
    Jun 1 10:15 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cynapsus Offers Potential Big Returns [View article]
    June / July.
    Jun 1 11:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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