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Jason Napodano, CFA

 
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  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics, Inc.: A Small Biotech With Big Plans And Huge Potential [View article]
    If you are going to site the "3 C's of Biotech Investing" you should at least give credit to me for creating it! Come up with your own idea, or give credit where credit is due.
    Jun 24, 2014. 11:57 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Protalex PRTX-100 - A Potential Blockbuster For RA [View article]
    Not sure I understand your question. The market for anti-TNF drugs like Remicade, Humira, and Enbrel is around $22B on a global basis. This drug would be positioned ahead of those drugs, but probably still behind steroids and MTX. The economics of this drug are pretty strong, so I think PRTX can charge a lot less than the TNF drugs but still make a nice profit. The opportunity in ITP is a potential orphan market and I would think a potential blockbuster as well. I plan to do another article on this drug for ITP later in the year.

    Jason
    Jun 21, 2014. 08:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Protalex PRTX-100 - A Potential Blockbuster For RA [View article]
    Thanks for the comments mkarpoff.
    Looking at micro-cap and "way too early" stage biotechs is what I do.
    I could spend my time writing about Gilead's Sovaldi or Vertex' pending CF data, but this has been covered numerous times by other analysts. Yes, those articles may be more applicable to investors but I choose not to be the 10th or 11th person to write on a topic. Instead, I choose to be the ONLY person writing on something like this. I find it more "fun" to dig into stuff no one else is digging into, and I think significant returns can be made with this strategy. Thanks,

    Jason
    Jun 21, 2014. 11:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DARA Snags Second Orphan Indication For KRN5500 [View article]
    DARA's agreement with Kirin on is not indication specific. They have rights to the entire molecule in all uses / indications. They are pursuing new IP in MM based on my last conversation with them but I am not aware of the status of any pending applications. There are several patents on KRN5500 which I covered in a previous article. ODD obviously provides rock-solid protection once approved for 7-years regardless of patent situation.

    Jason
    Jun 18, 2014. 05:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Still Several Reasons To Remain Long Amarantus [View article]
    They will be exchanged in your brokerage account. Ticker will be the same as well. Nothing you have to do.
    Jun 18, 2014. 02:08 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Buy Aastrom Biosciences [View article]
    Jason,

    Current Epicel revenues are around $7 million per year. So if you increase the price by 30%, that equates to around $2 million more. I do not think a 30% increase in price will deter any demand for the product. Epicel is a one of the only options for an individual with full thickness burns greater than or equal to 30% of total body. The cost is not inhibitory at all. I'd encourage you to dig more into Epicel - who needs it and what it dose - and I think you'll see what I'm talking about. There is a product I'm very high on called ReCell (Avita Medical) that could be competition for Epicel at some point, but right now Epicel is kind of a last-hope product.

    MACI is superior to Carticel, so Aastrom's strategy is to get MACI approved in the U.S. and transition patients from Carticel to MACI. That's the U.S. strategy. U.S. MACI demand can be met with the Cambridge, MA manufacturing facility. MACI is not reimbursed in Europe. I don't know why, but the EU is very funny about reimbursing cell therapy products. So even though its a better product, without reimbursement there's no use / demand. Revenues were $1.6 million in all of 2013, with costs of >$7 million. Seems silly to keep swimming uphill with MACI in the EU. Aastrom can close the MACI plant in Denmark and save $5-6 million per year in cash. MACI reimbursement in the U.S. will be easier than in Europe because the company can use existing procedure codes in place with Carticel.

    Hope that helps explain my position.

    Jason
    Jun 18, 2014. 10:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Buy Aastrom Biosciences [View article]
    Touche'
    Jun 17, 2014. 03:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ICo's IDEAL Trial Fails, What's Left For Investors? [View article]
    I doubt we'll see much run-up to that data. Next time I speak with management I'll try to nail down a more specific time. Perhaps I can even do an article on -009 prior to the data.

    Jason
    Jun 17, 2014. 07:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ICo's IDEAL Trial Fails, What's Left For Investors? [View article]
    Very risky, but I think under-valued at 6 cents. Question is, what gets it going higher? Not many people will be interested in buying a 6 cent stock with questionable future.
    Jun 16, 2014. 09:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cynapsus Offers Potential Big Returns [View article]
    Absolutely not. Giving a PD patient "more levadopa" is completely the wrong idea. Inhaled levadopa as a rescue medication is a moronic concept. If you don't understand that, you don't understand this disease.
    Jun 14, 2014. 01:32 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BrainStorm Tackles Neurodegenerative Diseases With Novel Cell Therapy [View article]
    BCLI's treatment is absolutely something that will need to be re-dosed to keep the patient alive and functioning. We state this above. We believe someone with ALS may expect 3-4 treatments with MSC-NFT a year. Think of it like dialysis. It will become part of the patients life - if successful. It's absolutely not a cure. It's a treatment option. Average life expectancy post ALS diagnosis is 2-4 years. I think BCLI's therapy will be a home run if it gets life expectancy +2 years.
    Jason
    Jun 13, 2014. 09:20 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cynapsus Offers Potential Big Returns [View article]
    Are you honestly suggesting that patients would prefer a subcutaneous injection 3-4 times a day instead of an oral sublingual film? This drug is not designed to replace or even reduce levadopa. It's a rescue medication, to be used in patients experiencing off-time.
    Jun 13, 2014. 12:44 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BrainStorm Tackles Neurodegenerative Diseases With Novel Cell Therapy [View article]
    ALS is definitely not a zero-sum game. There are 30k ALS patients in the U.S. alone and rilutek does very little. I see BCLI's and CUR's treatments are complimentary rather than competitive. CUR is injecting regionally specific human neural cells directly into the spinal cord. These cells become part of the patients CNS and help create new circuitry along the cord. BCLI is injecting adult mesenchymal cells that have been induced to express neurotrophic factors. They are doing both IM and IT injections. It's a different concept and mechanism. If you had ALS, you can clearly get both - and why not!

    Additional indications for CUR are stroke and spinal cord injury.
    Additional indications for BCLI are PD and MS.

    Again, different mechanisms, different cells. Wide open market.

    Jason
    Jun 13, 2014. 09:03 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BrainStorm Tackles Neurodegenerative Diseases With Novel Cell Therapy [View article]
    Don't know him personally but his resume looks great and I think it looks like a very good choice.
    Jason
    Jun 12, 2014. 10:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Zalicus +43.5% AH; Epirus releases positive BOW015 data [View news story]
    I've been saying since the merger was announced, Epirus is way too cheap based on Zalicus market cap!

    Jason
    Jun 11, 2014. 05:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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