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Jason Napodano

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  • Weighing The Pros And Cons Of InVivo Therapeutics [View article]
    Sorry you feel as though my article was a hatchet job. I thought it was a fair-and-balanced analysis of the current situation.
    Mar 21 07:41 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Pros And Cons Of InVivo Therapeutics [View article]
    My goal is to speak with the CEO next week, and post any relevant updates here in the comments.
    Jason
    Mar 21 07:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Pros And Cons Of InVivo Therapeutics [View article]
    To be fair, I emailed the IR/Biz Dev guy, Brian, on Monday the 17th. He responded on the 18th saying, "Let me see what I can do..." On Thursday, when I had not heard back, I figured I might as well publish regardless.

    Jason
    Mar 21 11:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Reasons Aastrom Looks Good Right Now [View article]
    I'll let the stock price speak for itself. I'm not in the business of bashing management or dwelling on the past.
    Mar 21 09:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tonix TNX-201 Ready For Clinical Development [View article]
    I think $100 target is absolutely absurd by year-end 2014. Completely, utterly and without a doubt - absurd.
    Jason
    Mar 21 09:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Reasons Aastrom Looks Good Right Now [View article]
    Playing both sides? You mean... being Neutral??? Like my rating???
    Geez, sorry for being Neutral.

    I didn't realize every article I wrote had to specifically tell people to 'Buy' or 'Sell'. I thought I was actually doing my job as an analyst providing an unbiased opinion and information.
    Mar 20 03:25 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tonix TNX-201 Ready For Clinical Development [View article]
    Tonix is not developing a sleeping medication. TNX-102 is low-dose cyclobenzaprine for fibromyalgia and TNX-201 is a pure isomer of isometheptene for tension headache.

    $5 was an absolutely steal when I wrote this: http://seekingalpha.co...

    I agree $21 might have been a little ahead of itself, but at $11.55 it looks attractive. If you want to wait for $11-even, by all means.

    Jason
    Mar 20 02:59 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Reasons Aastrom Looks Good Right Now [View article]
    Obviously you missed this:
    http://bit.ly/1pfKCcu
    Don't put your lack of investing skill or ability to follow advice on me.
    Mar 20 02:54 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Reasons Aastrom Looks Good Right Now [View article]
    Nice try EminenceGrise, but you are wrong on my track record with ASTM. The chart I've linked below is my recommendation history of Aastrom. Now go run along and falsely besmirch someone else.

    http://bit.ly/1pfFncX
    Mar 20 02:28 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Reasons Aastrom Looks Good Right Now [View article]
    I think they have to partner. They simply don't have the cash to try to re-do a large-scale P3 trial in CLI. ASTM's goal should be to generate proof-of-concept and then find a large partner that can give them an upfront, development, backend, and royalties. If the do that, and the upfront is decent enough, then perhaps they can use that cash to push DCM into a P3 trial. Since it's an Orphan indication, the P3 in DCM may be small enough that they can fund it themselves. But that's a big if.

    That's what I would do if I were in charge or if the company asked my opinion. But I'm just an analyst!

    Jason
    Mar 20 01:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Reasons Aastrom Looks Good Right Now [View article]
    If you are truly a long-time holder of ASTM, I'm sorry for your loss. My condolences because this company has been poorly managed for the past decade. They were previously a cash-burning machine with pie-in-the-sky expectations and terrible financial metrics. But far too often I see investors subscribe to thinking, "I've lost a lot of money in this company, so it must be a crappy story" or the opposite "This stock is up huge so it must be a great story". You have to weight the pros and cons of the investment every single day. Every day you should ask yourself - does my thesis hold or has it changed. If I had no position, what would I do today. Buy or Sell? Yes, ASTM stock has been terrible, absolutely terrible. But your current investment is a sunk cost, and you have to look at the story as of today. As of today (or Tuesday night actually when I uploaded this article), I think much of the bad news is priced in and the risk / reward is favorable based on what I've outlined above. I strongly subscribe to the idea that fundamentals and valuation drive stock prices, and ASTM looks "good" because it has bottomed-out fundamentals, with catalysts to potentially change the fundamental story positive in the next 12-18 months, and very low valuation.

    Best, Jason
    Mar 20 11:57 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Reasons Aastrom Looks Good Right Now [View article]
    Agree on the risk, and promise. At some point though you have to look at the market value (when I published) of $21M and just go - That's crazy low! Risk / Reward favorable.
    Jason
    Mar 20 10:57 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Cipher Pharma Before Someone Else Buys Them [View article]
    Another example of Tax Inversion with today's Horizon buying Vidara:
    http://fxn.ws/1gevpJn

    Jason
    Mar 20 10:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Cipher Pharma Before Someone Else Buys Them [View article]
    I spoke with Larry on Friday. It was a personal decision on this part to step down because he believed he could not commit the time necessary to take the company to the next level of a N.A.-based specialty pharma focused on dermatology. Does that make them even more ripe to be acquired? Perhaps, but I wouldn't read too much into this move right now. For the most part, Cipher's near-term future is in the hands of its partners - mainly Ranbaxy. It will be interesting to see who the new CEO that comes on board is and what direction he/she wants to take the company.
    Jason
    Mar 17 11:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CAPTURE Data Should Help Drive Soltamox Sales At DARA Bio [View article]
    I'm assuming that 100% of patients with dysphagia that switch will stay on Soltamox for whatever portion of their 5 year treatment remains. For some, that could be 4+ years. For others, it could be a year or less.
    If 20% of the non-dysphagia patients ultimately decide to switch back to the pills, then my sales projection would drop from $10 million to $8 million. And peak sales go from $20 million to $18 million. I wouldn't call that "wreaking havoc" on my projections.
    Jason
    Mar 17 09:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
699 Comments
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