Arena Pharma Could Be on the Verge of Collapse [View article]
Arena exited the first quarter with $70 million in cash on hand. Based on my financial model, this is enough cash to fund operations until very early in 2010. Plus, the company has real estate investments worth up at least $50 million it can monetize through a sale / lease-back, and early-stage molecules, including a phase I candidate for thrombosis, it can partner if necessary to raise additional capital. Arena also has collaborative programs with J&J, Merck, and Taisho. That being said, a partnership for lorcaserin is likely after the BLOSSOM data in September 2009. Saying the company is on the verge of collapse is completely misleading and irresponsible.
I speak to management often. I spoke to Keith (CEO) several times over the past week while writing this article. So this article is mostly "facts" with some forecasting and prediction from me, which I try to distinguish by saying "We believe..." or "We model...". We = Me, but it sounds nicer if I pretend like I have a huge staff of recent MBA grads slaving over SEC filings and financial models.
Dara Biosciences: Don't Believe The Hype Surrounding This Biopharma [View article]
Just logged into to read this article and this was going to be my comment.
EnhydrisPECorp you base the bulk of your bearish position on DARA based on the GI toxicity and tolerability of KRN5500. Only you fail to realize the formulation they are moving forward with now is not the formulation use in phase 2a. So congratulations, you just wrote an entire article basing your bearish call on something that DARA has stated publicly is no longer an issue. Good work.
InVivo's Solution To Spinal Cord Injury Is A Billion Dollar Opportunity [View article]
A fair question, indeed. But let's not lose sight of the facts. The CEO currently owns 13.5 million shares of stock. Over the past month, he's sold around 0.8 million shares at tiny amounts almost weekly.
I'd hardly consider that "selling in a hurry". The dude owns 13.5 million shares of a stock at $2.30. That's $31+ million, which I'd guess is probably >90% of this personal wealth, tied up in one stock. He's sold only 0.8 million shares for $1.6 million in cash.
Yes, it sucks to see the CEO selling. But I'd sell too if I had 90% of my wealth tied up in one small-cap biotech stock as well. I can't blame him for either diversifying or reaping a little reward on his hard earned time and effort over the past decade to see this company get to where it is today.
An Alternative View Of Acadia Pharmaceuticals' Phase III Results [View article]
Question: What type of analysis would you consider the secondary endpoints in the study, which included the Caregiver Burden and the two Sleep endpoints (Daytime Wakefulness and Nighttime Sleep)?
Caregiver Burden intrigued me because there Acadia was getting the clinicians impression of change, and the results were highly statistically significant (p=0.002). It's still qualitative though, I assume you would argue?
The two sleep endpoints seem to be more quantitative (continuous as you suggest) and both were also statistically significant.
Sell-Off Creates Opportunity in Aastrom Bio [View article]
BB,
You're arguing semantics on my background. The truth is I've probably got more hands on experience in biotech than 95% of the people calling themselves "experts" out there. But fine, I'll be sure to qualify my background better in the future. It's not my intension to mislead.
On the uncontrollable tissue generation: This has yet to be a problem with ASTM's TRC for either CLI or DCM. I'd also point you to a recent article published in the the January issue of the Aesthetic Surgery Journal by CYTX that shows it does not seem to be an issue for them either.
I promise to follow up with the comapny on this issue in the near future, and will post anything relevant...if you promise to post more constructive comments in the future. Deal?
The most important thing for me is my performance rating, which as of right now is 5-star. If I thought ASTM was a 'Sell', you can bet I'd rate it as such.
Acadia Forges Forward With Pimavanserin [View article]
Interesting hypothesis that the higher the price target means the more research that has been done on the stock. I've been following ACAD since 2003, how about you?
The stock is $6.20 right now. Still $1.30 below my $7.50 target. I hardly consider that a low valuation. If and when it hits $7.50, I'll reassess. Until then, I'm quite comfortable with my model.
A Bare Bones Valuation On Zalicus: Over 40% Upside Potential [View article]
SL, I did speak to management recently, but not today. They did not ask me or tell me to publish anything. I came into work this morning and saw the MLV downgrade to 'Sell' and though it was off-base. I figured this article would be a good counterpoint to their call. Best, Jason
A Bare Bones Valuation On Zalicus: Over 40% Upside Potential [View article]
Thanks for the question. My purpose for this article was to establish a "floor valuation" based on conservative estimates. I think investors clearly need to adjust according to their own expectations. I was hoping to start the conversation on, "What's Zalicus worth?". Hopefully this article helps in that discussion.
Will Zalicus CEO Surprise Shareholders Today? [View article]
SL,
Two tidbits of information.
Keep an eye out for Covidien filing the 32mg dose of Exalgo. Right now Exalgo is only available in 8, 12, and 16mg. The 32mg dose is paramount to the drug meeting Covidien's peak sales estimate of $250M. This dose is equivalent to around one-third of the potential market for LAO. I'm expecting the filing within the next few months, followed by a six-month review.
Sanofi is currently in formulation work with prednisporin. They are enhancing the formulation from the "clinical-stage" formulation used for phase 1 and 2 to the "commercial-stage" formulation they need to use in the phase 3 trial. That's why you haven't heard much from Sanofi. Once they finish this formulation work, they will push into phase 3. Hard to say when that will be. I'm thinking Q3, but it's just a best estimate. However, one can assume that if Sanofi is taking the time and effort to conduct this "commercial-stage" formulation work, they must have been pleased with the phase 2 data.
Amarin Sliding but With Prospects: Time to Buy? [View article]
Haha, ok, I was going for dramatic effect!
Although, I'd be concerned that if ANCHOR fails now they only have 1 pivotal phase 3 trial and the FDA usually requires 2 pivotal phase 3 programs before granting approval. That's a question for management. If ANCHOR does fail, do they still file for approval based on MARINE alone, and what has the FDA said regarding what is necessary here? Like I said, unless it is a 505(2)b, the FDA usually requires 2 phase 3 trials.
Sell-Off Creates Opportunity in Aastrom Bio [View article]
The rational is that I've met management (a few times), and I've been covering the stock for a year now. I also understand how biotech companies work and operate, and I've taken the time to financially model there operations out to 2014 - all of which is fully published and tracked by First-Call and StarMine, as well as are my recommendations and price targets.
I dont work with Mr. Garza or his organization. No one paid me to write this article. I dont own the stock because my firm prohibits me from owning any stocks that I comment on. I'm a professional sell-side analyst with 12 years of experience working in equity research and 4 years of experience working as a scientist for a biotechnology company. I've got medical background, an MBA in finance, I'm licensed, and I hold the CFA charter. All this can be verified on my profile.
You, on the other hand, have yet to post anything of value. If you disagree that ASTM is a buy, then explain, in detail as I've done above, why. I'll be looking for your highly educated response.
InVivo's Solution To Spinal Cord Injury Is A Billion Dollar Opportunity [View article]
Well, NVIV doesn't pay me for advice, but if they did I would tell them to enact a tender offer for the in-the-money warrants. Look at what ONVO did. ONVO was $2.00, did a tender (which worked beautifully) and it sent the stock to $4+.
Arena Pharma Could Be on the Verge of Collapse [View article]
Checking In On Organovo [View article]
Dara Biosciences: Don't Believe The Hype Surrounding This Biopharma [View article]
EnhydrisPECorp you base the bulk of your bearish position on DARA based on the GI toxicity and tolerability of KRN5500. Only you fail to realize the formulation they are moving forward with now is not the formulation use in phase 2a. So congratulations, you just wrote an entire article basing your bearish call on something that DARA has stated publicly is no longer an issue. Good work.
Jason
InVivo's Solution To Spinal Cord Injury Is A Billion Dollar Opportunity [View article]
I'd hardly consider that "selling in a hurry". The dude owns 13.5 million shares of a stock at $2.30. That's $31+ million, which I'd guess is probably >90% of this personal wealth, tied up in one stock. He's sold only 0.8 million shares for $1.6 million in cash.
Yes, it sucks to see the CEO selling. But I'd sell too if I had 90% of my wealth tied up in one small-cap biotech stock as well. I can't blame him for either diversifying or reaping a little reward on his hard earned time and effort over the past decade to see this company get to where it is today.
Best,
Jason
An Alternative View Of Acadia Pharmaceuticals' Phase III Results [View article]
Caregiver Burden intrigued me because there Acadia was getting the clinicians impression of change, and the results were highly statistically significant (p=0.002). It's still qualitative though, I assume you would argue?
The two sleep endpoints seem to be more quantitative (continuous as you suggest) and both were also statistically significant.
My "more optimistic" view can be found here: http://bit.ly/VvsE6J
Thanks for the article and looking forward to your responses.
Jason
A Bare Bones Valuation On Zalicus: Over 40% Upside Potential [View article]
Jason
Sell-Off Creates Opportunity in Aastrom Bio [View article]
You're arguing semantics on my background. The truth is I've probably got more hands on experience in biotech than 95% of the people calling themselves "experts" out there. But fine, I'll be sure to qualify my background better in the future. It's not my intension to mislead.
On the uncontrollable tissue generation: This has yet to be a problem with ASTM's TRC for either CLI or DCM. I'd also point you to a recent article published in the the January issue of the Aesthetic Surgery Journal by CYTX that shows it does not seem to be an issue for them either.
I promise to follow up with the comapny on this issue in the near future, and will post anything relevant...if you promise to post more constructive comments in the future. Deal?
The most important thing for me is my performance rating, which as of right now is 5-star. If I thought ASTM was a 'Sell', you can bet I'd rate it as such.
Jason
Acadia Forges Forward With Pimavanserin [View article]
The stock is $6.20 right now. Still $1.30 below my $7.50 target. I hardly consider that a low valuation. If and when it hits $7.50, I'll reassess. Until then, I'm quite comfortable with my model.
A Bare Bones Valuation On Zalicus: Over 40% Upside Potential [View article]
I did speak to management recently, but not today. They did not ask me or tell me to publish anything. I came into work this morning and saw the MLV downgrade to 'Sell' and though it was off-base. I figured this article would be a good counterpoint to their call.
Best,
Jason
A Bare Bones Valuation On Zalicus: Over 40% Upside Potential [View article]
Best,
Jason
Will Zalicus CEO Surprise Shareholders Today? [View article]
Two tidbits of information.
Keep an eye out for Covidien filing the 32mg dose of Exalgo. Right now Exalgo is only available in 8, 12, and 16mg. The 32mg dose is paramount to the drug meeting Covidien's peak sales estimate of $250M. This dose is equivalent to around one-third of the potential market for LAO. I'm expecting the filing within the next few months, followed by a six-month review.
Sanofi is currently in formulation work with prednisporin. They are enhancing the formulation from the "clinical-stage" formulation used for phase 1 and 2 to the "commercial-stage" formulation they need to use in the phase 3 trial. That's why you haven't heard much from Sanofi. Once they finish this formulation work, they will push into phase 3. Hard to say when that will be. I'm thinking Q3, but it's just a best estimate. However, one can assume that if Sanofi is taking the time and effort to conduct this "commercial-stage" formulation work, they must have been pleased with the phase 2 data.
All the best,
Jason
Amarin Sliding but With Prospects: Time to Buy? [View article]
Although, I'd be concerned that if ANCHOR fails now they only have 1 pivotal phase 3 trial and the FDA usually requires 2 pivotal phase 3 programs before granting approval. That's a question for management. If ANCHOR does fail, do they still file for approval based on MARINE alone, and what has the FDA said regarding what is necessary here? Like I said, unless it is a 505(2)b, the FDA usually requires 2 phase 3 trials.
Sell-Off Creates Opportunity in Aastrom Bio [View article]
I dont work with Mr. Garza or his organization. No one paid me to write this article. I dont own the stock because my firm prohibits me from owning any stocks that I comment on. I'm a professional sell-side analyst with 12 years of experience working in equity research and 4 years of experience working as a scientist for a biotechnology company. I've got medical background, an MBA in finance, I'm licensed, and I hold the CFA charter. All this can be verified on my profile.
You, on the other hand, have yet to post anything of value. If you disagree that ASTM is a buy, then explain, in detail as I've done above, why. I'll be looking for your highly educated response.
Jason
Arena's Financing Deal with Azimuth Is a Healthy Move [View article]
October 2008: Azimuth & Dyax for $50M. DYAX price at the time: $3.05. DYAX price now: $2.55. STRIKE ONE!
March 2008: Azimuth & Alexza for $50M. ALXA price at the time: $6.92. ALXA price now: $2.25. STRIKE TWO!
May 2008: Azimuth & DepoMed for $30M. DEPO price at the time: $3.60. DEPO price now: $2.50. FOUL BALL!
May 2006: Azimuth & Nanogen for $25M. NGEN price at the time: $2.50. NGEN price now: $0.04! BIG SWING, and MISS! OH, STRIKE THREE!
Where do these guys at Azimuth get their money (and brains)???
InVivo's Solution To Spinal Cord Injury Is A Billion Dollar Opportunity [View article]
Jason