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Jason Rivera

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  • Wendy's: Great Fast Food, Bad Investment [View article]
    @Reed Parlato

    Completely agree. I do know they have eliminated some of their debt but unless they get rid of a lot more the above thesis still remains intact. Like I said though in the original article, I hope I am wrong about that poor outlook.
    Oct 14 11:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brazil Fast Food Company Insiders' Ridiculous Offer To Take The Company Private [View article]
    Not sure, details have been vague thus are on specifics of the situation. I still haven't found anything that describes what exactly an "Outside" shareholder voter technically is.
    Oct 9 10:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Koss Corporation Is A Grossly Overvalued, Dying Company, That Has Major Management Concerns [View article]
    @Insider-Alerts

    Great reply, here are my thoughts.

    1. I do not think the company is doing everything necessary to create value for shareholders. I think they have been destroying value. I think shareholders would be much better served if the company were bought out as just one example. Also if you are in them for the 5% dividend why not own someone like Altria who almost certainly will be around years and decades from now, has a gigantic moat, and has dominant market share? KOSS has lost 80% of its value in recent years so even with its 5% dividend if you have held during that time you have still lost quite a bit of money. Much better ways to get yield than in a company like KOSS in my opinion. On top of that KOSS might not be around for years or decades more like some of the bigger dividend yielders will be.

    2. I admittedly do not know a ton about options but I do know about the games companies can play with options and I am extremely biased against companies giving a lot of options and having the ability to reprice them to any degree. Makes me extremely nervous as a potential shareholder that the potential is there to do things that are untoward, especially with how poorly the company has been run in the last several years in my eyes. Mix this with the poor corporate governance issue and some of the other issues I talked about in the article and I do not trust its management.

    3. Just because management has bought shares when its stock price has been below $5 a share does not mean that is a good thing for shareholders. If the company buys shares back when the company is overvalued they are destroying shareholder value further. Companies are supposed to buy back shares when they are undervalued and issue shares when overvalued to maximize shareholder value. In my eyes KOSS is massively overvalued, even including its substantial NOL's, at $5 a share.

    As an extremely conservative value investor I have two major criteria that a company needs to pass in order for me to even consider buying.

    1. Is the company undervalued enough where I have a substantial margin of safety: Usually at least 30-50% undervalued relative to my estimate of its intrinsic value.

    2. Can I trust management.

    KOSS fails both of these major criteria for me.
    Oct 9 10:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Brazil Fast Food Company Insiders' Ridiculous Offer To Take The Company Private [View article]
    At this point I have not looked too much into that law firm or the potential law suit. I have been more concerned with getting a big enough group of shareholders together to push for a much higher offer.

    At this point I have been in contact with investors in BOBS who combine to own around $10 million worth of its shares at the $15.50 offer price. Nothing firm at this point but will keep everyone in the loop. If you would like updates on what I and others are doing in this situation please follow my blog and or follow me on Twitter because I will post updates on those two places faster than I will here.
    Oct 3 11:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Koss Corporation Is A Grossly Overvalued, Dying Company, That Has Major Management Concerns [View article]
    @Ianxponent

    Thank you for your comment.

    I do not use either of the companies products and just went by the numbers. Beats has been ascending extremely fast and crushing any and all competition up to this point including KOSS. KOSS has lost 80% of its value in the last several years for example.
    I am not sure why comparing a wireless headset to one that is wired is not a fair comparison and I admittedly have no direct knowledge of the sound quality of either companies products. The two products I listed in the article I just wanted to compare price points and an aesthetic point of view which one looked better since apparently a lot of people who buy Beats are doing it for the perceived cool factor.
    I do know that being technically superior does not always mean better or more sales. Just look at the previous generation of video game hardware for a perfect example. Most hardcore gamers (Including me) thought the Wii was for kids, had horrible graphics, and was generally a garbage system outside of Zelda and Mario and it went on to sell the most systems of the last console generation because it was able to garner more casual support.
    Same thing with the comment about KOSS being around longer than Dr. Dre has even been born. It doesn't matter how long a company has been around if it doesn't evolve, get better, continue to improve, and has a competitor who comes around and changes the industry landscape in some meaningful way.

    Thanks again.
    Oct 2 11:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Koss Corporation Is A Grossly Overvalued, Dying Company, That Has Major Management Concerns [View article]
    Thanks a lot @SC Stock Hunter.
    Oct 2 10:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wendy's: Great Fast Food, Bad Investment [View article]
    @dtejd1997

    Nice to hear from you. Haven't in a while and hope you are doing well.

    I have not been paying much attention to the market or individual companies lately unfortunately as I have been getting my book written and published. Now that all of that is done and the book is released I am going to start researching companies again in the next week or so and hope to have another valuation and analysis article ready as soon as possible.

    Sounds great and I hope you bought into the company before its rise.
    Sep 19 12:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brazil Fast Food Update: After Huge Run Up The Company Is Still Undervalued [View article]
    Completely agree, everything is still improving except for the KFC operations which are still lagging.

    For those of you who want to see the results yourself here is the page.

    http://bit.ly/16mBBKd
    Aug 14 11:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brazil Fast Food Update: After Huge Run Up The Company Is Still Undervalued [View article]
    @turb0kat

    Congrats on your gains thus far.

    I got its English language filings from the following site that linked to BOBS investor relations page.

    http://1.usa.gov/13AdC4B

    I agree they could be a buyout target if they keep growing as well and efficiently as they have been. They do need to improve the margins at the YUM subsidiary also as they have generally been lagging the rest of the company like you said.
    Thanks for your comment.
    Aug 14 11:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brazil Fast Food Update: After Huge Run Up The Company Is Still Undervalued [View article]
    @etai29
    I hope and think you may be right.

    Do you still see BOBS being a potential buyout target like you did in December?
    Jul 27 11:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brazil Fast Food Update: After Huge Run Up The Company Is Still Undervalued [View article]
    @Baub22

    Congrats on your gain.

    I plan on holding this stock for the medium to long term especially with the short and medium term catalysts in place and the continued improved profitability so I am not really worried about a one day or month drop. I would look at that as an opportunity to buy more shares.
    Jul 26 09:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brazil Fast Food Update: After Huge Run Up The Company Is Still Undervalued [View article]
    @etai29

    Hopefully they are more profitable than the last time they did the festival and have all of their logistical and efficiency issues fixed. If I remember right I think they were barely profitable last time due to those issues.
    Jul 26 04:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Financials With High Insider Ownership And Dividend Yields Greater Than 5% [View article]
    Thanks for the link to my article Black Coral Research, really appreciate it.
    May 10 03:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Brazil Fast Food Is Substantially Undervalued And Has A Moat [View article]
    @Etai29

    5X, 8X, 11X, and 14X EBIT + cash and cash equivalents + short-term investments+NOL's:

    5X28.9=106+32=176.5/8.... R$ per share=$10.95 per share + $5.30 in NOL's=$16.25 per share.
    8X28.9=231.2+32=263.2/... R$ per share=$16.33 per share + $5.30 in NOL's=$21.63 per share.
    11X28.9=317.9+32=349.9... R$ per share=$21.71 per share+ $5.30 in NOL's=$27.01 per share.
    14X28.9=404.6+32=436.6... R$ per share=$27.09 per share+$5.30 in NOL's=$32.39 per share.

    At minimum at 5X EBIT+cash+NOLs BOBS should be selling for at least $16.25 per share.

    At a more reasonable valuation, I again would use the 8 and 11X EBIT valuations which including cash and NOL's would make BOBS worth between $21 and $27 per share.

    I wouldn't count on BOBS keeping these numbers up, but if they can BOBS will become an even better investment over time.
    Apr 6 11:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brazil Fast Food Is Substantially Undervalued And Has A Moat [View article]
    Yes I did, I was pretty surprised at how good the results were. Not too shocking once you see how much growth they have had in the number of franchised restaurants though as those are very high margin restaurants for them.
    Apr 4 11:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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138 Comments
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