Apple Earnings: A Rare Growth Opportunity [View article]
In response to Thinkb4uwrite...you ask a great question because it illustrates the fact that Apple is no longer a buy and hold stock. The opportunity to profit is greater than ever because of it, nevertheless, this era of volatility has become increasingly difficult for individual investors to navigate because of the high volume of hedge fund activity that drives leadership stocks. What were we doing when Apple hit $310 on June 20th? I'll post an excerpt of my economictiming.com post from that very day:
"Six months from now we will be telling the world that we were buyers of Apple in the midst of the Greek crisis. Greece is too small to stand alone, their debt obligations are too large to allow a default, and China owns 25% of its $3 trillion of currency reserves in euro denominated assets...This selloff in Apple is the perfect example of momentum gone amuck. From the Thursday high to the Monday low AAPL was down $18! From our research on the weekly action in Apple we know that is not a time when you want to be invested in Apple. This stock is being used as a source of funds, or a short term source of risk liquidity during this uncertain time for the market. The recent emergence of technical traders telling investors that Apple is broken and that now is the time to sell is deafening. These guys are out of their minds. We are confident that the opposite is true. Every move that we have made over the last few months, every dollar of cash raised, has all been made in an effort to survive until the opportune moment. We are in the general vicinity of that moment.
A very interesting report out of Flurry, a mobile analytics firm shows that mobile app use has officially surpassed time spent browsing the Web. In June 2011 users spent an average of 81 minutes per day in apps while spending 76 minutes per day on the web.
Certainly good news for the mobile hardware leader. Apple stock will bounce. Three statements come to mind, the first is our own, ‘we can reconcile a low portfolio value when Apple is down but we cannot reconcile a low portfolio value when Apple is at a high.’
The second is from Warren Buffet, ‘Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.‘
The third is a generic war philosophy, ‘Don’t fire until you see the whites of their eyes.’
Buying Apple in the midst of a Greek triggered market selloff will sound like it was a no-brainer once this turbulence passes. But when you’re in the midst of it, it is more difficult to execute. This selloff is presenting us an opportunity average into new positions with our current 65% allocation of portfolio cash. Apple options present a potential 5x return on investment if we can time it right.
Keep your eye on the prize."
Needless to say, the last month has been very good to us as we increased our Apple options positions to 50% of the portfolio after they were at 5% of the portfolio on June 15th. Apple is the best investment vehicle on Wall Street but investors must be in tune with hedge fund action in order to benefit. For the last six months we have been developing a new newsletter service that will be called appleleadershipindex.com that is set to launch next week. I hope to further expose hedge fund manipulation to all subscribers of this service.
Apple: Calculating the Steve Jobs Premium [View article]
According to the NY Times article it sounds like Steve and Apple have known about this for weeks, even months. Today's stock price resiliency is impressive but I don't think the selloff has gone deep enough to compel the big money to buy. The path of least resistance remains to the downside until we get a significant dip. There is no question that Apple pinpointed yesterday as the perfect time for such an unfortunate announcement and their foresight certainly has benefitted investors today. Tomorrow might be a different story as investors wake up with earnings in the rearview mirror and no Steve Jobs.
Six Reasons Apple Is Ready to Climb [View article]
Actually, Jason hasn't been saying that Apple would take off since April. We've been in and out of the stock multiple times since April usually selling at $265 and buying back in the $240's. At economictiming.com we bought our first allocation of AAPL stock last week and our first AAPL option LEAPS yesterday. I'm certainly long term bullish on Apple but if you want to make money you have to respect the action. The good old days of buy and hold are over. All Seeking Alpha readers should understand that articles posted do not reflect a comprehensive investment strategy of any of the contributors. These are 'snap shot' articles of a particular moment in time. If you are partial to a particular author you need to be sure and follow all recommendations. I don't pump stocks, I simply try and interpret the current environment. Shoot me an email and I'll send you my list of 4 new investment catalysts revealed from today's iPod/Apple TV event. Hope to see you all at economictiming.com soon!
Knight, I agree. That intro was certainly not part of the final version. A mixup caused the wrong draft to be sent out to seeking alpha. The quote myself thing was supposed to be a note reminding me where the quote was coming from in my rough draft.
This version makes me sound like one of those pro athletes who refer to themselves in the third person! I apologize for the blooper.
How Apple's Market Share Will Propel Stock to $500, Part 1 [View article]
There are multiple links to the 91% NPD report. Here's one: techreport.com/discuss... We can definitely retract that report if NPD is proven false.
The general point is that Apple does very well in the high end and there is room to take share if they decide to offer a Tablet or even a MacBook at a lower price point.
How Apple's Market Share Will Propel Stock to $500, Part 1 [View article]
Don't forget about the Tablet effect that will be in full force by 2011. You'll get my EPS numbers with corresponding multiple projections in Part 3. Cheers everyone. I love hearing it all. The good, the bad, the ugly...the Microsoft/Apple debate is reaching a peak of intensity and investors need to decide what to do about it.
FYI-I have absolutely no love affair with Apple, I wouldn't hesitate to go short if that's what was warranted. But I believe at this time, Apple offers a fundamental play for the ages.
How Apple's Market Share Will Propel Stock to $500, Part 1 [View article]
How about these new Mac commercials (www.apple.com/getamac/ads/). Can't stop laughing at the 'broken promises'!
Also can't blame Microsoft for opening retail stores that clone Apple. It's what they do, with the success Apple has had they should have done it years ago. But still, Ballmer should at least have a little pride and come up with something on his own, shouldn't he?
Trying to interpret hedge fund activity is a tricky game to say the least. I submit that Citadel could be doing a little of all three: redemptions, 25%, and 9.9%. These conversion sales could be killing three birds with one stone at any given time. The only thing we know for sure is that Citadel is selling and it continues to be a burden on the stock. Watch the rate of change of Citadel sales for the real indicator. The reason why I only mentioned the 9.9% in the article is because it is the only verifiable regulatory issue. The others, including Etrade sales being used as redemptions, are speculation. Citadel could pay off redemptions through other means. A reminder-this investment is highly speculative. Don't plan on ever having a 100% grasp of Citadel's intentions.
Citadel isn't unloading shares because they no longer believe in the Etrade story. They are doing this for regulatory purposes. Evidence of this theory is in the eerie trading range of Etrade stock. These sales have been carefully orchestrated by Citadel & friends. Who are the friends? I don't know. But it is obvious there are large institutions buying the shares that Citadel is selling. If this weren't the case, you would see huge swings going on.
Redbeard200000 posted important data points that weren't included in the article. It looks like Citadel might sell off another 10 batches of 25 million shares each throughout October. I'm using the entire month as an opportunity to average into my position. The fact that Citadel is able to reposition with relatively small volatility shows the demand for ETFC in the open market. One could definitely wait until all conversions are complete but I prefer to average in as we approach a positive catalyst for the stock. This is not a quick trade for me. I'm looking at the next 6-12 months to generate my return.
Twitter Acquisition Mania: Google Rebuffed, Is Apple Trying Now? [View article]
Completely disagree with LA tech. Twitter is an incredible news platform; especially on the go. I'd much rather check Twitter on my iPhone then surf through 10 different news sites. It continues the evolution towards personalized news and I think it would be a perfect fit for Apple. Great price. Great innovation.
Top 10 Reasons Microsoft Surface Is DOA [View article]
Apple Earnings: A Rare Growth Opportunity [View article]
"Six months from now we will be telling the world that we were buyers of Apple in the midst of the Greek crisis. Greece is too small to stand alone, their debt obligations are too large to allow a default, and China owns 25% of its $3 trillion of currency reserves in euro denominated assets...This selloff in Apple is the perfect example of momentum gone amuck. From the Thursday high to the Monday low AAPL was down $18! From our research on the weekly action in Apple we know that is not a time when you want to be invested in Apple. This stock is being used as a source of funds, or a short term source of risk liquidity during this uncertain time for the market. The recent emergence of technical traders telling investors that Apple is broken and that now is the time to sell is deafening. These guys are out of their minds. We are
confident that the opposite is true. Every move that we have made over the last few months, every dollar of cash raised, has all been made in an effort to survive until the opportune moment. We are in the general vicinity of that moment.
A very interesting report out of Flurry, a mobile analytics firm shows
that mobile app use has officially surpassed time spent browsing the Web. In June 2011 users spent an average of 81 minutes per day in apps while spending 76 minutes per day on the web.
Certainly good news for the mobile hardware leader. Apple stock will bounce. Three statements come to mind, the first is our own, ‘we can reconcile a low portfolio value when Apple is down but we cannot reconcile a low portfolio value when Apple is at a high.’
The second is from Warren Buffet, ‘Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.‘
The third is a generic war philosophy, ‘Don’t fire until you see the
whites of their eyes.’
Buying Apple in the midst of a Greek triggered market selloff will
sound like it was a no-brainer once this turbulence passes. But when you’re in the midst of it, it is more difficult to execute. This
selloff is presenting us an opportunity average into new positions with our current 65% allocation of portfolio cash. Apple options present a potential 5x return on investment if we can time it right.
Keep your eye on the prize."
Needless to say, the last month has been very good to us as we increased our Apple options positions to 50% of the portfolio after they were at 5% of the portfolio on June 15th. Apple is the best investment vehicle on Wall Street but investors must be in tune with hedge fund action in order to benefit. For the last six months we have been developing a new newsletter service that will be called appleleadershipindex.com that is set to launch next week. I hope to further expose hedge fund manipulation to all subscribers of this service.
6 Investment Ideas for the Libyan Market Correction [View article]
Apple: Calculating the Steve Jobs Premium [View article]
Six Reasons Apple Is Ready to Climb [View article]
Japan Reveals Apple's Future [View article]
This version makes me sound like one of those pro athletes who refer to themselves in the third person! I apologize for the blooper.
How Apple's Market Share Will Propel Stock to $500, Part 1 [View article]
The general point is that Apple does very well in the high end and there is room to take share if they decide to offer a Tablet or even a MacBook at a lower price point.
How Apple's Market Share Will Propel Stock to $500, Part 1 [View article]
FYI-I have absolutely no love affair with Apple, I wouldn't hesitate to go short if that's what was warranted. But I believe at this time, Apple offers a fundamental play for the ages.
How Apple's Market Share Will Propel Stock to $500, Part 1 [View article]
Also can't blame Microsoft for opening retail stores that clone Apple. It's what they do, with the success Apple has had they should have done it years ago. But still, Ballmer should at least have a little pride and come up with something on his own, shouldn't he?
E*Trade: A Solid, Deep Value Stock [View article]
Excellent analysis. Patient speculation can produce quite a reward. I'm perfectly content to hold throughout 2010 and let the stock rise come to me.
E*Trade Appears Ready to Climb [View article]
E*Trade Appears Ready to Climb [View article]
E*Trade Appears Ready to Climb [View article]
Artificial Life: Nothing Fake About This Software Company [View article]
Twitter Acquisition Mania: Google Rebuffed, Is Apple Trying Now? [View article]