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Jason Schwarz

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  • How Apple's Market Share Will Propel Stock to $500, Part 1 [View article]
    How about these new Mac commercials ( Can't stop laughing at the 'broken promises'!

    Also can't blame Microsoft for opening retail stores that clone Apple. It's what they do, with the success Apple has had they should have done it years ago. But still, Ballmer should at least have a little pride and come up with something on his own, shouldn't he?
    Oct 23 11:31 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Apple's Market Share Will Propel Stock to $500, Part 1 [View article]
    There are multiple links to the 91% NPD report. Here's one: We can definitely retract that report if NPD is proven false.

    The general point is that Apple does very well in the high end and there is room to take share if they decide to offer a Tablet or even a MacBook at a lower price point.
    Oct 23 03:28 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Six Reasons Apple Is Ready to Climb [View article]
    Actually, Jason hasn't been saying that Apple would take off since April. We've been in and out of the stock multiple times since April usually selling at $265 and buying back in the $240's. At we bought our first allocation of AAPL stock last week and our first AAPL option LEAPS yesterday. I'm certainly long term bullish on Apple but if you want to make money you have to respect the action. The good old days of buy and hold are over. All Seeking Alpha readers should understand that articles posted do not reflect a comprehensive investment strategy of any of the contributors. These are 'snap shot' articles of a particular moment in time. If you are partial to a particular author you need to be sure and follow all recommendations. I don't pump stocks, I simply try and interpret the current environment. Shoot me an email and I'll send you my list of 4 new investment catalysts revealed from today's iPod/Apple TV event. Hope to see you all at soon!
    Sep 1 05:57 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • E*Trade: A Solid, Deep Value Stock [View article]

    Excellent analysis. Patient speculation can produce quite a reward. I'm perfectly content to hold throughout 2010 and let the stock rise come to me.
    Oct 20 02:25 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Earnings: A Rare Growth Opportunity [View article]
    In response to ask a great question because it illustrates the fact that Apple is no longer a buy and hold stock. The opportunity to profit is greater than ever because of it, nevertheless, this era of volatility has become increasingly difficult for individual investors to navigate because of the high volume of hedge fund activity that drives leadership stocks. What were we doing when Apple hit $310 on June 20th? I'll post an excerpt of my post from that very day:

    "Six months from now we will be telling the world that we were buyers of Apple in the midst of the Greek crisis. Greece is too small to stand alone, their debt obligations are too large to allow a default, and China owns 25% of its $3 trillion of currency reserves in euro denominated assets...This selloff in Apple is the perfect example of momentum gone amuck. From the Thursday high to the Monday low AAPL was down $18! From our research on the weekly action in Apple we know that is not a time when you want to be invested in Apple. This stock is being used as a source of funds, or a short term source of risk liquidity during this uncertain time for the market. The recent emergence of technical traders telling investors that Apple is broken and that now is the time to sell is deafening. These guys are out of their minds. We are
    confident that the opposite is true. Every move that we have made over the last few months, every dollar of cash raised, has all been made in an effort to survive until the opportune moment. We are in the general vicinity of that moment.

    A very interesting report out of Flurry, a mobile analytics firm shows
    that mobile app use has officially surpassed time spent browsing the Web. In June 2011 users spent an average of 81 minutes per day in apps while spending 76 minutes per day on the web.

    Certainly good news for the mobile hardware leader. Apple stock will bounce. Three statements come to mind, the first is our own, ‘we can reconcile a low portfolio value when Apple is down but we cannot reconcile a low portfolio value when Apple is at a high.’

    The second is from Warren Buffet, ‘Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.‘

    The third is a generic war philosophy, ‘Don’t fire until you see the
    whites of their eyes.’

    Buying Apple in the midst of a Greek triggered market selloff will
    sound like it was a no-brainer once this turbulence passes. But when you’re in the midst of it, it is more difficult to execute. This
    selloff is presenting us an opportunity average into new positions with our current 65% allocation of portfolio cash. Apple options present a potential 5x return on investment if we can time it right.

    Keep your eye on the prize."

    Needless to say, the last month has been very good to us as we increased our Apple options positions to 50% of the portfolio after they were at 5% of the portfolio on June 15th. Apple is the best investment vehicle on Wall Street but investors must be in tune with hedge fund action in order to benefit. For the last six months we have been developing a new newsletter service that will be called that is set to launch next week. I hope to further expose hedge fund manipulation to all subscribers of this service.
    Jul 16 10:57 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Apple's Market Share Will Propel Stock to $500, Part 1 [View article]
    Don't forget about the Tablet effect that will be in full force by 2011. You'll get my EPS numbers with corresponding multiple projections in Part 3. Cheers everyone. I love hearing it all. The good, the bad, the ugly...the Microsoft/Apple debate is reaching a peak of intensity and investors need to decide what to do about it.

    FYI-I have absolutely no love affair with Apple, I wouldn't hesitate to go short if that's what was warranted. But I believe at this time, Apple offers a fundamental play for the ages.
    Oct 23 01:02 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Alibaba Acquisition Of Yahoo Makes Sense [View article]
    As for the growth prospects of Yahoo's core business...I respect everything Mayer is doing with live concerts, original programming, Tumblr, Katie Couric, etc... but I believe the path of least resistance is to sell out. Wall Street is rightfully slow to reward these 'innovations'. If you notice, the stock doesn't move when Mayer announces a new initiative. Why not? Because investors know how difficult the path to monetization can be in such a crowded field. Could Yahoo carve out a niche in the Apple TV ecosystem? Of course it can. But it takes time and requires patience. The path of least resistance is to unlock shareholder value today. My point in writing the article is to illustrate that the true value of Yahoo's assets has engulfed any of Mayer's Yahoo-centric initiatives. She would be smart to take the money and move on. Perhaps moving on means she'll get a top spot in Alibaba's U.S. operations?
    Apr 30 02:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Top 10 Reasons Microsoft Surface Is DOA [View article]
    Sorry Softies! This product is a disaster.
    Jun 22 12:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • E*Trade Appears Ready to Climb [View article]
    Redbeard200000 posted important data points that weren't included in the article. It looks like Citadel might sell off another 10 batches of 25 million shares each throughout October. I'm using the entire month as an opportunity to average into my position. The fact that Citadel is able to reposition with relatively small volatility shows the demand for ETFC in the open market. One could definitely wait until all conversions are complete but I prefer to average in as we approach a positive catalyst for the stock. This is not a quick trade for me. I'm looking at the next 6-12 months to generate my return.
    Oct 8 02:04 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Alibaba Acquisition Of Yahoo Makes Sense [View article]
    Keep in mind, Alibaba already has to shell out a significant sum to Yahoo in order to re-purchase the 40% of Yahoo's 24% stake. At a $200 billion valuation that would be $19.2 billion that Alibaba is paying Yahoo. Jack Ma can either pay $19.2 billion to repurchase 9.6% of Alibaba or he can do something sooner and get more bang for his buck.
    Apr 30 01:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Japan Reveals Apple's Future [View article]
    Knight, I agree. That intro was certainly not part of the final version. A mixup caused the wrong draft to be sent out to seeking alpha. The quote myself thing was supposed to be a note reminding me where the quote was coming from in my rough draft.

    This version makes me sound like one of those pro athletes who refer to themselves in the third person! I apologize for the blooper.
    Apr 27 03:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Artificial Life: Nothing Fake About This Software Company [View article]
    I love this company! Great article. The is a space any innovative tech investor should be in.
    May 19 01:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Twitter Acquisition Mania: Google Rebuffed, Is Apple Trying Now? [View article]
    Completely disagree with LA tech. Twitter is an incredible news platform; especially on the go. I'd much rather check Twitter on my iPhone then surf through 10 different news sites. It continues the evolution towards personalized news and I think it would be a perfect fit for Apple. Great price. Great innovation.
    May 5 10:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Media Tablet Will Cause the Stock to Rocket [View article]
    I am most intrigued by RK's comment on the commoditization of computers due to the continued development of cloud computing. The Media Tablet could really explode if PC memory and size become less of a necessity. The Media Tablet could eventually become the ultimate access point to the cloud. Interesting thought.
    Apr 29 03:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Obama's TARP 2 Signals an End to Mark to Market [View article]
    Mark to market has turned the investment world into a group of fearful day traders. The health of our financial system should never be tied so closely to short term real estate fluctuations. Marking long term securities at short term valuations makes no sense at all. We need to provide our great banks like Bank of America, JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, etc... with a better system to be able to weather future real estate corrections. Returning to a system that values the long term over the short term is severely needed. This post-Enron experiment has gone terribly wrong and I am continually shocked that the masses don't see it.
    Jan 14 02:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment