Deflation Spell Could Send S&P 500 To 825 In 2015 [View article]
Well, I'm noticing the rate of inflation is quickly dropping. I've been saying and noticing how aggregate demand for goods has been dropping ..from beef to gasoline especially. New homes, new cars, its still well below what used to be.
The dollar is getting strong and compared to Euro, Yen and Pound, looks the best. Actually, I think the RMB is the best and will eventually replace the dollar as the worlds reserve currency..but not for a while as their debt market is near non existant. But for now, a rallying dollar coupled with declines in aggregate demand should spell falling prices. Hence why gold has collapsed...perhaps.
Everything the Federal Gov't is doing is deflationary in the sense of causing aggregate demand collapse. Rising taxes isn't counted in the inflation rate..yet Americans are left with less disposable income to buy the same $100 of goods as a year ago. It's gonna impact aggregate demand for sure.
So the process/trend is already set and stocks I think will peak, soon, and go down from here. With that said, as this trend continues, by 2015, S&p 500 earnings could be around $55 from the current $86? .. due to margins declining.
Deflation Spell Could Send S&P 500 To 825 In 2015 [View article]
Perhaps it is a bit flawed. Ed Yardeni's pdf report here details corporate profits and from where they come from. Currently around 22.5% of NET pre-tax corporate profits come from outside the U.S. http://bit.ly/14ul7fi
Foreign companies own a good deal of the profits in America too.
Nominal GDP in 2015 has the potential to be very little changed to from where it is now. There is a slow downtrend in year over year nominal GDP growth: 4.3% in Q3 of 2012, 3.5% in Q4 and 3.4% in Q1 of 2013.
Inflation was running at 1.1% in April from a year ago and we're seeing aggregate demand for goods slowing down too.
Just like what happened to Dell as they cut prices to help demand, profits plunged.
Deflation Spell Could Send S&P 500 To 825 In 2015 [View article]
Dollar could stay strong for next 1-2 years on account of the Euro, Pound and Yen being even bigger disasters.
I think Gov't revenue expectations are way too high. If employment falls, and I think it will, that'll result in less tax revenue. Not sure what remedy will be to increase revenue without employment growth.
Goes to show how important it is to get aggregate demand up and prevent deflation.
Grocery sales in focus: Retail analysts note something doesn't add up with Wal-Mart's (WMT -2.6%) claim per Nielsen data that it's "winning" market share for its grocery business despite the retailer's overall sales slip. On a rough comparison, the company's grocery store sales are growing level with Safeway (SWY +0.2%) - but still trail the pace of Whole Foods Market (WFM -0.1%) and Kroger (KR) by quite a lot. Is Wal-Mart's grocery share gain at the expense of the dollar store group (DG, DLTR, FDO)? [View news story]
It's called a collapse in aggregate demand due to poor real income growth coupled with higher taxes.
Aereo says under a new pricing plan subscribers can pay $8 per month for unlimited streaming of local broadcast programming and up to 20 hours of remote DVR storage. For an additional $4 per month, users can receive up to 60 hours of storage. The counter-attack: CBS (CBS +0.3%) is busy with legal maneuvers while ABC (DIS +0.1%) says it will launch an iOS app this week that allows residents in New York and Philadelphia to watch local stations live on their iPhones or iPads. [View news story]
There is a massive bubble in entertainment providers.
More on retail sales: Building material and garden equipment sales (HD, LOW) were again, up 1.5% M/M and 4.1% Y/Y, while department store sales (SHLD, KSS, M, JWN, JCP) trailed expectations. Grocery store sales (KR, SVU, SWY) slipped during April compared to March but were 2% than a year ago on pricing gains. [View news story]
Sounds like a report that won't lead to jobs as volume is way down.
Lumber I noticed is way up in price ..so that may well explain HD and LOW.
More on Wendy's (WEN) Q1: Same-store sales rose only 1% for Wendy's North America company-operated restaurants, but margin improvement was seen due to a favorable product mix. 86 new restaurants have been given the Wendy's new image makeover and the company will invest more to keep the program moving forward. The restaurant operator reiterates its previous long-term outlook and increases its 2013 EPS guidance to $0.20 to $0.22. (PR) [View news story]
They raised prices more than 1% I can tell you that. Volume must have been down.
Early feedback on U.K./Canadian BlackBerry Q10 (BBRY -4%) sales indicate volumes below expectations, says Cleveland Research. The firm also thinks Z10 sell-thru is likely half of what it was around launch time, and believes BB10 build targets for the next few quarters could fall to 6M-8M from 10M-12M. Likewise, Pac Crest remains bearish, and calls the U.K./Canadian Q10 launches a "mess." The remarks follow a pessimistic note about BB10 sales on Monday from Canaccord, and one on April 25 from Wedge Partners. Jefferies has been more positive. [View news story]
Aggregate demand for a lot of goods is falling. Sounds like deflation is coming.
Worst Jobs Report Since April 2009? [View article]
Bingo. I played with those numbers already.. worst yet will be average weekly earnings for April. Couple this with abysmal savings rate and the higher taxes and we have a recipe for little to negative growth coming up for personal consumption expenditures. First few months of year was saved by spending and lack of saving. This second quarter probably won't get the boost from spending as a result of less saving. So, what's left is drop in aggregate demand..which should lead to drop in aggregate work required.
The economy after all is production (work) and consumption (spending).
Worst Jobs Report Since April 2009? [View article]
Hopefully for those looking for work or looking to increase their hours to make more money, this trend changes.
There is an argument that this drop in hours is due to Obamacare. If that were the case, we'd be seeing far more jobs being added to make up for all the hours lost.. or productivity ripping higher. It's not.
Deflation Spell Could Send S&P 500 To 825 In 2015 [View article]
The dollar is getting strong and compared to Euro, Yen and Pound, looks the best. Actually, I think the RMB is the best and will eventually replace the dollar as the worlds reserve currency..but not for a while as their debt market is near non existant. But for now, a rallying dollar coupled with declines in aggregate demand should spell falling prices. Hence why gold has collapsed...perhaps.
Everything the Federal Gov't is doing is deflationary in the sense of causing aggregate demand collapse. Rising taxes isn't counted in the inflation rate..yet Americans are left with less disposable income to buy the same $100 of goods as a year ago. It's gonna impact aggregate demand for sure.
So the process/trend is already set and stocks I think will peak, soon, and go down from here. With that said, as this trend continues, by 2015, S&p 500 earnings could be around $55 from the current $86? .. due to margins declining.
It's a matter of time is all.
Deflation Spell Could Send S&P 500 To 825 In 2015 [View article]
Demographics in the U.S. also plays a huge role.
Labor productivity growth has been weak the past few years now in the West. That's not helping aggregate demand either.
Some companies are seeing volumes decline now.
What I'm looking at are the trends and the economic trends continues to show slowing growth to decline in some cases year over year.
Outside of that, there are all kinds of black swans awaiting to be discovered.
Deflation Spell Could Send S&P 500 To 825 In 2015 [View article]
Foreign companies own a good deal of the profits in America too.
Nominal GDP in 2015 has the potential to be very little changed to from where it is now. There is a slow downtrend in year over year nominal GDP growth: 4.3% in Q3 of 2012, 3.5% in Q4 and 3.4% in Q1 of 2013.
Inflation was running at 1.1% in April from a year ago and we're seeing aggregate demand for goods slowing down too.
Just like what happened to Dell as they cut prices to help demand, profits plunged.
We'll see what happens.
Deflation Spell Could Send S&P 500 To 825 In 2015 [View article]
I think Gov't revenue expectations are way too high. If employment falls, and I think it will, that'll result in less tax revenue. Not sure what remedy will be to increase revenue without employment growth.
Goes to show how important it is to get aggregate demand up and prevent deflation.
Deflation Spell Could Send S&P 500 To 825 In 2015 [View article]
http://bit.ly/10jmQ7d
total public construction spending is downright collapsing.
http://bit.ly/RhfmPP
There was, is and will be.
Deflation Spell Could Send S&P 500 To 825 In 2015 [View article]
Let's not forget, Gov't is raising taxes now and curtailing spending.
Thanks for commenting.
Grocery sales in focus: Retail analysts note something doesn't add up with Wal-Mart's (WMT -2.6%) claim per Nielsen data that it's "winning" market share for its grocery business despite the retailer's overall sales slip. On a rough comparison, the company's grocery store sales are growing level with Safeway (SWY +0.2%) - but still trail the pace of Whole Foods Market (WFM -0.1%) and Kroger (KR) by quite a lot. Is Wal-Mart's grocery share gain at the expense of the dollar store group (DG, DLTR, FDO)? [View news story]
Worst Jobs Report Since April 2009? [View article]
The chart you put up is not seasonally adjusted... This chart of the same index that is seasonally adjusted is in line with my chart in the article:
http://bit.ly/12uFqc6
Confusing? Yes.
The labor market is flat out weakening for sure.
New hires .. do "change from year ago" and you'll see the collapse in new hires in April from last year.
http://bit.ly/11EtOGP
Aereo says under a new pricing plan subscribers can pay $8 per month for unlimited streaming of local broadcast programming and up to 20 hours of remote DVR storage. For an additional $4 per month, users can receive up to 60 hours of storage. The counter-attack: CBS (CBS +0.3%) is busy with legal maneuvers while ABC (DIS +0.1%) says it will launch an iOS app this week that allows residents in New York and Philadelphia to watch local stations live on their iPhones or iPads. [View news story]
More on retail sales: Building material and garden equipment sales (HD, LOW) were again, up 1.5% M/M and 4.1% Y/Y, while department store sales (SHLD, KSS, M, JWN, JCP) trailed expectations. Grocery store sales (KR, SVU, SWY) slipped during April compared to March but were 2% than a year ago on pricing gains. [View news story]
Lumber I noticed is way up in price ..so that may well explain HD and LOW.
But volume growth folks is dead.
More on Wendy's (WEN) Q1: Same-store sales rose only 1% for Wendy's North America company-operated restaurants, but margin improvement was seen due to a favorable product mix. 86 new restaurants have been given the Wendy's new image makeover and the company will invest more to keep the program moving forward. The restaurant operator reiterates its previous long-term outlook and increases its 2013 EPS guidance to $0.20 to $0.22. (PR) [View news story]
Early feedback on U.K./Canadian BlackBerry Q10 (BBRY -4%) sales indicate volumes below expectations, says Cleveland Research. The firm also thinks Z10 sell-thru is likely half of what it was around launch time, and believes BB10 build targets for the next few quarters could fall to 6M-8M from 10M-12M. Likewise, Pac Crest remains bearish, and calls the U.K./Canadian Q10 launches a "mess." The remarks follow a pessimistic note about BB10 sales on Monday from Canaccord, and one on April 25 from Wedge Partners. Jefferies has been more positive. [View news story]
Worst Jobs Report Since April 2009? [View article]
The economy after all is production (work) and consumption (spending).
Thanks for commenting.
Worst Jobs Report Since April 2009? [View article]
There is an argument that this drop in hours is due to Obamacare. If that were the case, we'd be seeing far more jobs being added to make up for all the hours lost.. or productivity ripping higher. It's not.
April Nonfarm Payrolls: +165K vs. consensus +145K, 138K previous (revised from +88K). Unemployment rate 7.5% vs. consensus 7.6%, 7.6% previous. [View news story]