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Jason Tillberg

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  • Chinese demand for its cars is so strong, says GM, that the company may sell over 2M vehicles this year, reaching that target four years ahead of schedule. The firm's China sales could exceed 3M by 2015, which is just the kind of zippy emerging market growth GM was counting on.  [View news story]
    And the US junked a net 4 million cars last year.

    Wealth is simply shifting from the West to the East and will continue to do so thanks to that bastard Free Trade.
    Apr 12 08:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • $87 oil certainly isn't helping the recovery, but James Hamilton says he'd be very surprised if it proves the kiss of death. One more thing to keep an eye on: vehicle miles driven.  [View news story]
    We junked a net 4 million cars last year!

    China Car sales up 56% last year.

    Why I'm mostly long gold and silver as the "credit" backing the US dollar is doomed and long AOB, a Chinese pharma company selling at less than 1x book and less than 8x p/e.

    Apr 11 12:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • While ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan says that unemployment peaked last fall, David Rosenberg takes a somewhat less sunny outlook: “I think we’ll finish the year above 10%," he says, and consumer credit will keep on contracting.  [View news story]
    correction: mole people

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...
    Apr 9 11:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • While ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan says that unemployment peaked last fall, David Rosenberg takes a somewhat less sunny outlook: “I think we’ll finish the year above 10%," he says, and consumer credit will keep on contracting.  [View news story]
    Surely if they just drop another 2 million out of the workforce considered to have "given up" and gone to live with the tunnel people in abandoned NYC subways, then yes, unemployement "rate" can be considered to have peaked.
    Apr 9 11:09 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China may post its first trade deficit in six years after a surge in imports of commodities and consumer goods, weakening arguments that the nation is keeping its currency undervalued to gain an advantage.  [View news story]
    When some 600 million Chinese live on less than $2 a day, standard of livings and consumption of commodities don't have anywhere else to go but up from there.
    Apr 9 10:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Feb. Wholesale Trade (.pdf): Inventories +0.6% to $393.5B vs. consensus of +0.3%. Sales +0.8% to $338.7B from revised Jan. level of -0.2%. Inventory-to-sales ratio of 1.16.  [View news story]
    Farm products and Energy, dominate the sales increases.
    Apr 9 10:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fannie Mae (FNM) did not abandon its goals of increasing homeownership for poorer Americans in pursuit of higher profits, ex-CEO Daniel Mudd says.  [View news story]
    Until homes can be bought for 1x - 2x household incomes, they are not affordable to own.

    Parasites at FNM created the opposite.

    300k a month to lose their homes this year.
    Apr 9 09:56 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Auto sales in China continued their ascent in March, rising 56% from a year earlier to a new monthly record of 1.74M vehicles. India auto sales jumped 25%.  [View news story]
    And in the US, we junked a net 4 million cars last year. This is called wealth transfer from the West to the East.
    Apr 9 09:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beat the S&P is Good Enough For Me [View instapost]
    We're all measuring against 1 thing and 1 thing only: Purchasing Power

    The metric everyone is up against is inflation and it's too bad we don't look at it like that. We can invest in just pretty much any asset class we want. The trick is choosing the right investments and the right classes. Choosing to be in the wrong class but happen to outperform others in the wrong class doesn't prove skillful investing.
    Apr 8 11:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Conflicting readings on consumer behavior this week, with retail sales spiking (I, II, III and IV) while consumer credit pulls back. "The [same-store] numbers were very strong," admits Howard Davidowitz, but it's a "sucker's rally" in retail stocks and any rebound in consumer spending will be short lived. The economy is "in a bad place, heading for a worse place."  [View news story]
    1 full time job openening for every 5.5 unemployed.. 1 in 10 for the underemployed and unemployed combined.

    over 18% of personal income coming from government social welfare payments and only 3.1% savings rate.

    7.5 million household late on mortgage payments and something like 4.5 million foreclosures expected this year.

    A. States are going broke.. good bye social welfare
    B. 99 week unemployment running out
    C. BofA ramping up foreclosures this year 600% I read on Calculated Risk blog.

    Meanwhile, Americans are spending away.
    Apr 8 03:42 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • March Same-Store Sales Surge to Best Levels Since 1999 [View article]
    Savings rate 3.1% and over 18% of Personal Income comes from Social Welfare payments.

    This is utterly pathetic.

    When they say never underestimate the American economy..they must mean never underestimate the American spending his last dollar on a new dress or an IPad.
    Apr 8 03:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Unemployment Claims Data Disappoints [View article]
    Employment situation remains dreadful. Yes, HD is hiring as are many $8 an hour jobs that will still qualify for food stamps.

    It seems everyone is spending that extra money on kindles and Ipads instead of saving (3.1% last month, down from 6.4% in May of 2009) it's hard to have pitty for those who are broke when the states run out of money for these programs aimed at covering up the crisis and doing whatever they can to prevent riots.
    Apr 8 02:46 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Recovery in Personal Income Has Yet to Begin [View article]
    Just watch that gasoline price. The consequence of all this money printing and hand outs will inevitably mean more dollars chasing the same amount of goods and that will lead to simply higher prices in food and energy.

    See food inflation in India and watch for $3+ gas in the US even though we're driving less as less people have a job to drive to and we junked 4 million more cars than we bought last year.
    Apr 8 01:37 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Charles Nenner's Trends and Trades: Investor's Roadmap for 2010-2011 [View article]
    I subscribed to Nenner for a bit.. not bad. I won't knock him. But this stuff is seriously hocus pocus.

    The money changers, FED and so on, they do what they want and screw around with markets as they please. Unless Nenner, with his GS connections, has insider info on what the parasitic fed is doing to do with respect to monetary policy, good luck figuring out when the next booms and busts will be.

    The bottom line is, this monetary system is broken now. Debt saturation has occurred. Monetary aggregates can grow, but productivity per capita per sq. kilometer is crashing and some serious problems lie ahead.

    The real economy continues to disintegrate and the only reason for the calm is because of the MASSIVE social welfare benefits.

    Nenner has been calling for a top since September.. but kept saying, cycles are on a buy signal.. he'd been saying that since September.

    Like Harry Dent, another whom I've subscribed and have even more respect for, this stuff is hard to predict.

    Invest in yourself and invest like an owner, not a trader. Your chances of success are far far greater.

    Or just work and accumulate gold and silver. I like that idea better.
    Apr 8 12:23 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Recovery in Personal Income Has Yet to Begin [View article]
    Hotel Occupancy worse THIS PAST WEEK VS LAST YEAR.

    www.calculatedriskblog...

    Yes, the green shoots have withered.
    Apr 8 12:03 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
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