Jason Tillberg

Foreclosure Double Whammy For Homebuilders

I shorted TOL back in August of 2005, but covered 3 months later. Been very bearish on housing since.

People need to remember that house prices and starts declined every year from 1925-1933. But the steepest declined occured after the stock market crash. We are basically revisiting that cycle. We peaked in late 2005 and have declined every year since. Once the stock markets crash, and I believe they will once the commodity bubble bursts, house prices will have their bigget fall yet.

It's all in the cycles... predictable stuff