Jason Tillberg

Has the Market Decoupled from Economic Reality?

Bubble in the making.. more like bubble made. AMZN for example.

Five Reasons to Be Bullish

With respect to Rome, their currency was debased to base metals and trade nearly stopped.

The soundness of a nations money supply is in direct proportion to the soundness of a nations government.. as if anyone doesn't already know that.

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

Now there are some bold calls. I would welcome such a scenario.


On Sep 29 09:26 AM JG Savoldi wrote:

> Per the World Bank's dollar statement--interesting that bearishness
> is so intense just at the time our model has become very bullish.
>
>
> We've been USD bears for a long period of time but we're expecting
> an upside stampede during the coming weeks.
>
> Not a great time for markets correlated to the dollar carry trade
> and that's also being confirmed in our other models.
>
> -Stocks down (50% crash next 5 months starting with a projected 22%
> crash into October 13th)
>
> -Bonds up (minimum target for the 30YR is 130.30 but we think new
> all-time highs are coming)
>
> -USD spiking higher during October
>
> -Crude Oil crashing during October and back through 36 into year-end
>
>
> -Gold down into October 900-880 target.
>
> You can read articles about our 50% crash call and follow all of
> these forecasts in real-time on Twitter through October 11th by following
> the links below.
>
> bit.ly/yVBgt
> bit.ly/l3hv8

Jacob Hurwitz: Market Upswing Will Continue

When someone goes from losing his $20 an hour job to landing a $10 an hour job and then gets a raise to $11 an hour, this is not something to get overly excited about.

When you look at how much we borrowed from our kids and grandkids through stimulus and the result we got, its' pathetic.

$15 billion was spent for first time home buyer incentive and it only landed an additional 350,000 additional home sales. That's $43,000 for each additional house. Another disaster.

Discretionary Spending as a Market Timing Tool

The peak we saw in 2007 is the greatest peak in the history of the world in my opinion. The baby boom generation of America participated in the greatest boom in the history of the world. The debt they created in the process however will prove disastrous.

We don't have much to look forward to in the next 10+ years. Lots of deleverageing thats for sure.

Will the Market 'Melt Up'?

The market melted up already. IYR melted up in the last 2 months. FNM, AIG, C all melted up.

Be fearful when others are greedy.

Trading Week Outlook: August 24 - 28, 2009

And what is that rate of deflation now? 2.1%
inflationdata.com/infl...

Future write downs will only create a stronger case for a stronger dollar. Dollars desperately needed to pay debt service payments and principle back.

Then in 2-4 years, with government debt gone wild, inflation will come back uber strong and interest rates on debt will soar plummeting low yielding bonds/CRE/home prices even further. Credit will be next to non-existent.

That's the writing I see on the wall.


On Aug 23 01:02 PM MIT economics & finance wrote:

> There may not be any force or power on this planet that can stop
> this bull market. Interest rates still at zero with NO plans to raise
> them. DJIA 14,000 within 2 years? 20,000 within 4 years? maybe<br/>
>
> good articles: www.iamned.com

'Green Shoots' Are a Mirage: Economy Will Deteriorate Further

I've got better. The level of stocks bullish on point and figure is near 80. I don't think it's ever been that high.

seekingalpha.com/insta...


On Aug 13 09:55 PM 437339 wrote:

> Re
>
> Previous to Every market crash in US history , the RSI was OVER 70
> .
> IT is now 75 .

Why This Rally Will Continue

51% of AAII members bullish now. The last time the bulls were 50% or more was in May of 2008 when the Dow was 13,000.

The optimism is exactly what the market needs to top out.

Baltic Dry Index is down now for the 13th straight day. Global economy is slowing folks.

Dow Target 6,617, October 25, 2009: Here Is Why

AAII listed its results of its investor sentiment survey. 50% Bullish.

The last time they were 50% or more bullish was in May of 2008 when the Dow was 13,000.

What does that tell you about the euphoria at 9260?

Federal Tax Revenue Is Plummeting: Don't Worry, The Government Will Take Care of It

I never hear any ever mention Lyndon LaRouche. He's a rather smart man from what I've read of his works. He insists we declare bankruptcy NOW. Reorganize, end the Fed and create the nations 3rd National Bank. Sites October being the time when America gets it's wake up call to just how bad things are.

www.larouchepac.com/no...

Dow Target 6,617, October 25, 2009: Here Is Why

Judging by most comments, many are in denial that we are headed for a depression in 2010-2012.

Tech boom peaked in 2008 when 90% of households now have internet and cell phones.

Just today CSCO Chairman Chambers said economy still bad. Their revenues are down 18% from a year ago in light of MASSIVE stimulous. What does that tell you?

Baby Boomers demographic has move beyond peak spending years in 2008 as well. They are now SAVERS and will be risk adverse.

This is not much different to the generation of the 20's when by 1928, nearly 90% of households owned a car and had radios.

De leverage or join the ranks of now 34 Million Americans getting food stamps. (That's only reason why we don't have bread lines stretching miles in major cities in America today)

Dow Target 6,617, October 25, 2009: Here Is Why

I'm also long Gold and Silver.


On Aug 05 10:48 AM TWS Investments wrote:

> The market will not see lows again in nominal terms. When the government
> turns on the printing press, asset prices inflate. And, in this
> case, inflate dramatically. In real terms, you may be right, but
> don't expect the charts to tell you where we will be as the Fed destroys
> the dollar.
>
> It is foolish to be short when the printing presses are running.

Dow Target 6,617, October 25, 2009: Here Is Why

Foreclosure buying helps explain home sales. ISM being up probably on account of stimulus. They are still in the toilet.

research.stlouisfed.or...[1][id]=DGORDER&s[...

3.bp.blogspot.com/_pMs...


On Aug 05 08:40 AM Roger Knights wrote:

> "How do you explain existing home sales on the rise, ISM index approaching
> 50, etc. "
>
> Overhanging debt, deflationary real estate prices and declining tax
> revenues, among other things, will prevent efforts at recovery from
> gaining traction. This is not an ordinary business recession.

Dow Target 6,617, October 25, 2009: Here Is Why

From ZeroHedge: "And while earnings are now supposed to increase by 114.9% in two quarters by inhaling green shoots and what not, more curious is out of what hat will revenues stage a dramatic 22% increase in just 6 months."

www.zerohedge.com/arti...


On Aug 05 09:05 AM Obi-Wan wrote:

> It's interesting that you say 'earnings estimates are way too optimistic'
> when there's a stampede of folks yelling that the reason some 77%
> of companies BEAT expections this quarter was becasue they were too
> conservative.....
>
> For every yin....a yang I suppose.....