Jason Tillberg

Dow Target 6,617, October 25, 2009: Here Is Why

AAII listed its results of its investor sentiment survey. 50% Bullish.

The last time they were 50% or more bullish was in May of 2008 when the Dow was 13,000.

What does that tell you about the euphoria at 9260?

Dow Target 6,617, October 25, 2009: Here Is Why

Judging by most comments, many are in denial that we are headed for a depression in 2010-2012.

Tech boom peaked in 2008 when 90% of households now have internet and cell phones.

Just today CSCO Chairman Chambers said economy still bad. Their revenues are down 18% from a year ago in light of MASSIVE stimulous. What does that tell you?

Baby Boomers demographic has move beyond peak spending years in 2008 as well. They are now SAVERS and will be risk adverse.

This is not much different to the generation of the 20's when by 1928, nearly 90% of households owned a car and had radios.

De leverage or join the ranks of now 34 Million Americans getting food stamps. (That's only reason why we don't have bread lines stretching miles in major cities in America today)

Dow Target 6,617, October 25, 2009: Here Is Why

I'm also long Gold and Silver.


On Aug 05 10:48 AM TWS Investments wrote:

> The market will not see lows again in nominal terms. When the government
> turns on the printing press, asset prices inflate. And, in this
> case, inflate dramatically. In real terms, you may be right, but
> don't expect the charts to tell you where we will be as the Fed destroys
> the dollar.
>
> It is foolish to be short when the printing presses are running.

Dow Target 6,617, October 25, 2009: Here Is Why

Foreclosure buying helps explain home sales. ISM being up probably on account of stimulus. They are still in the toilet.

research.stlouisfed.or...[1][id]=DGORDER&s[...

3.bp.blogspot.com/_pMs...


On Aug 05 08:40 AM Roger Knights wrote:

> "How do you explain existing home sales on the rise, ISM index approaching
> 50, etc. "
>
> Overhanging debt, deflationary real estate prices and declining tax
> revenues, among other things, will prevent efforts at recovery from
> gaining traction. This is not an ordinary business recession.

Dow Target 6,617, October 25, 2009: Here Is Why

From ZeroHedge: "And while earnings are now supposed to increase by 114.9% in two quarters by inhaling green shoots and what not, more curious is out of what hat will revenues stage a dramatic 22% increase in just 6 months."

www.zerohedge.com/arti...


On Aug 05 09:05 AM Obi-Wan wrote:

> It's interesting that you say 'earnings estimates are way too optimistic'
> when there's a stampede of folks yelling that the reason some 77%
> of companies BEAT expections this quarter was becasue they were too
> conservative.....
>
> For every yin....a yang I suppose.....

ProShares ETFs: Strongest Technical Buy and Sell Signals

Is this supposed to be contrarian? Where was this guy at the end of April when the smart money was buying the ultrashort ETFs .. 10% - 40% gains ago...

If this is the "dumb money", I may have to sell my ultra shorts soon..