Jason Tillberg

Interesting Points from Julian Robertson's FT Interview

JR..Just a rational man who got his big start to wealth in 1982, at just the right time to participate in the greatest boom in the history of the world. Lucky for him.

Long AAPL, dumb in my opinion. It's like being long MSFT in 1999. Dumb.

I don't give him much weight. Sorry, I just don't.

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

Now there are some bold calls. I would welcome such a scenario.


On Sep 29 09:26 AM JG Savoldi wrote:

> Per the World Bank's dollar statement--interesting that bearishness
> is so intense just at the time our model has become very bullish.
>
>
> We've been USD bears for a long period of time but we're expecting
> an upside stampede during the coming weeks.
>
> Not a great time for markets correlated to the dollar carry trade
> and that's also being confirmed in our other models.
>
> -Stocks down (50% crash next 5 months starting with a projected 22%
> crash into October 13th)
>
> -Bonds up (minimum target for the 30YR is 130.30 but we think new
> all-time highs are coming)
>
> -USD spiking higher during October
>
> -Crude Oil crashing during October and back through 36 into year-end
>
>
> -Gold down into October 900-880 target.
>
> You can read articles about our 50% crash call and follow all of
> these forecasts in real-time on Twitter through October 11th by following
> the links below.
>
> bit.ly/yVBgt
> bit.ly/l3hv8

Gold Above $1,000: Indicative of an Imminent Market Fall?

Write downs? Where were they last quarter? You have some 13% of total mortgages delinquent, yet banks didn't have much write downs.

Soon, 50% of all mortgage holders will be underwater. Completely broke and earnings less money than before if they are lucky to have a job.

When the write downs come, I suspect the dollar will rally as people scramble to get dollars to pay down their debt.

The debt is still there. Equity can easily evaporate and I suspect at some point, we will see a massive liquidation and monster crisis.

I put time frame between now and as late as end of 2012.

New Bullish Signals Emerge

5 month rally, up 45%.. it's done.

We should correct from here very shortly.

Missed the Break-Out? It's Coming Back

AAII sentiment has 56% of folks bearish on July 8th. I had gut feeling that was too high for market to fall further. I should have followed my gut and lightened up on my shorts.

VIX going up with the market today is interesting.

Market is wickedly unpredictable.

Could the Dow Sink Another 50% by 2012?

I'm with Dent and now Soros, also Ron Paul as we are in for a slowdown of at least 10 - 15 years.

No one mentioned peak oil in this forecast either.

1340's all over again?

Metals Manipulation - Or Simply Deleveraging?

Wow, that XAU to gold ratio I just calculated is .117

$880 gold and XAU at 103 .. ok, so is this not the most extreme disconnect ever?

Metals Manipulation - Or Simply Deleveraging?

Bob wrote a great article and has proved very right. Silver and gold stocks are now soaring and for good reason.

Metals Manipulation - Or Simply Deleveraging?

"There is something really bad about to happen. I am not sure what it is. But it's going to rocket gold and kill the dollar."

All year long has been this degree of randomness of "bad things happening."

The XAU/Gold ratio I did not realize was at such an extreme. Will be very interesting to see how it all plays out.

The Disconnect Between Supply and Demand in Gold & Silver Markets

Ebay: search.ebay.com/search...=

Gold (and Gartman) Haunting Some Investors

What's inflation again? What's the interest you're getting in your savings bank? How much money does FDIC have left before it runs out and no longer will peoples fiat savings be safe? How much does the US pay for its global empire building each year and how much do we need to borrow from China? How much was it congress gave the treasury to increase the US debt? What's next years budget deficit again? How does the saying go, he who has what make the rules? What's M3 up to? .. oh yeah, they don't publish. How much more does housing need to fall to get back to normal valuations? What's the total equity left in US residential real estate? What was it that Helicopter Ben said he would do to prevent deflation? ( I left a hint in that one)

Those who don't know these answers will think gold has peaked. Those who have knowledge know otherwise.

Wall Street can be looked at as a place where smart people take money from dumb people.

What's Behind the Market's Rise?

Great stuff,article and comments. I've been watching the VIX and I'm a bit surprised it has come down as low as it has. I found myself to be a buyer of short funds, SKF, SRS and DXD these last 2 weeks. I do think that this momentum will reverse.

Investor psychology Vs. economic reality will cause stocks to go up and down over the next 3 years as it ultimitely comes down at least 50% in my opinion.

Money: Inflation, Deflation and Gold

Very well written, thanks.