Jay Norris

Momentum, research analyst, macro, pattern recognition
Jay Norris
Momentum, research analyst, macro, pattern recognition
Contributor since: 2012
Company: Trading University
One thing I know for sure, Fed officials are smarter than me, and darn well smarter than most journalists. Out here in Middle-America (IL) we are doing just fine. Retail Services and Durable Goods continue to grow, and there is still plenty of "keeping up w/ the Jones'" re: new trucks and pools and back-yard decks in the towns and subdivisions all around. So if we were to blame the Fed if things were going south I guess we need to pat them on the back now that things are going well. Re: raising rates, it's the same as advising impatient children on an eta: we'll get there when we get there.
I refer to unfounded market fears by the "Tradionalist" demographic, many of who are also 'gold bugs" as "Old-man-ism". I have seen it happen to the best of them. As they get closer to that point where they feel the inevitable passing is getting closer it's natural that they surmise the system which supported them for the past 65 or 70 years is also in decline. But it ain't.
Well said Sir,
My method tells me gold is sewing in intermediate-term support right now -- which is of some interest to me as a trader because old gold is a decent forward indicator. However, I"d rather just trade long euro for a short-term hop. (When taking a counter-trend trade I always trade the market w/ the most open interest -- i.e.: has the potential for the largest short-squeeze) From an investor's standpoint however -- which in this game is all that really counts -- gold is not a buy. Cyclical or secular or grand pattern it's all a bear to me. My core position is long UUP.
Hi Cebu Sun,
I definitely see your point, and I'm proud of the extensive work we have done on that very subject. We break the markets down into their tradable patterns -- 5-day, 10-day, 25-day etc and only enter trades/positions when we have the majority of patterns aligned -- very simple concept, very effective. We have almost completed a year of real time forecasts -- on YouTube see: http://bit.ly/1GUu99h -- as proof of the ability to predict markets.
Hi Kangiwa, hope your doing well. My best book is my third book: http://amzn.to/1vLRnbF
2 years later...
Dan Big Cow from the RPGA?
Thanks Kangiwa,
Every thing I write about is based on: http://amzn.to/1156WtW
Hi King,
I'm thinking the same thing...
HI Fiberwolf8, I completely agree. I keep looking for reasons to be not so bullish but I only keep getting more bullish...
Best to you!
Thanks KoP. You're welcome, and thank you for your thoughtful comments!
Thanks Rosenkreuz, I have the advantage of only writing after much observation and thought. I feel for people who are expected to write every day -- like chewing on the same finger nail all week...
Thanks Leopardtrader, I know you know a bit about these things. best to you and yours!
Thank you Rosenkreuz. It takes a lot of effort to write sometimes, so it darn well better be truthful and worthwhile. It would be nearly impossible I imagine to write something worthwhile every day...
This is my masterpiece to date: http://amzn.to/1156WtW
I"m sorry if my work comes off a bit technical, it's primarily written for my students -- http://www.trading-u.com -- who have have studied the method behind it.
HI Picolomini,
Yes the Euro has secondary support down to 126, while the majority of patterns are bearish.
I'm a trader, and I teach trading. I'm not an economist. My job is to make money by trading, and show my cleints the same. The key is making money. I'm confident that when the time comes we will also be able to benefit from a weaker dollar also. But in this current environment the path of least resistance in making money is long the Greenback. Better to make money than argue w/ the market.
Hi Skyzer,
Doesn't matter when, only that Fed will most likely be first to reel it in. Europe is just starting QE.
Hi Abegaz, certainly we can't rule out a correction in either usdjpy or stocks...it's likely safe to say if we have a correction in one we will see it in the other.
Thanks Loopit, I'm goign to try that
Your welcome Kangiwa, come see us in live markets at: http://bit.ly/ZvviMr
Hi Kangiwa,
NO! The opposite. Find what works and stick to it!
Hi Guys,
Jsf, I disagree, when you incorporate R:R as a filter it improves your winning percentage. We are doing some great work in using Risk Tolerance Threshold Levels to not only identify trade set-ups, but then use the RTT levels in the opposite direction for profit targets, with the risk having to be inline w/ that 1.4 ot 1.5. We are seeing that by not taking the trades when the R:R doens't justify it we are avodiing losers. hard to describe out side a live demonsration...
HI iEconomists, nope...still waitng here
I agree Kangiwa, and the Aussie is not in the U.S. Dollar index so a strong Greenback does not mean a weak Aussie by default. Both currencies can continue to strengthen...
I agree Kangiwa, and the Aussie is not in the U.S. Dollar index so a strong Greenback does not mean a weak Aussie by default. Both currencies can continue to strengthen...
Hi Kevin,
Very tough business participating in counter-trend trades. Better to lose one's opinion not their money. IN early March we were taking sell signals in Aussie, now we are taking buy signals...not sentimental about either side...
Hi Kangiwa,
I agree
Thank you very much Summerset
On second thought I like 1.0350 for a possible top in Aussie/ U.S.
Great Point Gartley222,
Sleeping costs me a lot of money!