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Jay Norris
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Jay Norris is a 20-year CBOT floor veteran, author of the Best Seller "The Secret to Trading Forex, Futures, and ETFs: Risk Tolerance Threshold Theory", "Mastering the Currency Market", McGraw-Hill, 2009, and "Mastering Trade Selection and Management", McGraw-Hill,... More
My company:
Trading University
My blog:
Seeking Alpha
My book:
The Secret to Trading Forex, Futures, and ETF's: Risk Tolerance Threshold
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  • ESignal Weekly Forex & Futures Forecast For Monday, 1-20-14

    eSignal Weekly Forex & Futures Forecast for Monday, 1-20-14

    In this week's financial markets report author and trading instructor Jay Norris highlights potential trading opportunities in the major currency and commodity markets.

    The weekly forecast highlights a potential sea-change move higher for the U.S. Dollar and lower for the European currency. And covers the very recent phenomena of gold strengthening in the face of a strong dollar, pointing out markets long term tendency of shifting correlations based on different economic environments.

    Jay also points out a long-term food and energy investment play he likes: dollar cost averaging the ETF CORN starting at current levels.

    To view the YouTube Video go to: Weekly Forex & Futures Forecast

    Jay Norris teaches trading at Trading University

    Trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.

    Disclosure: I am long UUP.

    Jan 18 9:17 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Two Clouds Lifted From U.S. Dollar Landscape

    President Obama's speech today in defense of the U.S. intelligence community on the heels of a bipartisan budget agreement in Washington countered very real fears for global investors. This on top of Washington's reining in of Wall Street's speculative ways are definitely positive for long-term U.S. growth, and exactly what local and global leaders want to see.

    (click to enlarge)
    Figure 1. Weekly U.S. Dollar chart

    We see it as no coincidence that the U.S. Dollar is currently breaking higher.

    Jay Norris teaches at Trading University and wrote The Secret to Trading: Risk Tolerance Threshold Theory.

    Trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.

    Disclosure: I am long UUP.

    Jan 17 12:41 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Shades Of Corn In 2006 In Dollar Of 2014

    In 2006 I did not fully understand that markets have a tendency to often "reset" just prior to a large price move. I also did not know beans about corn but I did know that every commodity broker from Chicago to Dallas was telling their clients that corn was going to double in price. Now any time a broker tells you something that sounds too good to be true, it usually is. But here is the tricky part, it did come true. But most of those calls and long futures contracts that all those brokers had begged their clients to get into did not pay off.
    (click to enlarge)
    Figure 1. Corn Weekly Chart in 2006

    The Sept '06 out-of-the-money calls expired worthless, and many of the long futures were stopped out below $2.20 when for no reason that an analyst could explain, corn turned south in July and early August and posted a lower low in the face of screaming bullish fundamentals. Once the public and half the trading pit's positions were stopped out, the corn was free to move higher.

    Everybody knew it was going higher, and it did, yet most of the participants lost money…

    (click to enlarge)
    Figure 2. The U.S. Dollar Weekly Chart Today

    I can't help but think of that market bottom in corn when looking at the U.S. Dollar today. Everybody thinks it's going higher, and it probably will.

    The trick is to balance the risk now, and increase it once price accelerates beyond the 2013 highs. This is the opposite of what many investors do. They go in heavy at the perceived bottom and lighten up once they get the acceleration. This is human nature, which is the opposite of the nature of markets.

    There is a priceless lesson in that corn chart for both investors and traders.

    Jay Norris teaches at Trading University and wrote The Secret to Trading: Risk Tolerance Threshold Theory.

    Trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.

    Disclosure: I am long UUP.

    Tags: UUP
    Jan 16 4:13 PM | Link | Comment!
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