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Jay Unni  

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  • Tesla Motors: Long Now, Short Later [View article]
    How are you calculating those odds? How are you calculating the eventual market cap of the company?
    Apr 25, 2013. 07:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors: Long Now, Short Later [View article]
    True, it is a step-down of the credits, not an end to the credits. The website linked in the article more fully explains the step-down procedure. You may be correct that the company will be established enough at that point to survive - but to make any judgments about that, we will have to see how cash flows shape up.
    Apr 25, 2013. 07:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors: Long Now, Short Later [View article]
    Be careful - once a self-reinforcing boom sets in, it may continue much longer than anyone expects!
    Apr 25, 2013. 05:13 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors: Long Now, Short Later [View article]
    True, significant global-warming-associated events could add to the less-tangible reasons for the boom. To make any conclusions about how the Model X changes the thesis, we would need additional information, namely whether the company is still dependent on financing cash flow for growth at that point, or whether it can grow its operating cash flow enough to cover capital expenditures, etc.
    Apr 25, 2013. 05:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors: Long Now, Short Later [View article]
    I thought I had covered these points, but perhaps I was not clear. I mentioned the Motor Trend award and the attractiveness of EVs in the "less tangible" section. I also believe that it will continue to outsell gas-powered rivals in the same price bracket as long as it continues to be placed in a lower price bracket, because of the credits. Whether this continues in the absence of the credits remains to be seen, but it is a risk that investors should bear in mind.
    Apr 25, 2013. 04:27 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investing In Undervalued Banks: BNCCorp And Bank Of Birmingham [View instapost]
    Thank you for the reply. You have pointed out a significant error in my analysis.

    In fact, 87% of BBBI's loan portfolio is made up of commercial loans, related to the commercial development you discussed. I generally regard commercial loans as a higher risk category than mortgage loans. In the current environment, coming off of a huge bust in commercial lending, these assets may be safer than they have been in the past, but still, this warrants consideration.

    The population growth and suburban migration will not directly help the commercial district of Birmingham unless those new citizens are willing to spend. The health of Birmingham's commercial district is difficult for me to assess from Texas, so I am left with a less bullish stance on BBBI.

    As for the de-listing, I am generally in favor of the move. It saves the bank money and keeps it off the radar while it is padding its books.
    Feb 19, 2013. 06:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Twilight Zone Is Over For 3D Systems Corporation (DDD) [View instapost]
    I was a little too eager to call an end to the twilight phase with this post. However, at the risk of sounding like the boy who cried wolf, I do think it has ended now. Here is an update on the trade:
    Feb 15, 2013. 01:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3D Systems Corporation: Implications Of Stock Price Reflexivity [View article]
    Ha, true, there are striking similarities. However I believe Elliot intended his theory as a more universal descriptor of stock behavior, whereas reflexive boom-bust cycles are rare in stock markets. In addition, Soros makes it clear that there is nothing determinate about the course of events in a cycle - not all booms are followed by busts. Soros places emphasis on the uncertainty of events and the fallibility of the market participant interpreting them. The model itself just provides a framework for understanding events as they unfold.
    Jan 3, 2013. 03:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3D Systems Corporation: Implications Of Stock Price Reflexivity [View article]
    The positive bias has a way of increasing the growth rate - the higher the stock price is, the faster it can acquire businesses. Thus the process can go on for a long time. I believe we are still in the self-reinforcing phase of growth, though a correction will eventually come.
    Dec 26, 2012. 12:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3D Systems Corporation: Implications Of Stock Price Reflexivity [View article]
    If I understand you correctly, you are saying that DDD can grow its customer base large enough through this reflexive process that later sales of plastic ink will be able to fill in the free cash flow gap currently being filled by stock sales.
    This is possible - the Print Materials segment carries a much higher profit margin than printer sales (68.3% vs 45.2%), and it is growing, albeit at a much slower pace than printer sales. Print Materials revenues are worth keeping a watch on. However earnings on the whole would have to increase another 250% to completely remove the reflexive relationship.
    Dec 26, 2012. 12:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Where Is The Inflection Point? [View article]
    Sorry to bring up an old article, but I think this has relevance in light of the pullbacks we saw from September to November.
    jbfiacco had a very intelligent comment - have share prices risen faster than earnings? And the answer is no, they have not.
    As Soros describes in Alchemy of Finance, reflexive stocks usually are dependent on cash flow from stock sales or debt issuance for growth to finance a large negative cash flow figure. In Apple's case, the company has a positive free cash flow, an order of magnitude larger than stock sales.
    However, I do believe there is a reflexive connection between perception and fundamentals at play here. The "cool factor" of Apple's products is a big part of its financial success. And I believe this cool factor is being eroded with the emergence of new products that also qualify as "cool".
    My question is this: do you still hold to the thesis? Do you believe that the pullback from September from November was the beginning of a larger fall in the stock?
    Dec 5, 2012. 02:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The iShares Philippines ETF: Tapping One Of The Last Bull Markets [View article]
    I agree that the Philippines is rapidly becoming a more attractive place for manufacturing than China, especially since the Chinese government is likely to continue to appreciate the yuan, which will decrease the attractiveness of Chinese exports.
    I did not realize that the Philippines were such a cultural fit, and that the country has already surpassed India as a call center destination ( This gives them a strong leg up to start taking over other business process outsourcing jobs.
    Nov 5, 2012. 09:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BNCCorp: A Cigar Butt That's Worth The Risk [View article]
    The private offering is withdrawn, and is up 150% since the writing of this article.
    Sep 6, 2012. 07:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Buckle Is On Sale [View article]
    George Soros states that prices are determined by the interaction of fundamentals, perceptions, and price patterns. However, in the absence of the issuance of debt and shares, the perceptions and price patterns of a stock have no means to influence the underlying fundamentals of the company. In cases like this, an investment based on fundamentals is basically a bet that in the long term, the increasingly positive fundamentals will eventually cause perceptions to turn positive, and thus cause prices to rise.
    Since The Buckle issues no debt, and has only issued small amounts of stock in recent quarters as parts of compensation packages, I believe that The Buckle represents an opportunity for such a bet. The perception and price patterns are negative currently, versus positive fundamental data.
    I believe that the decline from $50 was probably warranted; the P/E at $50 was 15.19, and the cash-backed out P/E was 13.78, both of which were higher than the growth rate of 12.97%. This overvaluation was caused by positive company fundamentals in an environment of positive perceptions; the higher than expected economic data in the first quarter created an environment of excessive optimism.
    But the positive price moves eventually stopped and turned over, and perceptions did as well. Bank of America's initiation of The Buckle at Underperform on May 11 helped fuel the price slide. But I think this slide is overdone and perceptions are more negative than the fundamental data suggest.
    I am no expert at technical analysis. If you understand the price patterns of the stock and these have led you to probable outcomes, then that is great; I understand that technical analysis is useful and has a high success rate. Edson Gould's methods seem interesting, and I will have to investigate them further, along with other means of technical analysis.
    However with the tools I currently have available, it looks like The Buckle is selling at a discount to its fair value.
    Using Value Line's estimate of 12X cash flow and TTM free cash flow, we can get a reasonable market cap of $2.08 B, or $43.94/share. This suggests that Buckle would appreciate about 16% from today's closing price to reach fair value.
    Jun 18, 2012. 06:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Buckle Is On Sale [View article]
    The only retail chains I have seen with a smaller U.S. store footprint and fast store count growth are Zumiez (ZUMZ) and Lululemon (LULU). I might check out Zumiez if I were you. It's valued pretty high, and it depends on totally different trends (the popularity of BMX Biking and skating culture in the United States), however it might be an interesting investment, especially if the stock price comes down a bit.
    Jun 14, 2012. 03:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment