Jean-Christophe Larsimont

Jean-Christophe Larsimont
Contributor since: 2013
Hi Techy46, thanks for your comment. But just look at the link and even Google it, you'll find a lot of report.
@User144766 : read again what I wrote. I never mentioned that you were the one saying that exclusivity would drive sales towards PS4.
@User144766 : the point about having exclusive games is to drive the buyer toward your device and not the competing device. To do so, you need to make sure that the exclusive games are indeed, really exclusive. And that's not the case for a lot of games that you mentioned because they're present on other platforms and I wanted to clarify it. For example, you can't claim that Diablo 3 is exclusive since it's present on Xbox 360 (3rd september 2013), PS3 (3th september 2013), PC and Mac. It's NEVER going to drive the buyer toward the PS4.
User144766, your comment contains some mistakes. By exclusive games, we mean games that are available only on one platform. Therefore, games such as Diablo III, Blacklight Retribution and others can't be taken into account since they're also available on PC. The numbers I use are correct.
No. Because if my hypothesis is right, Microsoft should have a deal with them so that they keep developing games for the X1. In
Hi SimpleStuff,
Thanks a lot for your comment. Really appreciate. Indeed, I think that the aim of the X1 is to target a very large audience and that's why Microsoft focuses so much on everything that is around "pure gaming" such as TV, social media etc. As the point has ben extensively covered I didn't mention it but I think I should have. You comment add this point and therefore value to this article.
Thank you
JC
Great article Michael, as you usual. You already know about my position but your article made me think about buying some NOK.
Marcap, why do you ignore what people say?
If you had a look at the link I've provided in a previous comment (http://bit.ly/1750BWo), you would have seen that Kantar reported that from Q4 2011 to Q4 2012 in France : iOS progressed very slowly (+2%), Android sales exploded (+12%), RIM died (-8%) and Windows Phone progressed a bit (+0,5%). Now, have a look at what happens worldwide during the same period with the website you provided : http://bit.ly/11ApPrM
Exactly the same trend : iOS progressed very slowly (around 2% also), Android sales exploded (+12%), RIM died (-4%) and no data about Windows phone (using Nokia as you did as totaly flawed sinced it also take Symbian into account) but we all know that WP progressed a bit worldwide during this period.
So the fact is that France follows the same trends than the rest of the world, your website is just not accurate enough for single country data and it needs deeper research. And as I live here, I can further confirm you that indeed, Apple progressed slowly, you can see Android phones all around, Windows Phones progressed and that before the Z10 and the Q10, it was rare to see a BBRY.
Marcap, your comment is totally wrong. Could you please compare the trends in mobile OS market shares in France VS World and tell me, with numbers, if you still have this opinion?
MajorDude,
You still don't get it. France is relevant not as a determiner of trends, but as a followers. Therefore, by looking at trends in France, you can have an idea about how it might be elsewhere.
Hi Karl,
I think I'm a "bit" late. I checked all the information regarding Novavax and no news so far since the 10th of May. Note that they announced that animal testing were to last around 28 days. So my guess is that we'll know more about it this week or, more probably, the week after.
As I'm not able to provide you more, I made a little research about recent news.
The most reliable source of information that I found is the WHO report (31th may). Here's the link : http://bit.ly/ZDyN9m
Important information include :
-37 deaths out of 132 cases (28%)
-Human have very little or no existing cross protective immunity (it implies that vaccine for other strains are indeed inefficient at providing protective cross immunity)
-The virus is resitant to M2 inhibitors.
-Some cases of Tamiflu resistance have been reported (http://bloom.bg/14ZFkMv)
Regards
JC
Hi HSV,
Regarding point 1, I asked SFR again for more information regarding the way they rank the best selling phones. This time I got no answer. So basically I have still no clue about the time frame.
About point 2, we don't really know the margins that both Apple and BBRY obtain from sales at SFR so it's quite hard to answer that. But keep in mind that BBRY was in green at Q4 2012 without the BB10s. So to me, despite the bias present in this article, BB10 are a success and will massively contribute to BBRY's revenues. I don't think comparing BBRY to Apple is somehow relevant for the moment. They're very different companies and although they partially occupy the same market, it doesn't make sense to compare them (at least for the moment) except a comparison with iPhone.
Regarding point 3, I really have no idea since I live in Belgium, not in France. Sorry about that.
Thanks for you comment!
JC
Totally understand your points.
Tried again to obtain more information from SFR about that but no answer so far. I think it's rather hopeless. What is funny is that the ranking just changed today (kind of weird uh?). Even with that change, it's still selling better than Xperia Z and iPhone 5 so I'm rather happy about the prediction.
We will have a factual report on Q2 in about 4 months, can't wait to know whether I was right or not.
Hi,
I'm not sure I correctly understood your point but here's my answer :
Although not physical, the keyboard of the iPhone can be set up as AZERTY. It's therefore not related.
JC
How do you know that SFR changed the ranking based on that ?
Second, your comment is wrong. Even if the S4 and the HTC One were to sell more than Q10, Q10 is still ahead of iPhone 5. And Q10 is still ahead of Xperia Z and iPhone 5. Therefore, saying that the WHOLE promise of this article is defunct doesn't make sense.
I think there's a word for it. It should be called "Plagia" or something.
Thanks Greg! Can't wait to read your next article!
Don't you think that shorts on TSLA were mainly professionals too ? I guess that at least a part of them was, but they were wrong anyway. Don't you think that there are a lot of professional that are long BBRY? I guess yes and if so, could you tell me why they would be wrong about BBRY while the short would be ?
Where did you see anyone that I mentioned that it wasn't an important fact ? Regarding the fact that I couldn't give you an answer, do you really think that the woman at the customer service is going to conduct intense research to find who wrote the code that rank the smartphones based on sales for me or you? I don't. Do you think that if I had the actual numbers, I wouldn't have gave it to you? I wrote this article to avoid biased analyses which are made by people who barely call some stores that they especially picked with no precise reason and who makes claims based on the subjective impressions of sellers who agreed to answer gave them. While there are still some bias in this metholody such as the ones described in other comments, this is so far the only study to adress the problem with facts and not impression. I agree that the time frame is important, but it doesn't mean that we can't extract some information out of it. A lot of people are saying that Q10 and Z10 are total flop. Here, you can easily understand that it's not the case, whatever the time frame is since the Z10 was launched a while ago and isn't subject to "launch effect".
Thanks Michael, really appreciate your work!
I really would like the see your proof that Blackberry Q10 and Z10 are indeed a total flop.
Your second paragraph results from a lack of understanding of the smartphone market. Although we don't know the timeframe of SFR ranking, we know that it's about a short time (a few weeks or a few monthes probably). When looking at the market shares to understand the sales of Q10 and Z10, you're looking at the changes that the sales of two new smartphones are making on the market shares and even if the sales are good, you won't see a real clear impact among the million of phones that are already present on the market. This analysis is only relevant over extended period of time.
I contacted them but couldn't obtain an answer. Sorry about that.
Thanks for you comment Michael! Really appreciate.
Totally agree. That's one of the drawbacks of this technique. But as mentioned by others, it doesn't mean that a 2nd or 3rd place is a bad performance. What is the most interesting to me is that the Q10 and Z10 are selling surprisingly good.
What you don't understand is that it's not about France, it's not about influence neither, it's about trends. As you can see in this article (in French but just have a look at the chart http://bit.ly/1750BWo) the market in France follows more or less the same trends as other markets and here I use it as an indicator.
Thanks for your comment. Q10 is sold for 59.99€ and Z10 for 29.99€.
Amazing analysis Mr Mauyen!
Hi Karl,
Thanks for your comment. Indeed this is what I'm talking about. The article went through a long reviewing (18 days) so I tried to put some little updates everytime I was sending the article to the editors but for sure they were not huge paragraphs (I guess you can easily understand it since news are coming everyday). I think I won't find the time to answer you today but I promise you to do it tomorrow with a comprehensive update about this point.
Same here in Belgium. When I first bought a Lumia 610 for my brother, the seller ask me "Why do you want this one ? There is this Acer right there with Android". Then I told him that me and some friends had bad experiences with some Android device because they were very badly supported (I had an HTC Wildfire) and I didn't want to go for entry level Android phones anymore. Then he told me that it was better not to take a Windows Phone, I asked him why and he told me that they had less applications. I told him that the average guy will never use more than 5 apps like Facebook Whatsapp etc and that all these application were available on the Windows Store. He just didn't reply and I bought that 610. My brother has been very happy with that phone since the day he recieved it. After that, I bought a 920 and recently moved to a 820. All these three phones are amazing, they're well supported and there are just no negative points about them, which is what we all wants.
Interesting piece of analysis. However, I don't share your view about the fact that Microsoft doesn't need WP to succeed. They clearly know that if the post PC era really happens, they'll need to propose a competitive solution on mobile devices such as smartphones and tablets. And that's why they've been investing a lot (regarding the few revenues generated by this activity, as you mention in your article) and most of their last events were focussing on WP. Accordingly, in january of last year, each device costed Microsoft 250$ per phone (before any royalty pauments, http://bit.ly/ZDWk4F).
Thanks for your comment Rosilyn. I agree that, as you mentioned, a part of diabetic patients suffers from a condition that can't be treated by exercising. However, a large part of them neglects exercise while it's the number 1 "drug" with an adaptated diet. I also would like to clarify the following point : in your comment, you said "since diabetes also increases one's risk of stroke, and by the way, also increases the risk of genital mycotic (fungus and yeast) infections.". However, the comparison was done between two groups of diabetic patients, one was given Invokana and the other recieved control. Therefore, the increase in cases is not due to diabetes but rather to Invokana. And this is expected regarding Invokana's mechanism of action.
But indeed, the balance between pros and cons is still to be clarified, probably the reason why FDA ask for postmark studies
Thanks for your comment. Indeed you got the point, a big part of the problem is about people's behaviour.
It's even mentioned by FDA : "The U.S. Food and Drug Administration today approved Invokana (canagliflozin) tablets, USED WITH DIET AND EXERCISE".