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Jeff Clark is Editor of BIG GOLD and Explorers’ League at Casey Research (http://www.caseyresearch.com). Having worked on his family’s gold claims in California and Arizona, as well as a mine in a place to remain nameless, these days Jeff Clark focuses on following some of the most successful... More
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  • Why Aren't These Investors Worried About The Gold Price?

    Have you noticed that some gold investors don't seem very concerned about the current behavior of gold?

    While the price remains weak and range-bound, some gold investors don't seem worried about it at all.

    The natural reaction to an asset you own losing a third of its value, with seemingly little motivation to move higher, is cheerless and maybe even depressing. So why aren't they?

    Are they out of touch? Perhaps have nothing at stake? Are they the kind of investors that would go down with the ship?

    Or do they know something we don't?

    Gold's Cycles

    The resource markets are well known for moving in cycles, probably more than most other markets. Raging bull market, crippling bear market, repeat. This includes gold and silver.

    Yes, catalysts can impact the price along the way-a big discovery, government interventions, and good ol' supply and demand. But the context that determines how the price ultimately performs in a given period is where we are in the cycle.

    Cycles never repeat with the same length or breadth, but they distinctly boom and bust, over and over again. The data doesn't tell us exactly when gold's next upcycle will get underway, nor how big it will be, but it does tell us this: another bull cycle is coming.

    We charted the major cycles for gold and silver from 1975-when gold again became legal to own in the US-to present.

    Here are gold's cycles.

    Since 1975, gold has logged eight major price cycles. While no two are identical, our recent downcycle has been one of the longest on record. It's also been slightly bigger than the average percentage decline.

    Regardless of the nominal price, gold has repeatedly cycled between bull markets and bear markets.

    Given the prolonged nature of the current bear market, history suggests that the current down cycle is about over. It doesn't mean the next bull market will start tomorrow, but it does indicate that the next major cycle will be up, regardless of short-term fluctuations.

    Silver also has prominent cycles.

    In terms of percentage decline, silver's recent downcycle is the second biggest on record. This is a strong indication that silver's bottom is in.

    And like gold, the picture shows that the next big cycle is up.

    So what does all this mean to us? Setting the timing aside, history says…

    • The current downcycle in the precious metals market has exceeded historical averages.
    • Given the extent of the selloff, particularly with silver, the bottom for these markets is likely in.
    • The pattern of market cycles means the next major trend for our industry is UP. We don't know when, but history says it is coming.

    In other words, the gains ahead could be tremendous. Preparing now for the next upcycle is key to your future wealth.

    Those unworried gold investors are very cognizant of these historical patterns. Not only do they know another bull cycle is coming, but given the extent of the selloff and the monetary malfeasance of governments the world over, they fully expect to become wealthy from it. They're positioning their portfolios right now in anticipation of a major shift in wealth.

    You can hear what they're doing in our online event Going Vertical. Eight stars of the mining industry and seasoned resource investors discuss the historic opportunity the current market offers and the best ways to prepare your portfolio for a shot at true wealth when the gold market inevitably rallies again. Watch Franco-Nevada's Pierre Lassonde… Casey Research Chairman Doug Casey… Pretium's Bob Quartermain… Sprott US Holdings Chairman Rick Rule… Aben Resources' Ron Netolitzky… US Global Investors CEO Frank Holmes… and Casey Research metals experts Jeff Clark and Louis James. Don't miss this free special event-watch Going Vertical now!

    Tags: gold, silver
    Mar 20 1:51 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Will Warren Buffett Really Let This Deep Value Slip By?

    Right now, even the staunchest gold investors are weary of the years-long drubbing the gold price has taken since its $1,921 peak in August 2011. Whether the frustrating experience is the work of a market-rigging conspiracy, government manipulation of data to hide inflation, those blindingly loyal Keynesians who keep pounding us with messages that gold is nothing but a "shiny bitcoin," or the gullibility of mainstream investors who tell themselves that, gee, since Warren Buffett is a billionaire, his "gold has no utility" mantra must be right, it hasn't been fun. The nasty downcycle has offered no respite.

    That's all about to change.

    If there's one constant in the resource sector, it's the boom-bust-repeat cycle that over the past 40 years has been almost predictable. This is particularly the case with gold stocks.

    We charted every major cycle for gold stocks (producers) from 1975-when gold again became legal to own in the US-to the present. You can easily see that not only do gold stocks cycle up and down repeatedly, but the percentage gains for buyers at a cycle bottom can be downright mouthwatering.

    What's interesting about where we sit today in early 2015 is that gold stocks have now logged the second-deepest bear market since 1975-rougher even than the selloff following the 1980 mania.

    This history teaches three "how to get rich" lessons.

    1. For the recent bear market, the bottom for gold stocks is almost certainly in.

    2. The next major cycle in gold stocks will be up.

    3. The profits could be spectacular, because as the patterns show, triple-digit gains have been common.

    Gold stocks have finished the bust that tormented investors for more than three years and are now preparing for another boom. All you have to do is hold on and wait for the next cycle to begin. No timing required.

    The only thing we don't know is if Mr. Buffett will see this chart and jump on the in-your-face deep value that gold stocks are showing right now.

    Gold stocks will soon go vertical again-just as they have many times in the past-and investors with just a smidgen of patience will see their gold portfolios driven by a hurricane-force bull market. Virtually all gold stocks will go much higher. As in the past, gains for the strongest juniors will be 10-to-1, and you can expect a few superstars to return 100-to-1.

    I talk about this rich opportunity with some of the most successful investors in the gold sector-Pierre Lassaonde, Frank Holmes, Rick Rule, Bob Quartermain, Ron Netolitzky, Doug Casey, and Louis James. Check out our free webcast, Going Vertical, a can't-miss one-hour event that will show you the life-changing profits waiting just ahead.

    And yes, we extend our invitation to Warren Buffett.

    Tags: gold
    Mar 13 2:52 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Why You Should Listen To This Man About Gold

    Would you like your advice from someone who has been successful or from someone who's failed? I'd prefer to hear from a winner.

    Now that the gold market has been mauled by a bear, we can sort out the pretenders from the contenders in the mining industry. After all, there's nothing like a major down cycle to reveal which companies are run by people who know how to prepare for bad weather.

    The price of gold has fallen more than a third since August 2011, crushing the prices of gold stocks... but not all of them.

    Check out the performance of Franco Nevada (NYSE:FNV).

    FNV shares have actually risen in this bear market. Even if you bought the stock when gold peaked in 2011, you're sitting on a profit. How many gold stocks can make that claim?

    Clearly Chairman Pierre Lassonde is doing something right. You might think it's because royalty companies have performed better than producers in this time period, but the other royalty heavyweights-Royal Gold and Silver Wheaton-are down with most other stocks in the sector since gold's 2011 peak.

    Chairman Lassonde was one of the fathers of the royalty business model developed in 1985, so apparently he knew how to position his company to benefit from the financial pain most producers haven't been able to avoid.

    Watching and following an industry's most successful players can pay off very well for investors. So what's Pierre doing today?

    Given the state of the gold market right now, he's making a major call, one of the most consequential in his 40-year career. It's a clear and very timely message for gold investors that you'll be glad you received. He knows what he's talking about. Join him along with Frank Holmes, Rick Rule, Bob Quartermain, Ron Netolitzky, Doug Casey, Louis James, and myself in our free webcast, "Going Vertical". It's a one-hour event that is well worth your time.

    Tags: gold
    Mar 12 10:01 AM | Link | Comment!
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