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Jeff Clark is Editor of BIG GOLD and Explorers’ League at Casey Research (http://www.caseyresearch.com). Having worked on his family’s gold claims in California and Arizona, as well as a mine in a place to remain nameless, these days Jeff Clark focuses on following some of the most successful... More
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  • History Shows A Gold Bull Market Is Fast Approaching

    Yearning for sunnier skies for your gold investments? How's this sound…

    • Gold in a decisive bull market, with the price steadily rising
    • Silver soaring and outpacing gold's gains
    • Gold stocks rocking, erasing underwater positions and racking up the profits

    That's not pie in the sky wishful thinking-it accurately describes the next stage of the gold market, something that will soon visit your portfolio.

    With the price of gold currently stuck in place, like a stain on the front of your best shirt, and the stocks only teasing us like Lucy holding the football for Charlie Brown, how can I be so sure?

    Because that's exactly what happened after every other bear market. For example…

    • 1976. Bear market ends, and gold begins a 701% run in less than four years.
    • 1985. Bear cycle ends, bull cycle begins. Gold gains 71.8% over the next three years.
    • 2001. Monster gold bull cycle delivers a 630% advance over the following 10 years.

    As I pointed out last month, markets cycle. The current range-bound price for precious metals won't last forever, for the simple reason that they never have, especially in the resource market.

    If you set your sights on the big picture, you'll see that in spite of today's negative emotions, gold's future prospects will render them a distant memory.

    Consider some of the likely changes on the horizon and how they will transform the gold market from flat and listless to exciting and profitable…

    • Stock market reversal. The performance of the broader equity markets is probably the biggest reason gold hasn't attracted the mainstream. But stock markets cycle, too, and a correction is due, perhaps overdue-the S&P is up six straight years and nine consecutive quarters. Margin debt is higher now than it was preceding the 2008 crisis, and corporate profits saw the biggest drop in four years last quarter. Gold will be the benefactor in the reversal, especially since it's already corrected.
    • Recession. The probability of a future recession is 100%. The only question is when and how big. GDP last quarter was barely positive. Any unexpected surprises to the downside for the economy will be especially positive for gold.
    • Currency war backfire. This "race to the bottom" being pursued by global central bankers won't work long term. At best, countries steal growth from their trading partners. At worst, it can disintegrate into inflation, recession, retaliation, and even war. Currency wars have happened before-twice in the last century alone-and they've always ended badly. One guess what asset performs well in a crisis.
    • Higher interest rates. We're skeptical that the Fed will actually raise rates, but eventually the market will force rates higher regardless of the Fed. This, in turn, will hurt the real estate market. Meanwhile, those analysts that blindly assume rising rates are negative for gold forget that real rates (nominal interest rate minus inflation) are positive for gold-an almost certain outcome because of…
    • Inflation. The emergence of inflation feels far off, but already there are signs it's picking up. Wages have started to move higher, what is normally the starting point for inflation. Ground beef prices are now at record highs and have more than doubled since 2010-increases like this can't go unaccounted for indefinitely. Remember, we don't have to wait for high inflation for gold to move; it's the onset of inflation, or an unexpected jump in inflation, that will spur gold.
    • US dollar reversal. If you've grown tired of the dollar's "strength," don't leave the theatre early. Its rise is certainly not sustainable long term, and in time will be forgotten. Nothing stays standard deviations above the norm forever. And eventually the dollar will collapse, because the trajectory of our debt isn't mathematically sustainable.
    • Bond market turmoil. As my colleague Dan Steinhart pointed out in The Casey Report, there are currently $3.6 trillion in negative-yield government bonds outstanding today, mostly in Europe and Japan, giving investors zero chance of making money or even breaking even. The sad outcome here is that inflation will massacre the average bond holder.

    My point is that any reasonable big picture view of the political, financial, and economic trends show that virtually all of those changes will be very positive for gold-and aren't that far off.

    It will be a new day for the gold market, one full of rising prices and profitable investment statements.

    But despite all this evidence, there are those in our industry still calling for gold to fall.

    Among the loudest is my colleague Harry Dent.

    He says gold will drop to $700/oz.

    Of course, I think he is dead wrong.

    And I bet Harry bullion from my private stores that gold will never drop to that level.

    He took the bet. And to help you decide who will win (hint: it's me), Harry and I each put all the research we've assembled to form our predictions into a special 18-page report titled Gold: Dead or Alive?

    For anyone who owns an ounce of gold or single share of mining stock, this is a must-read. And it's completely free. Click here to get your copy.

    Tags: gold, bull
    May 19 1:04 PM | Link | Comment!
  • The Next Gold Bull Market Starts Before October

    I'm going out on a limb: I think the next bull phase in the gold market gets underway before October.

    Why?

    China.

    But not due to runaway demand…

    At an International Monetary Fund (NYSE:IMF) forum last month, China's central bank governor, Zhou Xiaochuan, made it clear he believes the renminbi is "ready for reserve status." It would be a huge step for the Chinese currency, starting with the fact that it would be added to the basket of currencies IMF member countries can include in their official reserves. Billions would be invested in it.

    What was the IMF's reaction? "We welcome and share this objective," said IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde. "We are now working closely with the Chinese authorities in this regard," added Director of Communications Gerry Rice.

    They didn't say they would accept it, but then again, they surely wouldn't advertise it in advance.

    What's the connection to gold? If Chinese officials seek "reserve" status for the currency, they'll want to announce their updated gold holdings beforehand.

    Why? Two reasons:

    • Currency strength. Demonstrating they hold ample gold reserves-certainly more than the official number of 1,054 tonnes-puts the currency on more solid footing. The IMF holds the world's third-largest gold reserve, so this issue matters.
    • Transparency. A gold reserve announcement would help quell worries about the country's lack of data transparency, something that's been an ongoing concern.

    Regardless of China's motivation to announce its gold reserves, the IMF might require it anyway, as it's been over six years since the last update.

    The review process for admitting a new currency is held only every five years. I seriously doubt Chinese officials want to wait until 2020. Meetings will be held soon, with the results announced in October.

    What's Behind (Chinese) Door Number Three?

    A recent Bloomberg estimate put China's gold reserves at 3,510 tonnes, more than triple the old amount. If accurate, it would place China second only to the US, which says it has 8,133.5 tonnes. Other analysts speculate China holds around 2,100 tonnes.

    I think the actual number is higher than either estimate. My guess is at least 4,000 tonnes (Jim Rickards thinks it's 4,500 tonnes). If I'm right, and if Chinese officials do announce a new reserve figure before October, it could light a fire under the gold price.

    A large increase is key, because even mainstream investors know that China has been buying a lot of gold. To really jolt the market, the new number must be a surprise-which is exactly what I expect.

    Why? Many analysts overlook that Hong Kong imports are no longer a reliable way to measure China gold demand. China agreed over a year ago to import gold through numerous channels, such as banks, refiners, and even jewelry dealers. For this reason alone, I think China's gold holdings are higher than what they think.

    Of course, I could be wrong about a pending announcement. Buying Chinese government bonds still comes with a lot of restrictions, for example, which could keep the renminbi from being accepted by the IMF and eliminate the pressing need for China to declare its gold reserves. Or maybe the US-with the highest share of votes in the IMF-tries to block it from happening.

    But most of the rest of the world is already on board, as evidenced by the whopping 57 countries that signed on to become founding members of China's Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. Furthermore, nearly two-thirds of the world's central banks currently invest in the renminbi. And over 10,000 financial institutions already transact in it.

    On top of this, China recently agreed to adopt IMF standards for reporting balance of payment data. And they just launched their own facility to fix the yuan's value to gold. You wouldn't take these kinds of steps if you didn't want your currency included in the IMF basket.

    So, I think it's likely China will announce an updated figure on its gold reserves, and that it will be higher than the mainstream expects. If it makes headline news, it could ignite the gold price and give instant birth to a new bull market.

    If I'm right, we obviously want to be positioned before it happens.

    And if I'm wrong? It doesn't really matter, because all the core reasons for owning gold remain intact and poised to turn into catalysts.

    Harry Dent Has Accepted My Bet!

    This is just one reason I bet Harry Dent about where the gold price is headed. He recently proclaimed that gold will fall to $700 in less than two years-and I say hogwash. I bet him a gold Eagle that it won't, and he accepted, so our bet is live.

    We battle it out in a new special report, a 17-page debate where each of us argues our case. You can read our in-depth report free of charge-just enter your email address here, and we'll send it to you right away.

    Which is more likely, inflation or deflation? Is gold destined to fall if deflation wins? Why has gold held strong in spite of a soaring dollar, and how will it perform if we face another crisis? Is a currency crisis really ahead? And how will production costs impact the price?

    Read the eight "proof points" each of us offers, along with the details of our wager and the date the winner will be announced. We both think the report will help each individual investor make up his or her own mind.

    It's the battle of the year, with two ounces of gold on the line. I invite you to follow along in our "boxing match" and see who takes home the gold. Enter your email address and see who wins!

    Tags: gold
    May 14 1:10 PM | Link | 1 Comment
  • Buy Silver Or You Will Die!

    It's the news everyone dreads-a call from the hospital. And it's about one of the most important people in the world…

    Your mother.

    [Every ALL-CAPS ITEM below contains silver or is required in its use.]

    You hear the nurse talking urgently through your TELEPHONE and you realize it's serious…

    You grab your REMOTE CONTROL and turn down the volume on your PLASMA TV that's playing your favorite DVD movie. You push the BUTTON and the SPEAKERS go mute. You press "save" on the KEYBOARD of your COMPUTER.

    "Yes, she's okay," the nurse tells you. "But you need to come to the HOSPITAL right away."

    That's all you need to hear. You yell to your spouse and grab your CELLPHONE to call your siblings.

    "Is she alright?" your wife asks frantically. She was using the VACUUM CLEANER and WASHING MACHINE and didn't hear the conversation.

    "Yes, but hurry," you reply, reaching to turn off the STOVE.

    Your wife springs into action-she pushes the TOYS out of the way, grabs a WATER BOTTLE from the REFRIGERATOR and closes the MICROWAVE door.

    You run to the bedroom and put on that new SUNBLOCK SHIRT she got you and check yourself in the MIRROR. You notice the glint off your SOLAR PANELS shines brightly through the WINDOW. You're sweating and are glad the AIR CONDITIONER and AIR PURIFIER are working.

    Your wife opens the LATCH to the front door. You notice she's wearing those EARRINGS you got her for Christmas, the ones you put in with the CD of her favorite singer.

    You unlock the car with your REMOTE KEY and rev up the ENGINE. Your wife opens the POWER WINDOWS while you adjust the POWER SEATS.

    You leave the RADIO off, and are impatient at the STOPLIGHT, even though you can already see the CELLPHONE TOWERS on top of the hospital. Your wife is talking to your other family members on her CELLPHONE.

    You pull up to the toll booth and the SCANNER beeps you through quickly. Your wife glances at her WATCH, and you remember she needs a new BATTERY.

    You enter the hospital through the AUTOMATIC DOOR and a receptionist uses an IPAD to give you the room number. The indoor temperature is cool and you remember reading about the new INSULATION the hospital used in construction. You quickly push the ELEVATOR BUTTON for the second floor.

    You reach the room and there is your mother, lying on a RECLINING BED, with a BREATHING TUBE in her mouth. She's connected to NUMEROUS HOSPITAL DEVICES, some of which display readouts on a COMPUTER SCREEN. You try not to panic, as you see various SURGICAL INSTRUMENTS lying on a nearby SILVER tray.

    "Your mother is on MEDICATION," says a doctor walking into the room. He has a STETHOSCOPE around his neck and EYEGLASSES perched on his nose.

    "She fell and sustained some injuries, but she will be okay." You see the BANDAGES on her face and arms, and the doctor notices your concern.

    "We'll take some X-RAYS to be sure she didn't break any bones," he says. "And she's already on ANTIBIOTICS, so we'll catch any infection before it starts."

    You take a deep breath of relief as you realize she'll be okay. You grasp your mother's arm and notice she's still wearing her favorite BRACELET.

    The doctor uses a LAPTOP to update her status. The nurse uses a WATER PURIFIER to fill the water pitcher and sets it on the ANTI-SCRATCH surface of the nearby table.

    You settle into a PLASTIC CHAIR beside your mother and take a deep, relaxing breath. It then dawns on you just how much…

    Silver Is Essential to Modern Life

    There are numerous medical examples like this every day, where silver served a cornerstone purpose to treat a hospital patient. In fact, if you've ever been treated by a doctor or admitted to a hospital, you've been a direct recipient of one or more of the medical benefits of silver. From simple bandages to life-saving equipment in operating rooms, silver is quite literally a lifesaving precious metal.

    Silver is used in nearly every major industry today, from biocides and electronics to solar panels and batteries. In fact, silver is so embedded in modern life that you do not go one day without using a product made with or by silver. It's everywhere, even if you don't see it.

    Due to the exponential increase in the number of uses for this precious metal, demand has exploded. Check out silver's growth…

    • Jewelry and silverware use is up 27.2% since 2011.
    • India imported 5,500 tonnes of silver last year, 180% more than just two years ago.
    • Solar power accounted for 29% of added electricity capacity in America last year. "Eventually solar will become so large that there will be consequences everywhere," says the US Solar Energy Industries Association.
    • China's solar industry is exploding-it represented about 0.2% of the global market in 2009, but last year soared to 17%.
    • Silver demand in China exceeded a quarter million ounces last year for the first time in history.
    • New uses for silver continue to be discovered. The latest fashion-a "scough"-uses silver nanoparticles to trap and kill germs and pollutants.
    • Total industrial demand is projected to increase 5% per year through 2016-and outpace global GDP growth.
    • In spite of the fall in price, ETF demand soared in 2014, as total holdings exceeded the 2011 record high.

    Demand is relentless.

    But Here's the Best Part…

    If you're an investor, the price of silver is poised for a massive rebound, after one of the most severe bear markets in history. Silver has declined three consecutive years-and hasn't fallen four straight years since 1991. The price is so undervalued that adjusted for inflation, $17 silver is equivalent to about $4 in the year 2000!

    In fact, silver is currently trading below its price before the financial crisis struck in 2008, and before the first QE program was introduced. It's basically trading as if no money has been printed!

    There is a clear disconnect between this precious metal and its price.

    And that is our opportunity. The silver price has overreacted so dramatically to the downside that it is one of the most compelling investments today. In fact, it's hard to find a more distorted market full of opportunity.

    While hopefully you won't need silver to save your life anytime soon, we're convinced it will be a portfolio-saving investment in the very near future.

    Just like gold, a stash of silver bullion will help us maintain our standard of living. In fact, silver may be more practical to use for small purchases, as there will be times you may not want to sell a full ounce of gold. And in a high-inflation/decaying-dollar scenario, the silver price is likely to exceed consumer price inflation, giving us further purchasing power protection.

    The bottom line is that silver is quite possibly the buying opportunity of this decade. The next few years could be very exciting. And if you like bargains, silver's neon "Sale!" sign is flashing like a disco ball.

    To take advantage of this potentially life-changing setup, we have a special offer in the just-released issue of BIG GOLD

    All investors should own a stash of sovereign bullion coins-Eagles, Maple Leafs, Philharmonics, etc. They're the most recognizable around the world and the most liquid, an important trait when it comes time to sell.

    However, we've identified a potentially lucrative trend in the silver market, where we can buy bullion coins with numismatic potential. In other words, these coins could increase in value much more than standard bullion coins. Even many veteran silver investors have not caught on to this trend.

    How do we know these coins have numismatic upside? Because it's already happened with similar coins. In fact, a similar coin from 2011 is now selling for near a 100% premium. And this occurred while precious metals were in a bear market!

    Right now, you can buy this coin for roughly the same premium as a silver Eagle. In other words, there is essentially no risk to buying these coins-if for some reason they never accrue any numismatic value, they'll still always sell for at least the price of bullion since they contain a full ounce.

    And here's the best part: our recommended dealer has discounted these coins exclusively for BIG GOLD readers. The price is lower than you'll find anywhere else in the bullion market, handing us even further savings. We also include a similar discount on a gold coin with numismatic potential.

    There's much more to our May issue… We detail why we think the next bull market in gold could kick into high gear very soon (it's in Jeff Clark's introduction). It's a development most mainstream investors are completely overlooking-which is our opportunity, because they'll be surprised by this event and rush into the precious metals market literally overnight. If we're right, it could light a fire under the gold price.

    But you need to invest now, before it takes place, and while the discounted premium on these coins is still available. Either way, don't let the current bear market fool you-it's stretched to an extreme and will shift into a new bull market soon. Markets cycle, as history has repeatedly shown, and this market is due for its next upcycle.

    Test-drive BIG GOLD at no risk, with a 3-month, money-back guarantee. It comes with the discount on the two bullion products that have numismatic potential, plus all our current stock recommendations, including tables that show the prices they'd hit if they matched past bull markets. The potential gains are enormous-and a tremendous opportunity if you don't own precious metals stocks.

    If you don't like it, cancel. But we think you'll find tremendous value for the low price. Get started now.

    Tags: silver
    May 11 11:43 AM | Link | Comment!
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