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Jeff Diercks

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  • This Simple Trend-Following Model Has Crushed Buy And Hold [View article]
    Great post! Trend following really does work well if you understand that for equities it works best in secular bear markets.

    Also if you combine multiple indexes and signals you can reduce volatility and the occasional desire to drift from the system due to periods of under performance. Unfortunately, the under performance usually comes when "buy and hold" is doing well, which makes it tough to hold onto this strategy. However, if you stick with it, the big payoffs comes during the larger than normal cyclical bear periods during the longer-term secular bear cycle. I think 2013 - 2014 could be the payoff years again.
    Oct 15 07:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My ETF Is Shutting Down - Now What? [View article]
    I guess the ETF space must be like every other...there is innovation, growth, bloating and then consolidation and right sizing!
    Aug 10 02:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Currency ETFs Caught In Eurozone Concerns [View article]
    Isn't amazing how the dollar and short Euro trades came to a halt last week as Mario Draghi reassured the markets the Euro will remain intact? I don't know how we can trust anything constructive to come out of Europe, but it appears the markets are reading into this a coordinated easing effort by global central banks.

    Despite whatever these Central Bankers do or don't do, it won't last long and before we see renewed dollar and short Euro appreciation. Next week will be very telling!
    Jul 29 05:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Zero Sum Game Of Lower Interest Rates And Why Mortgage Rates Will Rise [View article]
    A global recession could keep rates down for at least the next 12-18 months. Obviously, it is a good bet rates don't go dramatically lower, however it's possible they stay low for some time before exploding higher as the real end game begins globally to inflate away excess debt on the backs of the middle class.
    Jul 29 05:14 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Correction Within The Correction [View article]
    What is your plan now that the Euro didn't hold $1.27?
    May 22 03:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FXE Is Oversold: Trade The Bounce [View article]
    If FXE can move up from today's new multi-month low, it looks like 129.50 to 130 will be retested.
    May 22 03:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Treasury ETF Rally Threatens Stocks [View article]
    Good piece Tom! The breakout in long-term treasuries is even more evident on the weekly chart where we have price moved above the upper Bollinger Band last week. We also have a moving average crossover. It does appear that we may see some pullback here for the balance of the week and maybe next as you pointed out.
    May 22 03:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Friday’s Rally Makes No Sense at All [View article]
    Seems a little funny to me that the market wants to move higher on declining momentum and volume ahead of the November elections. We have quickly moved up 7-8% on no volume and a series of opening market gaps in September.

    Dare I say this price action seems fishy to me.

    Could it be the best way to placate a restless populous is for the markets to make the average man feel richer between now and an important mid-term election? Gee! I wonder who would benefit by such a move and might be behind such market moves?
    Sep 24 01:41 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More Evidence That This Rally Is Toast [View article]
    Nice job. I think the only other key market that you failed to really look at was the currency markets. The dollar's reversal yesterday definitely confirms that markets are anticipating further weakness ahead.

    It wouldn't surprise me at all if the European sovereign debt markets became an issue again over the next few weeks or possibly an ensuing attach on Iran by either the U.S. or Israel. It is always amazing to me how the markets anticipate news that really is not privy to the general public yet.
    Aug 12 11:39 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weekly Market Forecast [View article]
    Nice job Graham summarizing where we are at the moment!

    What makes you think the Fed and the Central Banks around the world won't be able to forestall a crisis in September by lowering rates, printing more of their currencies or via quantitative easing?

    Obviously, this tab becomes due at some point, but so far they have done a masterful job pushing this point way into the future. It's also been a disaster to fight the Fed so far.
    Jul 26 08:19 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nasdaq Volatility Index Could Be Signaling Trouble Ahead [View instapost]
    By the way, check out a video update on the market and this VXN consolidation pattern at:
    Jul 15 09:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • G10 Currencies Signal the Coming Bear Market [View article]
    Thanks guys for weighing in. This graph is not the "holy grail." It is just another data input to think about. As Matt pointed out above it is a bit of a "risk on" / "risk off" and can be affected by the dollar movements to extreme relative to U.S. equities.

    In my mind, today and possibly tomorrow's price action in stocks should really tell us whether we maintain a downward bias for equities or miraculously recover again.
    Jul 14 09:53 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Few Questions for Trend-Following ETF Investors [View article]
    Trend followers like us use a myriad of models for different asset classes and markets. We also use different models over differing time periods.

    Some of our short-term models went bearish and we moved out of that exposure, while some of our longer-term models continue to flash a bullish sign. The end result has been that we have taken our net exposure down and are looking for a retest of last week's lows to initiate possible added exposure.

    None of our models use this simplistic 200 day moving average as a signal.
    May 14 10:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude Oil Ready to Break Lower [View article]
    Nice analysis. However, I believe the dollar is really driving this equation with crude oil. The dollar's rise again speaks to a possible late March and April correction in equities and commodities in my mind.

    Also emerging countries have been weak relative to U.S. equities as many of these countries (China and India) are putting the breaks on run away growth. This has got to affect oil demand.
    Mar 22 05:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ticking Time Bombs in Budgets Everywhere [View article]
    Richard, I agree with you on defaulting on debt. This could be inflationary as funding costs for government securities would rise dramatically, which is inflationary.

    However, raising taxes would reduce consumer demand (deflationary). With the government the primary employer and consumer at present, if they cut budgets, salaries and projects, this will reduce demand and possibly raise the ranks of the unemployed. This is also deflationary. So there is a chance some government actions could continue certain deflationary trends already in the marketplace.
    Mar 16 08:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment