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Jeff Diercks  

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  • Could The CBOE SKEW Index Be Projecting A Major Change Of Trend? [View instapost]
    All great comments infrontofyourback! Trend following works when their is an orderly turn in a stock or market.

    If this market has been so managed that it works till it doesn't and then it drops quickly and like a rock, there are very few managers who will do well in that scenario.

    If that happens and you are lucky enough to go to cash beforehand, better not have your money in a bank because they will take a portion of it on a "bail in."

    It is certainly a tenuous environment!

    However, that said, markets tend to anticipate major market moves. There are always some who are tipped off or in the know who start to sell (or buy) before major events and those signs are evident to those who watch. Even if this managed market starts to roll, instead of climbing on good or bad news, I doubt it happens overnight and there will be evidence in other markets that it is going to happen.

    Thanks for your comments. Greg is right on in his commentary and I love to watch his videos as well. The thing he lacks and anyone lacks is the timing of this thing coming apart!
    Jul 23, 2014. 08:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Could The CBOE SKEW Index Be Projecting A Major Change Of Trend? [View instapost]
    Hi Greg, I watch your videos all the time. I love them!

    I wish I had enough time to do a daily video, but the nature of my business is just too time intensive.

    Keep up the good work!
    Jul 22, 2014. 08:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Time To Own Gold? [View instapost]
    Anyoption, thank you for your comment. You are certainly right that global tensions are impacting gold prices. However, even before these tensions started rising gold started to consolidate in anticipation of something....something big I believe! It now appears that gold will eventually break to the upside and that could be bad for global stock markets.
    Jul 22, 2014. 08:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Simple Trend-Following Model Has Crushed Buy And Hold [View article]
    Great post! Trend following really does work well if you understand that for equities it works best in secular bear markets.

    Also if you combine multiple indexes and signals you can reduce volatility and the occasional desire to drift from the system due to periods of under performance. Unfortunately, the under performance usually comes when "buy and hold" is doing well, which makes it tough to hold onto this strategy. However, if you stick with it, the big payoffs comes during the larger than normal cyclical bear periods during the longer-term secular bear cycle. I think 2013 - 2014 could be the payoff years again.
    Oct 15, 2012. 07:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My ETF Is Shutting Down - Now What? [View article]
    I guess the ETF space must be like every other...there is innovation, growth, bloating and then consolidation and right sizing!
    Aug 10, 2012. 02:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Currency ETFs Caught In Eurozone Concerns [View article]
    Isn't amazing how the dollar and short Euro trades came to a halt last week as Mario Draghi reassured the markets the Euro will remain intact? I don't know how we can trust anything constructive to come out of Europe, but it appears the markets are reading into this a coordinated easing effort by global central banks.

    Despite whatever these Central Bankers do or don't do, it won't last long and before we see renewed dollar and short Euro appreciation. Next week will be very telling!
    Jul 29, 2012. 05:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Zero Sum Game Of Lower Interest Rates And Why Mortgage Rates Will Rise [View article]
    A global recession could keep rates down for at least the next 12-18 months. Obviously, it is a good bet rates don't go dramatically lower, however it's possible they stay low for some time before exploding higher as the real end game begins globally to inflate away excess debt on the backs of the middle class.
    Jul 29, 2012. 05:14 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Correction Within The Correction [View article]
    What is your plan now that the Euro didn't hold $1.27?
    May 22, 2012. 03:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FXE Is Oversold: Trade The Bounce [View article]
    If FXE can move up from today's new multi-month low, it looks like 129.50 to 130 will be retested.
    May 22, 2012. 03:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Treasury ETF Rally Threatens Stocks [View article]
    Good piece Tom! The breakout in long-term treasuries is even more evident on the weekly chart where we have price moved above the upper Bollinger Band last week. We also have a moving average crossover. It does appear that we may see some pullback here for the balance of the week and maybe next as you pointed out.
    May 22, 2012. 03:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Friday’s Rally Makes No Sense at All [View article]
    Seems a little funny to me that the market wants to move higher on declining momentum and volume ahead of the November elections. We have quickly moved up 7-8% on no volume and a series of opening market gaps in September.

    Dare I say this price action seems fishy to me.

    Could it be the best way to placate a restless populous is for the markets to make the average man feel richer between now and an important mid-term election? Gee! I wonder who would benefit by such a move and might be behind such market moves?
    Sep 24, 2010. 01:41 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More Evidence That This Rally Is Toast [View article]
    Nice job. I think the only other key market that you failed to really look at was the currency markets. The dollar's reversal yesterday definitely confirms that markets are anticipating further weakness ahead.

    It wouldn't surprise me at all if the European sovereign debt markets became an issue again over the next few weeks or possibly an ensuing attach on Iran by either the U.S. or Israel. It is always amazing to me how the markets anticipate news that really is not privy to the general public yet.
    Aug 12, 2010. 11:39 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weekly Market Forecast [View article]
    Nice job Graham summarizing where we are at the moment!

    What makes you think the Fed and the Central Banks around the world won't be able to forestall a crisis in September by lowering rates, printing more of their currencies or via quantitative easing?

    Obviously, this tab becomes due at some point, but so far they have done a masterful job pushing this point way into the future. It's also been a disaster to fight the Fed so far.
    Jul 26, 2010. 08:19 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nasdaq Volatility Index Could Be Signaling Trouble Ahead [View instapost]
    By the way, check out a video update on the market and this VXN consolidation pattern at:
    Jul 15, 2010. 09:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • G10 Currencies Signal the Coming Bear Market [View article]
    Thanks guys for weighing in. This graph is not the "holy grail." It is just another data input to think about. As Matt pointed out above it is a bit of a "risk on" / "risk off" and can be affected by the dollar movements to extreme relative to U.S. equities.

    In my mind, today and possibly tomorrow's price action in stocks should really tell us whether we maintain a downward bias for equities or miraculously recover again.
    Jul 14, 2010. 09:53 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment