Chart of the Week: Russell 2000 vs. the Dow [View article]
The prior comment is right on. Except to fight the trend is still "suicide." If the HFTs want to drive small caps....go along for the ride. Just make sure your prudent risk management is in place.
This lesson, I have learned the hard way. I haven't liked a thing about this market since the March 2009 lows. However, the trend is still up despite the building evidence of market manipulation and government induced speculation.
Chart of the Day: VIX Price Channel [View article]
Bill,
Corrections are normal and so far each one since March has led to higher prices. The real question is which one of these corrections will turn into the next leg down in this secular bear market.
It looks to me like the VIX may need to hit the 15.80-16.80 range before we hit the ultimate bottom and reverse in a larger move down in the markets.
Good analysis John. Althought it has got to be painful to sit through the bounce being short. I think you will get a signal today that you were indeed right to hold the shorts.
Start Looking at the Short Side of Things [View article]
Technically, the 60 minute market charts show we are in a rising wedge pattern that is unsustainable. We may break this pattern today and it may set the stage for the beginnings of what has been outlined above.
Many daily charts also had reversal candles on Friday that may be confirmed today. If confirmed this would represent a classic lower high for these charts.
Is the S&P 500 Finding Support at the 1,091 Level? [View article]
This bull won't die that easily. Look for one more weak push higher as a exit and to relieve the short-term oversold condition. I agree with Mad Hedge Fund Trader, from here sell the rallies.
Morgan Stanley: The Dollar Could Soar 10% [View article]
This is just a technical bounce in a long-term downtrend. Purely a tradeable moment.
By the way, Bill40, I like your story. The problem is every country prints money. It's just we have a trade imbalance and trillions in debt that makes our ability to "make good" on that IOU less than a sure thing.
Technical Analysis: Is This the New Normal? [View article]
I think all this shows is that it is due to pull back to the trend line and got ahead of itself and its pattern. If you traded on this pattern alone, you would have your head handed to you.
Examining World Financial Markets in 8 Charts [View article]
Your point that "we listen to what the market is telling us that it wants to do" is the best part of this analysis.
Essentially, its easy to get all worked up with predictions by Jim Rogers or Dr. Doom, but nothing has changed yet. The trends are still up at this point. It would be silly to fight the trend.
U.S. Households Continue Deleveraging at Record Pace [View article]
This chart says debt growth. I assume it's year-to-year and not cumulative?
If it's just year over year growth, this is to be expected with tight credit markets and an overleveraged consumer. It has been tough to get credit even with a clean balance sheet over the past twelve months unless you qualified for government backed financing of some kind.
5 Reasons Why the Market Is About to Change Direction [View article]
The trend is your friend until it stops being your friend. Trying to predict the end is a suckers game. Wait for the evidence, you will have more time than you think to move out of the way if Chris is indeed right.
GDX and GDXJ both displayed a candlestick doji reversal signal on Tuesday and confirmed the reversal yesterday. At least in the short-term both appear headed higher.
The dollar ($USD) also looks like it needs to take a corrective break. However, its weekly trend is solidly up and it longer-term trend may run for some months to come.
It will be interesting to see what happens to both the miners and the dollar beyond the next week to ten days.
I think Bert is right on with his analysis. Tops can take a very long time to full mature and there can be interruptions that prolong the process. Right now liquidity is king and as long as the Fed keeps pumping it into the system and other emerging nations are willing to take some of our paper (and that of other developed nations), this market will head up with mild corrections.
The real shocker is how little of our paper they are currently buying which could portend an end to this rally is coming sooner rather than later as confidence continues to erode in our fiat currency.
XLP Short Interest: Surprising Level of Bearishness [View article]
Great information! As a person that is growing more negative on the market action by the day, this high short interest does make me pause to consider my position. Too much negativism is certain fuel for an explosive up move, just the kind of head scratcher this market has continued to provide since March.
Chart of the Week: Russell 2000 vs. the Dow [View article]
This lesson, I have learned the hard way. I haven't liked a thing about this market since the March 2009 lows. However, the trend is still up despite the building evidence of market manipulation and government induced speculation.
Chart of the Day: VIX Price Channel [View article]
Corrections are normal and so far each one since March has led to higher prices. The real question is which one of these corrections will turn into the next leg down in this secular bear market.
It looks to me like the VIX may need to hit the 15.80-16.80 range before we hit the ultimate bottom and reverse in a larger move down in the markets.
A New Uptrend Underway? [View article]
Start Looking at the Short Side of Things [View article]
Many daily charts also had reversal candles on Friday that may be confirmed today. If confirmed this would represent a classic lower high for these charts.
Is the S&P 500 Finding Support at the 1,091 Level? [View article]
S&P 500: Investing by Day of the Month [View article]
Morgan Stanley: The Dollar Could Soar 10% [View article]
By the way, Bill40, I like your story. The problem is every country prints money. It's just we have a trade imbalance and trillions in debt that makes our ability to "make good" on that IOU less than a sure thing.
Technical Analysis: Is This the New Normal? [View article]
Examining World Financial Markets in 8 Charts [View article]
Essentially, its easy to get all worked up with predictions by Jim Rogers or Dr. Doom, but nothing has changed yet. The trends are still up at this point. It would be silly to fight the trend.
U.S. Households Continue Deleveraging at Record Pace [View article]
If it's just year over year growth, this is to be expected with tight credit markets and an overleveraged consumer. It has been tough to get credit even with a clean balance sheet over the past twelve months unless you qualified for government backed financing of some kind.
5 Reasons Why the Market Is About to Change Direction [View article]
Time to Start Buying Mining ETFs? [View article]
The dollar ($USD) also looks like it needs to take a corrective break. However, its weekly trend is solidly up and it longer-term trend may run for some months to come.
It will be interesting to see what happens to both the miners and the dollar beyond the next week to ten days.
Weekly Market Recap: Back in Bubble Mode [View article]
New Mini-Bubbles in the Making [View article]
The real shocker is how little of our paper they are currently buying which could portend an end to this rally is coming sooner rather than later as confidence continues to erode in our fiat currency.
XLP Short Interest: Surprising Level of Bearishness [View article]