Seeking Alpha

Jeff Diercks'  Instablog

Jeff Diercks
Send Message
Jeff Diercks, is an investapreneur and recovering CPA. He actively trades his own money and manages the assets of a select group of clients at InTrust Advisors, a Tampa, Florida based wealth management firm focused on trend following and price momentum strategies utilizing ETF securities. Mr.... More
My company:
InTrust Advisors
My blog:
InTrust Advisors
My book:
View Jeff Diercks' Instablogs on:
  • The Best Of II....The Sequel

    If Hollywood can have sequels, why can't I? We have a lot of good posts that many of you have probably never seen. It is the season of giving after all!

    So here is a gift for you:

    How to Determine The Trend in a Stock or Index - Here is a simple video on how to determine the trend on any stock or index.

    Learning to Sit On Your Hands - This post is for those with that terrible feeling in the pit of their stomachs that they should do the market moves against their trend following position(s). So while you are still waiting for your signal or the resumption of the trend, here are some points to ponder.

    Trend Following is Still and Art, Not a Science - Trend following (and investing) is as much an art as it is science. In this post we cover a few of the common situations where wonder (the intersection of art and science) come into play in your decision making and provide some guidance to help with the art side of trend following signals.

    Why Trend Following Beats Long / Short Hedge Funds - In this post, we explore the primary reason trend followers are the way to go when compared to equity long/short hedge fund managers.

    Commodities, the Great Diversifier! - Are commodities are good idea in your portfolio? Find out how they affect performance, portfolio volatility and how best to trade them!

    Two Ways Managers Ride the Trend - Today we are going to give you some the secret sauce! Did you know that there are two basic types of trend followers? Find out how they differ!

    Trend Following: Is It Cheap Insurance? - Is it possible that adding trend following to your portfolio could be the cheapest insurance you can buy against the next bear market? Find out why time may be running out to buy this cheap insurance before the bear grips your portfolio.

    How to Manage Your Portfolio Like a Hedge Fund Manager - Did you every wonder what makes hedge fund managers so special? In this post, we will give you the scoop on what they do that is so special and how you can use Stock-Signal to duplicate their results without any using any leverage.

    If You Don't Take The Signal, You Will Hate Yourself Later! - Isn't it funny that one of the greatest home run hitters of all time (Babe Ruth) is only remembered for the times he stroked that ball over the left or right field wall, not the times he flied, grounded or struck out? Find out why investing and more specifically trend following is like baseball.

    Ten Commandments Worth Following For Big Gains - In this post, we take a look at Andrew Abraham's 10 Commandments of trend following from his upcoming book The Bible of Trend Following.

    Enjoy your gift and have a happy holidays!

    By the way, it's not too late to get for your friend, family member or neighbor. At just $9.95 per month, our buy and sell signals are extremely affordable!

    Dec 23 2:33 PM | Link | Comment!
  • The Best Of

    As we approach the holidays and year end, I thought it might be beneficial that I recap some of our best blog posts of the past. Here they are since they are sometimes hard to find on our site once we get past the most recent posts:

    Five Ways to Profit with - five ways to make the most of this site, while protecting your capital and enhancing long-term results.

    The Bull is Now 55 Months Old - Of course now the bull is 56 months old, but the theme of this post is still valid.

    Get Rid of Your Investment Worries Once and For All! - Wouldn't we all want a little less worry? This video lays out our thesis for how this is possible even in today's complex world.

    What is Your Popular Online Broker Not Sharing With You - Picking the right broker is almost as important as the trade itself. See what you should be looking for in a new broker.

    The ABCs of Beta Exposure - What is beta and how can it be used in better managing portfolio risk?

    How Exposed Are You? A Brief Lesson in Exposure! - Exposure in investing is not the same as what Lindsey Lohan or Kim Kardashian seek. In this post, we tell you what it is and how to measure it.

    Don't Cede Control Instead Think Outside the Box! - Investors are less inclined to give up control over their investment assets today than anytime in history. This is of course ok as long as you have a plan. We give you some ideas for that plan here.

    Answers to the Four Biggest Questions in Investing! - Some basic tenants of investing to help you understand whether stocks are cheap or expense, the economy is doing well or not, stock valuations are at dangerous levels or cheap, and do simple trend following strategies beat the stock market and more.

    Evaluating Who You Are! - Being a good trader or investor starts with knowing thyself. Find out why!

    Be Objective, Subjective Analysis is for Losers! - What does it mean to be objective and how can it help you with investing? We answer this age old question here.

    Join us in our next post as we recap more of the Best of between now and the new year.

    Dec 16 9:17 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Performance For November 2013

    November continued the recent equity market trend of higher markets as the Federal Reserve's continued Quantitative Easing (QE) program continued to flood the markets with liquidity that had no place to go but into equities.

    (click to enlarge)

    I have stated for months that this is a bubble that will end badly, but as a trend follower you have to go with the trend, which at this time is up. How do I know it's a bubble, easy healthy markets correct from time to time. Unhealthy markets just shoot to the moon with little economic rational or earnings to back them up.

    Welcome to the bubble!

    Of course I am not alone in my feelings. Just this morning Nobel Prize winner (Robert Shuler) warned of a U.S. stock market bubble. He nailed the last housing bubble, so I tend to listen when his research flashes trouble ahead.

    So what is a good trend follower to do? I already answered this one, ride the bubble for all its worth and follow the signals closely when they do flash sell. Performance did very well in November. We were long the major market indexes the entire month and captured 100% of the upward move. We also profited nicely in the move down in gold prices, but stumbled a bit in our long position in commodities and our short of the U.S. dollar.

    Here are the results for the month and trailing three month, year-to-date and prior year periods.

    (click to enlarge)

    (click to enlarge)

    Market Forecast

    Just in case you are wondering why we are trailing the S&P 500, please realize the above sample portfolio returns are diversified. Diversification smooths returns but can reduce relative returns during certain periods where one index, in this case the benchmark S&P 500, is outperforming most indexes.

    Also realize that the Central Bank's meddling in the markets has created havoc with our trend following models over the past several years. The have intervened time and again just when appears trends have changed and we have recommitted capital. This quick reversal of fortunes has been hard on our trend following models since they tend to react slower than the underlying benchmark indexes to changes in direction. This then has costs us returns.

    Luckily Central Banks are running out of bullets and options which should benefit our strategies with smoother index movements. Our models tend to do extremely well in Bear markets so this will also help us over the longer term.

    In the short-term, however, we expect global stock markets to continue to trend higher with shallow periods of consolidation. This trend could continue all the way through May of 2014 when seasonality trends turn more negative.

    In our recent post entitled, The Bull is Now 55 Months Old!, we made the case that this bull phase is getting old. Now another month older and closer to the average Bear Market length of 67 months, we believe we could see the next Bear Market start sometime in the third quarter of 2014.

    Make sure you are ready! A 30 day trial of is free.

    Dec 02 10:28 AM | Link | Comment!
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers


More »

Latest Comments

Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.