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Jeff Diercks
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Jeff Diercks, is an investapreneur and recovering CPA. He actively trades his own money and manages the assets of a select group of clients at InTrust Advisors, a Tampa, Florida based wealth management firm focused on trend following and price momentum strategies utilizing ETF securities. Mr.... More
My company:
InTrust Advisors
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InTrust Advisors
My book:
www.Stock-Signal.com
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  • Wouldn't You Like To Know When To Get Out?

    I know that this question is asked almost daily by market participants "when do I get out?"

    Let's face it, no one wants to be that poor schlub that rides the market down again!

    How many of you did that in the last bear market?

    What a terrible feeling that must have been to get your brokerage statements and not have the courage to open them to see how your portfolio had done.

    Luckily, the Federal Reserve had your backs and due to a little thing called "money printing", they levitated markets to new highs.

    But will they be there in the next financial crisis? Even if the answer is "yes," do you really want to hang around to find out?

    Today, I want to tell you one of the simplest way you can use Stock-Signal.com. This one idea will pay for the subscription many times over in just one market cycle. It doesn't even need to include a financial crisis for you to win!

    So what is that one simple idea?

    Well you know we deliver buy and sell signals on seven stock indexes for a low subscription price. However, let's be honest, some of you won't know what to do with that information, especially on seven indexes. You might also have a certain affinity for the way your invested today or a certain ETF or fund you own already.

    Your issue is still "when do I get out?."

    What if I told you that the signals on one index could change your life? Yes, that is right.

    The "no brainer" way to use our signals is to follow one signal on one index to answer that age old question.

    Which index? The S&P 500 signals.

    They are the most consistent, most reliable signals we deliver. They will literally save you big money in the next bear market.

    Check out this graph of signals on the S&P 500 since 2007.

    (click to enlarge)

    What do you see? Our sell and buy signals would have saved you a bundle in the financial crisis.

    You can also see there are not a ton of signals. Are all as profitable as 2007 - 2008? No, but they did all make you money!

    Here is a list of the signals since 1987.

    Again, there are not that many buy or sell signals over 27+ years and anyone can use these S&P 500 signals to enhance their long-term returns as you can see from the performance of this index on the Stock-Signal.com web site.

    Here is just a few of the ways you could use these signals:

    1. To move to cash and back to fully invested in your 401k plan at work;
    2. To move to cash in your buy and hold portfolio;
    3. Utilize the sell as a signal to hedge your long only portfolio;
    4. As a trading signal to start to trade in the direction of the new trend, whether up or down;
    5. To get more conservative in fully invested pools;

    And so on and so on…..

    So why be a victim this next bear market. Give Stock-Signal.com a free 30 day trial and take control over your future!

    Feb 13 3:31 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Stock-Signal Performance For January 2014

    January was a tough month for the markets. We really have had it so good lately that we were due for a correction and like most corrections, it tended to fool the most people.

    If you were to look at 2014 forecasts, many were looking for a repeat of 2013 or at least double digit increases in the markets.

    So Mr. Market said "I'll show them" and he begins a January correction that took the S&P 500 down more than (3.5%). the Dow Jones Industrial Average down more than (5.3%) and the Nasdaq down more than (1.7%).

    If this were not bad enough, Mr. Market also chose to take down the market in first month of the new year. It turns out that January has a pretty good record of setting the trend for the balance of the year. See our post "Down January, Tough Year!"

    A negative January has a pretty good track record of equaling at least a flat year, if not a decline.

    So now Mr. Market had us on our heals. He again asserted himself to start the month of February. The first trading day of a month is traditionally bullish due to pension plan inflows, but Mr. Market had another surprise sell off on poor U.S. manufacturing numbers. This sell off pushed the S&P 500 below support at 1770 and sellers emerged.

    So the question then becomes "should you sell and take cover?" The simple answer is no, not yet anyways!

    Stock-Signal.com Performance

    Many of you must be thinking with the markets down that must mean trend followers returns were up….right? No, not exactly.

    You see trend followers hold a current trend until it reverses. This means that many times at a top, we will give back some profits before our models sniff out that a top has indeed been put in. Not that I am saying this is a top!

    So when markets correct or top, we generally take losses in the early stage of that move. As the move progresses, some of our models start to turn bearish and we move to inverse/short positions, like we did Friday in the EAFE Index. This next stage helps to hedge the remaining long positions.

    If the move continues further, eventually our models will tell us to be completely out of our long positions and in inverse /short positions. I don't know if this current corrective move will go that far or not, but anything is possible in this market.

    Eventually markets do bounce and we reverse the above process.

    Now that is a long winded way of saying we did better than the overall markets in our hypothetical sample portfolios, but still lost money as you can see below.

    The only model that managed to make money was the high yield index signals. Everything else lost money in the month.

    Our worst performer was our position in the EAFE index, which lost (5.20%). As I mentioned earlier, we finally got a sell signal on this index on the last trading day of January.

    Despite the carnage, we still managed to outperform the S&P 500 and NewEdge CTA Trend Following Sub-Index.

    Market Forecast - next few months

    Despite the terrible feeling in the pit of your stomach that comes from giving back portfolio profits, so far this market pullback looks to be just a corrective action.

    We forecast that its possible the S&P 500 will correct all the way back to 1700, the Nasdaq to 3,800 and the EAFE index to 1,800. If we hit these target levels, we would have had a 6-8% correction. I believe we may even go further down, say 10%, on an intraday basis.

    Thereafter, the markets will likely solidify and rally.

    Now is when you really have to pay attention!

    Does the market move right back to new highs, if so, this current bull market continues?

    Does the market fail to move to new highs and start to rollover, if so, its time to get out. We likely have a new Bear Market on our hands.

    So it is much too early to tell what this market will do in 2014. Just stay tuned!

    Feb 03 2:14 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Down January, Tough Year!

    It appears, baring a last minute and mighty rally, that we will finish the month of January in the red. History tells us that "as January goes, so goes the rest of the year." Which isn't giving me any warm and fuzzy feelings….I don't know about you?

    According to the Trader's Almanac, the January Barometer has a 88.9% accuracy ratio since 1950. This indicator has had only seven errors over that time including the impact of the Vietnam war in 1966 and 1968.

    CNBC.com tells us that "The January barometer has been right in 62 of the last 85 years, or 73 percent of the time. Since 1929, the index followed January's direction 80 percent of the time when it finished positive, and 60 percent of the time, when it finished negative."

    More recently, in the past 35 years, the S&P 500 followed January's direction 25 times, or 71 percent of the time (83 percent of the time for the Dow, and 74 percent of the time for the Nasdaq, again according to CNBC.com.

    So we know several things from this: 1) this indicator is pretty accurate and investing is a game of odds, so it would be wise to heed this barometer; 2) we also know that every down January on the S&P 500 since 1950, without exception, proceeded a new or extended bear market, a flat market or a 10% correction.

    So the bottom line is this is serious. We are starting to get trend following sell signals on many indexes with more likely today as we near the close of trading. The only question we have to settle is is this the start of something bigger, something volatile and flat or just a 10% correction? So far, my vote is just the latter.

    Jan 31 10:23 AM | Link | Comment!
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