Jeff Farley

Swine Flu: Why You Can Ignore the Hype

I will admit I under estimated the swine flu in 6 weeks if it is still a huge enough issue to be the lead story on every newscast and newspaper like it was today...and those of you who are believing the media hype now will admit your were wrong if it has totally blown over.

Swine Flu: Why You Can Ignore the Hype

I am just VERY optimistic the media is blowing the swine flu situation WAY out of proportion and the clowns on seeking alpha blasting me for my article I wrote here Sunday night are not considering the extremely low probability of a major pandemic that everyone fears....they give way too much credence to the extremely LOW probability it gets out of control. I am in the probability business....and the way I see it is the probability is 99% it blows over no big deal and 1% chance it's terrible.
No we have O asking Congress for $1.5 billion for swine flu...I still think it will be a dead story in a few weeks. I am sure more than 60 kids were diagnosed with autism in last 4 days...why not put $1.5 bill towards that?



On Apr 28 02:13 PM ron_paulite wrote:

> Hi Jeff
>
> You still don't get it.
> Whether you are right or wrong about the Swine flu going away in
> 6 weeks isn't important. You could well be right.
>
> The issue here is your reasons for saying that this Swine flu will
> away soon. Comparing the number of deaths in Mexico all happening
> near the same place and same time with the 36,000 deaths from flu
> complications in US happening randomly across the country all year
> round. And ignoring the fact that "Most of the those who died from
> Swine flu were between 20 and 50 years of age, an ominous sign because
> a hallmark of past pandemics has been the high rate of fatalities
> among healthy young adults" - whereas the 36,000 Americans who die
> every year from flu complications are probably the elderly, weak
> or children. And the fact that the Swine flu is showing up in countries
> all over the world now - something which does not happen with your
> normal run-out-of-the-mill flu. Yes, we can take comfort in the fact
> the most of the infections outside Mexico are mild and there are
> not fatalities outside Mexico yet. But that doesn't negate the fact
> that this isn't your normal flu.
>
> What is in question here is your creditability.

While Cree Is Great in LED, Veeco May Be a Better Stock

VECO PEG is very good...growing 45% and PE is only 20.

AIXG another good LED play.

CREE is the leader for sure...inst will be looking for other better value plays in the LED space imho...VECO revs and eps are ramping big...see their latest earnings report.

Why STEC's Pullback Is Buyable

The STEC party is over for sure after a poor outlook for Q4. Clearly many KNEW this was coming.

Universal Display: A Stock with Big Potential

I have moved on from PANL.

Universal Display: A Stock with Big Potential

Thanks for the links Ron


On Apr 22 03:32 AM Ron Mertens wrote:

> Here's an interview we just published with UDC:
>
> www.oled-info.com/univ...
>
>
> Ron