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Jeff Miller

 
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  • Weighing The Week Ahead: A Focus On Europe?
    Editors' Pick • Sun, Jan. 25 DIA, SPY, QQQ 34 Comments

    Summary

    • Last week's data were mixed, with too much "explanation" leaning on the ECB decision.
    • The week ahead includes news about the Greek snap elections, more ECB analysis, and continuing earnings.
    • The FOMC announcement may not add much information.
    • Looking beyond the immediate time frame, there are some good stock ideas.
    • It is time to plan ahead, with shopping list in hand.
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: The Message From Fourth Quarter Earnings
    Editors' Pick • Sun, Jan. 18 DIA, SPY, QQQ 42 Comments

    Summary

    • Last week's trading focused on the message from bonds and commodities.
    • Will corporate earnings reports support the sense of a weakening economy?
    • Actual economic data are more positive than markets suggest.
    • Implications for traders and investors may, once again, be quite different.
    • Earnings expectations include a parlay of tests.
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Is The Bond Market Sending A Message?
    Editors' Pick • Sun, Jan. 11 DIA, SPY, QQQ 58 Comments

    Summary

    • Last week featured plenty of January Silliness.
    • With a week to go before earnings, focus may be on the message from bonds.
    • The calendar leads many to review plans and portfolios - I have suggested methods, sources, stocks and sectors.
    • Not least of which - you do not need to be a genius to take what the market is giving.
  • Jeff Miller Positions For 2015: Still Plenty Of Life In The 'Aging Bull'
    Editors' Pick • Fri, Jan. 9 ESV, VLO, MPC 71 Comments

    Summary

    • The main economic theme is that there is no expiration date on the business cycle.
    • None of the best recession forecasting methods are flashing a warning for 2015.
    • Markets hate uncertainty, but that is the story on the interest rate effect.
    • Investors would do well to ignore the popular press and do some independent thinking.
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For The 'January Effect'?
    Editors' Pick • Sun, Jan. 4 SPY, QQQ, DIA 92 Comments

    Summary

    • Returning pundits will focus on seasonal factors next week.
    • At least until employment Friday!
    • Economic news has been mildly negative.
    • Plenty of investment themes for those wanting to reposition holdings.
    • Beware excessive focus on the recent past.
  • 2014 In Review: Hot Or Not?
    Dec. 31, 2014 SPY, DIA, QQQ 9 Comments

    Summary

    • 2014 in Review: Hot or Not?
    • "Hot" items offer an opportunity to follow big trends in 2015.
    • "Not" items speak for themselves - steer clear.
  • 2014 In Review: Best Of The Silver Bullet Awards
    Dec. 30, 2014 DIA, SPY, QQQ 53 Comments

    Summary

    • 2014 in Review: Best of the Silver Bullet Awards.
    • Causation/Correlation fallacies lead to mass confusion in 2014.
    • The blogosphere's unsung heroes earn their due recognition.
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Pundit Forecasts For 2015
    Editors' Pick • Dec. 21, 2014 DIA, IWM, QQQ 78 Comments

    Summary

    • Last week's volatility combined the expected themes of oil prices and the Fed.
    • Most of the news was good, as was the market reaction.
    • The trading theme of oil prices and stocks has broken down.
    • There are many interesting investment ideas.
    • It is time for a quiet week with an early focus on 2015 forecasts.
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Crashing Energy Prices Change The Fed's Course?
    Editors' Pick • Dec. 14, 2014 DIA, SPY, QQQ 64 Comments

    Summary

    • Last week's economic news - especial retail sales - was good.
    • Last week's stock market was really bad!
    • It is all about oil and the implications of crashing prices.
    • This week features more analysis of energy combined with the Fed meeting.
    • There are many investment implications - what does the market offer?
  • Crucial Facts About Energy Stocks
    Editors' Pick • Dec. 10, 2014 XOP, IEO, PXE 298 Comments

    Summary

    • Oil prices and energy stocks are in freefall.
    • There are plenty of pundits without any real knowledge.
    • This creates an opportunity for investors who can pick the right energy subsectors.
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For A Santa Claus Rally?
    Editors' Pick • Dec. 7, 2014 DIA, SPY, QQQ 36 Comments

    Summary

    • Economic news continues to be strong, outpacing stock gains.
    • Oil prices remain a wild card - a warning or an opportunity?
    • A light calendar of scheduled economic data, leaving time for pundit prognostications.
    • Expect plenty of talk about a Santa Claus rally, despite mixed prospects.
  • Keeping Investors Scared Witless
    Dec. 5, 2014 DIA, SPY, QQQ 43 Comments

    Summary

    • The negativity barrage continues.
    • Short term warnings: Uncritical publicity for Omens and charts.
    • Long term warnings: No account for inflation.
    • Bond pundits -- You cannot take chips off if you never made a bet!
    • Some fairness and reality about those 2009 predictions -- Dow 20K?
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For Digestion?
    Editors' Pick • Nov. 30, 2014 DIA, SPY, QQQ 49 Comments

    Summary

    • Plenty of data last week merely re-emphasized the message of modest growth - small misses from expectations.
    • The OPEC news was not really a surprise, but still had a big effect.
    • Next week will include digestion of the OPEC news, the Fed Beige Book, and plenty of data about jobs.
    • The return of the "A Teams" will mean better analysis of the energy news, with some winners and losers in prospect.
    • I like refiners and integrated oil companies.
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Are Investors Too Complacent?
    Editors' Pick • Nov. 23, 2014 DIA, SPY, QQQ 41 Comments

    Summary

    • Last week's data were mostly good, especially for the U.S.
    • With fresh concerns in short supply and volatility low, some have turned to worrying about complacency.
    • Quiet markets can be the result of intense disputes among participants, with careful consideration by all.
    • The holiday-shortened week has plenty of data, the OPEC meeting, and Black Friday.
    • The combination of news and low-volume trading may provide opportunities for both investors and traders.
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time To Buy Commodities?
    Editors' Pick • Nov. 16, 2014 DIA, SPY, QQQ 32 Comments

    Summary

    • Last week's news was mostly positive, with plenty of extreme commentary in all directions.
    • This week features inflation data, housing, and the Fed.
    • With many looking for beaten-down stocks and sectors, commodities will be featured in the market debate.
    • The risk/reward for energy stocks has become more attractive.
    • Technical trading indicators have become more positive.
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Too Late To Join The Stock Rally?
    Nov. 9, 2014 DIA, SPY, QQQ 55 Comments

    Summary

    • News was generally good and markets made new highs.
    • Many year-end targets are close while others are chasing performance.
    • It is a thin week for hard news, but featuring plenty of Fedspeak.
    • Dueling pundits will be asking whether it is too late to join the rally.
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: What Does The End Of QE Mean To The Individual Investor?
    Editors' Pick • Nov. 2, 2014 SPY, QQQ, DIA 67 Comments

    Summary

    • Economic and market news have both turned positive.
    • It is a new era for data interpretation - no longer parsed through the impact on QE.
    • Those who have a QE fixation need a new interpretative approach; the final act of tapering made little difference.
    • Recession odds remain low.
    • Plenty of stock ideas are consistent with the current business cycle.
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Is The Stock Market Correction Over?
    Editors' Pick • Oct. 19, 2014 DIA, SPY, QQQ 188 Comments

    Summary

    • A wild week for stocks had pundits shifting from doom to bottom-calling!
    • Economic news was solid, except for retail sales.
    • Headline risk continues to dominate news cycles -- difficult to quantify.
    • Earnings reports were good on the past but weak on guidance.
    • The short-term question for traders remains the chance of a bottom -- different for investors.
  • Understanding Value - With Apologies To Graham And Buffett
    Oct. 17, 2014 DIA, SPY, QQQ 27 Comments

    Summary

    • Sometimes a little humor is the best message.
    • Apologies to Mr. Graham and Mr. Buffett for my take on Mr. Market.
    • Understanding value can help in avoiding market timing traps.
    • A few investment themes to consider, especially travel, leisure, and energy.
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Can Earnings Season Reverse The Stock Market Decline?
    Editors' Pick • Oct. 12, 2014 SPY, QQQ, SH 83 Comments

    Summary

    • Last week was mostly about speeches - little real news.
    • There is increasing concern about global economic issues.
    • Corporate earnings will provide a reality check.
    • Traders are playing the trend. Investors might choose a different path.
    • Fundamental market factors suggest that declines will be limited.
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Global Weakness Drag Down The U.S. Economy?
    Editors' Pick • Oct. 5, 2014 DIA, SPY, QQQ 29 Comments

    Summary

    • Last week's data were positive, despite the market weakness.
    • The week ahead features low signal to noise -- little data and plenty of speeches!
    • Global economic issues will be the focus, and the general tone is negative.
    • Short-term trading indicators remain bearish, but investment prospects more positive.
    • Employment was the best news of the week and Confidence the worst.
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Investor Lessons From This Week's Data Deluge
    Editors' Pick • Sep. 28, 2014 DIA, SPY, QQQ 33 Comments

    Summary

    • Market divergences were the highlight last week -- as expected and in contrast to news.
    • The week ahead features a deluge of data -- a test of current market "messages".
    • The outlook for traders has turned more pessimistic.
    • Investors can enjoy a different time frame, with little risk from recession.
    • Some beaten down sectors offer special opportunities.
  • Circular Reasoning About Commodities
    Sep. 26, 2014 ESV, FCX, GLD 20 Comments

    Summary

    • To beat the market, you must find inefficiencies - Seek Alpha!
    • This requires more than noting a trend.
    • Commodity prices often reflect false signals - as in 2011.
    • Current prices reflect dollar strength, not economic weakness.
    • Energy and materials stocks provide a good way of playing this theme.
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Should Stock Investors Fear Current 'Divergences'?
    Editors' Pick • Sep. 21, 2014 SPY, QQQ, SH 43 Comments

    Summary

    • The FOMC news was a non-event for most markets, but the dollar rallied.
    • In an otherwise quiet time, many are noting "divergences" in small caps, commodities, gold and even Bitcoin.
    • The economic news has been mostly positive, with a drag from housing.
    • A key decision for stock investors? How much to worry about short-term effects on the dollar.
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will The Fed Change Course?
    Sep. 14, 2014 DIA, SPY, QQQ 20 Comments

    Summary

    • Last week's market focus highlighted stocks -- mostly Apple news.
    • The balance of economic news was good, while international news was negative.
    • Interest rate increases and dollar strength have been weighing on stocks.
    • The Fed is likely to change the "extended time" language.
    • Market reaction may represent a challenge for traders and an opportunity for investors.
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Finding Stocks For The 2014 Homestretch
    Editors' Pick • Sep. 7, 2014 SPY, QQQ, SH 33 Comments

    Summary

    • Last week featured strong economic data - except for the employment report.
    • The week ahead is light on economic news, but features big corporate stories.
    • Managers, returning from vacation, may start thinking about stock picking.
    • Which stocks rate to do well for the remainder of 2014?
    • The economic cycle helps us find the most promising sectors and stocks.
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Job Growth Sustain The Rally?
    Editors' Pick • Sep. 1, 2014 DIA, SPY, QQQ 41 Comments

    Summary

    • Market participants return from vacation to a week filled with economic data.
    • Employment data is more important than ever in the wake of the Jackson Hole Symposium.
    • World events continue to raise concerns, but the market shows continuing strength.
    • Economic news has been mixed -- consumption items weak, yet confidence strong.
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For Central Bankers To Unwind?
    Editors' Pick • Aug. 17, 2014 DIA, SPY, QQQ 62 Comments

    Summary

    • Last week's geopolitics theme played out in a data vacuum.
    • This week's agenda has plenty of data with a Fed focus from Wednesday to Friday.
    • The Jackson Hole symposium will provide a chance for personal unwinding, but not much change in central bank balance sheets.
    • Last week's news flow was balanced. Some sources see opportunities for long-term investors.
    • Our short-term trading indicator still leans slightly bearish.
  • The Misleading Story About George Soros's Filing
    Aug. 16, 2014 77 Comments

    Summary

    • The George Soros filing was a major story - people like to follow the big names.
    • Every media source played it as a huge bearish bet - they are all wrong.
    • The required filings tell us nothing.
    • The government needs to change the rules. Until then we should just ignore such "information."
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: The Market Risk From Current Crises
    Editors' Pick • Aug. 10, 2014 DIA, SPY, QQQ 54 Comments

    Summary

    • Global headline risk from military crises has increased.
    • Headlines and technical trading combine to create additional volatility.
    • Economic news remains good in the US, but weaker in Europe.
    • Separating the human and market effects is a challenge for investors.
    • With little scheduled news, slow summer trading, and options expiration, big moves are possible.
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will The Fed Experiment End Badly?
    Editors' Pick • Aug. 3, 2014 DIA, SPY, QQQ 85 Comments

    Summary

    • Economic news last week was mostly positive, but the stock market was certainly not!
    • There is heightened Fed skepticism raising the question: Will it all end badly?
    • The lack of fresh news on tap allows plenty of time for pundit speculation.
    • Trading indicators remain in a neutral range; economic fundamentals remain sound.
    • Investors should prepare for another two years of the Fed debate.
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Earnings Growth Reignite The Stock Rally?
    Editors' Pick • Jul. 20, 2014 DIA, SPY, QQQ 20 Comments

    Summary

    • Stocks have been resilient in the face of many challenges.
    • Economic news has disappointed.
    • Attention has turned to corporate earnings. Will the reports be enough?
    • Opportunities remain for long-term investors.
    • Geopolitical risks present special challenges for investors -- some advice.