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Weighing The Week Ahead: Are Investors Too Complacent?
- Last week's data were mostly good, especially for the U.S.
- With fresh concerns in short supply and volatility low, some have turned to worrying about complacency.
- Quiet markets can be the result of intense disputes among participants, with careful consideration by all.
- The holiday-shortened week has plenty of data, the OPEC meeting, and Black Friday.
- The combination of news and low-volume trading may provide opportunities for both investors and traders.
Weighing The Week Ahead: Time To Buy Commodities?
- Last week's news was mostly positive, with plenty of extreme commentary in all directions.
- This week features inflation data, housing, and the Fed.
- With many looking for beaten-down stocks and sectors, commodities will be featured in the market debate.
- The risk/reward for energy stocks has become more attractive.
- Technical trading indicators have become more positive.
Weighing The Week Ahead: Too Late To Join The Stock Rally?
- News was generally good and markets made new highs.
- Many year-end targets are close while others are chasing performance.
- It is a thin week for hard news, but featuring plenty of Fedspeak.
- Dueling pundits will be asking whether it is too late to join the rally.
Weighing The Week Ahead: What Does The End Of QE Mean To The Individual Investor?
- Economic and market news have both turned positive.
- It is a new era for data interpretation - no longer parsed through the impact on QE.
- Those who have a QE fixation need a new interpretative approach; the final act of tapering made little difference.
- Recession odds remain low.
- Plenty of stock ideas are consistent with the current business cycle.
Weighing The Week Ahead: Is The Stock Market Correction Over?
- A wild week for stocks had pundits shifting from doom to bottom-calling!
- Economic news was solid, except for retail sales.
- Headline risk continues to dominate news cycles -- difficult to quantify.
- Earnings reports were good on the past but weak on guidance.
- The short-term question for traders remains the chance of a bottom -- different for investors.
Understanding Value - With Apologies To Graham And Buffett
- Sometimes a little humor is the best message.
- Apologies to Mr. Graham and Mr. Buffett for my take on Mr. Market.
- Understanding value can help in avoiding market timing traps.
- A few investment themes to consider, especially travel, leisure, and energy.
Weighing The Week Ahead: Can Earnings Season Reverse The Stock Market Decline?
- Last week was mostly about speeches - little real news.
- There is increasing concern about global economic issues.
- Corporate earnings will provide a reality check.
- Traders are playing the trend. Investors might choose a different path.
- Fundamental market factors suggest that declines will be limited.
Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Global Weakness Drag Down The U.S. Economy?
- Last week's data were positive, despite the market weakness.
- The week ahead features low signal to noise -- little data and plenty of speeches!
- Global economic issues will be the focus, and the general tone is negative.
- Short-term trading indicators remain bearish, but investment prospects more positive.
- Employment was the best news of the week and Confidence the worst.
Weighing The Week Ahead: Investor Lessons From This Week's Data Deluge
- Market divergences were the highlight last week -- as expected and in contrast to news.
- The week ahead features a deluge of data -- a test of current market "messages".
- The outlook for traders has turned more pessimistic.
- Investors can enjoy a different time frame, with little risk from recession.
- Some beaten down sectors offer special opportunities.
Circular Reasoning About Commodities
- To beat the market, you must find inefficiencies - Seek Alpha!
- This requires more than noting a trend.
- Commodity prices often reflect false signals - as in 2011.
- Current prices reflect dollar strength, not economic weakness.
- Energy and materials stocks provide a good way of playing this theme.
Weighing The Week Ahead: Should Stock Investors Fear Current 'Divergences'?
- The FOMC news was a non-event for most markets, but the dollar rallied.
- In an otherwise quiet time, many are noting "divergences" in small caps, commodities, gold and even Bitcoin.
- The economic news has been mostly positive, with a drag from housing.
- A key decision for stock investors? How much to worry about short-term effects on the dollar.
Weighing The Week Ahead: Will The Fed Change Course?
- Last week's market focus highlighted stocks -- mostly Apple news.
- The balance of economic news was good, while international news was negative.
- Interest rate increases and dollar strength have been weighing on stocks.
- The Fed is likely to change the "extended time" language.
- Market reaction may represent a challenge for traders and an opportunity for investors.
Weighing The Week Ahead: Finding Stocks For The 2014 Homestretch
- Last week featured strong economic data - except for the employment report.
- The week ahead is light on economic news, but features big corporate stories.
- Managers, returning from vacation, may start thinking about stock picking.
- Which stocks rate to do well for the remainder of 2014?
- The economic cycle helps us find the most promising sectors and stocks.
Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Job Growth Sustain The Rally?
- Market participants return from vacation to a week filled with economic data.
- Employment data is more important than ever in the wake of the Jackson Hole Symposium.
- World events continue to raise concerns, but the market shows continuing strength.
- Economic news has been mixed -- consumption items weak, yet confidence strong.
Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For Central Bankers To Unwind?
- Last week's geopolitics theme played out in a data vacuum.
- This week's agenda has plenty of data with a Fed focus from Wednesday to Friday.
- The Jackson Hole symposium will provide a chance for personal unwinding, but not much change in central bank balance sheets.
- Last week's news flow was balanced. Some sources see opportunities for long-term investors.
- Our short-term trading indicator still leans slightly bearish.
The Misleading Story About George Soros's Filing
Sat, Aug. 16 • 77 Comments
- The George Soros filing was a major story - people like to follow the big names.
- Every media source played it as a huge bearish bet - they are all wrong.
- The required filings tell us nothing.
- The government needs to change the rules. Until then we should just ignore such "information."
Weighing The Week Ahead: The Market Risk From Current Crises
- Global headline risk from military crises has increased.
- Headlines and technical trading combine to create additional volatility.
- Economic news remains good in the US, but weaker in Europe.
- Separating the human and market effects is a challenge for investors.
- With little scheduled news, slow summer trading, and options expiration, big moves are possible.
Weighing The Week Ahead: Will The Fed Experiment End Badly?
- Economic news last week was mostly positive, but the stock market was certainly not!
- There is heightened Fed skepticism raising the question: Will it all end badly?
- The lack of fresh news on tap allows plenty of time for pundit speculation.
- Trading indicators remain in a neutral range; economic fundamentals remain sound.
- Investors should prepare for another two years of the Fed debate.
Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Earnings Growth Reignite The Stock Rally?
- Stocks have been resilient in the face of many challenges.
- Economic news has disappointed.
- Attention has turned to corporate earnings. Will the reports be enough?
- Opportunities remain for long-term investors.
- Geopolitical risks present special challenges for investors -- some advice.
Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For A Mid-Course Correction?
- Last week's economic data were encouraging.
- In a light week for fresh news, the focus will be on plans for the second half of 2014.
- There are several possible market viewpoints; what is the evidence for each?
- Stocks have responded to earnings and bonds to economic weakness.
- What to watch for in the next six months.
Weighing The Week Ahead: Economic Fireworks?
- Stunning decline in Q1 GDP has sharpened the economic debate.
- Last week saw a sharp contrast in economic news.
- Overall tone remains slightly bullish, with interesting ideas for long-term investors.
- Important economic data -- especially employment -- combine with a short trading week.
Weighing The Week Ahead: Is The Fed Behind The Curve?
- Markets were quietly positive, with attention focused on Fed policy.
- Next week's data may encourage more of the Fed focus: Is the Fed behind the curve?.
- Economic data were modestly positive.
- Trading and investment perspectives continue to show a positive edge.
- Iraq remains a wild card, and there will be plenty of FedSpeak next week.
Weighing The Week Ahead: What Does The Iraq Conflict Mean For Markets?
- The Iraq conflict dominated market news as last week ended, and will probably lead for the week ahead.
- Investors must -- as usual -- separate the important and interesting policy and political issues from the market implications.
- General economic conditions remain encouraging, in spite of slightly disappointing news last week.
- The week will also feature the latest installment of Fed Chair Yellen and market communication.
Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For A Market Breakout?
- Last week reflected a quiet recognition of improved conditions.
- Volatility and volume remain low -- too quiet?
- Most expect a break, but opinion is divided about the direction.
- Short-term indicators have improved.
- My regular collection of current advice for investors includes some new themes.
Advice For Young Investors
- The investment industry neglects young people.
- It is a time of opportunity, but also potentially confusing.
- There is nothing wrong with a "fast decision" to move on -- even if it seems like failure.
- There are many great resources to get started -- Parents and Grandparents could help.
- Learn to be a citizen, but keep your investing separate.
Weighing The Week Ahead: More Clarity From The Market Message?
- The markets for stocks, bonds, and options suggest varying conclusions.
- This week's news and data may provide clarity.
- Trading and investing time frames continue to offer different opportunities.
- If one accepts the market message as gospel, why try to gain an edge?
Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Sluggish Housing Growth Derail The Economy?
- Housing continues to be an important economic story; reports mostly sluggish.
- Last week had little data, but a mildly positive tone.
- Sideways market conditions continue.
- A neutral market means different things for traders and investors - ideas for each group.
The Sound Of Silence
- Most pundits change indicators to suit their fancy.
- Several recent worries have abated.
- Investors could profit by thinking about how the "wall of worry" leads them astray.
Weighing The Week Ahead: What Does The Bond Rally Mean For Stocks?
- Current market attention? The surprise rally in bonds. "Divergences" still an issue.
- Economic news mixed, with a positive lean.
- A light week for fresh data -- the pundits' paradise.
- Intermediate outlook still positive.
- Plenty of ideas and perspective for long-term investors.
What Can We Learn From The 'Tuesday Effect?'
- The "Tuesday Effect" has been powerful in 2014 -- until last week.
- There are good reasons for skepticism.
- The lesson can be applied to other alleged seasonal patterns.
Weighing The Week Ahead: Time To Worry About 'Divergences'?
- What is the message of weakness in part of the stock market?.
- Last week's economic news was mostly positive.
- Recession risk remains very low.
- Fundamental analysis shows stocks to be attractive -- sector shifts normal.
Weighing The Week Ahead: Is The Ukraine Crisis Important For Financial Markets?
- Ukraine tensions are high, and there is little fresh data this week.
- Economic data have been trending positively.
- Short-term indicators have improved.
- Actual Ukraine effects are small - perhaps an opportunity to shop the dips.