Seeking Alpha

Jeff Miller

 
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  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Crashing Energy Prices Change The Fed's Course?
    Editors' Pick • Sun, Dec. 14 DIA, SPY, QQQ 64 Comments

    Summary

    • Last week's economic news - especial retail sales - was good.
    • Last week's stock market was really bad!
    • It is all about oil and the implications of crashing prices.
    • This week features more analysis of energy combined with the Fed meeting.
    • There are many investment implications - what does the market offer?
  • Crucial Facts About Energy Stocks
    Editors' Pick • Wed, Dec. 10 XOP, IEO, PXE 285 Comments

    Summary

    • Oil prices and energy stocks are in freefall.
    • There are plenty of pundits without any real knowledge.
    • This creates an opportunity for investors who can pick the right energy subsectors.
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For A Santa Claus Rally?
    Editors' Pick • Sun, Dec. 7 DIA, SPY, QQQ 36 Comments

    Summary

    • Economic news continues to be strong, outpacing stock gains.
    • Oil prices remain a wild card - a warning or an opportunity?
    • A light calendar of scheduled economic data, leaving time for pundit prognostications.
    • Expect plenty of talk about a Santa Claus rally, despite mixed prospects.
  • Keeping Investors Scared Witless
    Fri, Dec. 5 DIA, SPY, QQQ 43 Comments

    Summary

    • The negativity barrage continues.
    • Short term warnings: Uncritical publicity for Omens and charts.
    • Long term warnings: No account for inflation.
    • Bond pundits -- You cannot take chips off if you never made a bet!
    • Some fairness and reality about those 2009 predictions -- Dow 20K?
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For Digestion?
    Editors' Pick • Sun, Nov. 30 DIA, SPY, QQQ 49 Comments

    Summary

    • Plenty of data last week merely re-emphasized the message of modest growth - small misses from expectations.
    • The OPEC news was not really a surprise, but still had a big effect.
    • Next week will include digestion of the OPEC news, the Fed Beige Book, and plenty of data about jobs.
    • The return of the "A Teams" will mean better analysis of the energy news, with some winners and losers in prospect.
    • I like refiners and integrated oil companies.
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Are Investors Too Complacent?
    Editors' Pick • Sun, Nov. 23 DIA, SPY, QQQ 41 Comments

    Summary

    • Last week's data were mostly good, especially for the U.S.
    • With fresh concerns in short supply and volatility low, some have turned to worrying about complacency.
    • Quiet markets can be the result of intense disputes among participants, with careful consideration by all.
    • The holiday-shortened week has plenty of data, the OPEC meeting, and Black Friday.
    • The combination of news and low-volume trading may provide opportunities for both investors and traders.
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time To Buy Commodities?
    Editors' Pick • Sun, Nov. 16 DIA, SPY, QQQ 32 Comments

    Summary

    • Last week's news was mostly positive, with plenty of extreme commentary in all directions.
    • This week features inflation data, housing, and the Fed.
    • With many looking for beaten-down stocks and sectors, commodities will be featured in the market debate.
    • The risk/reward for energy stocks has become more attractive.
    • Technical trading indicators have become more positive.
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Too Late To Join The Stock Rally?
    Sun, Nov. 9 DIA, SPY, QQQ 55 Comments

    Summary

    • News was generally good and markets made new highs.
    • Many year-end targets are close while others are chasing performance.
    • It is a thin week for hard news, but featuring plenty of Fedspeak.
    • Dueling pundits will be asking whether it is too late to join the rally.
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: What Does The End Of QE Mean To The Individual Investor?
    Editors' Pick • Sun, Nov. 2 SPY, QQQ, DIA 67 Comments

    Summary

    • Economic and market news have both turned positive.
    • It is a new era for data interpretation - no longer parsed through the impact on QE.
    • Those who have a QE fixation need a new interpretative approach; the final act of tapering made little difference.
    • Recession odds remain low.
    • Plenty of stock ideas are consistent with the current business cycle.
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Is The Stock Market Correction Over?
    Editors' Pick • Sun, Oct. 19 DIA, SPY, QQQ 188 Comments

    Summary

    • A wild week for stocks had pundits shifting from doom to bottom-calling!
    • Economic news was solid, except for retail sales.
    • Headline risk continues to dominate news cycles -- difficult to quantify.
    • Earnings reports were good on the past but weak on guidance.
    • The short-term question for traders remains the chance of a bottom -- different for investors.
  • Understanding Value - With Apologies To Graham And Buffett
    Fri, Oct. 17 DIA, SPY, QQQ 27 Comments

    Summary

    • Sometimes a little humor is the best message.
    • Apologies to Mr. Graham and Mr. Buffett for my take on Mr. Market.
    • Understanding value can help in avoiding market timing traps.
    • A few investment themes to consider, especially travel, leisure, and energy.
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Can Earnings Season Reverse The Stock Market Decline?
    Editors' Pick • Sun, Oct. 12 SPY, QQQ, SH 83 Comments

    Summary

    • Last week was mostly about speeches - little real news.
    • There is increasing concern about global economic issues.
    • Corporate earnings will provide a reality check.
    • Traders are playing the trend. Investors might choose a different path.
    • Fundamental market factors suggest that declines will be limited.
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Global Weakness Drag Down The U.S. Economy?
    Editors' Pick • Sun, Oct. 5 DIA, SPY, QQQ 29 Comments

    Summary

    • Last week's data were positive, despite the market weakness.
    • The week ahead features low signal to noise -- little data and plenty of speeches!
    • Global economic issues will be the focus, and the general tone is negative.
    • Short-term trading indicators remain bearish, but investment prospects more positive.
    • Employment was the best news of the week and Confidence the worst.
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Investor Lessons From This Week's Data Deluge
    Editors' Pick • Sun, Sep. 28 DIA, SPY, QQQ 33 Comments

    Summary

    • Market divergences were the highlight last week -- as expected and in contrast to news.
    • The week ahead features a deluge of data -- a test of current market "messages".
    • The outlook for traders has turned more pessimistic.
    • Investors can enjoy a different time frame, with little risk from recession.
    • Some beaten down sectors offer special opportunities.
  • Circular Reasoning About Commodities
    Fri, Sep. 26 ESV, FCX, GLD 20 Comments

    Summary

    • To beat the market, you must find inefficiencies - Seek Alpha!
    • This requires more than noting a trend.
    • Commodity prices often reflect false signals - as in 2011.
    • Current prices reflect dollar strength, not economic weakness.
    • Energy and materials stocks provide a good way of playing this theme.
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Should Stock Investors Fear Current 'Divergences'?
    Editors' Pick • Sun, Sep. 21 SPY, QQQ, SH 43 Comments

    Summary

    • The FOMC news was a non-event for most markets, but the dollar rallied.
    • In an otherwise quiet time, many are noting "divergences" in small caps, commodities, gold and even Bitcoin.
    • The economic news has been mostly positive, with a drag from housing.
    • A key decision for stock investors? How much to worry about short-term effects on the dollar.
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will The Fed Change Course?
    Sun, Sep. 14 DIA, SPY, QQQ 20 Comments

    Summary

    • Last week's market focus highlighted stocks -- mostly Apple news.
    • The balance of economic news was good, while international news was negative.
    • Interest rate increases and dollar strength have been weighing on stocks.
    • The Fed is likely to change the "extended time" language.
    • Market reaction may represent a challenge for traders and an opportunity for investors.
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Finding Stocks For The 2014 Homestretch
    Editors' Pick • Sun, Sep. 7 SPY, QQQ, SH 33 Comments

    Summary

    • Last week featured strong economic data - except for the employment report.
    • The week ahead is light on economic news, but features big corporate stories.
    • Managers, returning from vacation, may start thinking about stock picking.
    • Which stocks rate to do well for the remainder of 2014?
    • The economic cycle helps us find the most promising sectors and stocks.
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Job Growth Sustain The Rally?
    Editors' Pick • Mon, Sep. 1 DIA, SPY, QQQ 41 Comments

    Summary

    • Market participants return from vacation to a week filled with economic data.
    • Employment data is more important than ever in the wake of the Jackson Hole Symposium.
    • World events continue to raise concerns, but the market shows continuing strength.
    • Economic news has been mixed -- consumption items weak, yet confidence strong.
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For Central Bankers To Unwind?
    Editors' Pick • Sun, Aug. 17 DIA, SPY, QQQ 62 Comments

    Summary

    • Last week's geopolitics theme played out in a data vacuum.
    • This week's agenda has plenty of data with a Fed focus from Wednesday to Friday.
    • The Jackson Hole symposium will provide a chance for personal unwinding, but not much change in central bank balance sheets.
    • Last week's news flow was balanced. Some sources see opportunities for long-term investors.
    • Our short-term trading indicator still leans slightly bearish.
  • The Misleading Story About George Soros's Filing
    Sat, Aug. 16 77 Comments

    Summary

    • The George Soros filing was a major story - people like to follow the big names.
    • Every media source played it as a huge bearish bet - they are all wrong.
    • The required filings tell us nothing.
    • The government needs to change the rules. Until then we should just ignore such "information."
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: The Market Risk From Current Crises
    Editors' Pick • Sun, Aug. 10 DIA, SPY, QQQ 54 Comments

    Summary

    • Global headline risk from military crises has increased.
    • Headlines and technical trading combine to create additional volatility.
    • Economic news remains good in the US, but weaker in Europe.
    • Separating the human and market effects is a challenge for investors.
    • With little scheduled news, slow summer trading, and options expiration, big moves are possible.
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will The Fed Experiment End Badly?
    Editors' Pick • Sun, Aug. 3 DIA, SPY, QQQ 85 Comments

    Summary

    • Economic news last week was mostly positive, but the stock market was certainly not!
    • There is heightened Fed skepticism raising the question: Will it all end badly?
    • The lack of fresh news on tap allows plenty of time for pundit speculation.
    • Trading indicators remain in a neutral range; economic fundamentals remain sound.
    • Investors should prepare for another two years of the Fed debate.
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Earnings Growth Reignite The Stock Rally?
    Editors' Pick • Sun, Jul. 20 DIA, SPY, QQQ 20 Comments

    Summary

    • Stocks have been resilient in the face of many challenges.
    • Economic news has disappointed.
    • Attention has turned to corporate earnings. Will the reports be enough?
    • Opportunities remain for long-term investors.
    • Geopolitical risks present special challenges for investors -- some advice.
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For A Mid-Course Correction?
    Sun, Jul. 6 DIA, SPY, QQQ 42 Comments

    Summary

    • Last week's economic data were encouraging.
    • In a light week for fresh news, the focus will be on plans for the second half of 2014.
    • There are several possible market viewpoints; what is the evidence for each?
    • Stocks have responded to earnings and bonds to economic weakness.
    • What to watch for in the next six months.
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Economic Fireworks?
    Editors' Pick • Sun, Jun. 29 DIA, SPY, QQQ 59 Comments

    Summary

    • Stunning decline in Q1 GDP has sharpened the economic debate.
    • Last week saw a sharp contrast in economic news.
    • Overall tone remains slightly bullish, with interesting ideas for long-term investors.
    • Important economic data -- especially employment -- combine with a short trading week.
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Is The Fed Behind The Curve?
    Editors' Pick • Sun, Jun. 22 SPY, QQQ, SH 72 Comments

    Summary

    • Markets were quietly positive, with attention focused on Fed policy.
    • Next week's data may encourage more of the Fed focus: Is the Fed behind the curve?.
    • Economic data were modestly positive.
    • Trading and investment perspectives continue to show a positive edge.
    • Iraq remains a wild card, and there will be plenty of FedSpeak next week.
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: What Does The Iraq Conflict Mean For Markets?
    Editors' Pick • Sun, Jun. 15 DIA, SPY, QQQ 52 Comments

    Summary

    • The Iraq conflict dominated market news as last week ended, and will probably lead for the week ahead.
    • Investors must -- as usual -- separate the important and interesting policy and political issues from the market implications.
    • General economic conditions remain encouraging, in spite of slightly disappointing news last week.
    • The week will also feature the latest installment of Fed Chair Yellen and market communication.
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For A Market Breakout?
    Sun, Jun. 8 DIA, SPY, QQQ 31 Comments

    Summary

    • Last week reflected a quiet recognition of improved conditions.
    • Volatility and volume remain low -- too quiet?
    • Most expect a break, but opinion is divided about the direction.
    • Short-term indicators have improved.
    • My regular collection of current advice for investors includes some new themes.
  • Advice For Young Investors
    Fri, Jun. 6 DIA, SPY, QQQ 36 Comments

    Summary

    • The investment industry neglects young people.
    • It is a time of opportunity, but also potentially confusing.
    • There is nothing wrong with a "fast decision" to move on -- even if it seems like failure.
    • There are many great resources to get started -- Parents and Grandparents could help.
    • Learn to be a citizen, but keep your investing separate.
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: More Clarity From The Market Message?
    Editors' Pick • Sun, Jun. 1 SPY, QQQ, SH 30 Comments

    Summary

    • The markets for stocks, bonds, and options suggest varying conclusions.
    • This week's news and data may provide clarity.
    • Trading and investing time frames continue to offer different opportunities.
    • If one accepts the market message as gospel, why try to gain an edge?
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Sluggish Housing Growth Derail The Economy?
    Editors' Pick • Sun, May. 25 SPY, QQQ, SH 36 Comments

    Summary

    • Housing continues to be an important economic story; reports mostly sluggish.
    • Last week had little data, but a mildly positive tone.
    • Sideways market conditions continue.
    • A neutral market means different things for traders and investors - ideas for each group.