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Jeff Miller

 
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  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For Central Bankers To Unwind?
    Editors' Pick • Sun, Aug. 17 DIA, SPY, QQQ 62 Comments

    Summary

    • Last week's geopolitics theme played out in a data vacuum.
    • This week's agenda has plenty of data with a Fed focus from Wednesday to Friday.
    • The Jackson Hole symposium will provide a chance for personal unwinding, but not much change in central bank balance sheets.
    • Last week's news flow was balanced. Some sources see opportunities for long-term investors.
    • Our short-term trading indicator still leans slightly bearish.
  • The Misleading Story About George Soros's Filing
    Sat, Aug. 16 77 Comments

    Summary

    • The George Soros filing was a major story - people like to follow the big names.
    • Every media source played it as a huge bearish bet - they are all wrong.
    • The required filings tell us nothing.
    • The government needs to change the rules. Until then we should just ignore such "information."
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: The Market Risk From Current Crises
    Editors' Pick • Sun, Aug. 10 DIA, SPY, QQQ 54 Comments

    Summary

    • Global headline risk from military crises has increased.
    • Headlines and technical trading combine to create additional volatility.
    • Economic news remains good in the US, but weaker in Europe.
    • Separating the human and market effects is a challenge for investors.
    • With little scheduled news, slow summer trading, and options expiration, big moves are possible.
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will The Fed Experiment End Badly?
    Editors' Pick • Sun, Aug. 3 DIA, SPY, QQQ 85 Comments

    Summary

    • Economic news last week was mostly positive, but the stock market was certainly not!
    • There is heightened Fed skepticism raising the question: Will it all end badly?
    • The lack of fresh news on tap allows plenty of time for pundit speculation.
    • Trading indicators remain in a neutral range; economic fundamentals remain sound.
    • Investors should prepare for another two years of the Fed debate.
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Earnings Growth Reignite The Stock Rally?
    Editors' Pick • Sun, Jul. 20 DIA, SPY, QQQ 20 Comments

    Summary

    • Stocks have been resilient in the face of many challenges.
    • Economic news has disappointed.
    • Attention has turned to corporate earnings. Will the reports be enough?
    • Opportunities remain for long-term investors.
    • Geopolitical risks present special challenges for investors -- some advice.
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For A Mid-Course Correction?
    Sun, Jul. 6 DIA, SPY, QQQ 42 Comments

    Summary

    • Last week's economic data were encouraging.
    • In a light week for fresh news, the focus will be on plans for the second half of 2014.
    • There are several possible market viewpoints; what is the evidence for each?
    • Stocks have responded to earnings and bonds to economic weakness.
    • What to watch for in the next six months.
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Economic Fireworks?
    Editors' Pick • Sun, Jun. 29 DIA, SPY, QQQ 59 Comments

    Summary

    • Stunning decline in Q1 GDP has sharpened the economic debate.
    • Last week saw a sharp contrast in economic news.
    • Overall tone remains slightly bullish, with interesting ideas for long-term investors.
    • Important economic data -- especially employment -- combine with a short trading week.
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Is The Fed Behind The Curve?
    Editors' Pick • Sun, Jun. 22 SPY, QQQ, SH 72 Comments

    Summary

    • Markets were quietly positive, with attention focused on Fed policy.
    • Next week's data may encourage more of the Fed focus: Is the Fed behind the curve?.
    • Economic data were modestly positive.
    • Trading and investment perspectives continue to show a positive edge.
    • Iraq remains a wild card, and there will be plenty of FedSpeak next week.
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: What Does The Iraq Conflict Mean For Markets?
    Editors' Pick • Sun, Jun. 15 DIA, SPY, QQQ 52 Comments

    Summary

    • The Iraq conflict dominated market news as last week ended, and will probably lead for the week ahead.
    • Investors must -- as usual -- separate the important and interesting policy and political issues from the market implications.
    • General economic conditions remain encouraging, in spite of slightly disappointing news last week.
    • The week will also feature the latest installment of Fed Chair Yellen and market communication.
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For A Market Breakout?
    Sun, Jun. 8 DIA, SPY, QQQ 31 Comments

    Summary

    • Last week reflected a quiet recognition of improved conditions.
    • Volatility and volume remain low -- too quiet?
    • Most expect a break, but opinion is divided about the direction.
    • Short-term indicators have improved.
    • My regular collection of current advice for investors includes some new themes.
  • Advice For Young Investors
    Fri, Jun. 6 DIA, SPY, QQQ 36 Comments

    Summary

    • The investment industry neglects young people.
    • It is a time of opportunity, but also potentially confusing.
    • There is nothing wrong with a "fast decision" to move on -- even if it seems like failure.
    • There are many great resources to get started -- Parents and Grandparents could help.
    • Learn to be a citizen, but keep your investing separate.
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: More Clarity From The Market Message?
    Editors' Pick • Sun, Jun. 1 SPY, QQQ, SH 30 Comments

    Summary

    • The markets for stocks, bonds, and options suggest varying conclusions.
    • This week's news and data may provide clarity.
    • Trading and investing time frames continue to offer different opportunities.
    • If one accepts the market message as gospel, why try to gain an edge?
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Sluggish Housing Growth Derail The Economy?
    Editors' Pick • Sun, May. 25 SPY, QQQ, SH 36 Comments

    Summary

    • Housing continues to be an important economic story; reports mostly sluggish.
    • Last week had little data, but a mildly positive tone.
    • Sideways market conditions continue.
    • A neutral market means different things for traders and investors - ideas for each group.
  • The Sound Of Silence
    Thu, May. 22 IWM, SPY, DIA 165 Comments

    Summary

    • Most pundits change indicators to suit their fancy.
    • Several recent worries have abated.
    • Investors could profit by thinking about how the "wall of worry" leads them astray.
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: What Does The Bond Rally Mean For Stocks?
    Editors' Pick • Sun, May. 18 DIA, SPY, QQQ 38 Comments

    Summary

    • Current market attention? The surprise rally in bonds. "Divergences" still an issue.
    • Economic news mixed, with a positive lean.
    • A light week for fresh data -- the pundits' paradise.
    • Intermediate outlook still positive.
    • Plenty of ideas and perspective for long-term investors.
  • What Can We Learn From The 'Tuesday Effect?'
    Tue, May. 13 SPY, DIA, QQQ 16 Comments

    Summary

    • The "Tuesday Effect" has been powerful in 2014 -- until last week.
    • There are good reasons for skepticism.
    • The lesson can be applied to other alleged seasonal patterns.
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time To Worry About 'Divergences'?
    Sun, May. 11 DIA, SPY, QQQ 42 Comments

    Summary

    • What is the message of weakness in part of the stock market?.
    • Last week's economic news was mostly positive.
    • Recession risk remains very low.
    • Fundamental analysis shows stocks to be attractive -- sector shifts normal.
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Is The Ukraine Crisis Important For Financial Markets?
    Mon, May. 5 SPY, QQQ, DIA 8 Comments

    Summary

    • Ukraine tensions are high, and there is little fresh data this week.
    • Economic data have been trending positively.
    • Short-term indicators have improved.
    • Actual Ukraine effects are small - perhaps an opportunity to shop the dips.
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time To 'Sell In May'?
    Sun, Apr. 27 DIA, SPY, QQQ 18 Comments

    Summary

    • Seasonal slogan time is here.
    • Five encouraging economic trends suggest (finally) escape velocity.
    • Most investors remain sidelined -- except the affluent.
    • There are some solid investment ideas that fit the climate.
    • Recession risk remains low.
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Springtime Optimism?
    Editors' Pick • Sun, Apr. 20 SPY, QQQ, SH 42 Comments

    Summary

    • Last week saw reduced volatility.
    • There is a possible seasonal inflection point - looking beyond weather effects.
    • Trading outlook is neutral.
    • Investors have opportunities in several sectors.
    • For economic insight, you might look to economists.
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: A Volatility Cocktail
    Editors' Pick • Sun, Apr. 13 DIA, SPY, QQQ 48 Comments

    Summary

    • Potential for Exceptionally High Volatility-- lots of events in a short week with options expiration.
    • Earnings could move things either way, so planning is required.
    • Traders might start by being neutral, prepared for agile moves.
    • Investors could be tested. They all know the theory of fading the market on interim moves, but few can execute.
    • Fundamental evidence suggests that any decline will not be a crash.
  • Strategy In The Face Of Volatility
    Thu, Apr. 10 CAT, NLY, CTSH 22 Comments

    Summary

    • Market volatility can be an opportunity.
    • If you have planned, you are not surprised.
    • The early 2014 Game plan has changed -- updates listed.
    • Don't be late for dinner!
  • Face-Off On Greece: An Interim Update
    Wed, Apr. 9 35 Comments

    Summary

    • Greece was the key worry two years ago -- John Mauldin highlighted concerns.
    • Some of us felt that government policy would be effective in response.
    • The Greek situation is now much better.
    • It is time for an interim accounting and an update from Mr. Mauldin.
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Fluff Or Fundamentals?
    Sun, Apr. 6 DIA, SPY, QQQ 29 Comments

    Summary

    • Despite plenty of promising economic data, the financial media have emphasized "soft" themes.
    • The coming week -- the last before earnings season -- is light on data.
    • The result might be uncertainty for traders and opportunity for investors.
    • And some "final thoughts" about stress tests and Flash Boys.
  • How To Handle A Big Gain
    Wed, Apr. 2 33 Comments

    Summary

    • It is great to have a big gain in one of your stocks.
    • The standard advice - to sell - is based on psychology.
    • Fundamental analysis can yield a different answer.
    • And there are bonus lessons for those who were not invested.
  • Using Your NCAA Bracket To Improve Your Investing
    Thu, Mar. 20 DIA, SPY, QQQ 8 Comments

    Summary

    • Sports often provide helpful investment analogies, including the NCAA bracket.
    • Filling out your bracket introduces a common misconception, 12 versus 5 upsets.
    • The probability error illustrates the (more important) blunder about margin debt.
    • There are many similar applications.
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Yellen Takes The Stage
    Sun, Mar. 16 SPY, QQQ, SH 54 Comments

    Summary

    • Last week saw mostly positive economic data but a negative market reaction.
    • This week will start with Ukraine, but switch to a focus on the Fed.
    • The range of expectations for the FOMC is wide, but a major change is unlikely.
    • Investors can benefit from a solid plan for the week.
  • Dancing With The Stars And Confirmation Bias
    Wed, Mar. 12 DIA, SPY, QQQ 34 Comments

    Summary

    • Some famous (infamous?) pundits abruptly reverse their reasoning if needed to maintain their market viewpoint.
    • A key example is contrasted with someone who dared to change, at the risk of audience.
    • The Fed debate is a lightning rod than can destroy or protect.
  • Missing Indicators And Confirmation Bias
    Mon, Mar. 10 28 Comments

    Summary

    • Popular authorities change indicators to suit their positions.
    • Unwitting investors consume this information, perhaps also falling victim to confirmation bias.
    • Advice on how to inoculate yourself.
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: What Is The Risk/Reward For Stocks?
    Sun, Mar. 9 DIA, SPY, QQQ 50 Comments

    Summary

    • Last week saw mostly positive data.
    • With a light calendar, expect to see plenty of debate about a possible market top.
    • Risk and reward are more balanced than most seem to think.
    • Chances of a large move in either direction seem modest.
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: More Clarity About Employment?
    Sun, Mar. 2 DIA, SPY, QQQ 21 Comments
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Does The Weakness In Housing Threaten The Economy And Stocks?
    Tue, Feb. 25 22 Comments