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Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For An Economic Spring Thaw?
- Last week featured little data and plenty of topics for worry.
- The most important economic news was encouraging.
- The heavy economic calendar this week offers potential for an economic spring thaw.
- Good stock ideas abound.
- Small market moves create over-reaction.
Weighing The Week Ahead: The Quest For New Worries
- There is plenty of market action - but within a trading range.
- Many recent worries have been addressed - especially Fed policy.
- With nothing major on tap until the employment report, expect pundits to lead the quest for new worries.
- Picking a newly featured case - volatility - investors should learn more about both history and opportunity.
Weighing The Week Ahead: Is Good Economic News Now Bad For Investors?
- Last week's economic data were mostly weak.
- It took only one report to get the Fed worries going!
- Next week is light on data and the FOMC meeting impends -- a Pundit Paradise.
- Watch out for bonds and utility stocks, but there are plenty of ideas.
- Traders and investors should plan differently for the week ahead.
Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Economic News Alter Fed Policy?
- Last week's housing data provided a mixed economic picture.
- The week ahead includes an avalanche of data - featuring the jobs report.
- Yellen's testimony leaves open the timing of possible rate hikes.
- The Fed decision provides a backdrop for interpreting this week's economic news.
Weighing The Week Ahead: Help For The Economy From Housing?
- Stocks rallied without much help from energy, mostly with positive news from Greece.
- The port labor issues seem to be resolved - a major positive.
- Plenty of housing data is on the schedule next week.
- Yellen testimony and GDP will also raise questions about sources of growth.
- Is the housing bottom (finally) in?
Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Bottoming Energy Stocks Support The Market Breakout?
- Last week's trading reflected a continuation of "risk on."
- Economic data were soft while geopolitical news was positive.
- The week ahead will feature talk about the new market highs and the supporting sectors.
- Will energy stocks stabilize and support the rally?
Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For 'Risk On'?
- Last week's economic data were positive - especially employment.
- Bonds, stocks, and commodities showed a change in tone.
- Earnings remained solid.
- Could there be a shift in market tone - time for "risk on"?
Weighing The Week Ahead: Will The Data Landslide Reveal Economic Weakness?
- Last week's data were mixed, not quite as bad as the market reaction.
- Weaker than expected GDP results and falling oil prices have heightened deflation concerns.
- The late Friday spike in oil prices was geopolitical, not fundamental. The short-covering rally was taken as more bad news for stocks.
- The week ahead includes a large number of data releases, earnings reports, speeches, and news from around the world. More volatility?
- The special focus will be potential confirmation for recent commodity weakness and bond strength.
Weighing The Week Ahead: A Focus On Europe?
- Last week's data were mixed, with too much "explanation" leaning on the ECB decision.
- The week ahead includes news about the Greek snap elections, more ECB analysis, and continuing earnings.
- The FOMC announcement may not add much information.
- Looking beyond the immediate time frame, there are some good stock ideas.
- It is time to plan ahead, with shopping list in hand.
Weighing The Week Ahead: The Message From Fourth Quarter Earnings
- Last week's trading focused on the message from bonds and commodities.
- Will corporate earnings reports support the sense of a weakening economy?
- Actual economic data are more positive than markets suggest.
- Implications for traders and investors may, once again, be quite different.
- Earnings expectations include a parlay of tests.
Weighing The Week Ahead: Is The Bond Market Sending A Message?
- Last week featured plenty of January Silliness.
- With a week to go before earnings, focus may be on the message from bonds.
- The calendar leads many to review plans and portfolios - I have suggested methods, sources, stocks and sectors.
- Not least of which - you do not need to be a genius to take what the market is giving.
Jeff Miller Positions For 2015: Still Plenty Of Life In The 'Aging Bull'
- The main economic theme is that there is no expiration date on the business cycle.
- None of the best recession forecasting methods are flashing a warning for 2015.
- Markets hate uncertainty, but that is the story on the interest rate effect.
- Investors would do well to ignore the popular press and do some independent thinking.
Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For The 'January Effect'?
- Returning pundits will focus on seasonal factors next week.
- At least until employment Friday!
- Economic news has been mildly negative.
- Plenty of investment themes for those wanting to reposition holdings.
- Beware excessive focus on the recent past.
2014 In Review: Hot Or Not?
- 2014 in Review: Hot or Not?
- "Hot" items offer an opportunity to follow big trends in 2015.
- "Not" items speak for themselves - steer clear.
2014 In Review: Best Of The Silver Bullet Awards
- 2014 in Review: Best of the Silver Bullet Awards.
- Causation/Correlation fallacies lead to mass confusion in 2014.
- The blogosphere's unsung heroes earn their due recognition.
Weighing The Week Ahead: Pundit Forecasts For 2015
- Last week's volatility combined the expected themes of oil prices and the Fed.
- Most of the news was good, as was the market reaction.
- The trading theme of oil prices and stocks has broken down.
- There are many interesting investment ideas.
- It is time for a quiet week with an early focus on 2015 forecasts.
Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Crashing Energy Prices Change The Fed's Course?
- Last week's economic news - especial retail sales - was good.
- Last week's stock market was really bad!
- It is all about oil and the implications of crashing prices.
- This week features more analysis of energy combined with the Fed meeting.
- There are many investment implications - what does the market offer?
Crucial Facts About Energy Stocks
- Oil prices and energy stocks are in freefall.
- There are plenty of pundits without any real knowledge.
- This creates an opportunity for investors who can pick the right energy subsectors.
Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For A Santa Claus Rally?
- Economic news continues to be strong, outpacing stock gains.
- Oil prices remain a wild card - a warning or an opportunity?
- A light calendar of scheduled economic data, leaving time for pundit prognostications.
- Expect plenty of talk about a Santa Claus rally, despite mixed prospects.
Keeping Investors Scared Witless
- The negativity barrage continues.
- Short term warnings: Uncritical publicity for Omens and charts.
- Long term warnings: No account for inflation.
- Bond pundits -- You cannot take chips off if you never made a bet!
- Some fairness and reality about those 2009 predictions -- Dow 20K?
Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For Digestion?
- Plenty of data last week merely re-emphasized the message of modest growth - small misses from expectations.
- The OPEC news was not really a surprise, but still had a big effect.
- Next week will include digestion of the OPEC news, the Fed Beige Book, and plenty of data about jobs.
- The return of the "A Teams" will mean better analysis of the energy news, with some winners and losers in prospect.
- I like refiners and integrated oil companies.
Weighing The Week Ahead: Are Investors Too Complacent?
- Last week's data were mostly good, especially for the U.S.
- With fresh concerns in short supply and volatility low, some have turned to worrying about complacency.
- Quiet markets can be the result of intense disputes among participants, with careful consideration by all.
- The holiday-shortened week has plenty of data, the OPEC meeting, and Black Friday.
- The combination of news and low-volume trading may provide opportunities for both investors and traders.
Weighing The Week Ahead: Time To Buy Commodities?
- Last week's news was mostly positive, with plenty of extreme commentary in all directions.
- This week features inflation data, housing, and the Fed.
- With many looking for beaten-down stocks and sectors, commodities will be featured in the market debate.
- The risk/reward for energy stocks has become more attractive.
- Technical trading indicators have become more positive.
Weighing The Week Ahead: Too Late To Join The Stock Rally?
- News was generally good and markets made new highs.
- Many year-end targets are close while others are chasing performance.
- It is a thin week for hard news, but featuring plenty of Fedspeak.
- Dueling pundits will be asking whether it is too late to join the rally.
Weighing The Week Ahead: What Does The End Of QE Mean To The Individual Investor?
- Economic and market news have both turned positive.
- It is a new era for data interpretation - no longer parsed through the impact on QE.
- Those who have a QE fixation need a new interpretative approach; the final act of tapering made little difference.
- Recession odds remain low.
- Plenty of stock ideas are consistent with the current business cycle.
Weighing The Week Ahead: Is The Stock Market Correction Over?
- A wild week for stocks had pundits shifting from doom to bottom-calling!
- Economic news was solid, except for retail sales.
- Headline risk continues to dominate news cycles -- difficult to quantify.
- Earnings reports were good on the past but weak on guidance.
- The short-term question for traders remains the chance of a bottom -- different for investors.
Understanding Value - With Apologies To Graham And Buffett
- Sometimes a little humor is the best message.
- Apologies to Mr. Graham and Mr. Buffett for my take on Mr. Market.
- Understanding value can help in avoiding market timing traps.
- A few investment themes to consider, especially travel, leisure, and energy.
Weighing The Week Ahead: Can Earnings Season Reverse The Stock Market Decline?
- Last week was mostly about speeches - little real news.
- There is increasing concern about global economic issues.
- Corporate earnings will provide a reality check.
- Traders are playing the trend. Investors might choose a different path.
- Fundamental market factors suggest that declines will be limited.
Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Global Weakness Drag Down The U.S. Economy?
- Last week's data were positive, despite the market weakness.
- The week ahead features low signal to noise -- little data and plenty of speeches!
- Global economic issues will be the focus, and the general tone is negative.
- Short-term trading indicators remain bearish, but investment prospects more positive.
- Employment was the best news of the week and Confidence the worst.
Weighing The Week Ahead: Investor Lessons From This Week's Data Deluge
- Market divergences were the highlight last week -- as expected and in contrast to news.
- The week ahead features a deluge of data -- a test of current market "messages".
- The outlook for traders has turned more pessimistic.
- Investors can enjoy a different time frame, with little risk from recession.
- Some beaten down sectors offer special opportunities.
Circular Reasoning About Commodities
- To beat the market, you must find inefficiencies - Seek Alpha!
- This requires more than noting a trend.
- Commodity prices often reflect false signals - as in 2011.
- Current prices reflect dollar strength, not economic weakness.
- Energy and materials stocks provide a good way of playing this theme.
Weighing The Week Ahead: Should Stock Investors Fear Current 'Divergences'?
- The FOMC news was a non-event for most markets, but the dollar rallied.
- In an otherwise quiet time, many are noting "divergences" in small caps, commodities, gold and even Bitcoin.
- The economic news has been mostly positive, with a drag from housing.
- A key decision for stock investors? How much to worry about short-term effects on the dollar.