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Weighing The Week Ahead: Will The Fed Change Course?
- Last week's market focus highlighted stocks -- mostly Apple news.
- The balance of economic news was good, while international news was negative.
- Interest rate increases and dollar strength have been weighing on stocks.
- The Fed is likely to change the "extended time" language.
- Market reaction may represent a challenge for traders and an opportunity for investors.
Weighing The Week Ahead: Finding Stocks For The 2014 Homestretch
- Last week featured strong economic data - except for the employment report.
- The week ahead is light on economic news, but features big corporate stories.
- Managers, returning from vacation, may start thinking about stock picking.
- Which stocks rate to do well for the remainder of 2014?
- The economic cycle helps us find the most promising sectors and stocks.
Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Job Growth Sustain The Rally?
- Market participants return from vacation to a week filled with economic data.
- Employment data is more important than ever in the wake of the Jackson Hole Symposium.
- World events continue to raise concerns, but the market shows continuing strength.
- Economic news has been mixed -- consumption items weak, yet confidence strong.
Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For Central Bankers To Unwind?
- Last week's geopolitics theme played out in a data vacuum.
- This week's agenda has plenty of data with a Fed focus from Wednesday to Friday.
- The Jackson Hole symposium will provide a chance for personal unwinding, but not much change in central bank balance sheets.
- Last week's news flow was balanced. Some sources see opportunities for long-term investors.
- Our short-term trading indicator still leans slightly bearish.
The Misleading Story About George Soros's Filing
Sat, Aug. 16 • 77 Comments
- The George Soros filing was a major story - people like to follow the big names.
- Every media source played it as a huge bearish bet - they are all wrong.
- The required filings tell us nothing.
- The government needs to change the rules. Until then we should just ignore such "information."
Weighing The Week Ahead: The Market Risk From Current Crises
- Global headline risk from military crises has increased.
- Headlines and technical trading combine to create additional volatility.
- Economic news remains good in the US, but weaker in Europe.
- Separating the human and market effects is a challenge for investors.
- With little scheduled news, slow summer trading, and options expiration, big moves are possible.
Weighing The Week Ahead: Will The Fed Experiment End Badly?
- Economic news last week was mostly positive, but the stock market was certainly not!
- There is heightened Fed skepticism raising the question: Will it all end badly?
- The lack of fresh news on tap allows plenty of time for pundit speculation.
- Trading indicators remain in a neutral range; economic fundamentals remain sound.
- Investors should prepare for another two years of the Fed debate.
Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Earnings Growth Reignite The Stock Rally?
- Stocks have been resilient in the face of many challenges.
- Economic news has disappointed.
- Attention has turned to corporate earnings. Will the reports be enough?
- Opportunities remain for long-term investors.
- Geopolitical risks present special challenges for investors -- some advice.
Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For A Mid-Course Correction?
- Last week's economic data were encouraging.
- In a light week for fresh news, the focus will be on plans for the second half of 2014.
- There are several possible market viewpoints; what is the evidence for each?
- Stocks have responded to earnings and bonds to economic weakness.
- What to watch for in the next six months.
Weighing The Week Ahead: Economic Fireworks?
- Stunning decline in Q1 GDP has sharpened the economic debate.
- Last week saw a sharp contrast in economic news.
- Overall tone remains slightly bullish, with interesting ideas for long-term investors.
- Important economic data -- especially employment -- combine with a short trading week.
Weighing The Week Ahead: Is The Fed Behind The Curve?
- Markets were quietly positive, with attention focused on Fed policy.
- Next week's data may encourage more of the Fed focus: Is the Fed behind the curve?.
- Economic data were modestly positive.
- Trading and investment perspectives continue to show a positive edge.
- Iraq remains a wild card, and there will be plenty of FedSpeak next week.
Weighing The Week Ahead: What Does The Iraq Conflict Mean For Markets?
- The Iraq conflict dominated market news as last week ended, and will probably lead for the week ahead.
- Investors must -- as usual -- separate the important and interesting policy and political issues from the market implications.
- General economic conditions remain encouraging, in spite of slightly disappointing news last week.
- The week will also feature the latest installment of Fed Chair Yellen and market communication.
Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For A Market Breakout?
- Last week reflected a quiet recognition of improved conditions.
- Volatility and volume remain low -- too quiet?
- Most expect a break, but opinion is divided about the direction.
- Short-term indicators have improved.
- My regular collection of current advice for investors includes some new themes.
Advice For Young Investors
- The investment industry neglects young people.
- It is a time of opportunity, but also potentially confusing.
- There is nothing wrong with a "fast decision" to move on -- even if it seems like failure.
- There are many great resources to get started -- Parents and Grandparents could help.
- Learn to be a citizen, but keep your investing separate.
Weighing The Week Ahead: More Clarity From The Market Message?
- The markets for stocks, bonds, and options suggest varying conclusions.
- This week's news and data may provide clarity.
- Trading and investing time frames continue to offer different opportunities.
- If one accepts the market message as gospel, why try to gain an edge?
Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Sluggish Housing Growth Derail The Economy?
- Housing continues to be an important economic story; reports mostly sluggish.
- Last week had little data, but a mildly positive tone.
- Sideways market conditions continue.
- A neutral market means different things for traders and investors - ideas for each group.
The Sound Of Silence
- Most pundits change indicators to suit their fancy.
- Several recent worries have abated.
- Investors could profit by thinking about how the "wall of worry" leads them astray.
Weighing The Week Ahead: What Does The Bond Rally Mean For Stocks?
- Current market attention? The surprise rally in bonds. "Divergences" still an issue.
- Economic news mixed, with a positive lean.
- A light week for fresh data -- the pundits' paradise.
- Intermediate outlook still positive.
- Plenty of ideas and perspective for long-term investors.
What Can We Learn From The 'Tuesday Effect?'
- The "Tuesday Effect" has been powerful in 2014 -- until last week.
- There are good reasons for skepticism.
- The lesson can be applied to other alleged seasonal patterns.
Weighing The Week Ahead: Time To Worry About 'Divergences'?
- What is the message of weakness in part of the stock market?.
- Last week's economic news was mostly positive.
- Recession risk remains very low.
- Fundamental analysis shows stocks to be attractive -- sector shifts normal.
Weighing The Week Ahead: Is The Ukraine Crisis Important For Financial Markets?
- Ukraine tensions are high, and there is little fresh data this week.
- Economic data have been trending positively.
- Short-term indicators have improved.
- Actual Ukraine effects are small - perhaps an opportunity to shop the dips.
Weighing The Week Ahead: Time To 'Sell In May'?
- Seasonal slogan time is here.
- Five encouraging economic trends suggest (finally) escape velocity.
- Most investors remain sidelined -- except the affluent.
- There are some solid investment ideas that fit the climate.
- Recession risk remains low.
Weighing The Week Ahead: Springtime Optimism?
- Last week saw reduced volatility.
- There is a possible seasonal inflection point - looking beyond weather effects.
- Trading outlook is neutral.
- Investors have opportunities in several sectors.
- For economic insight, you might look to economists.
Weighing The Week Ahead: A Volatility Cocktail
- Potential for Exceptionally High Volatility-- lots of events in a short week with options expiration.
- Earnings could move things either way, so planning is required.
- Traders might start by being neutral, prepared for agile moves.
- Investors could be tested. They all know the theory of fading the market on interim moves, but few can execute.
- Fundamental evidence suggests that any decline will not be a crash.
Strategy In The Face Of Volatility
- Market volatility can be an opportunity.
- If you have planned, you are not surprised.
- The early 2014 Game plan has changed -- updates listed.
- Don't be late for dinner!
Face-Off On Greece: An Interim Update
Wed, Apr. 9 • 35 Comments
- Greece was the key worry two years ago -- John Mauldin highlighted concerns.
- Some of us felt that government policy would be effective in response.
- The Greek situation is now much better.
- It is time for an interim accounting and an update from Mr. Mauldin.
Weighing The Week Ahead: Fluff Or Fundamentals?
- Despite plenty of promising economic data, the financial media have emphasized "soft" themes.
- The coming week -- the last before earnings season -- is light on data.
- The result might be uncertainty for traders and opportunity for investors.
- And some "final thoughts" about stress tests and Flash Boys.
How To Handle A Big Gain
Wed, Apr. 2 • 33 Comments
- It is great to have a big gain in one of your stocks.
- The standard advice - to sell - is based on psychology.
- Fundamental analysis can yield a different answer.
- And there are bonus lessons for those who were not invested.
Using Your NCAA Bracket To Improve Your Investing
- Sports often provide helpful investment analogies, including the NCAA bracket.
- Filling out your bracket introduces a common misconception, 12 versus 5 upsets.
- The probability error illustrates the (more important) blunder about margin debt.
- There are many similar applications.
Weighing The Week Ahead: Yellen Takes The Stage
- Last week saw mostly positive economic data but a negative market reaction.
- This week will start with Ukraine, but switch to a focus on the Fed.
- The range of expectations for the FOMC is wide, but a major change is unlikely.
- Investors can benefit from a solid plan for the week.
Dancing With The Stars And Confirmation Bias
- Some famous (infamous?) pundits abruptly reverse their reasoning if needed to maintain their market viewpoint.
- A key example is contrasted with someone who dared to change, at the risk of audience.
- The Fed debate is a lightning rod than can destroy or protect.
Missing Indicators And Confirmation Bias
Mon, Mar. 10 • 28 Comments
- Popular authorities change indicators to suit their positions.
- Unwitting investors consume this information, perhaps also falling victim to confirmation bias.
- Advice on how to inoculate yourself.