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Jeff Miller  

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  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Economic News Alter Fed Policy? [View article]
    GaltMachine -- The different inflation measures each have a purpose. The GDP deflator is the one linked to growth. I think that Greenspan popularized the use of the PCE measure for the Fed. If memory serves he felt that it did not unduly emphasize housing and also that other matters over-stated inflation. Yes, I know that will seem crazy to many....

    Jeff
    Mar 1, 2015. 03:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Economic News Alter Fed Policy? [View article]
    Oops!

    Do you need a proofreading job? You have to work at midnight central time though :)

    I'll try to do better, and thanks for noting.

    Jeff
    Mar 1, 2015. 03:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Help For The Economy From Housing? [View article]
    David -- I agree with "nothing" new in the testimony. I wonder why you think the Fed needs tools right now. There is plenty of room for M2 expansion if banks decide to lend.

    Some seem to think that the economy fails without constant stimulus. Actually, the labor market slack and available capital are enough to encourage natural growth.

    Just a thought...

    Jeff
    Feb 25, 2015. 03:02 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Help For The Economy From Housing? [View article]
    David -- The characterization of sell side firms as stock pushers is a popular statement, but not really accurate. Morgan Stanley was very bearish a couple of years ago. Many firms have only slight stock market increases in the forecasts.

    My sense is that small cap managers like small caps, emerging market managers like emerging markets, and the bond guys like bonds. They provide interesting information, but careful study is needed.

    Market strategists are a different matter.

    I don't think there is any chance of more QE.

    Jeff
    Feb 24, 2015. 04:19 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Help For The Economy From Housing? [View article]
    michaelliou - Thanks for pointing out my error on Jonathan Golub. I read his work for many years when we was at UBS and I know that he moved on more than a year ago. While I no longer get his weekly commentary, I watch for him both on TV and in print.

    Jeff
    Feb 22, 2015. 07:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Help For The Economy From Housing? [View article]
    tuliptown -- You may well be right about the ECRI. A problem is that many media sources highlight their message. There are always new readers who do not know the full story.

    Maybe I can find a better approach.

    Thanks!

    Jeff
    Feb 22, 2015. 06:50 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Help For The Economy From Housing? [View article]
    jakurtz -- I use cyclicals to mean something broader than consumer discretionary, and there is some overlap with all of the more specific groups. As to energy, we have already seen a good rebound in stocks that were excessively linked to oil prices (refiners and some integrated names). In the short term the jury is out on others, but looking out a year or more there are some good ideas.

    As to housing ..... we'll know more in a week!

    Thanks for joining in.

    Jeff
    Feb 22, 2015. 06:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Bottoming Energy Stocks Support The Market Breakout? [View article]
    D-inv -- The strike seems to be helping some refineries at the expense of others. Your point is a good one.

    Jeff
    Feb 15, 2015. 07:44 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Bottoming Energy Stocks Support The Market Breakout? [View article]
    jakurtz -- You have the right idea. Many seem to believe that energy stocks are an essential part of continued market strength. A lot of the daily trading supports this idea, so it is an interesting short-term question.

    You are also correct in noting that many stocks have rallied without energy, and I agree that this could continue. Long-term investors frequently find opportunities when there is a short-term trading focus.

    Thanks for your question, and I hope this helps.

    Jeff
    Feb 15, 2015. 07:42 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Bottoming Energy Stocks Support The Market Breakout? [View article]
    rogerenroute -- I don't really disagree. As you can see, I have misgivings on both fronts.

    Thanks for joining in, and for the kind words.

    Jeff
    Feb 15, 2015. 07:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Bottoming Energy Stocks Support The Market Breakout? [View article]
    Nylitigator -- (and others making similar comments)

    Thanks! I try to set a high standard each week. I am delighted that many find it helpful. It encourages me to keep at it.

    Jeff
    Feb 15, 2015. 07:31 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Bottoming Energy Stocks Support The Market Breakout? [View article]
    Mitchad2

    Baltic Dry Freight is another example of an indicator that seemed to lose its value.

    Thanks for your helpful comments!

    Jeff
    Feb 15, 2015. 07:29 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For 'Risk On'? [View article]
    faustius -- Yes, I like to follow the forward earnings estimates and think they add value. I have cited FactSet and/or Brian Gilmartin on this topic almost every week, as well as Adam Parker a couple of weeks ago.

    When looking at the week ahead, as I noted in the recent history, I am often looking for potential inflection points as well as subjects for current debate. Whether we should wait for analyst estimates to lead us is one factor to consider.

    Estimates are down from about $127 to $122 on the S&P 500 over the last two months.

    Good points to watch!

    Jeff
    Feb 9, 2015. 06:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For 'Risk On'? [View article]
    Thanks to all of those who offered encouraging words. While I do not reply individually to each such comment, I definitely read them, as well as the nice emails. When I don't feel like writing on a Saturday, I try to keep that in mind.

    I also enjoy the excellent comments and interplay we have among readers.

    Thanks to all!

    Jeff
    Feb 8, 2015. 08:29 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For 'Risk On'? [View article]
    Angel -- The European interest rates are important. If you saw my annual preview, you know that I see an arb between those rates and ours, facilitated by a strong dollar.

    That makes sense for the bund, but not so much for Spain!

    Great point -- always nice to hear from you, and I wish I could add more.

    Jeff
    Feb 8, 2015. 08:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
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