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Jeff Miller

 
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  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For Central Bankers To Unwind? [View article]
    Lloyd and others ---

    This is an elusive problem, meant to illustrate how difficult it is to identify and seek evidence that will disconfirm.

    I agree that the wording could be a little better, and was stated more effectively in the test from which it was drawn. Having said that, I think if you get in the spirit of the problem you will get the answer.

    It is NOT an intelligence test. Everyone reading this is smart.

    I appreciate the patience of those playing along and I hope the exercise was worth it.

    Thanks,

    Jeff
    Aug 19 12:36 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For Central Bankers To Unwind? [View article]
    Vol1985 -- Dwaine has been a little slow with updates, but he sent me something yesterday. The readings are about the same and the chart will reflect that at next posting.

    Jeff
    Aug 19 12:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Misleading Story About George Soros's Filing [View article]
    18214212 -- First off, I am not offended by discussion. Feel free to bring up any points you think others should know.

    Interestingly, I knew about the two recent links you cite and also eight or ten others with similar headlines. I am absolutely delighted that you were unmoved by these stories. Perhaps that is true for many of my readers.

    And I do not want to deal with minutiae ---so let me condense it.

    The filings do not even tell us whether his option position is net short or net long. The reason is that the report does not include the options that he has sold, only those he is long. If he sold a put spread, for example, He might be short a put that is 10% out of the money and long one (or more) that are 15% out of the money. He profits if the market does not trade down by 10% before expiration. It is a long position -- not short -- and it would be consistent with the filing.

    Similarly, we cannot make any inferences about the size of his position compared to the last filing. The "size" of an option position relates to the delta of the option, not the notional value of the underlying.

    It might be interesting to do a follow-up post with several examples of positions that fit the filing and have totally different costs and market effects. For now, I am working on my SF presentation:)

    Your comments are constructive and helpful.

    Thanks,

    Jeff
    Aug 17 04:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For Central Bankers To Unwind? [View article]
    Jonathan the Galt --

    The Seawright discussion is there for all to read, and I am glad that some have. There is an irony. If Seawright disagrees with the "gotcha" guy in the comments, he is alleged to be guilty of confirmation bias. If he does not disagree, the dubious criticism stands unanswered.

    In that spirit --

    I disagree with your interpretation of the discussion at Seawright's page. It is my right and even obligation to disagree with someone who says that I am propagating errors, when I believe that to be incorrect. At Seawright's site, the commenter "Neal" made an obvious error in his first statement and then went hunting for some way to rescue his position.

    The difficulty with putting up a problem that 90% of the people will get wrong is that the smart people who made incorrect answers will have bruised egos. That is what happened to Seawright.

    It is fair to ask what other answer could possibly provide dis-confirminging evidence. I thought the puzzle was educational, and perhaps including it served that purpose.

    I have spent too many hours trying to explain the Monte Hall problem http://bit.ly/L6vYEn to some very smart people to go down that path again. I am not going to write further about the accuracy of the conclusion. Believe what you wish :)

    The Monte Hall objectors also fell back on nitpicking claims about the stated rules. At least you could settle it experimentally and profitably with a deck of cards and a stack of bills!

    One final thought about "copying," as you put it. In the sources I cite I try to feature enough information -- chart, quote, or summary -- so that the reader can get the flavor and investigate further if desired. I am very careful about giving credit. I think that most readers understand and appreciate this approach.

    I hope that others join you in reading the entire article.

    Jeff
    Aug 17 04:39 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Misleading Story About George Soros's Filing [View article]
    Great answer. I hope people are reading your comments.

    Jeff
    Aug 17 12:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For Central Bankers To Unwind? [View article]
    CautiousInvestor -- Thanks for contributing these points. I always wonder which non-US economic news should be included. I have been adding more, but there is a trap. There are many indicators and many countries. You can always find something to prove a point, and many do.

    I hope that I have hit often enough on the economic weakness in Europe and Japan, in addition to the China story. I am not going to include Flash PMI's from everywhere, for example.

    I think it was last week when I said that European economic weakness was the real reason for the emphasis on Russia/Ukraine and reciprocal sanctions.

    So I agree with you, and thanks. I always welcome important points that people think should be considered.

    Jeff
    Aug 17 12:48 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For Central Bankers To Unwind? [View article]
    Mitchad2-

    http://reut.rs/1eoAMDO

    That's a few months old, but the policy gets a fair amount of mention:

    http://bit.ly/1pUFu0v

    Japan seems to be following the US path after a later start. What do you think?

    Jeff
    Aug 17 12:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For Central Bankers To Unwind? [View article]
    Swami -- Actually, I was trying to say that the Fed is not going to signal any imminent rate increase -- quite the opposite.

    Like nearly everyone else I expect long-term rates to increase, but it will take a stronger economy and a whiff of inflation to get there.

    Current indicators? Employment and ISM numbers have been strong, along with Conference Board consumer confidence. All of the inflation gauges have moved up a little, although still a long ways from the Fed target.

    I do not think that QE has much to do with the long-term rates.

    I had this as the major theme a couple of months ago, and I don't think much has changed.

    Maybe this clarifies a little, and thanks for reading.

    Jeff
    Aug 17 12:40 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Misleading Story About George Soros's Filing [View article]
    18214212 -- I would love to have a link to the story you heard or saw. I have not seen a single accurate story.

    Meanwhile, if you do a search on Soros Puts and restrict to the last couple of days you will see a long list of scary headlines -- "huge bet that stocks will fall" "largest position" "loads up on bearish bet."

    If any of them explained that you cannot multiply the number of puts by the value of the S&P to get a "value" then I wouldn't have bothered to take time Friday night to write this.

    To summarize, the misleading part is that we have no idea about the size of this position or even whether it is an overall short position. It might be part of a spread, since the short contracts are not reported. Maybe I did not explain it very well :)

    Send a link if you can --- and thanks for reading and commenting.

    Jeff
    Aug 16 07:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Misleading Story About George Soros's Filing [View article]
    Thanks, Brad!
    Aug 16 07:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Misleading Story About George Soros's Filing [View article]
    After responding, I ran across this post (HT Abnormal Returns):

    http://aol.it/1mUFQ3u

    It is more comprehensive than my response.

    Jeff
    Aug 16 12:45 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Misleading Story About George Soros's Filing [View article]
    Hmpffff -- Mr. Buffett has frequently written about the difficulty in finding large enough investments to be meaningful and also the advantage of having cash when he gets an opportunity. In a recent interview he said something about "hunting for elephants."

    He has never described the cash level as related to market timing.

    As with other "legendary" investors, I find it interesting to learn about some stocks they are buying. Buffett also remarks that average investors can do better than he can, because they have a wider selection.

    I am finding plenty of attractive choices, but many of them would not work for a Buffett investment.

    Interesting question.

    Jeff
    Aug 16 12:22 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Misleading Story About George Soros's Filing [View article]
    beechiegirl1953 -- Sorry! I hate it when I do that. I have some proofreading help, but it is a "next day" proposition.

    As a former academic, I started out trying to be perfect in each piece. I soon learned that I could not generate timely content that way, especially when I am writing at night at the end of a long trading day.

    So I do my best, and live with some errors, which I nevertheless hate!

    Good catch.

    Jeff
    Aug 16 12:16 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Misleading Story About George Soros's Filing [View article]
    Bullion Baron -- Some of the problems were referenced in the original, but if the author (using the same pseudonym as you are here) really understood the issues, why write the piece at all?

    The comparisons of size with other positions, for example, incorrectly uses notional value, See the comments below from @Howl of the Wolf who describes how professional traders analyze their positions.

    Jeff
    Aug 16 12:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: The Market Risk From Current Crises [View article]
    interesting ideas - thanks.

    Jeff
    Aug 11 12:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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