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Jeff Miller

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  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Springtime Optimism? [View article]
    JYucca -- yes indeed :)

    Jeff
    Apr 21 09:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Springtime Optimism? [View article]
    Thanks for your help, Rob.

    The differing results cited often seem inconsistent, and this is helpful.

    Jeff
    Apr 21 04:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Springtime Optimism? [View article]
    Dancing Diva -- There is definitely a difference between the S&P reports and others. My impression is that S&P came along after First Call (which became Thomson/Reuters). They came up with a completely different definition of "core earnings" and they also provided free access to historical data -- at least for as long as they had it.

    FactSet is (I think) newer, but with some of the T/R experts.

    My own very long data set is based upon the First Call and then T/R method. At one point, that was pretty much universal. Then they started charging for it and the S&P data were free.

    Maybe someone will take a deeper look and/or I can get Brian interested.

    Anyway, I think that the S&P method does yield a lower value by including more than the standard operating earnings. As to which approach is more popular, I don't know.

    Interesting question...

    Jeff
    Apr 20 08:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Springtime Optimism? [View article]
    Mark -- I certainly believe in hand washing. I also wonder about playing cards. Lots of people get sick at bridge tournaments. It is important to remember to keep your hands away from your face and mouth.

    Jeff
    Apr 20 08:01 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Springtime Optimism? [View article]
    I am glad that people enjoyed today's post and the ensuing discussion.

    Concerning the dirty money, I am reading the comments with great interest. I did not really expect it to be controversial, so I thought that I had a good example for my illustration of perceptions governing decisions. I would have guessed that the Portland story would have generated more comment!

    I will try to be on schedule next week, but I am attending my son's honors thesis presentation, so we shall see.

    Best of luck to all in the week ahead:)

    Jeff
    Apr 20 07:59 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Springtime Optimism? [View article]

    ray--Just trading accounts are out of equity ETFs, continuing Felix's caution over the last few weeks. investment accounts have more than normal cash, and I am shopping carefully.
    Jeff
    Apr 20 07:56 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: A Volatility Cocktail [View article]
    Currant85 -- The fund was "acquired" by another Morgan Stanley fund. You should have gotten a proxy statement. You can get the details here: http://bit.ly/RnaI43

    Also, your brokerage statement should show the number of shares you received in the acquiring fund and the symbol to check for quotes.

    Jeff
    Apr 15 07:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: A Volatility Cocktail [View article]
    Codes -- A few years ago most readers thought that i was a Bush defender! I have revealed (admitted?) that I have voted for past Governors of my state from both parties who later went to prison:)

    I have also expressed support for compromise policies rather than the fringe political elements of any stripe. If you read my posts, you know that I cite sources from all political sources.

    I naturally have personal preferences, as do you. I just don't let it color my investing. On the health care issue, for example, I decided that there were themes that would gain from ObamaCare whether you liked it or not --- insurers and device makers. That proved to be profitable. Those with a doctrinaire attitude about the economy always attack the Administration -- no matter who is in power. It is a losing attitude.

    Jeff
    Apr 14 03:58 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: A Volatility Cocktail [View article]
    James -- I classified the China news using the market reaction -- the standard interpretation. I agree that the data are especially difficult to interpret right now.

    Even things like consumption of raw materials can be misleading because of varying inventory builds.

    I have also read the "onshoring" articles and stories about Europe. Maybe another reader has seen some data.

    Thanks for your contribution.

    Jeff
    Apr 13 04:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: A Volatility Cocktail [View article]
    Kunst -- Drat it! I hate errors, although you might have guessed it was typing rather than diction.

    It is pretty hard to get good proofreading help at midnight on Saturday! I decided long ago that if I insisted on perfection, I would never get anything done.

    But you are right. I like to maintain a high standard of writing as well as content.

    Sorry --

    Jeff
    Apr 13 04:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: A Volatility Cocktail [View article]
    Byloe Enhold -- I like to start with the right level of risk rather than the amount of cash. Once you have a stock allocation, it is a target for that part of the portfolio. For that segment I do try to stay fully invested, unless we have one of the warnings I described.

    Sometimes this means that you can have significant cash for a stretch of time while you are finding good entry points in new stocks and sectors.

    For many people the non-stock allocation should be very conservative. Everyone is a little different. Your approach is fine for those with a long time horizon --- many if not most investors.

    Jeff
    Apr 13 04:15 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: A Volatility Cocktail [View article]
    Cautious Investor - -Thanks for joining in with a typically interesting comment. It is always hard to know what is "baked in" the current prices. Many skeptics do expect mean reversion, so they will be surprised even with consistent moderate growth.

    I expect an improving economy to lead to more confidence in future earnings, as well as better growth.

    Jeff
    Apr 13 04:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: A Volatility Cocktail [View article]
    Dancing Diva -- I agree about median income versus aggregates or averages. There are some other distortions as well. Survey data does have some added value.

    The data on health insurance does not clarify the source, of course, nor the cost. As to the immediate market effects, I have successfully invested in some of the insurers over the last year, as well as pharma and devices. As you know, I like to focus on the likely effects and opportunities, not the political side.

    Thanks for your helpful observations.

    Jeff
    Apr 13 04:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: A Volatility Cocktail [View article]
    Bandit -- Thanks for joining in and for sharing your approach.

    Jeff
    Apr 13 03:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: A Volatility Cocktail [View article]
    cfetrader -- I am delighted to have comments reflecting many different perspectives. I confess that I have not found Elliot Wave Theory to be useful. My experience is that the interpretation of the waves is very subjective, so that you could not expect several different experts to arrive at the same conclusion.

    Prechter is the leading exponent, and he has a terrible score at CXO Advisory -- http://bit.ly/OZapub

    Is there someone with a documented real-time record that we might check out?

    Once again, thanks for joining in. You certainly have made a very precise forecast!

    Jeff
    Apr 13 03:58 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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