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Jeff Miller

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  • Weighing The Week Ahead: A Volatility Cocktail [View article]
    Currant85 -- The fund was "acquired" by another Morgan Stanley fund. You should have gotten a proxy statement. You can get the details here: http://bit.ly/RnaI43

    Also, your brokerage statement should show the number of shares you received in the acquiring fund and the symbol to check for quotes.

    Jeff
    Apr 15 07:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: A Volatility Cocktail [View article]
    Codes -- A few years ago most readers thought that i was a Bush defender! I have revealed (admitted?) that I have voted for past Governors of my state from both parties who later went to prison:)

    I have also expressed support for compromise policies rather than the fringe political elements of any stripe. If you read my posts, you know that I cite sources from all political sources.

    I naturally have personal preferences, as do you. I just don't let it color my investing. On the health care issue, for example, I decided that there were themes that would gain from ObamaCare whether you liked it or not --- insurers and device makers. That proved to be profitable. Those with a doctrinaire attitude about the economy always attack the Administration -- no matter who is in power. It is a losing attitude.

    Jeff
    Apr 14 03:58 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: A Volatility Cocktail [View article]
    James -- I classified the China news using the market reaction -- the standard interpretation. I agree that the data are especially difficult to interpret right now.

    Even things like consumption of raw materials can be misleading because of varying inventory builds.

    I have also read the "onshoring" articles and stories about Europe. Maybe another reader has seen some data.

    Thanks for your contribution.

    Jeff
    Apr 13 04:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: A Volatility Cocktail [View article]
    Kunst -- Drat it! I hate errors, although you might have guessed it was typing rather than diction.

    It is pretty hard to get good proofreading help at midnight on Saturday! I decided long ago that if I insisted on perfection, I would never get anything done.

    But you are right. I like to maintain a high standard of writing as well as content.

    Sorry --

    Jeff
    Apr 13 04:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: A Volatility Cocktail [View article]
    Byloe Enhold -- I like to start with the right level of risk rather than the amount of cash. Once you have a stock allocation, it is a target for that part of the portfolio. For that segment I do try to stay fully invested, unless we have one of the warnings I described.

    Sometimes this means that you can have significant cash for a stretch of time while you are finding good entry points in new stocks and sectors.

    For many people the non-stock allocation should be very conservative. Everyone is a little different. Your approach is fine for those with a long time horizon --- many if not most investors.

    Jeff
    Apr 13 04:15 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: A Volatility Cocktail [View article]
    Cautious Investor - -Thanks for joining in with a typically interesting comment. It is always hard to know what is "baked in" the current prices. Many skeptics do expect mean reversion, so they will be surprised even with consistent moderate growth.

    I expect an improving economy to lead to more confidence in future earnings, as well as better growth.

    Jeff
    Apr 13 04:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: A Volatility Cocktail [View article]
    Dancing Diva -- I agree about median income versus aggregates or averages. There are some other distortions as well. Survey data does have some added value.

    The data on health insurance does not clarify the source, of course, nor the cost. As to the immediate market effects, I have successfully invested in some of the insurers over the last year, as well as pharma and devices. As you know, I like to focus on the likely effects and opportunities, not the political side.

    Thanks for your helpful observations.

    Jeff
    Apr 13 04:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: A Volatility Cocktail [View article]
    Bandit -- Thanks for joining in and for sharing your approach.

    Jeff
    Apr 13 03:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: A Volatility Cocktail [View article]
    cfetrader -- I am delighted to have comments reflecting many different perspectives. I confess that I have not found Elliot Wave Theory to be useful. My experience is that the interpretation of the waves is very subjective, so that you could not expect several different experts to arrive at the same conclusion.

    Prechter is the leading exponent, and he has a terrible score at CXO Advisory -- http://bit.ly/OZapub

    Is there someone with a documented real-time record that we might check out?

    Once again, thanks for joining in. You certainly have made a very precise forecast!

    Jeff
    Apr 13 03:58 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: A Volatility Cocktail [View article]
    David -- I have worked pretty hard to separate the investing and trading time frames. Despite this, someone often reads carelessly and attempts to impute an inconsistency that was not in the original.

    The question of "market top" requires a time frame. I do not know if this is a short-term top, and neither do you. I am quite confident that it is not a long-term top. People like Warren Buffett would say the same thing, as did Peter Lynch years ago.

    The debate over corrections and market tops is not a sign of anything other than the media hunger for content!

    Jeff
    Apr 13 09:30 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: A Volatility Cocktail [View article]
    sethmcs - The timing of our sales was pretty close actually. The difference is that I was not setting out with the objective of raising cash. If you sell when your price targets are hit and shop carefully, it just happens naturally.

    I also bought SDRL as one of the energy picks.

    Good comment on high beta!

    Jeff
    Apr 13 09:25 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: A Volatility Cocktail [View article]
    steve_t - If you follow the regular reports in WTWA, you will soon see that there is often a divergence between underlying fundamentals and the market move for a particular week. It works both ways. I'm not sure why you thought it was predictable BEFORE this week :)

    Your trading conclusion is in line with Felix's, as I noted.

    Jeff
    Apr 13 09:22 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Strategy In The Face Of Volatility [View article]
    Atticvs Research -- This post is a pretty short piece, so I am surprised that you misunderstood it so badly.

    The game plan for 2014 has not changed at all. The specific names I mentioned were all profitable first quarter investments.

    I have frequently written that I update and monitor price targets all of the time. What do you do?

    Jeff
    Apr 11 10:17 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Face-Off On Greece: An Interim Update [View article]
    Hi Angel,

    I am really delighted to see your comment!

    I agree that this situation warrants continued monitoring (thus the "interim update" title).

    The basic thesis of policymakers fighting the worst with incremental actions has been pretty accurate.

    The evidence of the yields on various European bonds is very interesting. A few years ago, the high yields were widely cited as a evidence of a major problem. Today's market commentary from some pundits seems to suggest that bond buyers have all taken a "dumb pill."

    You and I both reject the facile changing of indicators. The market will tell us about the European progress.....

    Thanks again for joining in!

    Jeff
    Apr 10 09:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Face-Off On Greece: An Interim Update [View article]
    BudH -- I appreciate your policy distinction, but let's sharpen it up a bit. QE is not really an austerity/non-austerity policy, since it is a monetary program.

    Keynesians argue that the US deficit levels were inadequate to the challenges of a serious recession. From that perspective is was simply "less austerity" than Europe. This has been the focal point of the political debate.

    There have been substantial job losses in government -- not just at the Federal level, but also state and local. I am on my school districts Citizen's Financial Advisory Committee, and it is a relatively well-off district. Despite this, we have deferred maintenance, technology improvements, and increased class size. Our local policy and fire departments have downsized.

    Austerity has been a reality.

    QE has been a poor substitute....

    Thanks for joining in with a provocative comment!

    Jeff
    Apr 9 11:35 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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