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Jeff Miller  

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  • Weighing The Week Ahead: The Market Message For The Fed [View article]
    djsulli --- Thanks!

    For me it is an all-day Saturday ritual, but I had the Blackhawks on in the background last night!

    Jeff
    Jun 14, 2015. 12:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: The Market Message For The Fed [View article]
    cfetrader -- It is true that my reports have (accurately) reached a bullish conclusion for long-term investors. This reflects my own assessment of the evidence, so "bias" is not really the right term. When the indicators flash a caution signal (as happened in late 2011) I cut back on overall size. In conservative programs I also get cautious when there is event risk, like the "fiscal cliff" issues. We also trim and rebalance constantly, often winding up with 15 to 50% cash for a time as we shop for new positions.

    To summarize, I am open to any conclusion. It is important to be on the right side of big moves.

    As I'm sure everyone notes, Felix frequently changes positions and has even been short (via inverse ETFs) a few times in recent years.

    Whatever my stated views, I always welcome alternative suggestions -- especially when there is solid reasoning.

    Thanks for joining in with one of your typically interesting comments and also the link.

    Jeff
    Jun 14, 2015. 12:46 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: The Market Message For The Fed [View article]
    Robert -- On A-Shares, there is a rush to buy what formerly was inaccessible. Once that is done, it will calm down. I don't see how to judge this on the fundamentals, but Felix has been trading it a bit with some success.

    The chart on interest rates does provide context, showing that rate increases are fine if starting at a low point and staying there. This is consistent with my own research, showing a curvilinear relationship with P/E multiples. Basically, when rates are too low it reflects deflationary fears and skepticism about earnings. As rates increase, so do earnings and confidence --- at least up to a point.

    Doug has a regular chart showing several valuation indicators, of which the Market Cap to GDP (sometimes called the Buffett indicator) is one. The measures he chooses do not seem to me to reflect balance, including the low level of interest rates. Buffett and Munger both mentioned this recently. There are several other valuation measures that have been much more helpful -- but that is a long topic which arouses undue passion.

    Thanks for the comments.

    Jeff
    Jun 14, 2015. 12:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: The Market Message For The Fed [View article]
    crademan -- It is important to have a "safe" portion of the portfolio. A ladder of individual bonds can achieve this with very little risk of principal and a known (but low) return. I don't go out more than seven years and I use fifteen different investment grade bonds on five rungs. As rates go higher, the ladder gradually delivers a higher return. It takes a little work, but many brokers have a tool to help you.

    There are also some REITs that may hold up OK in a rising rate environment. If you also have an appropriate allocation to the right stocks, you can also have some protection.

    I am concerned that too many people are "all in" on bond mutual funds and what they see as conservative stocks.

    I hope this helps a bit. My "quest for yield" series covered some of this.

    Jeff
    Jun 14, 2015. 11:00 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: The Market Message For The Fed [View article]
    foxgary --- Exactly. That is what I meant.

    thanks,

    Jeff
    Jun 14, 2015. 10:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For A Consumer Rebound? [View article]
    B. Gibbs -- The boomers wanted to watch instead of reading. Now everyone is in a hurry. My own (formerly) resident Millennial watched both Comedy Central and Fox News, trying for different perspectives.

    The candidates have learned to use these venues. I am sure you are not surprised to learn that a former professor thinks that people should read!

    I really appreciate your informative contribution.

    Jeff
    Jun 9, 2015. 04:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For A Consumer Rebound? [View article]
    DylanW -- For most investors, watching investment news closely and frequently is not necessary and may even lead them astray! I say this even though I write weekly:)

    You want investments that are inexpensive and also suited to current trends. This usually means an unloved stock, where most people are not recognizing the trend.

    Good examples would be those affected by rising interest rates: Utilities - bad; banks -- good.

    Please keep reading. I am trying to include material for people just like you.

    Jeff
    Jun 9, 2015. 04:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Think About Risk [View article]
    Thanks to everyone for the encouragement and all of the great comments. The strong suggestions and viewpoints will make the results more valuable for everyone.

    Jeff
    Jun 3, 2015. 08:40 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Think About Risk [View article]
    crademan -- Thanks for the suggestion. I have some ideas along that line, but maybe I'll add more.

    Jeff
    Jun 3, 2015. 08:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Think About Risk [View article]
    DAG Investments --

    I am trying to do something that people will find helpful and useful, and I appreciate any links.

    Thanks,

    Jeff
    Jun 3, 2015. 11:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Think About Risk [View article]
    frogmaier -- So true. Overbetting your bankroll is a key mistake of those who are good at odds but not money management.

    Good advice, which I hope I clearly support in this series.

    Jeff
    Jun 3, 2015. 11:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Think About Risk [View article]
    Moon Kil Woong -- Rarely have I seen something that packs as many questionable conclusions into as few words as you have done with your comment!

    You do not know the market risk nor what people are assuming. You certainly do not know the motives of investment advisors -- especially those who succeed only by getting it right.

    And the "play with your money" statement is really loaded. What is your mission?

    Jeff
    Jun 3, 2015. 10:59 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Think About Risk [View article]
    hawkeyec ---Interesting examples.

    Thanks,

    Jeff
    Jun 3, 2015. 10:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Job Gains Signal An Economic Rebound? [View article]
    Reel Ken --

    Is this the research you mean? http://bit.ly/1I1My6P

    Thanks for the suggestion.

    Jeff
    Jun 1, 2015. 12:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Job Gains Signal An Economic Rebound? [View article]
    Rob -- Each week I make decisions about which events to mention. I always welcome comments about important items that someone thinks I missed.

    As to the "tin foil" idea -- heh heh -- you are obviously a new reader. I have frequently written about Chicago's situation in the past. Living in a Chicago suburb, I follow this very closely. There are many interesting aspects, but I am not sure the Moody's decision changes anything much. Do you think this is a national story?

    Thanks for joining in. If you read more, I believe and hope that you will see my attempt for balance in finding facts.

    Jeff
    Jun 1, 2015. 12:06 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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