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Jeff Miller

 
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  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For Digestion? [View article]
    Phil -- Yes, the trade balance aspect of GDP growth (including oil) bears watching. The stronger dollar is also a factor there, as I note frequently.

    Retail sales and personal consumption are definitely important indicators. The 7% decline report is from one source that does not have a good track record. That's why I track such a wide range of indicators.

    The health care and biotech theme is interesting and I agree that it will get better.

    Interesting ideas --thanks.

    Jeff
    Dec 1, 2014. 11:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For Digestion? [View article]
    rndog and Paul --

    rndog (perhaps knowing my past style) has it right. I sometimes cite trading in a stock or sector as the worst thing happening that week.

    As the overall theme shows, I do believe that lower energy prices have a positive side for many companies as well as consumers.

    Sorry to be unclear, and thanks for the comments!

    Jeff
    Nov 30, 2014. 08:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For Digestion? [View article]
    Many good comments today. I am glad that people found the items to be interesting, and I'm sorry that I could not engage as much as usual.

    Comments on the chart are much better than the uncritical reception it got from the overall community.

    Thanks to all.

    Jeff
    Nov 30, 2014. 08:56 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Are Investors Too Complacent? [View article]
    panamerican --

    You are correct! It is supply and demand, with movement "along the curve" until there is an intersection.

    It is my hope that people will understand that there is a "bid below the market price" and actually not far below.

    There is also an offer not much above the current price:)

    Jeff
    Nov 23, 2014. 09:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Are Investors Too Complacent? [View article]
    Cautious Investor --

    Everyone appreciates your commentary because it always adds value. I want to focus on the link you suggested, and ask a specific question. Partly because this was one of my themes for the week.

    Why do you think data from the 19th century is relevant to current market valuation?

    Thanks!

    Jeff
    Nov 23, 2014. 09:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time To Buy Commodities? [View article]
    shaxmatist1 -- I agree about the need to consider forward earnings. That is why I included the Brian Gilmartin link on earnings revisions in energy as a possible sign of bottoming.

    I also do not think that the models looking multiple years ahead are very helpful. Energy consumption in China and India, just to take two examples, is still very low.

    The need to look ahead is a good point, but it is difficult to do with accuracy.

    Jeff
    Nov 16, 2014. 02:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time To Buy Commodities? [View article]
    Bohan2012 -- There was plenty of buzz about oil price, as you note. It was so lacking in fresh data that CNBC spent a lot of time on the window washers. It would be interesting to have a quantitative measure some week on CNBC and Bloomberg appearances.

    I have written about PE-10 a few times. Shiller himself has not been using it for market timing. It has not been very helpful for a long time. Maybe it is time for an update on this topic.

    Thanks for joining in!

    Jeff
    Nov 16, 2014. 01:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Too Late To Join The Stock Rally? [View article]
    Doug -- The UK started to count various illegal activities as part of their GDP. Some other European countries already do. Since the spending allocations for the Eurozone relate to relative GDP, they all need to use the same rules.

    There is actually plenty of uncounted economic activity in the US, but I thought the idea of adding it was worth a chuckle.

    Jeff
    Nov 9, 2014. 07:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Too Late To Join The Stock Rally? [View article]
    Robert -- One of my consistent themes if that those who say they are "listening to the market" should just buy index funds. Where is your edge?

    I do not think that the market is efficient, so it is often giving false signals of various sorts. Your TLT position may have more to do with Europe and some arbitrage than the prospects for US stocks.

    Just a thought...

    Jeff
    Nov 9, 2014. 07:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Too Late To Join The Stock Rally? [View article]
    Robert -- Buffett's cash is sometimes not helpful. He needs a large opportunity to make a meaningful investment. I am finding plenty of interesting stocks at various risk levels.

    Mr. B joked recently that he had an elephant gun and was looking for some elephants.

    And I certainly would not argue with someone who was finding some attractive short opportunities as well.

    Jeff
    Nov 9, 2014. 07:09 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: What Does The End Of QE Mean To The Individual Investor? [View article]
    Rob -- Thanks for your comments, and for providing a nomination:)

    Jeff
    Nov 3, 2014. 12:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: What Does The End Of QE Mean To The Individual Investor? [View article]
    Rich W -- If memory serves, you have been on the bubble theme for quite awhile. I do not think that there is a large asset bubble, and you certainly don't provide any evidence.

    As to which inning --- successful investors look for a business cycle peak. I spend a lot of effort on that topic and share it with you every week. It is much stronger than saying things like "this rally has already lasted x months."

    It is a more gradual rally from a sharp decline. It will last longer -- perhaps a lot longer. I try to look about one year ahead, but my best guess is that it is longer than that.

    If you would prefer, you can take it that we have just started the second half of a football or basketball game!!

    Jeff
    Nov 2, 2014. 09:48 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: What Does The End Of QE Mean To The Individual Investor? [View article]
    Doug -- You are exactly right. Those producing these charts can do it in a few seconds, often copying from others, and then add some commentary that plays to existing biases. It pays off in page views.

    Trying to refute it takes a lot of time without any effective business model for providing truth.

    Jeff
    Nov 2, 2014. 09:43 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Is The Stock Market Correction Over? [View article]
    mychael -- I have gotten that smart-alec comment from four people before. None of them post any more on Seeking Alpha. I taught my last college class almost 30 years ago, which you would know if you read the profile before commenting.

    In my five different programs I often adjust to reflect new data. This happens most frequently with Felix, where I provide daily updates at Scutify.

    I usually ignore inaccurate and mean-spirited comments, but I'll respond one time to give you a chance to improve your fairness and accuracy.

    Jeff
    Nov 2, 2014. 09:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: What Does The End Of QE Mean To The Individual Investor? [View article]
    avolossov -- You have explained the reason for my scoring. The move was "market friendly." That standard helps keep the investment focus.

    As to the merits of the policy for the Japanese or the rest of the world, it is certainly open to debate-- starting with the points you raise.

    And thanks for the kind words:)

    Jeff
    Nov 2, 2014. 12:16 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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