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Jeff Miller

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  • Face-Off On Greece: An Interim Update [View article]
    pinatubo1945 --- Welcome to my group of commenters! I am always delighted when someone makes a first comment on one of my posts.

    I am also impressed by your credentials -- and from fine institutions.

    One of the things you learn in getting a PhD is how to evaluate expertise. I do this very carefully, and it makes me curious about your conclusion.

    Why do you think that you know more than the Central Bankers?

    There are plenty of studies on debt levels and various policy measures. Have you read them? Do you have the expertise to judge? If the economists at the Fed were to opine on psychology would you think they were right?

    Just wondering....

    Welcome, and I hope you keep reading and commenting. You might also be careful about making a big investment based upon your view of the deficit situation.....

    Jeff
    Apr 9 11:22 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Face-Off On Greece: An Interim Update [View article]
    Stockmajor -- We can both enjoy the fact that market rallies are based on well-understood, highly publicized worries:)

    Jeff
    Apr 9 04:09 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Face-Off On Greece: An Interim Update [View article]
    mjc99 -- Sometimes things that look fine on my site come out wrong when pasted in. I'll see if I can get a fix. The last sentence should be: That has been true for US investments, and especially true for Europe itself.

    Thanks,

    Jeff
    Apr 9 10:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Fluff Or Fundamentals? [View article]
    sethmcs -- Depending upon who I get as summer interns this year, maybe I'll get someone working on this project. I did something similar once, but it is out of date.

    I'll put it on the agenda :)

    Jeff
    Apr 7 04:23 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Fluff Or Fundamentals? [View article]
    Thanks lunco and Byloe --

    I always follow the markets, direct trading, and meet with some clients when on my trips. I always hope to have some time to write as well, but it sometimes does not work out.

    I am trying to figure out an "abbreviated format" where I can post something.

    Jeff
    Apr 6 03:14 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Fluff Or Fundamentals? [View article]
    macombet -- Congratulations. You are doing something that many cannot in your focus on fundamentals and avoiding emotion.

    The part I find interesting is that so many people misuse Shiller's information.

    Thanks for the kind words and for joining in.

    Jeff
    Apr 6 03:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Fluff Or Fundamentals? [View article]
    daro -- Have you read the book?

    I'm almost finished. The story is more complicated than it seems from the interviews.

    Through the wonders of TIVO I recorded the CNBC exchange. O'Brien, the BATS President, made at least one factual error which he had to correct later. I am trying to get beyond the impressions made and style, and focus on facts. I have written in the past about symbolic language. The term "rigged" is powerful.

    My review of the book will focus on the meaning for individual investors and traders. There are some valid points, but it is not a one-sided story.

    When I post the review, I hope you will join in with your own impressions from the book.

    Thanks,

    Jeff
    Apr 6 10:30 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Handle A Big Gain [View article]
    daro -- You definitely followed the rule. It is very relevant for investing. You can make excellent decisions and still lose in the short run. Most people do not understand that the short run is defined in number of decisions, not time.

    I need to figure out a way of communicating when I am on "vacation." I always expect to do some writing....

    Thanks,

    Jeff
    Apr 3 09:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Handle A Big Gain [View article]
    Thanks, Dave. The poker analogy is good since we are thinking about long-run outcomes of many such cases while understanding that you can be a loser in a single case. Classic David Sklansky.

    Jeff
    Apr 3 12:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Handle A Big Gain [View article]
    ron3637 -- Yes, you are correct. You need to estimate both the fair price and the odds. Nonetheless, the approach can give you an idea of the true value, perhaps warning you against just playing for the upside.

    Jeff
    Apr 3 12:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Handle A Big Gain [View article]
    DD -- Yes, I did choose the numbers in a way that showed there could still be an edge, but mostly I want to illustrate a method. The market often does not achieve accurate pricing for these situations.

    Another good example would be after a takeover has been announced, but the acquired company is not yet at the final price. Professional risk/arb traders take big positions while waiting for the gap to narrow. If the deal falls apart, there can be a big loss. It is almost always right for the individual investor to sell in these cases. Even anti-trust experts, for example, are sometimes wrong.

    The options approach can certainly work, but the prices are usually high, so you still need to calculate your edge.

    Jeff
    Apr 3 12:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Handle A Big Gain [View article]
    Mark -- I have been selling some positions that have reached targets and I plan another article (soon I hope) on more criteria for selling.

    Thanks,

    Jeff
    Apr 3 12:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Missing Indicators And Confirmation Bias [View article]
    Ted -- The problem is your choice of starting point. Last year began with worries about the fiscal cliff. The first 8% or so just relieved that worry. There was also a lot of other negativity built in. We have been dealing with a multi-year period of skepticism about the economy. If/when it returns to something like normal, the skeptics will STILL be way behind on earnings growth.

    So I think you are stating it backwards, but I appreciate your comments!

    Jeff
    Mar 23 02:03 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Yellen Takes The Stage [View article]
    GaltMachine -- UBS has a fine weekly report that includes a comment on your question, citing the same figures as you. They note that the revenue weakness is centered in financials (a sector that they like, as do I). There was a huge decline in sales at one company (PRU). Excluding that, the revenue growth would have been 3% -- still not great, but more in line with the economy.

    I don't like to "throw out" data, especially things like the worst sector, the ten worst days, etc. Sometimes there is a noteworthy reason for results.

    I hope this is helpful. It is all I have on the topic without a lot more research.

    Jeff
    Mar 17 11:18 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Yellen Takes The Stage [View article]
    avolossov -- Your source cites $4 trillion in reverse repos so far this year -- about the size of the Fed balance sheet. He seems confused about the difference between temporary and permanent operations, something that is well known to those who are Fed experts.

    Taken from the site which he cites :)

    "To implement monetary policy, short-term repurchase and reverse repurchase agreements are used to temporarily affect the size of the Federal Reserve System's portfolio and influence day-to-day trading in the federal funds market."

    More fundamentally, the Fed is completely transparent on these actions. If not, why would the list be published at all?

    There are some legitimate questions about the best Fed policy, but a secret reversal of QE is not one of them. The popularity of such articles is an example of the free market at work!

    I hope this is helpful.

    Jeff
    Mar 16 08:26 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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