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Jeff Miller  

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  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For An Economic Spring Thaw? [View article]
    jj1937 -- Chicago had its second coldest and third snowiest February in history.

    I have the plowing bills to prove it!!

    Jeff
    Mar 30, 2015. 02:49 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For An Economic Spring Thaw? [View article]
    Total Return -- I disagree, and I think the point is important. Overall market prices can move lower for many reasons -- not just net fund redemptions. My own sense is that most of them start with changes in trading positions, especially the algorithms. A modest change should not really affect a fund like Bill Miller's. He obvious felt the same. Do you think that pension fund managers are shifting from stocks to cash or bonds because of small moves?

    I try to educate new clients about what to expect from each of our programs. Three of them involve stocks with different levels of volatility. While none are "buy and hold" some volatility comes with the territory even with active management. I once had a client who asked me, after a three percent decline, "What is our exit strategy?" This investor will not last long in any investment program since what he really wants is to trade.

    Jeff
    Mar 29, 2015. 11:40 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Is Good Economic News Now Bad For Investors? [View article]
    Lakeaffect -- I like to include a range of opinions. The Hussman advice gets a lot of play, and I include many ideas for consideration. I originally had another "contra" piece to go with this one, and I dropped it.

    I guess I thought that I have written enough about Hussman and the Shiller PE.

    Sorry.

    Jeff
    Mar 8, 2015. 10:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Is Good Economic News Now Bad For Investors? [View article]
    Last Boomer -- Interesting observations on housing. We'll see about the correction.

    Jeff
    Mar 8, 2015. 12:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Is Good Economic News Now Bad For Investors? [View article]
    Mitchad2 -- First off, I congratulate you on your successful trading. I don't know why anyone would question it. Many people appreciate learning about what others are doing, so it is always welcome.

    I am surprised that you think I am "biased" against traders. My first job in the business was supporting the trading activity of market makers on the trading floor at the Chicago Options Exchange. When I became a consultant, all of my original clients were traders on one or another of the Chicago trading floors. Everyone on my team has significant trading experience.

    My sense is that financial media and brokerage commercials make it seem easier to succeed than it really is. A large percentage of those who try suffer significant losses. I have watched it happen.

    I am also concerned that many traders who take the wrong side create an inaccurate picture of the economic environment to explain their own mistakes. Since this discussion dominated financial media, it unduly influences the average investor.

    My point about HFT is that it has left less room for traders to exploit swings.

    And finally, I agree that winning contests is a lot different from real trading or investing. You take shots that you would otherwise not do -- sort of like winning a large NCAA pool. It can be fun if it does not interfere with your day job!

    Jeff
    Mar 8, 2015. 12:15 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Is Good Economic News Now Bad For Investors? [View article]
    Hi James,

    Thanks for joining in with your emphasis on the link to the "more detailed" report. As you note, the conclusions there are quite similar to my observations here. We also apparently share an emphasis on recession forecasting, which will not help with 10% corrections but should help to avoid the large ones.

    As to the current odds of a correction -- people have been predicting one for years and eventually it will happen. I cannot forecast the next six months, but my guess is that most people lose more by trying to time the market than they would in a correction!

    Thanks again for your kind and helpful reply.

    Jeff
    Mar 8, 2015. 12:00 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Economic News Alter Fed Policy? [View article]
    GaltMachine -- The different inflation measures each have a purpose. The GDP deflator is the one linked to growth. I think that Greenspan popularized the use of the PCE measure for the Fed. If memory serves he felt that it did not unduly emphasize housing and also that other matters over-stated inflation. Yes, I know that will seem crazy to many....

    Jeff
    Mar 1, 2015. 03:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Economic News Alter Fed Policy? [View article]
    Oops!

    Do you need a proofreading job? You have to work at midnight central time though :)

    I'll try to do better, and thanks for noting.

    Jeff
    Mar 1, 2015. 03:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Help For The Economy From Housing? [View article]
    David -- I agree with "nothing" new in the testimony. I wonder why you think the Fed needs tools right now. There is plenty of room for M2 expansion if banks decide to lend.

    Some seem to think that the economy fails without constant stimulus. Actually, the labor market slack and available capital are enough to encourage natural growth.

    Just a thought...

    Jeff
    Feb 25, 2015. 03:02 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Help For The Economy From Housing? [View article]
    David -- The characterization of sell side firms as stock pushers is a popular statement, but not really accurate. Morgan Stanley was very bearish a couple of years ago. Many firms have only slight stock market increases in the forecasts.

    My sense is that small cap managers like small caps, emerging market managers like emerging markets, and the bond guys like bonds. They provide interesting information, but careful study is needed.

    Market strategists are a different matter.

    I don't think there is any chance of more QE.

    Jeff
    Feb 24, 2015. 04:19 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Help For The Economy From Housing? [View article]
    michaelliou - Thanks for pointing out my error on Jonathan Golub. I read his work for many years when we was at UBS and I know that he moved on more than a year ago. While I no longer get his weekly commentary, I watch for him both on TV and in print.

    Jeff
    Feb 22, 2015. 07:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Help For The Economy From Housing? [View article]
    tuliptown -- You may well be right about the ECRI. A problem is that many media sources highlight their message. There are always new readers who do not know the full story.

    Maybe I can find a better approach.

    Thanks!

    Jeff
    Feb 22, 2015. 06:50 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Help For The Economy From Housing? [View article]
    jakurtz -- I use cyclicals to mean something broader than consumer discretionary, and there is some overlap with all of the more specific groups. As to energy, we have already seen a good rebound in stocks that were excessively linked to oil prices (refiners and some integrated names). In the short term the jury is out on others, but looking out a year or more there are some good ideas.

    As to housing ..... we'll know more in a week!

    Thanks for joining in.

    Jeff
    Feb 22, 2015. 06:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Bottoming Energy Stocks Support The Market Breakout? [View article]
    D-inv -- The strike seems to be helping some refineries at the expense of others. Your point is a good one.

    Jeff
    Feb 15, 2015. 07:44 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Bottoming Energy Stocks Support The Market Breakout? [View article]
    jakurtz -- You have the right idea. Many seem to believe that energy stocks are an essential part of continued market strength. A lot of the daily trading supports this idea, so it is an interesting short-term question.

    You are also correct in noting that many stocks have rallied without energy, and I agree that this could continue. Long-term investors frequently find opportunities when there is a short-term trading focus.

    Thanks for your question, and I hope this helps.

    Jeff
    Feb 15, 2015. 07:42 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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