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Jeff Miller

 
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  • Jeff Miller Positions For 2015: Still Plenty Of Life In The 'Aging Bull' [View article]
    Lakeaffect -- My recommendation about being politically agnostic emphasizes a focus on likely outcomes and what is market friendly. I see coalition building with a reach to marginal members of the other party as a key dynamic in the new Senate. I am especially encouraged by the apparently reduced chances of a government shutdown or a debt default. The market hates even the threat of these ideas.

    The process is not partisan, nor am I commenting on the merits of the final legislation. Here is a brief description of the principle: http://bit.ly/1DJSxYq

    If we succeed in getting some tax reform, for example, I think it will follow this process. And there will definitely be some completely left out.

    I should have known better than to cite a hot-button issue, even though it would be a great case study for a class in legislative behavior. I hope people will focus on the point of this example.

    Jeff
    Jan 10, 2015. 01:55 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jeff Miller Positions For 2015: Still Plenty Of Life In The 'Aging Bull' [View article]
    Tollsforthee -- The GOP influenced the final bill even without producing a single vote in the Senate. (I think there was one in the House, which was jokingly cited as bipartisan support!) Leaders (of either party) trying to put together a coalition look for the marginal or maverick members of the other party. Sometimes these may be easier to convince than fringe members of your own party. In this case there were some GOP targets, most prominently Olympia Snowe of Maine. She supported the bill in committee, but came under intense pressure from party leadership. Dems were forced to meet the demands of some of their own conservatives as well as Independents. Sen. Nelson and the infamous "Cornhusker kickback" -- -later voted out -- were part of the result. Each vote, at the margin, changed the nature of the bill. An important result was the loss of the "public option." Essentially, the bargaining with Snowe changed the nature of the bill even though she did not vote for it.

    I am not saying that the resulting legislation has bipartisan support, but that the legislative dynamics work across party lines. I think we are going to be seeing a lot more of this. We'll know soon.

    Jeff
    Jan 10, 2015. 01:45 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jeff Miller Positions For 2015: Still Plenty Of Life In The 'Aging Bull' [View article]
    Rog -- You have a good plan which does not require exact timing. Nice going!

    I am watching weekly data, watching for a better balance of supply and demand. It is important to consider both.

    Jeff
    Jan 10, 2015. 01:30 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jeff Miller Positions For 2015: Still Plenty Of Life In The 'Aging Bull' [View article]
    Chump -- It should certainly sell more tickets to the Big House, probably restoring the annual attendance record lead.

    Like you, am watching with interest!

    Jeff
    Jan 10, 2015. 01:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For The 'January Effect'? [View article]
    Jim -- I have not seen data on the first part of your objection, but I am interested if you have a link.

    As you know, I do not regard markets as efficient, but it seems like you are stretching the normal definition of market timing. I am trying to warn against "all-in" or "all-out" decisions based upon some indicator. Instead, it is better to pick a stock allocation that reflects your personal situation. More here: http://bit.ly/1rZ4jgb

    Thanks for joining in. It is fine to disagree. Maybe I have clarified for some.

    Jeff
    Jan 5, 2015. 06:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For The 'January Effect'? [View article]
    Jack -- I agree that the economy is fine. The last two weeks have been a bit soft, and my commentary always reviews the past week and the week ahead. Many of the other sources, which cover a wide range of viewpoints, are the most interesting of what I read.

    In the quant section I have been tracking the SLFSI for years. I think I was an early proponent of this. It includes plenty of credit data, so I agree with that point as well.

    Jeff
    Jan 5, 2015. 11:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For The 'January Effect'? [View article]
    brad77 -- -Yes, you could make the same argument about missing the worst days. The general point is the false attraction of market timing.

    As to the motives of brokerage firms, I hear this argument a lot. It helps to look at the business model. Most firms do not profit by "keeping people in the market." Some make money from commissions. Others from helping with the right asset allocation in a wrap account. The firm in question offers many different asset choices and has no particular reason to emphasize stocks.

    Just a thought...

    Jeff
    Jan 4, 2015. 07:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For The 'January Effect'? [View article]
    Mitchad2 -- The article is written by a contributor, not their main blogger. I don't think they are selling anything special with this post.

    It is difficult to disagree with chartists, mostly because there is no good way to test the methods as we do in regular trading systems. I am not so sure about the art if different experts can see different things in the same chart. what I liked about this was the identification of standard signals which did not work out -- evidence we do not usually see. It is not as obvious as the 1929 chart.

    Maybe I should insist that the Silver Bullet go to refutation of a specific claim.

    Jeff
    Jan 4, 2015. 07:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For The 'January Effect'? [View article]
    Mitchad2 -- Brian is always worth reading. I saw his message this week as a bit mixed. The quarterly "bump" was expected, but he is still concerned about declining estimates in energy.

    I agree with you that some skepticism seems built in.

    Jeff
    Jan 4, 2015. 07:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For The 'January Effect'? [View article]
    crademan -- I hope people take the time to read and remember how to sound like an expert!

    Jeff
    Jan 4, 2015. 07:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For The 'January Effect'? [View article]
    TimmiesRegular -- I am delighted to hear that things are fine in Canada! I gave a question mark to the heading for a reason. Whatever the news might be, everyone is in a rush to find both the best and worst things implied. I appreciate the discussion about effects on Canada.

    Thanks for joining in.

    Jeff
    Jan 4, 2015. 07:39 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For The 'January Effect'? [View article]
    jj1937 -- Heh, heh. Seeking Alpha does a great job on the series and I always give it special effort. I could have finished it this weekend and skipped WTWA, but I wanted to do both.

    And I appreciate your humor!

    Jeff
    Jan 4, 2015. 07:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2014 In Review: Hot Or Not? [View article]
    Mitchad2 -- That is why I watch CNBC using TIVO and mute:) You have the right idea!

    Jeff
    Jan 2, 2015. 10:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 2014 In Review: Hot Or Not? [View article]
    My first position description (HS after hours) was stockboy/cleanup/clerk. I learned about jewelry and how to use a broom and a squeegee.
    Jan 2, 2015. 09:58 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2014 In Review: Best Of The Silver Bullet Awards [View article]
    I am delighted that people are enjoying this, but the real credit goes to the award winners:)

    Jeff
    Dec 30, 2014. 08:15 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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