Seeking Alpha

Jeff Miller

 
View as an RSS Feed
View Jeff Miller's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will The Fed Change Course? [View article]
    Lloyd -- I agree that the currency effect can vary dramatically based upon the factors you cite. There is no substitute for doing your homework on each investment.

    Thanks for joining in!

    Jeff
    Sep 14 11:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will The Fed Change Course? [View article]
    Mayhawk -- Don't we wish!

    Jeff
    Sep 14 11:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Finding Stocks For The 2014 Homestretch [View article]
    Chump -- Mostly our change in price targets is the result of improved earnings from that specific company. Some stocks have rallied more than earnings and approached targets. We sell those and shift to a new theme. Examples would be health insurance stocks. We recently sold UNH and WLP since our theme of expanded insurance coverage played out. (Please note that we were not endorsing ObamaCare, but just accepting the reality).

    We always try for a low PEG ratio, looking at long-term growth.

    As to the right multiple, I think it is usually a function of two things: interest rates and market confidence in earnings estimates. The multiple is increasing because confidence in earnings growth is a little stronger and interest rates remain low.

    Great question. I should probably write a separate post on this one.

    Jeff
    Sep 8 03:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Finding Stocks For The 2014 Homestretch [View article]
    Keith -- I'm glad you find the information helpful and sorry that I missed meeting you in SF.

    I'm not sure why I don't have more comments at the blog, since there are plenty of page views. I very much appreciate the comments, encouragement, and discussion here at Seeking Alpha.

    Jeff
    Sep 7 08:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Finding Stocks For The 2014 Homestretch [View article]
    kolpin -- Yes, I am surprised. Like others whom I cited, I expect this cheap sector to do some catching up.

    That is an area where I have long positions and I am searching for others.

    Jeff
    Sep 7 08:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Finding Stocks For The 2014 Homestretch [View article]
    Angel -- Nice to see you! And thanks for the interesting observations.

    Jeff
    Sep 7 11:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Finding Stocks For The 2014 Homestretch [View article]
    bbro - You accurately note that the yield curve is an important part of Bob's method. While I did not know him while I was doing my recession research, I discovered that he also lives and works in Chicago's Western burbs. We manage to have lunch every month or so, allowing me a closer look at what he is thinking.

    He is constantly re-evaluating components and looking at other indicators that might either confirm or challenge his conclusions. He has (wisely I think) avoided tinkering so far. The employment measures you cite are also an important part of his work. His monthly review on this subject is excellent.

    Thanks for your observation -- always helpful.

    Jeff
    Sep 7 11:25 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • George Soros Is Betting Against The Market And Why Investors Should Take Notice [View article]
    I am surprised at the staying power of this misleading story. I explained the errors in this post: http://seekingalpha.co...

    Since short options are not reported, the authors have no way of knowing if the Soros position is bearish or bullish.
    Sep 7 01:15 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Job Growth Sustain The Rally? [View article]
    mitchad2 -- The timing of various meetings interfered a bit with dinner, but I did have a great lunch at Kuleto's. I would definitely try them for dinner and their on site morning bakery.

    Thanks for joining in with your helpful comments!

    Jeff
    Sep 1 06:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Job Growth Sustain The Rally? [View article]
    Left Banker --- I wasn't sure right away what was happening. The bed seemed to be moving and I was sound asleep.

    Apparently I had the instincts of a veteran, since I got on Twitter for confirmation and more info. It was much faster than any other source!

    Jeff
    Sep 1 05:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For Central Bankers To Unwind? [View article]
    Lloyd and others ---

    This is an elusive problem, meant to illustrate how difficult it is to identify and seek evidence that will disconfirm.

    I agree that the wording could be a little better, and was stated more effectively in the test from which it was drawn. Having said that, I think if you get in the spirit of the problem you will get the answer.

    It is NOT an intelligence test. Everyone reading this is smart.

    I appreciate the patience of those playing along and I hope the exercise was worth it.

    Thanks,

    Jeff
    Aug 19 12:36 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For Central Bankers To Unwind? [View article]
    Vol1985 -- Dwaine has been a little slow with updates, but he sent me something yesterday. The readings are about the same and the chart will reflect that at next posting.

    Jeff
    Aug 19 12:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Misleading Story About George Soros's Filing [View article]
    18214212 -- First off, I am not offended by discussion. Feel free to bring up any points you think others should know.

    Interestingly, I knew about the two recent links you cite and also eight or ten others with similar headlines. I am absolutely delighted that you were unmoved by these stories. Perhaps that is true for many of my readers.

    And I do not want to deal with minutiae ---so let me condense it.

    The filings do not even tell us whether his option position is net short or net long. The reason is that the report does not include the options that he has sold, only those he is long. If he sold a put spread, for example, He might be short a put that is 10% out of the money and long one (or more) that are 15% out of the money. He profits if the market does not trade down by 10% before expiration. It is a long position -- not short -- and it would be consistent with the filing.

    Similarly, we cannot make any inferences about the size of his position compared to the last filing. The "size" of an option position relates to the delta of the option, not the notional value of the underlying.

    It might be interesting to do a follow-up post with several examples of positions that fit the filing and have totally different costs and market effects. For now, I am working on my SF presentation:)

    Your comments are constructive and helpful.

    Thanks,

    Jeff
    Aug 17 04:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For Central Bankers To Unwind? [View article]
    Jonathan the Galt --

    The Seawright discussion is there for all to read, and I am glad that some have. There is an irony. If Seawright disagrees with the "gotcha" guy in the comments, he is alleged to be guilty of confirmation bias. If he does not disagree, the dubious criticism stands unanswered.

    In that spirit --

    I disagree with your interpretation of the discussion at Seawright's page. It is my right and even obligation to disagree with someone who says that I am propagating errors, when I believe that to be incorrect. At Seawright's site, the commenter "Neal" made an obvious error in his first statement and then went hunting for some way to rescue his position.

    The difficulty with putting up a problem that 90% of the people will get wrong is that the smart people who made incorrect answers will have bruised egos. That is what happened to Seawright.

    It is fair to ask what other answer could possibly provide dis-confirminging evidence. I thought the puzzle was educational, and perhaps including it served that purpose.

    I have spent too many hours trying to explain the Monte Hall problem http://bit.ly/L6vYEn to some very smart people to go down that path again. I am not going to write further about the accuracy of the conclusion. Believe what you wish :)

    The Monte Hall objectors also fell back on nitpicking claims about the stated rules. At least you could settle it experimentally and profitably with a deck of cards and a stack of bills!

    One final thought about "copying," as you put it. In the sources I cite I try to feature enough information -- chart, quote, or summary -- so that the reader can get the flavor and investigate further if desired. I am very careful about giving credit. I think that most readers understand and appreciate this approach.

    I hope that others join you in reading the entire article.

    Jeff
    Aug 17 04:39 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Misleading Story About George Soros's Filing [View article]
    Great answer. I hope people are reading your comments.

    Jeff
    Aug 17 12:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
1,625 Comments
2,733 Likes