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Jeff Miller

 
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  • Weighing The Week Ahead: The Market Risk From Current Crises [View article]
    Just Some Guy -- The expected theme for the upcoming week is an important part, but only a part, of WTWA. I try to organize things so that people can easily find what interests them. Some enjoy the review of data, for example, and I always try to highlight some items that you might not see elsewhere.

    Another concept is to focus on investments. I try to accept the reality of what is "market-friendly." Like everyone else I often disagree with the policies of the decision makers involved.

    Thanks for reading.

    Jeff
    Aug 11 09:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: The Market Risk From Current Crises [View article]
    D-inv -- You are correct in noting some action in companies working on Ebola. At the moment the potential economic effects seem limited, but that can certainly change. There are already significant public and private expenditures.

    That is one reason we have been monitoring this. What effects do you recommend that we all watch for?

    Thanks for joining in.

    Jeff
    Aug 11 09:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: The Market Risk From Current Crises [View article]
    dwdallam -- Very good! I think that I am now confused!

    I generally know my own intentions, but have little confidence in my understanding of Putin's.

    Heh, heh --

    Thanks,

    Jeff
    Aug 10 07:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: The Market Risk From Current Crises [View article]
    Thanks to everyone - both for encouragement and for some great comments. When I see some of the thoughtful responses and good suggestions, I feel like we have generated a good discussion.

    We have lost a few of our old friends, some of whom were incorrect in rather dramatic predictions. It is always better to have diverse ideas. A key element is to place some kind of confidence interval around your own conclusions.

    Hmm. That seems like a good topic.

    Once again, thanks for the encouragement. I am delighted that people find this helpful. Since I get no direct compensation for these posts, this is especially important to me.

    Jeff
    Aug 10 07:34 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: The Market Risk From Current Crises [View article]
    Heh, heh.

    I guess I need a better way to say it: Bob does not get the visibility that he has earned via his long-term track record and excellent regular economic reports.

    Jeff
    Aug 10 12:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: The Market Risk From Current Crises [View article]
    Mitchad2 -- My comment about dividend stocks was focused on this week's action. Sorry. I could have provided better context.

    Jeff
    Aug 10 12:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: The Market Risk From Current Crises [View article]
    daro -- One approach might be to focus on European (or even US) stocks that have been hit by exposure to the Russian situation.

    As you know, I like to combine the choice of value stocks with a theme that provides a near-term catalyst. This might not happen.

    You are more confident of your knowledge of Putin's intentions than I am of mine:)

    Jeff
    Aug 10 12:16 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will The Fed Experiment End Badly? [View article]
    There's a thought!

    Thanks, Rich.
    Aug 3 06:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will The Fed Experiment End Badly? [View article]
    Judy_smile -- It makes sense to pay attention to the business cycle. Dr. Shiller (who is personally overweight stocks and recommends that people own stocks in every interview) is correct in many ways. I have written that some of his work scores high on academic criteria, but is perhaps not as practical. If you check out my site, you'll see more. For one thing, he does not account for interest rates or the length of a particular business cycle. I probably should not even say that much, since I do not want to repeat in the comments what I have already written.

    You can also check out Josh Brown, who has several pieces on this. Here is the most recent: http://bit.ly/1s1Wce7

    I hope this is helpful.

    Jeff
    Aug 3 06:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will The Fed Experiment End Badly? [View article]
    Daro -- The valuation story continues week after week. It is difficult to pin down to any specific time. Those forecasting a correction always include a valuation angle.

    I am overdue for an update on that topic, I guess.

    I do not think the Fisher viewpoint has much support, do you?

    Jeff
    Aug 3 06:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will The Fed Experiment End Badly? [View article]
    Young - You are correct in making this distinction. I try to stick to my "market-friendly" definition of good news, but it is sometimes a challenge.

    Mostly, the point is to stay grounded, which is one of your themes as well.

    Thanks,

    Jeff
    Aug 3 06:30 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will The Fed Experiment End Badly? [View article]
    ant21b -- I don't take the Chicago PMI too seriously unless it is on a Friday with the national ISM coming out on Monday. I was watching the market, of course, and it did not seem to have much effect.

    It is true that plenty of folks can buy cars despite poor credit.

    Thanks for joining in.

    Jeff
    Aug 3 06:29 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will The Fed Experiment End Badly? [View article]
    alexkeywest -

    One interesting aspect of the book is that you see aspects of people that you would never know from TV, including Macke. There is a chapter specifically about him and the famous incident.

    I'll explain better in the review. And thanks for reading WTWA:)

    Jeff
    Aug 3 06:26 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will The Fed Experiment End Badly? [View article]
    Mitchad2 - Thanks:)

    Jeff
    Aug 3 06:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Earnings Growth Reignite The Stock Rally? [View article]
    Thanks to everyone for reading and for the encouragement. I traveled to my vacation destination a day early and spent Saturday working from my hotel room, but I'll probably miss next weekend -- then back to normal.

    Jeff
    Jul 21 07:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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