Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Jeff Miller  

View Jeff Miller's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: What Is The Message Of The Market? [View article]
    Fracjob -- The comment was not about Louisiana, a frequent destination for me for both business and pleasure. This year has seen many incidents of violence, rising to the point where people start to fear doing ordinary things. I have offered no comment on either causes or solutions, just as I have not in observing various cases of wars and terrorism around the world.

    My comment about Congress probably makes more sense to long-time readers. I suppose I should have explained more or else left it out. Congress is the all time leader in winning the "ugly" award. If you look back, you will see that I cover a wide range of topics in this category.

    And yes, there are plenty of problems in Chicago.

    Jeff
    Jul 26, 2015. 02:07 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: What Is The Message Of The Market? [View article]
    opensesame888 -- I was a bit surprised by the title and lead paragraph when compared to the text. Three of the four items on the checklist were bullish for oil and the last was uncertain. Sometimes editors reach for eye-catching titles. I thought the analysis was a helpful, simple summary emphasizing supply and demand. Here was a key quote:

    "For now, Morgan Stanley is sticking with its original thesis that prices will improve, largely because OPEC doesn't have much more spare capacity to fill and because oil stocks have already been hammered."

    So I think I got it right, but read for yourself.

    Jeff
    Jul 26, 2015. 02:01 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: What Is The Message Of The Market? [View article]
    Dancing Diva -- If you believe that the market is always right, then you should just buy an index fund. You have no edge.

    Mr. Buffett says that he would be selling pencils from a tin cup if markets were efficient. Historically, much of my edge has come from sticking to proven data and taking the opposite side of the market when indicated. The recession indicators I use provide a lead time of 3 to 9 months, depending on the method. Those citing things like commodity prices have only a couple of recent successes and lots of false positives.

    Thanks for joining in.

    Jeff
    Jul 26, 2015. 01:41 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: What Is The Message Of The Market? [View article]
    Teutonic Knight -- The various Greek bulletins moved the market about 1% in either direction as they occurred. There was not a severe market reaction, despite a lot of attention.

    I wrote a separate article on China, describing the risks and separating the stock market (not very relevant unless you are investing there) from their economy. The Chinese economy has not crashed.

    I give plenty of attention to negative news and reduce position sizes when there is actual risk, measured by data and proven indicators.

    There are at least three global problems right now that are more important than the two you cite.

    Jeff
    Jul 26, 2015. 01:32 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Verdict Still Pending On Earnings [View article]
    18214212 -- Do you know who is included in the "92 million?"

    Saying that they are "not working" is extremely misleading. Do you really expect 80-year old grandmas to be available for work?

    Jeff
    Jul 23, 2015. 03:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Verdict Still Pending On Earnings [View article]
    DancingDiva -- Interesting data.

    Thanks,

    Jeff
    Jul 19, 2015. 10:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Verdict Still Pending On Earnings [View article]
    GaltMachine - The earnings versus stock price trend is one I have also been watching. I have occasionally noted that the equity risk premium is so high (P/E multiples low compared to bonds) because of earnings skepticism. Even though forward earnings have not grown as much, there may be more confidence in them.

    Just an idea I am watching..

    Jeff
    Jul 19, 2015. 10:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Verdict Still Pending On Earnings [View article]
    Sorry not to join in the discussion today. We went into town (that is what people from Naperville say when they go to Chicago) for theater and dinnner -- a nice outing.

    I always read the comments and I especially appreciate the encouraging words. I always prepare for the week ahead, but it does take a lot of extra time to write about it. It is great to know that people find it useful -- especially when we get good discussions going.

    Thanks to all for your participation.

    Jeff
    Jul 19, 2015. 10:50 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Falling Earnings Sink The Stock Market? [View article]
    bob -- Let us suppose that we had the job of corporate CFO. One of our tasks is to determine the financial structure for the company. Start by assuming that we need a certain level of working capital. If we have more equity, it reduces (dilutes) the dividend return and/or capital gain for our investors. If we raise money via debt, we take on a commitment to repay. It is a balance.

    In making this decision, the level of interest rates is relevant. If we can borrow money for 30 years at a low rate, it becomes attractive.

    The answer is a different one for each company, but you can see why debt is a more attractive alternative for some.

    Good question, and I wish I could give a more complete answer.

    Jeff
    Jul 12, 2015. 11:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Falling Earnings Sink The Stock Market? [View article]
    bbro -- And thanks to you for your loyal readership and many helpful links and comments!

    Jeff
    Jul 12, 2015. 11:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Falling Earnings Sink The Stock Market? [View article]
    DougNeal -- Thanks for the kind words.

    Concerning municipal bonds -- I want to be very careful with this comment. As you certainly understand, I do not give individual investment advice as a general observation. Muni's are highly personal -- income, tax situation, investment needs, locality -- etc. In my state (Illinois) there is the full range of these bonds. Some (like my local school district) are strong while others are not.

    With this in mind, these investments might work for high-income investors who are confident of the bonds they are buying. I still like laddered individual bonds as opposed to funds. You are a young person who must think about inflation. In my experience, the correct stock allocation is rarely "zero."

    That's the best I can do as a general comment. Covering your expenses is a good start.

    Jeff
    Jul 12, 2015. 10:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Falling Earnings Sink The Stock Market? [View article]
    AMcCausland -- As you know, I am a big fan of Doug Short. I wish that he would use a wider range of valuation indicators. I have written about the ones you mention. Just as a test, as we go through earnings season ask yourself how many people mention the Tobin's Q for a stock. What would it be for Google or Amazon?

    Everyone talks about multiples of next year's earnings, so why not consider that as an alternative?

    I would not be surprised to see the multiple on forward earnings go to 18-20, as long as the ten-year yield stays below 4%.

    But it is a wild card.

    Good question, and thanks.

    Jeff
    Jul 12, 2015. 09:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Falling Earnings Sink The Stock Market? [View article]
    James -- I appreciate your point, which I consider each week. Some of the most interesting material comes from paid sources. Naturally, I maintain a number of subscriptions.

    I try to emphasize the free sources. For those that are paid, I quote some content while respecting the intellectual property of the source. It is intended to give you enough information to see if you should buy the publication yourself.

    I never cite a paid source that I do not find to be of tremendous value. Nearly all will provide an inexpensive or free trial.

    I hope you understand.

    Jeff
    Jul 12, 2015. 12:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Falling Earnings Sink The Stock Market? [View article]
    Paul -- set your Google to "rivalry between House and Senate" and you'll get some useful hits. Here is a description from CQ, a great source:

    Each branch is structured so that it may restrain the others' excesses, resulting in a form of institutionalized “checks and balances.” Within Congress itself the legislative power is checked in many ways. To a degree the House and Senate are competitors, even when both are controlled by the same party. And that rivalry can be seen no matter which party is in control. Each chamber seeks to protect its own powers and prerogatives. The Constitution helps to create the competition—that is, the checks—by giving some powers to the Senate alone and others to the House. Powers reserved to the Senate include approval of treaties, confirmation of presidential nominations, and the power to try impeachments. Granted to the House alone is the authority to originate impeachments and all revenue-raising bills.

    Although competition and conflict are built into the system, cooperation between House and Senate is essential because legislation must be passed in identical form by both chambers before it can be sent to the president for approval or veto.
    Jul 12, 2015. 12:39 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Falling Earnings Sink The Stock Market? [View article]
    paulbip -- In our "Felix" universe we do have a separate sector for solar. It is often correlated with regular energy (higher prices make alternatives more attractive) but not always.

    Good point.

    Jeff
    Jul 12, 2015. 12:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
1,826 Comments
3,168 Likes