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Jeff Miller  

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  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Greek Ripples Or Economic Fireworks? [View article]
    DH51 -- I don't think we should worry about the first few rate hikes, as long as economic news and earnings are encouraging.

    Jeff
    Jun 28, 2015. 09:25 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: What Does The Greek Crisis Mean For Financial Markets? [View article]
    Robert -- Ryan Detrick notes objections he has gotten about the sentiment surveys. I thought his discussion was very good.

    Personally, I think it does matter who is getting surveyed. Also, the best sentiment indicator is the equity risk premium, which remains at very high levels.

    Jeff
    Jun 21, 2015. 12:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: What Does The Greek Crisis Mean For Financial Markets? [View article]
    Robert -- WTWA is not intended as a comprehensive analysis of all risks. My risk series will lead to a page on my site that I will update occasionally.

    I suspect that our list of risks (which I occasionally mention here) is similar.

    Jeff
    Jun 21, 2015. 12:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: What Does The Greek Crisis Mean For Financial Markets? [View article]
    18214212 --

    Good point . Thanks for bringing this up.

    Jeff
    Jun 21, 2015. 12:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: What Does The Greek Crisis Mean For Financial Markets? [View article]
    cfetrader -- Thanks for sharing your personal experience on this issue.

    Jeff
    Jun 21, 2015. 12:45 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: The Market Message For The Fed [View article]
    SanDiego - I am curious about "pissing on Felix."

    A major theme here is that trading and investing perspectives often differ. I try to discuss both. Felix has a three-week time horizon, which is too short for most investors.

    What am I missing? Thanks in advance.

    Jeff
    Jun 18, 2015. 09:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: The Market Message For The Fed [View article]
    18214212 -- Santelli gets paid for bashing the Fed, a theme that resonates with his audience. There is nothing that could be said that would satisfy his tests! Yesterday's rant about spongecake echoed the theme that the Fed should provide some kind of schedule or rule-based system. This is popular among policy critics and his regular guests.

    Our problem is different. We get paid for making good investments. Since that comes from understanding what is going on, it behooves us to pay attention to what the Fed is doing --- not what we think they should do.

    Jeff
    Jun 18, 2015. 09:51 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: The Market Message For The Fed [View article]
    jvg747 -- If I waited to write until Sunday night, I could include weekend events:)

    The Greece story remains a wild card, but the deadline is still the end of the month. Meanwhile, twists and turns will move markets a bit, just as they did last week.

    So we'll see how it plays out, and I don't really disagree.

    Jeff
    Jun 15, 2015. 10:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: The Market Message For The Fed [View article]
    Robert --

    There is no consensus thinking about the economy. I would describe it as intense disagreement.

    I try to think about groups of people as representing a distribution of opinion and possible action. It does seem that more people are emphasizing the "economy is weak" theme than any other approach. What investors should want is stronger corporate earnings:)

    Jeff
    Jun 14, 2015. 04:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: The Market Message For The Fed [View article]
    SanDiego -- This is a good example. Higher revenue does not necessarily mean higher market cap or profits. Thus Chevron instead of Apple.

    Jeff
    Jun 14, 2015. 12:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: The Market Message For The Fed [View article]
    DanielJRoche -- If you click through on the link to the original article, there is a lot more detail including the list for each state and the 2014 leader. For RI it was CVS Caremark in both years.

    Jeff
    Jun 14, 2015. 12:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: The Market Message For The Fed [View article]
    djsulli --- Thanks!

    For me it is an all-day Saturday ritual, but I had the Blackhawks on in the background last night!

    Jeff
    Jun 14, 2015. 12:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: The Market Message For The Fed [View article]
    cfetrader -- It is true that my reports have (accurately) reached a bullish conclusion for long-term investors. This reflects my own assessment of the evidence, so "bias" is not really the right term. When the indicators flash a caution signal (as happened in late 2011) I cut back on overall size. In conservative programs I also get cautious when there is event risk, like the "fiscal cliff" issues. We also trim and rebalance constantly, often winding up with 15 to 50% cash for a time as we shop for new positions.

    To summarize, I am open to any conclusion. It is important to be on the right side of big moves.

    As I'm sure everyone notes, Felix frequently changes positions and has even been short (via inverse ETFs) a few times in recent years.

    Whatever my stated views, I always welcome alternative suggestions -- especially when there is solid reasoning.

    Thanks for joining in with one of your typically interesting comments and also the link.

    Jeff
    Jun 14, 2015. 12:46 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: The Market Message For The Fed [View article]
    Robert -- On A-Shares, there is a rush to buy what formerly was inaccessible. Once that is done, it will calm down. I don't see how to judge this on the fundamentals, but Felix has been trading it a bit with some success.

    The chart on interest rates does provide context, showing that rate increases are fine if starting at a low point and staying there. This is consistent with my own research, showing a curvilinear relationship with P/E multiples. Basically, when rates are too low it reflects deflationary fears and skepticism about earnings. As rates increase, so do earnings and confidence --- at least up to a point.

    Doug has a regular chart showing several valuation indicators, of which the Market Cap to GDP (sometimes called the Buffett indicator) is one. The measures he chooses do not seem to me to reflect balance, including the low level of interest rates. Buffett and Munger both mentioned this recently. There are several other valuation measures that have been much more helpful -- but that is a long topic which arouses undue passion.

    Thanks for the comments.

    Jeff
    Jun 14, 2015. 12:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: The Market Message For The Fed [View article]
    crademan -- It is important to have a "safe" portion of the portfolio. A ladder of individual bonds can achieve this with very little risk of principal and a known (but low) return. I don't go out more than seven years and I use fifteen different investment grade bonds on five rungs. As rates go higher, the ladder gradually delivers a higher return. It takes a little work, but many brokers have a tool to help you.

    There are also some REITs that may hold up OK in a rising rate environment. If you also have an appropriate allocation to the right stocks, you can also have some protection.

    I am concerned that too many people are "all in" on bond mutual funds and what they see as conservative stocks.

    I hope this helps a bit. My "quest for yield" series covered some of this.

    Jeff
    Jun 14, 2015. 11:00 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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