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Jeff Miller  

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  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For 'Risk On'? [View article]
    faustius -- Yes, I like to follow the forward earnings estimates and think they add value. I have cited FactSet and/or Brian Gilmartin on this topic almost every week, as well as Adam Parker a couple of weeks ago.

    When looking at the week ahead, as I noted in the recent history, I am often looking for potential inflection points as well as subjects for current debate. Whether we should wait for analyst estimates to lead us is one factor to consider.

    Estimates are down from about $127 to $122 on the S&P 500 over the last two months.

    Good points to watch!

    Jeff
    Feb 9, 2015. 06:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For 'Risk On'? [View article]
    Thanks to all of those who offered encouraging words. While I do not reply individually to each such comment, I definitely read them, as well as the nice emails. When I don't feel like writing on a Saturday, I try to keep that in mind.

    I also enjoy the excellent comments and interplay we have among readers.

    Thanks to all!

    Jeff
    Feb 8, 2015. 08:29 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For 'Risk On'? [View article]
    Angel -- The European interest rates are important. If you saw my annual preview, you know that I see an arb between those rates and ours, facilitated by a strong dollar.

    That makes sense for the bund, but not so much for Spain!

    Great point -- always nice to hear from you, and I wish I could add more.

    Jeff
    Feb 8, 2015. 08:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For 'Risk On'? [View article]
    moatfrog --- If you read the section on advice for investors, you will see that I clearly spelled out four attractive sectors. I also did so in the annual preview, which is the basis for that forecast.

    I might turn out to be wrong about these picks, but it is inaccurate to state that I have not been clear.

    Jeff
    Feb 8, 2015. 03:50 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For 'Risk On'? [View article]
    Mitchad2 -- I like regional banks for exactly the reason you provide -- expectations of a steepening yield curve. The indiscriminate selling of some banks in oil country is just a kicker.

    And I certainly don't mean that you should buy them all. It takes some work to learn the amount of exposure. The immediate trading reaction is to find a list and sell everything. Investors can take more time and make some good selections.

    Thanks for the interesting points.

    Jeff
    Feb 8, 2015. 03:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For 'Risk On'? [View article]
    Mitchad2 -- Sure, I am watching the situation in Greece. The two links I provided this week were selected from many other things I read, as is usually the case.

    The issue has not sparked the "dominoes falling" fear that the last Grexit threat did. There seems to be a better overall perspective.

    In general, I agree with you that there is a process of negotiation. It is being compressed into a short time. The Eurozone has been good for Germany.

    Jeff
    Feb 8, 2015. 03:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For 'Risk On'? [View article]
    vpozas -- I'm sorry you quit reading so soon. If that is your standard for acceptable diction, you must not read many stories in their entirety!

    I quickly learned that I cannot write my blog posts with the same care that I wrote as a professor. There is no way to do that, get the extra eyes on the material, and still be timely. I think that the overall product is a pretty high standard.

    You might consider that "real" and "for real" mean slightly different things. We can all see the reality of the data. By saying "for real" I was trying to highlight the issue of whether this was a meaningful shift or (as a star athlete might put it) a fake out:)

    http://bit.ly/1IwVJNd

    Jeff
    Feb 8, 2015. 03:23 PM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will The Data Landslide Reveal Economic Weakness? [View article]
    yblarrr -- As a general part of my work I am constantly reading. I make note of items throughout the week, although a lot of material is not available right away. It consumes all day Saturday, sometimes running late if I have done something else for a while.

    I also try to write despite travels. I posted from multiple cities this year.

    I really enjoy the comments, especially when people have fresh ideas and provide some good inks.

    Thanks for writing!

    Jeff
    Feb 1, 2015. 05:01 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will The Data Landslide Reveal Economic Weakness? [View article]
    Dave -- Some time ago I cut out a lot of background material and moved it to my web site, providing a link. Naturally I like to keep everything as fresh as possible. A problem is that when I leave out everything you call boilerplate, I get a lot of comments from people who lack the background on each section. What I have is a balance, providing some basic information for new readers including pointers for more. For regular readers I try to keep the key topics in a regular format, making it easy to find your favorite section.

    I actually asked for reader feedback on this a few months ago and most seemed to like the current method.

    Most of the weekly links in the quant corner are freshened by the sources each week. I sometimes highlight especially interesting content.

    Maybe I could put a date on the investment advice update section, but surely you would not expect a change since my annual preview? Someone who is changing investment advice frequently is trading, not investing.

    And finally, the links to my site are for reader convenience and for mine, so I don't have to answer the same questions in the comments each week. The new "investor fears" section is a good example of that.

    Thanks for your comments and for reading. I'll think about a better way of highlighting changes in linked content.

    Jeff
    Feb 1, 2015. 04:55 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will The Data Landslide Reveal Economic Weakness? [View article]
    dancing diva -- I have mentioned declining forward earnings as "bad" on a couple of occasions. Wouldn't it be refreshing to learn that the estimates had been taken down enough?

    I agree that the defensive sectors helped the averages this week, but I don't get your point. There will be weeks (probably a lot of them) where the fund flows will move the other way. Are you saying that stocks would be in free fall were it not for the grandma sectors?

    Thanks again for joining in.

    Jeff
    Feb 1, 2015. 04:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will The Data Landslide Reveal Economic Weakness? [View article]
    Mitchad2 -- I always do a special check of Brian's site, since he is often writing about the same time I do. Last night there was nothing. Today he has a new post: http://bit.ly/1uPYUUK. Forward earnings dropped from a projected increase of 3.8% to 3.1%.

    He also notes that the weakness is mostly energy and that growth ex-energy is about 7.5% for the quarter.

    Do energy estimates have further to fall? We'll see.

    Jeff

    Jeff
    Feb 1, 2015. 11:35 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: A Focus On Europe? [View article]
    Thanks to everyone for great comments and encouraging words. I took the day off today, but I am reading all of the comments now.

    Jeff
    Jan 25, 2015. 10:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: A Focus On Europe? [View article]
    Mitchad2 -- Yes, I had our last week's discussion about the parlay in mind when I wrote this.

    I am pleased that the response has been measured so far.

    Thanks for your observations, and I also tend to side with Brian.

    Jeff
    Jan 25, 2015. 10:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: The Message From Fourth Quarter Earnings [View article]
    richjoy403 -- As you might guess, I considered the Gundlach presentation for inclusion this week. Maybe I see him and his advice as a bit more controversial than do you. In any case, many readers enjoy suggestions in the comments, so thanks for that.

    I also did not include the most recent Doug Kass laundry list of things to worry about. If you start with a conclusion, you can always find many bivariate charts to support it. None of these have well-reasoned causal relationships and the right controls to support them.

    Last night the announcer pointed out the Aaron Rodgers was 45-1 in winning games where he had a lead of 16 points or greater.....

    The "1871 issue" keeps popping up. I have written about it several times, but I am working on another take, perhaps with video.

    I have given several reasons for why this business cycle is different --- rapidly decline, slow recovery. It could go on for years in a plodding fashion.

    That's the best I can do in the comments, but I'll rejoin the theme in the future.

    Thanks again for the suggestion and the link.

    Jeff
    Jan 19, 2015. 09:43 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: The Message From Fourth Quarter Earnings [View article]
    moatfrog -- If you look at my annual preview piece, I think I was pretty clear in significant forecasts -- the market, sectors, and some specific stocks. In particular, I think the top sector (utilities) is dangerous and the bottom sector (energy) is attractive. I also mentioned some things to watch for.

    The main idea is that investors who focus on valuation measures that have worked for many decades should not be distracted when over-priced stocks become even more over-priced.

    What stocks and sectors do you like for next year?

    Jeff
    Jan 18, 2015. 07:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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