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Jeff Miller

 
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  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Should Stock Investors Fear Current 'Divergences'? [View article]
    Mitchad2 -- I am still working on this issue. There is both specific and systemic risk, and it depends upon the actual investment choice.

    You seem to have a good personal limit on this. In my experience, some investors are very aggressive even when seeing a small edge.

    Jeff
    Sep 21, 2014. 08:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Should Stock Investors Fear Current 'Divergences'? [View article]
    Cautious Investor -- I had this question in mind, but had not seen any data on that point. Thanks for sharing.

    There is a great business in finding angles like the 47% story.

    Jeff
    Sep 21, 2014. 08:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Should Stock Investors Fear Current 'Divergences'? [View article]
    Tommy the Cork -- Good question! I am working on a separate article on this topic, so please stay tuned.

    Jeff
    Sep 21, 2014. 08:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Should Stock Investors Fear Current 'Divergences'? [View article]
    wizjinx -- Thanks for the kind words, and also for sharing your story. Let us hope that it will help others!

    Jeff
    Sep 21, 2014. 08:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will The Fed Change Course? [View article]
    bbro -- Thanks! And also to others offering encouragement. It helps me to tee it up every Saturday.

    Jeff
    Sep 14, 2014. 11:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will The Fed Change Course? [View article]
    Mitchad2 -- I have occasionally mentioned the underground economy, mostly when there was a surprising gain in consumption. We probably all see lots of "off the books" work and/or casual payments and barter.

    All good points, and thanks for raising them.

    Jeff
    Sep 14, 2014. 11:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will The Fed Change Course? [View article]
    Lloyd -- I agree that the currency effect can vary dramatically based upon the factors you cite. There is no substitute for doing your homework on each investment.

    Thanks for joining in!

    Jeff
    Sep 14, 2014. 11:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will The Fed Change Course? [View article]
    Mayhawk -- Don't we wish!

    Jeff
    Sep 14, 2014. 11:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Finding Stocks For The 2014 Homestretch [View article]
    Chump -- Mostly our change in price targets is the result of improved earnings from that specific company. Some stocks have rallied more than earnings and approached targets. We sell those and shift to a new theme. Examples would be health insurance stocks. We recently sold UNH and WLP since our theme of expanded insurance coverage played out. (Please note that we were not endorsing ObamaCare, but just accepting the reality).

    We always try for a low PEG ratio, looking at long-term growth.

    As to the right multiple, I think it is usually a function of two things: interest rates and market confidence in earnings estimates. The multiple is increasing because confidence in earnings growth is a little stronger and interest rates remain low.

    Great question. I should probably write a separate post on this one.

    Jeff
    Sep 8, 2014. 03:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Finding Stocks For The 2014 Homestretch [View article]
    Keith -- I'm glad you find the information helpful and sorry that I missed meeting you in SF.

    I'm not sure why I don't have more comments at the blog, since there are plenty of page views. I very much appreciate the comments, encouragement, and discussion here at Seeking Alpha.

    Jeff
    Sep 7, 2014. 08:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Finding Stocks For The 2014 Homestretch [View article]
    kolpin -- Yes, I am surprised. Like others whom I cited, I expect this cheap sector to do some catching up.

    That is an area where I have long positions and I am searching for others.

    Jeff
    Sep 7, 2014. 08:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Finding Stocks For The 2014 Homestretch [View article]
    Angel -- Nice to see you! And thanks for the interesting observations.

    Jeff
    Sep 7, 2014. 11:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Finding Stocks For The 2014 Homestretch [View article]
    bbro - You accurately note that the yield curve is an important part of Bob's method. While I did not know him while I was doing my recession research, I discovered that he also lives and works in Chicago's Western burbs. We manage to have lunch every month or so, allowing me a closer look at what he is thinking.

    He is constantly re-evaluating components and looking at other indicators that might either confirm or challenge his conclusions. He has (wisely I think) avoided tinkering so far. The employment measures you cite are also an important part of his work. His monthly review on this subject is excellent.

    Thanks for your observation -- always helpful.

    Jeff
    Sep 7, 2014. 11:25 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • George Soros Is Betting Against The Market And Why Investors Should Take Notice [View article]
    I am surprised at the staying power of this misleading story. I explained the errors in this post: http://seekingalpha.co...

    Since short options are not reported, the authors have no way of knowing if the Soros position is bearish or bullish.
    Sep 7, 2014. 01:15 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Job Growth Sustain The Rally? [View article]
    mitchad2 -- The timing of various meetings interfered a bit with dinner, but I did have a great lunch at Kuleto's. I would definitely try them for dinner and their on site morning bakery.

    Thanks for joining in with your helpful comments!

    Jeff
    Sep 1, 2014. 06:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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