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Jeff Miller  

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  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Job Gains Signal An Economic Rebound? [View article]
    Reel Ken --

    Is this the research you mean? http://bit.ly/1I1My6P

    Thanks for the suggestion.

    Jeff
    Jun 1, 2015. 12:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Job Gains Signal An Economic Rebound? [View article]
    Rob -- Each week I make decisions about which events to mention. I always welcome comments about important items that someone thinks I missed.

    As to the "tin foil" idea -- heh heh -- you are obviously a new reader. I have frequently written about Chicago's situation in the past. Living in a Chicago suburb, I follow this very closely. There are many interesting aspects, but I am not sure the Moody's decision changes anything much. Do you think this is a national story?

    Thanks for joining in. If you read more, I believe and hope that you will see my attempt for balance in finding facts.

    Jeff
    Jun 1, 2015. 12:06 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will The Interest Rate Spike Pressure Stock Prices? [View article]
    True! The costs of student loans are immediate and the payoff is deferred.

    Jeff
    May 17, 2015. 11:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will The Interest Rate Spike Pressure Stock Prices? [View article]
    GaltMachine - I cannot cite a source so you are free to fear the worst!

    I do deal with people in the business -- both brokers an funds -- so I have some idea of what can get done. The leverage is not like the 1998 days and the margin calls are tighter.

    Jeff
    May 17, 2015. 11:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will The Interest Rate Spike Pressure Stock Prices? [View article]
    Geoffrey -- Of course. If you follow the links on my section where I set this up, you will see discussion about Germany.

    Bill Gross said it was a great short, but it turns out to be difficult to do in practice.

    You are correct in noting that, whatever the reason, the US rates seem to be linked to Europe. I offered one theory in the conclusion.

    Jeff
    May 17, 2015. 08:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will The Interest Rate Spike Pressure Stock Prices? [View article]
    Teutonic Knight -- We should all be watching Greece, but it is not as significant for the overall financial system as it was before. I am not convinced that the overall "PIIGS" theory makes sense, but I do try to report this whenever there are developments.

    Thanks for keeping this in mind.

    Jeff
    May 17, 2015. 08:39 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will The Interest Rate Spike Pressure Stock Prices? [View article]
    As always, thanks to those providing some encouragement and also for the great comments and questions!

    Jeff
    May 17, 2015. 08:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will The Interest Rate Spike Pressure Stock Prices? [View article]
    18214212 -- My statement about initial claims is a simple fact based upon correlations. Let us consider your logic, which is quite good.

    Jobless claims should be in the context of the labor force size - but the correlation is strong. My biggest complaint is that this shows only the job losses, not the new jobs created. That is why I like to include ISM and consumer confidence in analyzing labor market. Both of these are softening.

    So perhaps employment gains are a bit overstated. We have solid evidence that people are not rushing to spend the gasoline savings.

    I hope that my material makes it clear -- this is a continuing sluggish recovery, but that means it might last longer.

    Great comment and question.

    Jeff
    May 17, 2015. 08:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will The Interest Rate Spike Pressure Stock Prices? [View article]
    SanDiego -- I collect material all week and then parse on Saturday, basically spending all day.

    Finding the theme is the biggest challenge, but also most rewarding for me -- and I hope for others.

    Thanks!

    Jeff
    May 17, 2015. 08:27 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will The Interest Rate Spike Pressure Stock Prices? [View article]
    anonymoose -- We have fewer companies that we like on our screens, but we are very strict about entries. There are plenty that are at fair value with good prospects.

    You need to be cautious about the sectors with valuations that are very high -- mostly those that did well last year.

    Thanks for joining in!

    Jeff
    May 17, 2015. 08:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will The Interest Rate Spike Pressure Stock Prices? [View article]
    GaltMachine -- I had the LTCM crisis in mind as I wrote this. I need to write something more on the carry trade, but I wanted to get the concept out for consideration in a timely fashion.

    We do not know how many are in this trade, but the leverage ratios and systemic risk do not rate to be like 1998. Also, the Treasuries are not the "funding currency" on this one. The funds in those days were long everything else and short the instrument where a flight to quality would take place.

    Thanks for bringing this out.

    Jeff
    May 17, 2015. 08:21 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Can Employment News Change The Fed's Course? [View article]
    Your comments are always interesting. Maybe I got the wrong impression. So many people attribute everything to the Fed.

    Thanks again for joining in.

    Jeff
    May 5, 2015. 03:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Can Employment News Change The Fed's Course? [View article]
    18214212 -- If you look at long-term trends you will see that the economy (measured by the Big Four which I frequently cite), earnings and forward earnings, and stock prices have all climbed together since 2009.

    You have mentioned a few specific data points with an opposite reaction. Those trying to explain everything via Fed policy have this backwards interpretation. This facile "explanation" changes over time. It has been more than a year since the Fed started tapering QE purchases, and they have now ended altogether. So the "explanation" now switches to ZIRP.

    Thanks for joining in, but I think you will eventually be on the wrong side as this plays out.

    Jeff
    May 5, 2015. 12:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Can Employment News Change The Fed's Course? [View article]
    bigisbetter -- Thanks! I try to tee it up every week. I always think about the market and I always have a plan. I do not always feel like writing it down!

    Jeff
    May 4, 2015. 10:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Can Employment News Change The Fed's Course? [View article]
    sawdoctor -- Home prices are an indicator that people might criticize either way. I take the simple view that increasing home prices reflect a healthy market and an attractive purchase. I understand that some think this means homes are less affordable. These folks seem to find the negative side of any information about housing.

    Do you think higher prices are a negative?

    Jeff
    May 4, 2015. 10:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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