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Jeff Miller

 
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  • Weighing The Week Ahead: What Does The End Of QE Mean To The Individual Investor? [View article]
    CautiousInvestor -

    The appropriate forward PE multiple should have something to do with interest rates (or inflation). Back when we had double-digit inflation and bond yields, you would never have paid a 15x multiple for stocks.

    You can think of it as an asset allocation choice or simply as a reflection of market expectations. Either way, a higher multiple is justified. The current multiple reflects persistent skepticism about earnings and especially profit margins.

    I understand that many (most?) look at earnings multiples in terms of long-term averages and charts with no adjustment. I think we can do better.

    Thanks for joining in once again.

    Jeff
    Nov 2, 2014. 09:26 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: What Does The End Of QE Mean To The Individual Investor? [View article]
    Thanks, Nate. That is indeed what I meant:)

    Jeff
    Nov 2, 2014. 09:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Is The Stock Market Correction Over? [View article]
    Thanks Imych -- both for reading and for your kind thoughts and words.

    Jeff
    Oct 19, 2014. 10:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Is The Stock Market Correction Over? [View article]
    WKRAWDAD -- I provided the wrong table. Seeking Alpha has published the correction.

    Thanks for your comment, and I apologize for the error.

    Jeff
    Oct 19, 2014. 10:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Is The Stock Market Correction Over? [View article]
    macombet -- Thanks to you and others for your encouragement in how I spend my Saturdays!

    Jeff
    Oct 19, 2014. 01:59 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Is The Stock Market Correction Over? [View article]
    Mitchad2 -- As you know from my final thoughts, I agree with your assessment. It must be a great challenge to create content to fill all of that air time.

    Jeff
    Oct 19, 2014. 12:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Can Earnings Season Reverse The Stock Market Decline? [View article]
    John - Scott has a definite viewpoint. Like you, I try to reflect a variety of perspectives. Asset values do matter. Some folks who have the income choose to borrow. Why else would Ben Bernanke want to refinance is mortgage?

    You are quite correct that debt service is an important measure. Many people have refinanced at lower rates, some helped by HARP. The Kool-Aide comes in different flavors. Much of what I read is confused with the shampoo -- a repetition of what they have been saying all along.

    Thanks for joining in!

    Jeff
    Oct 14, 2014. 10:36 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Global Weakness Drag Down The U.S. Economy? [View article]
    ucantfixstupid -- I was waiting for someone to comment on the implied opinion that it is a good time to lock in rates :)

    Jeff
    Oct 7, 2014. 10:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Global Weakness Drag Down The U.S. Economy? [View article]
    Got That Swing -

    Like many who are bullish for the longer term, I understand those who are cautious for the next few weeks. If you are a trader, you try to catch those swings. If you are an investor, you evaluate each opportunity the market provides.

    Investors who try to time the market usually do not get back in. Talk to a friend who "trades" Apple stock, for example, and see what they tell you. If we want to analyze sources of information, those who make money from commissions universally tell you how easy it is to take your life experiences and make money.....

    But you raise an interesting point. I could do a little more on the logic behind the Felix method. This week I almost included a two-week, minute-by-minute market chart to emphasize Felix's main theme -- recognition of trends as modified by some sophisticated filtering and the penalty box.

    Thanks for joining in.

    Jeff
    Oct 5, 2014. 03:17 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Investor Lessons From This Week's Data Deluge [View article]
    Total Return Investor -- Thanks for pointing out the problem with the table. When I copied it, I thought it was one large table rather than two which were adjacent -- and then I did not see the difference when including.

    I hope everyone will follow the link for the full table and analysis. (I'll fix it if I can, but I'm having some site problems right now.

    Thanks again --

    Jeff
    Sep 28, 2014. 03:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Investor Lessons From This Week's Data Deluge [View article]
    daro -- You accurately point out some important differences. Mostly I wanted to highlight Scott Grannis's conclusion.

    Jeff
    Sep 28, 2014. 11:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Investor Lessons From This Week's Data Deluge [View article]
    Mitchad2 -- Fridson's comment is flippant, and I wondered if it was funny. I tested on Mrs. OldProf who chuckled. She does not care about technical analysis versus fundamentals:)

    I congratulate you on your trading success. All I can do is report what I have seen among some very intelligent people I know who have tried this. At any given time we see the survivors, of course.

    Continued good luck to you, to accompany your skill!

    Jeff
    Sep 28, 2014. 11:51 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Investor Lessons From This Week's Data Deluge [View article]
    richjoy403 -- There have been a couple of bad Octobers, but on average it is positive. Remember when everyone said that September was the worst month?

    The negative seasonal meme now seems to extend through most of the year!

    Jeff
    Sep 28, 2014. 11:47 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Investor Lessons From This Week's Data Deluge [View article]
    bbro -- Thanks again for sharing one of your indicators!

    Jeff
    Sep 28, 2014. 11:46 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Circular Reasoning About Commodities [View article]
    Shaggieman -- People from various disciplines have differing methods and conclusions. Accountants (like the author of the post you cite) seem to like the certainty of past data and exhibit skepticism about modeling and discomfort with uncertainty. Accounting is an important approach, endorsed by Warren Buffett (who pays little attention to macro economic matters).

    I prefer to get wisdom from many sources, finding the best from each. When someone throws out all of the knowledge from an approach saying "this time is different" they are probably wrong. This is especially true when the writer does not have the training or experience that he is criticizing.

    This is a good topic for a post, since there are many such examples. We would like to see an actual track record for anyone making forecasts.

    Jeff
    Sep 26, 2014. 12:28 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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