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Jeff Miller

 
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  • Weighing The Week Ahead: The Market Risk From Current Crises [View article]
    Mitchad2 -- My comment about dividend stocks was focused on this week's action. Sorry. I could have provided better context.

    Jeff
    Aug 10 12:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: The Market Risk From Current Crises [View article]
    daro -- One approach might be to focus on European (or even US) stocks that have been hit by exposure to the Russian situation.

    As you know, I like to combine the choice of value stocks with a theme that provides a near-term catalyst. This might not happen.

    You are more confident of your knowledge of Putin's intentions than I am of mine:)

    Jeff
    Aug 10 12:16 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will The Fed Experiment End Badly? [View article]
    There's a thought!

    Thanks, Rich.
    Aug 3 06:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will The Fed Experiment End Badly? [View article]
    Judy_smile -- It makes sense to pay attention to the business cycle. Dr. Shiller (who is personally overweight stocks and recommends that people own stocks in every interview) is correct in many ways. I have written that some of his work scores high on academic criteria, but is perhaps not as practical. If you check out my site, you'll see more. For one thing, he does not account for interest rates or the length of a particular business cycle. I probably should not even say that much, since I do not want to repeat in the comments what I have already written.

    You can also check out Josh Brown, who has several pieces on this. Here is the most recent: http://bit.ly/1s1Wce7

    I hope this is helpful.

    Jeff
    Aug 3 06:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will The Fed Experiment End Badly? [View article]
    Daro -- The valuation story continues week after week. It is difficult to pin down to any specific time. Those forecasting a correction always include a valuation angle.

    I am overdue for an update on that topic, I guess.

    I do not think the Fisher viewpoint has much support, do you?

    Jeff
    Aug 3 06:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will The Fed Experiment End Badly? [View article]
    Young - You are correct in making this distinction. I try to stick to my "market-friendly" definition of good news, but it is sometimes a challenge.

    Mostly, the point is to stay grounded, which is one of your themes as well.

    Thanks,

    Jeff
    Aug 3 06:30 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will The Fed Experiment End Badly? [View article]
    ant21b -- I don't take the Chicago PMI too seriously unless it is on a Friday with the national ISM coming out on Monday. I was watching the market, of course, and it did not seem to have much effect.

    It is true that plenty of folks can buy cars despite poor credit.

    Thanks for joining in.

    Jeff
    Aug 3 06:29 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will The Fed Experiment End Badly? [View article]
    alexkeywest -

    One interesting aspect of the book is that you see aspects of people that you would never know from TV, including Macke. There is a chapter specifically about him and the famous incident.

    I'll explain better in the review. And thanks for reading WTWA:)

    Jeff
    Aug 3 06:26 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will The Fed Experiment End Badly? [View article]
    Mitchad2 - Thanks:)

    Jeff
    Aug 3 06:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Earnings Growth Reignite The Stock Rally? [View article]
    Thanks to everyone for reading and for the encouragement. I traveled to my vacation destination a day early and spent Saturday working from my hotel room, but I'll probably miss next weekend -- then back to normal.

    Jeff
    Jul 21 07:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For A Mid-Course Correction? [View article]
    Thanks once again to everyone who joined in the comments. I appreciate encouragement and suggestions, and I am also used to those who scoff without reasoning -- although we seem to have lost quite a few former regulars.

    I often use comments as ideas for future posts.

    Jeff
    Jul 7 07:15 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For A Mid-Course Correction? [View article]
    nicholas davout -- gasoline prices for all grades, national average, were 3.735 on April 14th and 3.753 on July 7th. http://1.usa.gov/1j9HaD6

    Did you have a source for your assertion?

    Jeff
    Jul 7 07:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Economic Fireworks? [View article]
    Whidbey -- I really thought you had disappeared after your series of inaccurate and unfair comments. Instead, you seem to have created a new ID so that no one can see the past errors.

    I really hope that everyone understands how silly and vague your comment is. I work very hard to provide solid information. One of the most irritating things about Seeking Alpha is that anonymous people can make comments like yours with complete impunity. It is obvious that some of you are compensated to do this. Most readers do not understand.

    If you want to talk about "bloated forecasts" why don't you bring some game. Say who you are. Show your own record. Otherwise, put a cork in it!
    Jun 29 10:22 PM | 18 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Economic Fireworks? [View article]
    greltmann -- I cannot give individual investment advice via the comments, as I'm sure you understand. With that in mind, here are two general principles that fit your situation:

    1) Do not take risks with money you need in a short time period. You should have a plan for the years starting 3 years from now and going to 7 or 8. It should mostly be in safe holdings, even if you cannot get a good return (unless you have other resources to tap).

    2) The spreads on junk bond funds versus Treasuries are very low. In some cases you may be taking stock-type risk for bond-type returns. There is the dual risk of rising rates and rising spreads.

    I emphasize that this is just general advice.

    Best wishes at this important time.

    Jeff
    Jun 29 07:50 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Economic Fireworks? [View article]
    loftyhgoal -- We did the same on our new car purchase. The weather was not conducive for shopping and test drives. We did order things online, but deferred some services.

    I don't want to blame everything on the weather, but it is pretty obvious that it had more than the normal effect. That said, some of the economic activity is lost forever.

    Heating bills and snow removal do count in the GDP. This is part of the strength in utilities and industrial production early in the year.

    Thanks for sharing your experience.

    Jeff
    Jun 29 07:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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