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Jeff Miller  

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  • Weighing The Week Ahead: A Focus On Europe? [View article]
    Mitchad2 -- Yes, I had our last week's discussion about the parlay in mind when I wrote this.

    I am pleased that the response has been measured so far.

    Thanks for your observations, and I also tend to side with Brian.

    Jeff
    Jan 25, 2015. 10:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: The Message From Fourth Quarter Earnings [View article]
    richjoy403 -- As you might guess, I considered the Gundlach presentation for inclusion this week. Maybe I see him and his advice as a bit more controversial than do you. In any case, many readers enjoy suggestions in the comments, so thanks for that.

    I also did not include the most recent Doug Kass laundry list of things to worry about. If you start with a conclusion, you can always find many bivariate charts to support it. None of these have well-reasoned causal relationships and the right controls to support them.

    Last night the announcer pointed out the Aaron Rodgers was 45-1 in winning games where he had a lead of 16 points or greater.....

    The "1871 issue" keeps popping up. I have written about it several times, but I am working on another take, perhaps with video.

    I have given several reasons for why this business cycle is different --- rapidly decline, slow recovery. It could go on for years in a plodding fashion.

    That's the best I can do in the comments, but I'll rejoin the theme in the future.

    Thanks again for the suggestion and the link.

    Jeff
    Jan 19, 2015. 09:43 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: The Message From Fourth Quarter Earnings [View article]
    moatfrog -- If you look at my annual preview piece, I think I was pretty clear in significant forecasts -- the market, sectors, and some specific stocks. In particular, I think the top sector (utilities) is dangerous and the bottom sector (energy) is attractive. I also mentioned some things to watch for.

    The main idea is that investors who focus on valuation measures that have worked for many decades should not be distracted when over-priced stocks become even more over-priced.

    What stocks and sectors do you like for next year?

    Jeff
    Jan 18, 2015. 07:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: The Message From Fourth Quarter Earnings [View article]
    GaltMachine -- I think I have been covering the decline in bond yields extensively over the last few weeks, including in my annual preview. I offered my hypothesis for why there is flattening in that part of the curve. Please also note the quant section this week.

    I don't really expect people to read everything I write, although I do try to avoid repetition. I also welcome additional points in the comments.

    To summarize, and as I have written, I think the long end is the result of a carry trade versus Europe and it could switch quickly. It somewhat reflects the term structure of rates. If the Fed started raising short-term rates and nothing else changed, we would see more flattening. Since I am all over this issue every week, I do not see it as a real surprise.

    It is too soon to worry about something that is a long leading indicator and has not even happened:)

    Jeff
    Jan 18, 2015. 07:16 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: The Message From Fourth Quarter Earnings [View article]
    BudH -- Thanks! The mechanics for links and charts require a lot of time, so I could assign this to someone else on my team. The problem is that the post would be delayed, since no one else works my hours:)

    Jeff
    Jan 18, 2015. 12:03 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: The Message From Fourth Quarter Earnings [View article]
    Mitchad2 -- You have several good points and questions. Let me focus on two. The optimistic and pessimistic takes on retail sales both represent valid viewpoints that are worth consideration. I often provide interesting ideas regardless of my own viewpoint. In this case, the number was not quite as bad as it seemed, but I am also disappointed at the improvement in spending power for the average consumer.

    As to "parlay" I do know what it means. Rightly or wrongly, I chose it intentionally. We shall see.

    Jeff
    Jan 18, 2015. 12:01 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jeff Miller Positions For 2015: Still Plenty Of Life In The 'Aging Bull' [View article]
    Cynical Rhino -- Right. Thanks for joining in.

    Jeff
    Jan 12, 2015. 09:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Everything's Fine. Just Keep Investing! [View article]
    If you don't like data starting in 1871, how can you endorse Shilller/CAPE long-term averages?

    I agree with you about trying to find the right data!
    Jan 12, 2015. 02:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jeff Miller Positions For 2015: Still Plenty Of Life In The 'Aging Bull' [View article]
    raising rusty -- You got to see a great game with a happy outcome! Commenting on individual stocks is not a good idea. I would do much more research if it were on one of my watch lists, and I would also consider the suitability for you. Having said this, the earnings are up about 30% over 5 years or so, or about 6% per year. The P/E is over 21, so expensive for that kind of growth. The dividend yield is only 2.5%. These metrics are all typical of utility stocks.

    Good luck with your investing and enjoy those Madison visits! I still get there and also the Fox River Valley on occasions.

    Jeff
    Jan 11, 2015. 08:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jeff Miller Positions For 2015: Still Plenty Of Life In The 'Aging Bull' [View article]
    G -

    Utility stocks get priced on a yield differential to long-term rates. If the rates go lower, as they did last year, the prices go higher, preserving the differential. If rates go higher, the utility price goes lower. There is no reason for it to rebound unless the company finds a new source of earnings or rates move lower.

    That is why I see the group as risky. If I am wrong about interest rates, the sector will continue to be OK.

    Make sense?

    Jeff
    Jan 10, 2015. 05:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jeff Miller Positions For 2015: Still Plenty Of Life In The 'Aging Bull' [View article]
    Robert Duval -- Concerning investors on the sidelines. The outflow from stocks to bonds went on for years. You are too impressed by a brief and inconsistent change. The direction should shift for years.

    I congratulate you on your wisdom and trading returns. You seem to have great skill. It is possible that my work puts me a little more in touch with average investors.....

    Jeff
    Jan 10, 2015. 02:09 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jeff Miller Positions For 2015: Still Plenty Of Life In The 'Aging Bull' [View article]
    Robert Duval -- More about bond investors.

    1) You are taking my comment about "hot money" and implying that I am calling it "dumb money." Not so! I cited a sophisticated arb strategy used by really smart people with lots of computer help. It is smart, but it can change quickly.

    2) I do not treat markets by treating them as single individuals. It is a mistake to do so, and I write on the topic fairly frequently. There are many reasons for investing in bonds. Some pension funds need low-risk duration for example. Those in wealth preservation mode should be very conservative. I have significant holdings in individual bonds for my clients.

    Jeff
    Jan 10, 2015. 02:07 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jeff Miller Positions For 2015: Still Plenty Of Life In The 'Aging Bull' [View article]
    Robert Duval -- Coal stocks? Right. But please note that I did not make this recommendation last year. Let see how it does in the time frame I have suggested -- 2015.

    Jeff
    Jan 10, 2015. 02:00 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jeff Miller Positions For 2015: Still Plenty Of Life In The 'Aging Bull' [View article]
    Left Banker -- My suggestion about sector selection for 2015 is something that I think will work right now -- because of the extended over-valuation of some sectors and under-valuation of others.

    I don't think I stated it as a general rule, and I certainly did not mean to.

    Thanks for giving me a chance to clarify.

    Jeff
    Jan 10, 2015. 01:59 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jeff Miller Positions For 2015: Still Plenty Of Life In The 'Aging Bull' [View article]
    Lakeaffect -- My recommendation about being politically agnostic emphasizes a focus on likely outcomes and what is market friendly. I see coalition building with a reach to marginal members of the other party as a key dynamic in the new Senate. I am especially encouraged by the apparently reduced chances of a government shutdown or a debt default. The market hates even the threat of these ideas.

    The process is not partisan, nor am I commenting on the merits of the final legislation. Here is a brief description of the principle: http://bit.ly/1DJSxYq

    If we succeed in getting some tax reform, for example, I think it will follow this process. And there will definitely be some completely left out.

    I should have known better than to cite a hot-button issue, even though it would be a great case study for a class in legislative behavior. I hope people will focus on the point of this example.

    Jeff
    Jan 10, 2015. 01:55 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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