Seeking Alpha

Jeff Miller

View as an RSS Feed
View Jeff Miller's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: What Is The Risk/Reward For Stocks? [View article]
    Thanks to everyone for contributing to a great discussion -- and especially also to those providing encouraging words.

    Jeff
    Mar 9 08:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: More Clarity About Employment? [View article]
    dancing diva -- The week containing the 12th of February is the payroll survey week. It was especially bad on the weather front.

    I expect the BLS to include some discussion of this, perhaps a basis for estimating the effects. Those that disbelieve data will reject it anyway.

    I agree that the controversy will continue.

    Jeff
    Mar 2 02:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: More Clarity About Employment? [View article]
    huthutho -- Thanks for the kind words.

    As usual, I watched the Sunday morning talk shows (via TIVO). Since Ukraine is not in NATO, there is no official defense commitment. The UN cannot act because of Russia's veto power on the Security Council.

    There is a range of economic and trade sanctions, especially related to banking. You are correct in noting that rhetoric is not enough!

    Jeff
    Mar 2 02:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: More Clarity About Employment? [View article]
    Thanks, Young!

    You always bring something interesting to the comments.

    Jeff
    Mar 2 01:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: More Clarity About Employment? [View article]
    Thanks richjoy403 ---

    I always do my prep work for the coming week, but I do not always feel like writing it. Knowing that people find it useful is encouraging.

    I appreciate the kind words from you, family investor, and others.

    Jeff
    Mar 2 01:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: More Clarity About Employment? [View article]
    JCCIII -- There is some information about Felix here, at the very end: http://bit.ly/1dc6NhE

    I send additional information to potential investors. I'll try to figure out a way to put some of that online.

    Thanks for your interest, and for joining in!

    Jeff
    Mar 2 01:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Does The Weakness In Housing Threaten The Economy And Stocks? [View article]
    Thanks for the encouraging comments. When I get behind on the schedule I always wonder whether to follow through. I am glad that readers found this useful.

    Jeff
    Feb 25 09:49 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The 'Mean Reversion' Focus Can Be A Costly Blunder [View article]
    Lawrence -- I am curious about your "movie." What do you think will lead to mean reversion? Do you have a time frame in mind? Why are you so confident that mean reversion can occur even if growth is modest?

    And finally, when is the last time that earnings fell substantially in the absence of a recession?

    Basically, I agree with you about comparing the total expected return of stocks with alternative investments.

    Jeff
    Feb 20 11:15 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The 'Mean Reversion' Focus Can Be A Costly Blunder [View article]
    juds12....... On the contrary. I suggest that we do follow historical precedent. Profit margins will be normal when growth resumes trend and employment is back on track.

    Sales and profits fall dramatically in a recession, which is why I devote a lot of energy to finding the very best recession forecasters.

    The reason it does not "feel" right is that the loud voices have stated their argument so often that it is accepted as conventional wisdom.

    As I said, it is often difficult to take a fresh perspective.

    Jeff
    Feb 20 10:58 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The 'Mean Reversion' Focus Can Be A Costly Blunder [View article]
    David - Most importantly, I am not contending that things are different. I am not joining those who think that profit margins are at a new level due to outsourcing or productivity, although there may be some increase from that.

    I expect margins to mean revert as the recovery continues. Despite the various programs, the output gap from potential GDP is still 6% or so in real terms, down from 7.5% in the recession. See DeLong: http://bit.ly/1nQwntW

    When the output gap closes we will have a world with unemployment at 5% or so and much higher consumption. We will see more capital investment by business. These are all signs of a healthy economy. The increase in competition for labor and developing new businesses will pressure profit margins.

    Put another way, things are not different this time. Margins are high because we have not had enough growth to restore competition. Anyone who contends that margins will mean revert without growth is the one saying "this time is different."

    Jeff
    Feb 20 10:53 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Is The Correction Over? [View article]
    Captain --- I agree with your comment. I might have put "correction" in quotes for that reason.

    Jeff
    Feb 16 09:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Is The Correction Over? [View article]
    Great Swami --

    Thanks for the kind words and especially about the comments. We have a good group of regulars who add value each week!

    Thanks for joining in.

    Jeff
    Feb 16 09:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Is The Correction Over? [View article]
    ant21b -- Since I apparently was not clear, let me emphasize that Georg's method is not forecasting a recession in 27 weeks. That is beyond the prediction horizon. Think of it as 27 weeks where the start of a recession is extremely unlikely.

    Recessions begin, by definition, with a business cycle peak. The very slow rebound from the large decline is the basic reason for the extended cycle.

    There is a lot more information if you follow the links to my recession series. http://bit.ly/VgZw6m

    Jeff
    Feb 16 01:18 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Is The Correction Over? [View article]
    vraykin -- I decide on a case-by-case basis. Since there are many candidates in the universe I follow, I do not mind losing a specific stock when it is called away. I have collected the premium as well as the stock move. The combination is usually about 4% in five or six weeks. I can afford to be patient and look for a new opportunity.

    If the stock is wildly undervalued and I expect a big move, I do not make it a part of this program. I just buy the stock in my "long" portfolio.

    With changing events and earnings my price targets for stocks change as well. I evaluate each new position based upon this information. It is possible to re-enter a stock at a higher price, but only if the fundamentals have improved.

    As you note, the process does have a way of taking you out of some stocks that have made surprisingly large moves. You may find that these drop back into your buy range.

    The only thing I would say about the ADP example is that your combined stock gain and premium was about 2%. I usually try to sell a call that is a bit farther out of the money. I am very fussy about entry points on new positions.

    There are many ways to make the strategy work, and you can have some fun doing it. The major point is to avoid buying over-valued stocks. I hope this is helpful.

    Jeff
    Feb 16 01:14 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Yellen Signal A Policy Change? [View article]
    Thomas - The short end of the curve is currently the easiest if we believe the Fed forward guidance -- and I do. Mortgages have a duration of about 7 years, so the 10-year note is a fair guide (although affected also by Fed MBS purchases). If I could put you to a great source on the movement in the ten-year, we could all just get rich from that! Even the top bond managers often disagree.

    I look at a variety of forecasts to see the economic consensus, which is as good as anything --- meaning not so good. The expectation of higher rates has been a multi-year story. My personal conclusion about that part of the curve moving higher relates to my expectation for better economic growth. Ultimately, growth and inflation are the big factors.

    Junk bonds got caught up in the quest for yield -- people reaching without much regard to risk. It is always good to ask whether you might as well buy stocks if taking the greater risk involved.

    I realize that I am not really answering your question about a favorite source, since there is no single place. The best I can do is suggest how to think about the problem as your seek a conclusion.

    Thanks for the kind words and your question.

    Jeff
    Feb 10 08:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
1,504 Comments
2,418 Likes