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Jeff Miller  

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  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For An Upside Breakout? [View article]
    TeachEnglish --- Humor?


    Jeff
    Apr 29, 2015. 03:30 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: The Start Of An 'Earnings Recession'? [View article]
    18214212 -- My titles are (almost) always questions, representing what I expect to dominate media discussion in the week ahead. These forecasts have been quite accurate, as a check of the record will show.

    Many times the worries prove incorrect, so the pundits look for the next story -- just as we have seen here.

    If you want to find someone switching around, look to those who have been calling (each week) for a correction!

    Jeff
    Apr 27, 2015. 09:16 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For An Upside Breakout? [View article]
    Thanks to everyone offering encouragement and also to those who help make the comments a great weekly discussion.

    I read and appreciate every comment and welcome all viewpoints.

    Jeff
    Apr 26, 2015. 07:31 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For An Upside Breakout? [View article]
    rcpatrick -- Thanks for the encouragement and especially for noting that I try to include a little humor. Some weeks it is difficult to do, but I would not spend so much time on this if I couldn't have ANY fun along the way.

    Jeff
    Apr 26, 2015. 07:29 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For An Upside Breakout? [View article]
    DWD -- It is a good joke and thanks for the kind words.

    It is always difficult to look past well-publicized problems. We always have them.

    Jeff
    Apr 26, 2015. 07:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For An Upside Breakout? [View article]
    James -- the top and bottom line comment does have some truth in past years -- especially earnings beats on reduced expectations. What I was trying to emphasize, and maybe not doing it very well, is that the tendency is even more pronounced in the current earnings season.

    As to the Brooking study -- at this point it is just a study of demographics, but many have pointed to those shifts as factors in employment change and unemployment rates.

    Good question. Current unemployment among young minority workers is higher than for non-minorities. It also varies with education, which is (unfortunately) related.

    Jeff
    Apr 26, 2015. 07:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For An Upside Breakout? [View article]
    avolossov -- I don't like to use weather (or anything else) as an excuse for data. Here in Chicago it was the 2nd coldest February and third snowiest in all of history. People were not taking cars for test drives or shopping for houses.

    Your observation and questions are the right ones.

    Jeff
    Apr 26, 2015. 07:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For An Upside Breakout? [View article]
    Mitchad2 -- To be clear he called shorting the German 10 year the trade of a lifetime. As a practical matter, it is difficult for the average investor to take advantage of this.

    Rick Santelli also noted that those rates could go even further into negative territory!!

    Jeff
    Apr 26, 2015. 07:13 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For An Upside Breakout? [View article]
    Tony -- Congratulations on being willing to buy (or hold) at a time when fear was rampant.

    Jeff
    Apr 26, 2015. 07:11 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: A Geopolitical Risk To U.S. Stocks? [View article]
    6034700 -- My point was to highlight the fine work of Carnevale, who happens to use Blodget as a starting point.

    Henry Blodget regularly states that the market is extremely overvalued but that he is fully invested. I think he needs a good quant guy on his team! I missed the Apple story....

    Jeff
    Apr 19, 2015. 11:44 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: A Geopolitical Risk To U.S. Stocks? [View article]
    cfetrader --- Sure, your weekly comments have made your position quite clear. Your viewpoint is most welcome. As to waiting for a major dip before changing your stance, I have been hearing that for several years:)

    Jeff
    Apr 19, 2015. 11:40 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: A Geopolitical Risk To U.S. Stocks? [View article]
    Thanks for this important correction.

    Jeff
    Apr 19, 2015. 11:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: The Start Of An 'Earnings Recession'? [View article]
    Lots of comics this week!

    Enjoying:)

    Jeff
    Apr 15, 2015. 09:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: The Start Of An 'Earnings Recession'? [View article]
    6034700 -- You raise some interesting points:

    About Rosenberg's career path and switch to a bullish view: You are accurate in describing how he built his following, and I agree that he was wrong on the economy for years. His loyal followers would counter that he made them money in bonds rather than stocks. Barry Ritholtz seems to have the inside story behind his move and describes it here: http://bit.ly/1hnopd9

    Whose work I should cite and/or feature: In general, I use content as my guide, not who is saying something. If I never quoted people with whom I disagree (or have disagreed some time in the past) I would have little content. If I lost a reader every time I quoted someone they did not like, I would soon have no readers. Everyone has their preferences, and they differ. It is easier to write a permabull or permabear blog. You can keep a constant cast of favorites!

    Why Rosenberg: I like to highlight those who have changed opinions to reflect changing data -- even if they are a bit late to the party! I tried to make this clear with my little joke about the Mauldin conference, where Rosenberg is still on the program --- so far! Adam Parker is another recent example.

    Why this theme: I bring up the 'bull market does not die of old age' theme every few weeks, because it is the source of many investor losses. I have had readers who have been on the sidelines for years waiting for an entry point. Most should have at least some stock exposure in a balanced portfolio.

    And finally, Rosenberg's reasoning was good. Maybe it will help a few of his old fans take a fresh perspective.

    I hope this helps to explain how I choose what to include. There is a method, and I hope you don't quit reading. Maybe you can just skip that paragraph!!

    Thanks for a thoughtful and provocative comment.

    Jeff
    Apr 12, 2015. 12:03 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: The Start Of An 'Earnings Recession'? [View article]
    rosenose -- I agree about Chuck's DLR article, which I mentioned last week. I am happy to see you cite it again. I bought it for some clients.

    GE is part of our enhanced yield program. The underlying stocks are stodgier, but pay reasonable dividends and represent a good platform for selling near-term calls. It would not qualify for our more aggressive programs.

    Thanks for joining in once again!

    Jeff
    Apr 12, 2015. 11:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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