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Jeff Miller

 
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  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Is The Fed Behind The Curve? [View article]
    you need to look at a log scale to get a fair comparison for percentage movements. I have posted this several times, but I'll try to do it again.

    M2 growth has been barely adequate, despite the increase in M1. It would not take much to reduce M1, but the question is the level of reserves sought by banks.

    One of my frequent sources, Bob McTeer -- former Dallas Fed President -- says that the low velocity reflects bank preferences for the safety of excess reserves. He explains that had the Fed not provided the larger monetary base, that M2 would actually be declining and threatening another recession.

    This is much more complicated than the story you might be seeing at some famous conspiracy sites ....

    Jeff
    Jun 22 10:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Is The Fed Behind The Curve? [View article]
    golfin329-- M2 is rising, but a little lower than the rate from the last 10 years. The monetary base is growing at a much larger rate. M2 and MZM? Not so much.

    This will change, and the Fed had better be prepared to act quickly!

    Jeff
    Jun 22 09:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Is The Fed Behind The Curve? [View article]
    Mitchad2 -- I did not catch that segment, but I will now take another look.

    My sense is that CNBC folks get a lot of twitter and email feedback, and it tends to run one way. Since I have TIVO running, I can check this out. Normally (and for good reason) I ignore Dent.

    Thanks for pointing this out.

    Jeff
    Jun 22 08:04 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Is The Fed Behind The Curve? [View article]
    avolossov -- Good work in analyzing this.

    You see the reason that I follow both recession indicators (early but sloppy timing) and the SLFSI (a recognition of risk, but not market timing).

    They are doing different things, and I should probably write about that. The SLFSI did not exactly "predict" Lehman, but there was some indication in the data. This is why my team's research identified 1.1 as the point where we should be cutting down size.

    Thanks for taking a deeper look. Let me pose the question: At what point would you acknowledge higher risk?

    And remember, the biggest rewards come to those taking the biggest risk, so that is not the question.

    Jeff
    Jun 22 08:01 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Is The Fed Behind The Curve? [View article]
    daro -- sorry I was not clearer on the timing statement. The big three to monitor?

    Housing, capex, increase in M2. Probably grist for a new post.

    Your comment on real estate and rates is spot on -- something we should watch.

    Jeff
    Jun 22 07:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Is The Fed Behind The Curve? [View article]
    Nolesince87 -- It is usually a waste of time to discuss stuff like this with anonymous folks who write comments, but you have joined in for a number of years. I'll give it one try.

    You are offering up your personal recollections about an entire body of work, over 1000 articles spanning about nine years. It is not a fair characterization. Your comments about the market (at least the ones you make on my articles) have been far off. You called a market top a year ago, for example.

    It is OK to make a wrong call, but not OK to talk about motives. The last time you did this you suggested that I was one who benefited from the Fed and that made me a perma-bull. In fact, I manage five different programs. The long-only part of my overall portfolio is much smaller than the bonds, enhanced yield, and trading segments. A sideways market, or even gentle downside, would actually be best for me personally.

    Investment managers are not stock salesmen. We benefit only if we help clients find suitable programs and take risk of the right size. Since 2008 there has been greater interest in market timing. I developed the recession forecasting theme and also the SLFSI to address those concerns. I will react to those indicators when needed -- and both would have worked well in 2008.

    My sense is that you blame too much on the Fed and I think the lesson is more nuanced. In 2008, I wrote a lot about FAS 157 and toxic assets, what Obama should do, etc. If we sat down with a cup of coffee or a refreshing malt beverage we might enjoy trading some stories.

    Meanwhile, the kind of comment you are making is unfair and inappropriate. Go back and look at what you wrote when I did the "halfway update" on my Dow 20K prediction.....

    That's all I'm going to say in the comments.

    Jeff
    Jun 22 05:37 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Is The Fed Behind The Curve? [View article]
    Stevo56 -- Their website provides more history and discussion of methodology. The index was created after the Great Recession, so we did not have it available in real time. It does not anticipate economic or market events as well as the recession indicators I follow, but it does highlight risk of other sorts. These risks show up in credit markets.

    At one point we did some research and decided that 1.1 was an important level to start getting concerned. It has reached that range once in the real-time history of the indicator, and then it pulled back.

    Having an objective risk measure makes it easier to make unemotional decisions.

    And I'm glad you enjoyed the article, but most don't want to revisit those econ classes!

    Jeff
    Jun 22 04:50 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Is The Fed Behind The Curve? [View article]
    Cautious Investor -- The question of possible structural employment change among the long-term unemployed is certainly crucial. You correctly note the internal debate.

    Usually this means that both sides are partly right. Some unemployed leave the labor force for good. Others might be coaxed back if things got attractive. Until we see some wage pressure, it seems premature to get too worried about this.

    Good points -- as always.

    Jeff
    Jun 22 04:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Is The Fed Behind The Curve? [View article]
    daro - It is just a personal estimate of how fast various indicators might change. And I mean more normal levels of rates. The first increase and plenty of balance sheet unwinding will come before the end of 2015. We'll get to enjoy another year of warnings about that as well.

    What do you think?

    Jeff
    Jun 22 04:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: What Does The Iraq Conflict Mean For Markets? [View article]
    moatfrog -- I know that you understand what I do in the weekly perspective post. WTWA is a snapshot of what is happening as of Saturday night. I cannot do breaking news, but I can highlight what to watch and the best sources.

    As I noted, the worst case sends oil up about $20.

    To summarize, I think we all share the concern and the need to monitor, which is why I chose it as this week's theme.

    As always, thanks for joining in.

    Jeff
    Jun 16 09:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: What Does The Iraq Conflict Mean For Markets? [View article]
    suew -- I have written some, but there is another "Jeff Miller" who is quite visible for his bridge writing.

    Say "hello" if we are ever at the same tournament:)

    Jeff
    Jun 16 02:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: What Does The Iraq Conflict Mean For Markets? [View article]
    Whoops! Thanks for noting. This is probably about as bad as the caddy that let his golfer hit the wrong ball!

    Jeff
    Jun 15 11:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For A Market Breakout? [View article]
    daro -- Thanks for amplifying.

    Jeff
    Jun 10 08:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For A Market Breakout? [View article]
    Daro -- Your reaction mirrors what most people said a couple of weeks ago when the Zillow report came out on a slow news day. You are apparently in good company and I have the minority view -- a typical stance for me.

    This is not an either/or question. Like most economic problems, it is a distribution. Of course there are still people who cannot or will not sell. The problem is better -- much better-- than it was before, and things are still improving.

    As you know, I recommend an approach to investing that embraces problems as long as we can measure improvement. If you wait until it is solved to everyone's satisfaction, it will be fully priced into the market.

    I am not long homebuilder stocks, but the economic drag from this sector has been reduced.

    At what level of underwater homes would your opinion change?

    Jeff
    Jun 9 10:17 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For A Market Breakout? [View article]
    Thanks to everyone who is commenting. I love to see a vibrant discussion.

    It is a lot of work to pull the threads together with all of the links, so I appreciate those who enjoy and provide feedback. It is nice to know that the effort is helpful for some investors.

    Jeff
    Jun 8 09:30 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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