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Jeff Miller  

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  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will The Interest Rate Spike Pressure Stock Prices? [View article]
    18214212 -- My statement about initial claims is a simple fact based upon correlations. Let us consider your logic, which is quite good.

    Jobless claims should be in the context of the labor force size - but the correlation is strong. My biggest complaint is that this shows only the job losses, not the new jobs created. That is why I like to include ISM and consumer confidence in analyzing labor market. Both of these are softening.

    So perhaps employment gains are a bit overstated. We have solid evidence that people are not rushing to spend the gasoline savings.

    I hope that my material makes it clear -- this is a continuing sluggish recovery, but that means it might last longer.

    Great comment and question.

    Jeff
    May 17, 2015. 08:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will The Interest Rate Spike Pressure Stock Prices? [View article]
    SanDiego -- I collect material all week and then parse on Saturday, basically spending all day.

    Finding the theme is the biggest challenge, but also most rewarding for me -- and I hope for others.

    Thanks!

    Jeff
    May 17, 2015. 08:27 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will The Interest Rate Spike Pressure Stock Prices? [View article]
    anonymoose -- We have fewer companies that we like on our screens, but we are very strict about entries. There are plenty that are at fair value with good prospects.

    You need to be cautious about the sectors with valuations that are very high -- mostly those that did well last year.

    Thanks for joining in!

    Jeff
    May 17, 2015. 08:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will The Interest Rate Spike Pressure Stock Prices? [View article]
    GaltMachine -- I had the LTCM crisis in mind as I wrote this. I need to write something more on the carry trade, but I wanted to get the concept out for consideration in a timely fashion.

    We do not know how many are in this trade, but the leverage ratios and systemic risk do not rate to be like 1998. Also, the Treasuries are not the "funding currency" on this one. The funds in those days were long everything else and short the instrument where a flight to quality would take place.

    Thanks for bringing this out.

    Jeff
    May 17, 2015. 08:21 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Can Employment News Change The Fed's Course? [View article]
    Your comments are always interesting. Maybe I got the wrong impression. So many people attribute everything to the Fed.

    Thanks again for joining in.

    Jeff
    May 5, 2015. 03:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Can Employment News Change The Fed's Course? [View article]
    18214212 -- If you look at long-term trends you will see that the economy (measured by the Big Four which I frequently cite), earnings and forward earnings, and stock prices have all climbed together since 2009.

    You have mentioned a few specific data points with an opposite reaction. Those trying to explain everything via Fed policy have this backwards interpretation. This facile "explanation" changes over time. It has been more than a year since the Fed started tapering QE purchases, and they have now ended altogether. So the "explanation" now switches to ZIRP.

    Thanks for joining in, but I think you will eventually be on the wrong side as this plays out.

    Jeff
    May 5, 2015. 12:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Can Employment News Change The Fed's Course? [View article]
    bigisbetter -- Thanks! I try to tee it up every week. I always think about the market and I always have a plan. I do not always feel like writing it down!

    Jeff
    May 4, 2015. 10:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Can Employment News Change The Fed's Course? [View article]
    sawdoctor -- Home prices are an indicator that people might criticize either way. I take the simple view that increasing home prices reflect a healthy market and an attractive purchase. I understand that some think this means homes are less affordable. These folks seem to find the negative side of any information about housing.

    Do you think higher prices are a negative?

    Jeff
    May 4, 2015. 10:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For An Upside Breakout? [View article]
    TeachEnglish --- Humor?


    Jeff
    Apr 29, 2015. 03:30 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: The Start Of An 'Earnings Recession'? [View article]
    18214212 -- My titles are (almost) always questions, representing what I expect to dominate media discussion in the week ahead. These forecasts have been quite accurate, as a check of the record will show.

    Many times the worries prove incorrect, so the pundits look for the next story -- just as we have seen here.

    If you want to find someone switching around, look to those who have been calling (each week) for a correction!

    Jeff
    Apr 27, 2015. 09:16 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For An Upside Breakout? [View article]
    Thanks to everyone offering encouragement and also to those who help make the comments a great weekly discussion.

    I read and appreciate every comment and welcome all viewpoints.

    Jeff
    Apr 26, 2015. 07:31 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For An Upside Breakout? [View article]
    rcpatrick -- Thanks for the encouragement and especially for noting that I try to include a little humor. Some weeks it is difficult to do, but I would not spend so much time on this if I couldn't have ANY fun along the way.

    Jeff
    Apr 26, 2015. 07:29 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For An Upside Breakout? [View article]
    DWD -- It is a good joke and thanks for the kind words.

    It is always difficult to look past well-publicized problems. We always have them.

    Jeff
    Apr 26, 2015. 07:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For An Upside Breakout? [View article]
    James -- the top and bottom line comment does have some truth in past years -- especially earnings beats on reduced expectations. What I was trying to emphasize, and maybe not doing it very well, is that the tendency is even more pronounced in the current earnings season.

    As to the Brooking study -- at this point it is just a study of demographics, but many have pointed to those shifts as factors in employment change and unemployment rates.

    Good question. Current unemployment among young minority workers is higher than for non-minorities. It also varies with education, which is (unfortunately) related.

    Jeff
    Apr 26, 2015. 07:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For An Upside Breakout? [View article]
    avolossov -- I don't like to use weather (or anything else) as an excuse for data. Here in Chicago it was the 2nd coldest February and third snowiest in all of history. People were not taking cars for test drives or shopping for houses.

    Your observation and questions are the right ones.

    Jeff
    Apr 26, 2015. 07:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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