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Jeff Miller  

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  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For The 'January Effect'? [View article]
    Jim -- I have not seen data on the first part of your objection, but I am interested if you have a link.

    As you know, I do not regard markets as efficient, but it seems like you are stretching the normal definition of market timing. I am trying to warn against "all-in" or "all-out" decisions based upon some indicator. Instead, it is better to pick a stock allocation that reflects your personal situation. More here: http://bit.ly/1rZ4jgb

    Thanks for joining in. It is fine to disagree. Maybe I have clarified for some.

    Jeff
    Jan 5, 2015. 06:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For The 'January Effect'? [View article]
    Jack -- I agree that the economy is fine. The last two weeks have been a bit soft, and my commentary always reviews the past week and the week ahead. Many of the other sources, which cover a wide range of viewpoints, are the most interesting of what I read.

    In the quant section I have been tracking the SLFSI for years. I think I was an early proponent of this. It includes plenty of credit data, so I agree with that point as well.

    Jeff
    Jan 5, 2015. 11:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For The 'January Effect'? [View article]
    brad77 -- -Yes, you could make the same argument about missing the worst days. The general point is the false attraction of market timing.

    As to the motives of brokerage firms, I hear this argument a lot. It helps to look at the business model. Most firms do not profit by "keeping people in the market." Some make money from commissions. Others from helping with the right asset allocation in a wrap account. The firm in question offers many different asset choices and has no particular reason to emphasize stocks.

    Just a thought...

    Jeff
    Jan 4, 2015. 07:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For The 'January Effect'? [View article]
    Mitchad2 -- The article is written by a contributor, not their main blogger. I don't think they are selling anything special with this post.

    It is difficult to disagree with chartists, mostly because there is no good way to test the methods as we do in regular trading systems. I am not so sure about the art if different experts can see different things in the same chart. what I liked about this was the identification of standard signals which did not work out -- evidence we do not usually see. It is not as obvious as the 1929 chart.

    Maybe I should insist that the Silver Bullet go to refutation of a specific claim.

    Jeff
    Jan 4, 2015. 07:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For The 'January Effect'? [View article]
    Mitchad2 -- Brian is always worth reading. I saw his message this week as a bit mixed. The quarterly "bump" was expected, but he is still concerned about declining estimates in energy.

    I agree with you that some skepticism seems built in.

    Jeff
    Jan 4, 2015. 07:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For The 'January Effect'? [View article]
    crademan -- I hope people take the time to read and remember how to sound like an expert!

    Jeff
    Jan 4, 2015. 07:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For The 'January Effect'? [View article]
    TimmiesRegular -- I am delighted to hear that things are fine in Canada! I gave a question mark to the heading for a reason. Whatever the news might be, everyone is in a rush to find both the best and worst things implied. I appreciate the discussion about effects on Canada.

    Thanks for joining in.

    Jeff
    Jan 4, 2015. 07:39 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For The 'January Effect'? [View article]
    jj1937 -- Heh, heh. Seeking Alpha does a great job on the series and I always give it special effort. I could have finished it this weekend and skipped WTWA, but I wanted to do both.

    And I appreciate your humor!

    Jeff
    Jan 4, 2015. 07:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2014 In Review: Hot Or Not? [View article]
    Mitchad2 -- That is why I watch CNBC using TIVO and mute:) You have the right idea!

    Jeff
    Jan 2, 2015. 10:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 2014 In Review: Hot Or Not? [View article]
    My first position description (HS after hours) was stockboy/cleanup/clerk. I learned about jewelry and how to use a broom and a squeegee.
    Jan 2, 2015. 09:58 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2014 In Review: Best Of The Silver Bullet Awards [View article]
    I am delighted that people are enjoying this, but the real credit goes to the award winners:)

    Jeff
    Dec 30, 2014. 08:15 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Pundit Forecasts For 2015 [View article]
    nsethi99990- Thanks! I appreciate your comment (first on SA-- welcome) as well as those of others who provided some year-end encouragement.

    Happy Holidays to all of my readers. I'll have my annual preview out in about two weeks.

    Jeff
    Dec 23, 2014. 02:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Pundit Forecasts For 2015 [View article]
    Doug -- My solution is a combination of TIVO and the "mute" button. When I see something interesting, I turn the mute off and scroll back.

    and Happy Holidays to you as well.

    Jeff
    Dec 22, 2014. 09:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Pundit Forecasts For 2015 [View article]
    Petrarch - I try to examine all viewpoints when framing the question, as well as citing conflicting takes on evidence when that is relevant.

    I don't agree with Schiff that the Fed caused the oil price crash, for example, but I included the viewpoint.

    I hate to think that I might lose a reader in the first few paragraphs:)

    Make sense?

    Jeff
    Dec 22, 2014. 09:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Pundit Forecasts For 2015 [View article]
    sethmcs -- Selling at the start of the quiet period allows you to enjoy the time decay of the next two weeks. Buying options at or near the end of the period is a good strategy for those wanting leveraged exposure with defined risk.

    I think we are agreeing, but maybe I was not clear enough. I tend to focus on the covered all approach and near-term expirations with plenty of time decay.

    I hope this explains better.

    Jeff
    Dec 21, 2014. 03:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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