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Jeff Miller  

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  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Pundit Forecasts For 2015 [View article]
    sethmcs -- Selling at the start of the quiet period allows you to enjoy the time decay of the next two weeks. Buying options at or near the end of the period is a good strategy for those wanting leveraged exposure with defined risk.

    I think we are agreeing, but maybe I was not clear enough. I tend to focus on the covered all approach and near-term expirations with plenty of time decay.

    I hope this explains better.

    Jeff
    Dec 21, 2014. 03:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Pundit Forecasts For 2015 [View article]
    MotorD1212 -- Thanks for the kind words. I'll try to say more about oil supply and demand and the implications in my annual preview.

    Jeff
    Dec 21, 2014. 02:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Pundit Forecasts For 2015 [View article]
    CautiousInvestor -- I was going to comment a little more on the unusual market action, but that is not my main purpose.

    The moves get exaggerated as they get a bit large. Those who are short options that they expected to go out worthless are suddenly faced with significant losses. It seemed to be at work in both directions.

    As always, thanks for joining in.

    Jeff
    Dec 21, 2014. 02:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Pundit Forecasts For 2015 [View article]
    cfetrader -- Thanks to you and to everyone who has provided encouragement. It is nice to know that these posts are helpful to some making investment decisions.

    Jeff
    Dec 21, 2014. 02:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Pundit Forecasts For 2015 [View article]
    bbro -- Bob Dieli did I similar analysis for his clients this week. I'll see if I can get him to post some of it.

    Good point, and thanks.

    Jeff
    Dec 21, 2014. 02:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Crashing Energy Prices Change The Fed's Course? [View article]
    z2blackdogs -- Thanks! That is exactly my goal. I am fortunate to have a great community of readers who provide excellent comments each week. It is very encouraging.

    Jeff
    Dec 14, 2014. 11:52 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Crashing Energy Prices Change The Fed's Course? [View article]
    Rich W -- The insider trading issue is an old one, with strong opinions on both sides. I agree with you, but I can see the argument.

    I agree about investment banks and sanctions -- good point.

    Jeff
    Dec 14, 2014. 09:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crucial Facts About Energy Stocks [View article]
    Michael -- I certainly do not intend that dichotomy. Punditry is rampant!

    The difference between what I do and what you see on TV relates to claims. I do not claim to be an expert on everything, but I am good at a few things, including finding the best experts and sources. I do not have my own economic model, for example, so I do not do economic forecasting.

    A key point here is that there is a lot of uninformed and confident speculation masquerading as expertise.

    I hope that clarifies -- and yes, we are all pundits:)

    Jeff
    Dec 14, 2014. 09:12 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Crashing Energy Prices Change The Fed's Course? [View article]
    SKS1586 -- You appreciate that questions are important. We must all figure out how to answer them, although the final one had a rhetorical quality.

    Thanks for hour kind words and for your comment.

    Jeff
    Dec 14, 2014. 04:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Crashing Energy Prices Change The Fed's Course? [View article]
    CautiousInvestor -- Ah, yes. The briefcase indicator:)

    Before that you had to watch the daily open market operations, note the interest rate at the time they happened, and make inferences about the policy implied.

    And that was AFTER the decision!

    Thanks for this observation -- worth a smile.

    Jeff
    Dec 14, 2014. 04:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crucial Facts About Energy Stocks [View article]
    Thanks to everyone for reading and contributing some great comments. It is always rewarding when I can manage to spark a discussion with representation from various viewpoints.

    I also appreciate making some new friends. I wish that I could make some more specific replies, but it has been a hectic week. I did read and enjoy everything.

    Jeff
    Dec 12, 2014. 01:20 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keeping Investors Scared Witless [View article]
    Bart -- I do not mean to ignore questions, but sometimes it is difficult to make a meaningful and polite reply -- which I always try to do.

    You say that you often disagree with me, and kindly note that you enjoy reading. As you might expect, I do not agree with your general hypothesis or your conclusion.

    Long ago I decided that it was not effective to engage in a debate about such points in the comments. I do try to note interesting questions for future discussion. I have to take up the topics one chart at a time.

    Meanwhile, thanks for reading and for adding your thoughts.

    Jeff
    Dec 6, 2014. 12:07 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For Digestion? [View article]
    Phil -- Yes, the trade balance aspect of GDP growth (including oil) bears watching. The stronger dollar is also a factor there, as I note frequently.

    Retail sales and personal consumption are definitely important indicators. The 7% decline report is from one source that does not have a good track record. That's why I track such a wide range of indicators.

    The health care and biotech theme is interesting and I agree that it will get better.

    Interesting ideas --thanks.

    Jeff
    Dec 1, 2014. 11:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For Digestion? [View article]
    rndog and Paul --

    rndog (perhaps knowing my past style) has it right. I sometimes cite trading in a stock or sector as the worst thing happening that week.

    As the overall theme shows, I do believe that lower energy prices have a positive side for many companies as well as consumers.

    Sorry to be unclear, and thanks for the comments!

    Jeff
    Nov 30, 2014. 08:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For Digestion? [View article]
    Many good comments today. I am glad that people found the items to be interesting, and I'm sorry that I could not engage as much as usual.

    Comments on the chart are much better than the uncritical reception it got from the overall community.

    Thanks to all.

    Jeff
    Nov 30, 2014. 08:56 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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