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Jeff Miller

 
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  • Weighing The Week Ahead: More Clarity From The Market Message? [View article]
    Rich -- When I begin an article by saying that the message is confused and inconsistent, and I show you three illustrative viewpoints, why would you pick one and act like it is my viewpoint? All you have done is to illustrate my point, that investors with a strong viewpoint seek confirmation in the message that suits them and criticize the others.

    Stocks are certainly an imperfect leading economic indicator, usually because of recessions. It works both ways, with stocks predicting too many recessions and missing others. FWIW, the recession indicators I recommend worked nicely in both 2000 and 2007.

    As to complacency, I am writing a separate piece on this so i won't go into detail in the comments. My main point (which I thought was clear) is the error of attributing the characteristics of a single human to a market. The market action represents the intersection of supply and demand -- two different distributions of humans. Describing this complex interaction with a term like complacency is too simplistic to be helpful.

    Jeff
    Jun 1 12:32 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Sluggish Housing Growth Derail The Economy? [View article]
    9825951 -- This is an important question, and I'll answer it in two parts.

    First -- I think the student loans are a good investment. The repayment can be planned and managed. It is normal to have more investment in education when employment is tighter.

    Second -- The housing effect is quite real, but perhaps not as dramatic as the overall figures suggest. Parents hold some of the loans and they might also help with the first homes.

    It does affect first-time buyers, many of whom are choosing to rent. I also know recent grads who get a job and then buy a home. You probably do as well.

    I don't know about you, but I had student loans at the time I bought my first home, and I did not put 20% down.....

    Jeff
    May 26 07:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Sluggish Housing Growth Derail The Economy? [View article]
    Got That Swing -- It is part of the current advice if you follow the links. I wrote about interest rates last week, showed in that link as well. Like many, I expect the rates to move higher. That has not changed, but my reasons are different. Some are worried about "tapering." I just think the economy will improve and rates will normalize.

    So no change in the general outlook, but I clearly expected it to happen sooner and that has been wrong.

    Good question..

    Jeff
    May 26 07:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Sluggish Housing Growth Derail The Economy? [View article]
    Mitchad2 -- Thanks for your constructive observations and also for sharing your strategy. Others would do well to consider it.

    I apologize for the error on the link to Gilmartin's piece. Here it is: http://bit.ly/1nNyC2F

    Thanks again,

    Jeff
    May 26 07:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Sluggish Housing Growth Derail The Economy? [View article]
    adam22164 -- I agree, and that is why I used the example. If you had to make a list of the five most powerful people in government, the Fed Chair would be included.

    If you had to list the top women who have achieved important "firsts" you would have to include Yellen.

    It is something that we would expect everyone to know.

    However -- most people cannot name their own Congressman, and that has been true for decades. They are lucky to name one Senator. They can name more of the seven dwarfs than the Supreme Court justices....

    Jeff
    May 26 07:42 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Sluggish Housing Growth Derail The Economy? [View article]
    Byloe Enhold -- I always made it a point to monitor popular culture and update examples in my lectures. Somehow, it seemed easier back then, so I understand exactly what you are saying.

    I really enjoyed your comment:)

    Jeff
    May 26 07:39 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is This The Next 10 Years Of The Dow Jones Industrial Average? [View article]
    Thanks for citing my piece and for your first-rate explanation of the problem.

    We study "degrees of freedom" in beginning stat classes, but people still use ten variables to "predict" ten past recessions --- etc.

    That is an extreme case, of course, but you have explained the point. Sadly, some of the most popular and credentialed opinion leaders claim excessive predictive power from complex models.
    May 26 07:36 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Sluggish Housing Growth Derail The Economy? [View article]
    bbro -- You always have an interesting indicator or two to add. Thanks, once again, for joining in!

    Jeff
    May 25 11:29 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Sluggish Housing Growth Derail The Economy? [View article]
    Byloe Enhold -- That is a great story and a good link for me to bookmark.

    Thanks!

    Jeff
    May 25 11:29 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Sluggish Housing Growth Derail The Economy? [View article]
    Mrnomad -- I agree. I was trying to get at the fact that people focus on the level rather than the change. In this summary piece I try to highlight things and provide links. The Forbes link shows that the underwater rate was 19.4% a year ago as opposed to 18.8% now. The improvement was more dramatic in 2012.

    Your point is accurate. Journalists could write the same story every year. The number will always seem alarmingly high despite improvement.

    Jeff
    May 25 11:26 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Sluggish Housing Growth Derail The Economy? [View article]
    macombet --- The yield curve inversion is part of most strong recession forecasting methods. It actually gives a lot of warning, even leaning to a possible "false positive."

    Thanks for your kind words, and good luck with your stock picking.

    Jeff
    May 25 11:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Sound Of Silence [View article]
    Jaysan -- I just moved the blog to a new site and format. I am still working with my developer on various issues, including the date format and display. Eventually the new location will be much better, but right now there are some growing pains.

    Thanks,

    Jeff
    May 23 12:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Sound Of Silence [View article]
    Scrying Biotech -- I'm sure you know that I am not the one to choose Tyler Durden as the symbol, so I assume you are injecting some much-needed humor!

    Thanks,

    Jeff
    May 23 10:01 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Sound Of Silence [View article]
    cfetrader -- There are many ways to make money through investing and trading. You have a method which you have tested to your own satisfaction.

    I wish you well -- but not necessarily on the current trade.

    Jeff
    May 23 09:58 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Sound Of Silence [View article]
    ValueinvestorEU -- Perhaps you don't realize it, but you are building a straw man to knock down. I did not say anything about "mindlessly bullish" nor did I recommend buying overpriced stocks or sectors.

    If you follow my posts, you will see that I adjust my own perspective according to the data -- especially risk and the SLFSI -- as well as our short-term trading indicators. Since there is little recession risk, we are in an extended economic (and market) cycle.

    I recommend that readers ignore your appeal to your list of authorities. It is easy to line up long-timer experts on either side of the market at any time.

    You really need to think for yourself, making sure that the specific stock picks and overall asset allocation are right for your situation. Instead, many investors (you?) are caught up in bogus warnings of the sort I describe here.

    Jeff
    May 23 09:55 AM | 41 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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