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Jeff Miller  

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  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will The Fed Disappoint Markets? [View article]
    AIP -- Johnson also links to the WSJ http://on.wsj.com/TIVliP where they cite a report by Ray Stone of Stone and McCarthy -- a strong research firm.

    Stone discusses the revision pattern for August. The BLS does a good job with seasonal adjustments, but each year is a little different. Comparing year-over-year is an alternative, but then you have two chances for something unusual (starting and ending points). Using the 3-mo moving average as Johnson does addresses that, but reduces sensitivity.

    Revisions come mostly from late-reporting firms. There could be a pattern if government is faster than business in some months.

    I am working on this problem, and thanks for the link.

    Jeff
    Sep 10, 2012. 09:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will The Fed Disappoint Markets? [View article]
    CautiousInvestor -- Here is another article on the topic. Thanks for providing useful link.

    http://read.bi/P2LGRd

    Jeff
    Sep 9, 2012. 06:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will The Fed Disappoint Markets? [View article]
    daro -- On the German Court decision, the 80% was the reluctant guess of CNBC's correspondent on this subject - -one who has been bearish and skeptical for weeks, as well as quite opinionated.

    But I would not rely just on her, especially without reasons. The dramatic decline in ten-year yields as well as the timing of Draghi's announcement suggests that some have advance information. http://bit.ly/NUbeDD

    I do not want to imply any false precision here, but I also try not to dodge important questions. My expertise does not extend to German Constitutional law! This is just my interpretation of the best evidence I see --- especially the market reaction last week in 10-year yields.

    Jeff
    Sep 9, 2012. 12:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will The Fed Disappoint Markets? [View article]
    GaltMachine -- the confidence interval for the household survey is +/- 280,000. And that only reflects sampling error. This is why we cannot make too much out of a decline of -119,000 on the household survey.

    Earlier this year is was showing bigger gains than the establishment survey. There is also a difference because the household survey counts people and the establishment survey counts jobs.

    It is a bad report, and this cycle is clearly worse than those in the past, but I hope this clarifies the survey question.

    Jeff
    Sep 9, 2012. 12:21 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Expecting Too Much From Jackson Hole? [View article]
    DeWayne -- thanks for the mention, and what a nice offer. We'll be in touch.

    main at newarc dot com is the best way to reach out on all fronts!

    Thanks,

    Jeff
    Aug 29, 2012. 10:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Expecting Too Much From Jackson Hole? [View article]
    AllStreets -- There are many successful trading strategies. Sometimes I have two different programs making the opposite trade! Both programs are successful in the long run.

    Felix respects (adjusted) momentum for the three-week time frame. Felix also sends a sector to the penalty box when the situation gets murky. I occasionally have someone, either in the comments or by email, who "fades" Felix. These people have all quietly disappeared over the years.

    Unlike methods that succeed through identifying tops in overbought conditions, Felix cashes in on extended moves and exits via the penalty box. Each method prevails sometimes.

    Best of luck in your trading!

    Jeff
    Aug 26, 2012. 11:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Expecting Too Much From Jackson Hole? [View article]
    CautiousInvestor -- I mentioned that Draghi was scheduled for Saturday, but I might have said a little more. This does not seem like the forum for any new policy announcements, but he has already surprised us with the "it will be enough" speech:) Who knows?

    The GaveKal group has had some lively discussion over the course in Europe. Their most recent piece, by Louis Gave, focused on the effect of the Italian election next April. He mused that this might actually provide a little more negotiating power for Monti.

    Concerning the weakening German economy, you see this as limiting their resources for funding. Others see it as an incentive for German leaders to act before things get worse. Most of what is needed from them right now is not immediate cash, but concessions on lending and guarantees versus sacrifice of sovereignty by others.

    We agree that it is complicated, and that nations will act in their own interest. We'll see.

    Jeff
    Aug 26, 2012. 11:15 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Expecting Too Much From Jackson Hole? [View article]
    Dancing diva -- Thanks and thanks also for the link. Chapter IV seems to be on point here.

    Bernanke has not been getting much help from Congress and the President.

    Jeff
    Aug 26, 2012. 11:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Worry About Profits As A Percent Of GDP [View article]
    Here is the note at FRED explaining that the use the NBER definition, not the popular two-quarter rule of thumb.

    http://bit.ly/Od4MCa

    You have been using it yourself without realizing it, as you can easily see if you look at this chart using the default FRED settings: http://bit.ly/OfdinF
    Aug 24, 2012. 04:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Worry About Profits As A Percent Of GDP [View article]
    Gary -- That is not what you get if you use the FRED functions. If you used your own special function to draw the recession shading, would you mind sharing it so that the rest of us can replicate it and test it?

    Thanks,

    Jeff
    Aug 24, 2012. 03:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding The Business Cycle -- The Key To Investor Success [View article]
    Daro -- I can only do so much in each installment:)

    I would note that the ECRI said nearly a year ago that recession was a 100% certainty and we might already be in one. I was the first to say "no" to this, and provided strong research findings from many sources.

    At the moment, these sources say a very low chance of a recession for nine months or a bit longer. This is more than enough time for our purposes, so there is no reason to talk about a year from now.

    More to come.

    Jeff
    Aug 24, 2012. 10:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding The Business Cycle -- The Key To Investor Success [View article]
    Freddy -- I think that you have excessive confidence in the regularity of the timing of these cycles.

    Many believe that the cycle is getting shorter -- the ECRI for one, but they have convinced others.

    I contend that there will be a lot of variation, and this recovery will involve a longer period of aggressive policy action.

    While we may disagree about interpreting data, why don't we agree that the discussion is not "silly" -- -OK? That does not add anything.

    Jeff
    Aug 24, 2012. 10:17 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Worry About Profits As A Percent Of GDP [View article]
    Very interesting article on an important topic -- thanks.

    In your first chart, what definition of recession did you use?
    Aug 24, 2012. 10:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding The Business Cycle -- The Key To Investor Success [View article]
    Gary -- I read your interesting article on profits as a percentage of GDP -- http://seekingalpha.co....

    Welcome to Seeking Alpha and I look forward to your future contributions.

    Meanwhile, I note that your article has shaded areas indicating US recessions. I have a simple question for you: When did your chart did you use the NBER recession dates that I recommend? Or did you use what you call the "tried and true" definition of two negative quarters?

    Just wondering....

    Jeff
    Aug 24, 2012. 10:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: The Lull Before The Storm? [View article]
    Nolesince87 -- If you have been reading regularly, you know three things:

    1) My short term perspective changes frequently, so I have been bearish within the last few months.

    2) My long term risk-adjusted perspective also changes, so I got more conservative last October when the SLFSI went over 1.1.

    3) My overall investor perspective has been accurate. I was talking Dow 20K two years ago when Dow 5000 was getting the attention.

    So I am not a permabull, but I do have specific metrics. I don't think about values for the market or individual stocks without considering earnings, which are at an all-time high, much stronger than 2008.

    I was not writing in 2000, but I had the valuation issue nailed then, so that is not a fair comparison.

    You may be right about slightly cheaper prices, but most will not pull the trigger on a small correction, just as they did not earlier this year.

    I appreciate the chance to discuss this, but I strongly disagree that I am providing logic for a market "bubble."

    Jeff
    Aug 21, 2012. 11:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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