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Jeff Miller

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  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time To Reconsider The Upside For Stocks? [View article]
    Timo57 -- Thanks, and I do follow the data.

    Whenever you write something that suggests a range of outcomes including significant gains, you attract a flock of SA comments from those who do not believe in balance. Whether the cause is political allegiance, economic ideology, or paid trolls, it is a test for the average reader.

    Each reader must think for himself or herself. Do not be persuaded by smart-alec comments with little supporting data.

    Thanks for taking the time to comment!

    Jeff
    Feb 12 10:20 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time To Reconsider The Upside For Stocks? [View article]
    John - Concerning my forecast for Europe at our enjoyable dinner last October, what I predicted was that it would not be a focal point of concern in about eight months. I think I have mentioned that time frame in several written pieces as well. I expect the ongoing debt issues and debate over fiscal union to persist for years, but it will no longer have the grip on the markets.

    In October, that seemed to be all anyone wanted to think about. For those with that viewpoint (perhaps not including you) many indicators are telling us that the risk of general systemic failure is much lower. At least there is less tail risk.

    I took the mortgage settlement out of this week's piece because I am not prepared to classify it yet:)

    Jeff
    Feb 12 05:33 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time To Reconsider The Upside For Stocks? [View article]
    John -- As you know, I want to encourage people to think in terms of distributions of outcomes. You help to emphasize that. I think that the market will double before being cut in half, but I do not know the exact path and can only estimate the time frame.

    But I have a question for you. During the period of time you discuss the ECB announced the LTRO program. How did this change your thinking? What impact did it have on your range?

    Thanks for joining in.

    Jeff
    Feb 12 03:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time To Reconsider The Upside For Stocks? [View article]
    Young -- I meant it in the sense of "thought provoking" and helpful.

    Jeff
    Feb 12 12:05 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time To Reconsider The Upside For Stocks? [View article]
    Thanks DAG!
    Caution and reasonable optimism is a good way to put it.

    Jeff
    Feb 12 10:25 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time To Reconsider The Upside For Stocks? [View article]
    Young -- I don't find much value in trying to find "matching years." I also don't see how people can make complex predictions about the path markets will take over the course of a year. I have methods that are good for a month or so, and methods that will be good for three years or so. I would not even try to predict where the market will be in August:)

    Last year's economic progress was interrupted by an external shock from the Japanese earthquake. A similar shock, whenever it happens, could cause a stumble this year as well.

    Provocative thoughts, as usual, from you.

    Jeff
    Feb 12 10:24 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time To Reconsider The Upside For Stocks? [View article]
    Trader2708 -- It is a mistake to pigeonhole people based on little information. My theme was inspired by the Barron's cover, for example, and they certainly do not represent the perma- bull camp.

    Meanwhile, a little research on your part would show that I was bearish in early October and neutral in November. I report this every week.

    Finally, I have a list of objective indicators that are better than emotion on this subject. Following them has been working pretty well.

    So let's be fair with each other and the data, OK?

    Jeff
    Feb 12 10:20 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For A Breather? [View article]
    Geoffrey -- Every week I suggest looking for what the market is giving you. Right now you can buy cheap dividend stocks and write calls with a combined yield of more than 8%.

    There is some stock fluctuation involved, so if you think we are about to have a market crash, this is not for you. If you think that prices will be the same or equal in a few years, it is a good strategy.

    Good question, and I hope my answer was helpful.

    Jeff
    Feb 8 09:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For A Breather? [View article]
    Trader 2708 -- Everyone knows that labor force participation has declined since the peak in 2000. I have frequently written about below trend growth. Based on the census data, we know that over a ten-year period the labor participation declined a bit more than we thought.

    The ZeroHedge blunder was in attributing all of this to one month and one year. The shoot first and think later policy should include reading to the bottom of the page.

    Nothing in the Bloomberg piece supports the ZH conclusion. If you think so, I recommend reading it more carefully.

    Jeff
    Feb 8 09:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For A Breather? [View article]
    madav -- do you use any data in your decision making?
    Feb 7 01:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For A Breather? [View article]
    Andrew -- Send an email to main at newarc dot com and ask for the Felix report. We do not spam or share email addresses, but that is the only good way to send information.

    Thanks,

    Jeff
    Feb 5 11:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • January Employment Report Preview [View article]
    OilFinder -- See here for a good explanation: http://bit.ly/xGUGXT

    Jeff
    Feb 3 03:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • January Employment Report Preview [View article]
    CW -- Part one of your question -

    Employment has major seasonal variations. The reason that most follow the seasonally adjusted numbers is that it takes account of the anticipated spikes and troughs using data from the last several years. These adjustments are constantly updated. The reported jobs gain uses these seasonally adjusted numbers.

    If you want to use NSA data, you can't do it month-to-month. Instead look at year over year. The table shows that January, 2011 employment was 128,327, or about 2 million jobs less.

    As to the Hedgeye chart, there was a change related to implementing the 2010 census results. This was described in the notes, but one popular blog that is fast on the trigger was shooting without reading. This is being picked up widely. I'll try to write more about this over the weekend.

    Good questions -- thanks.

    Jeff
    Feb 3 02:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • January Employment Report Preview [View article]
    OilFinder -- I share your curiosity. At some point they will provide more discussion.

    Jeff
    Feb 2 07:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • January Employment Report Preview [View article]
    perplexedtex -- If you click on the link I provided for business dynamics --repeated here for convenience http://1.usa.gov/wkaZZy -- and scroll down to the summary table you will see that in the quarter ending in June there were 6,892,000 new jobs created (I rounded that to 7 million). There were also 6,314,000 jobs destroyed. 1,265,000 jobs came from new businesses --- in just three months.

    My point is that by confusing job creation and net job creation, we fail to understand the problem. Anyone who suggests that there is little or no job creation does not understand the labor market. Those who parrot the monthly complaint about the birth/death adjustment as a "fictional addition" of jobs do not respect the real data about how many new jobs are created at new businesses.

    And thanks for asking:)

    Jeff
    Feb 2 12:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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