Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Jeff Miller  

View Jeff Miller's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Jeff Miller Positions For 2015: Still Plenty Of Life In The 'Aging Bull' [View article]
    raising rusty -- You got to see a great game with a happy outcome! Commenting on individual stocks is not a good idea. I would do much more research if it were on one of my watch lists, and I would also consider the suitability for you. Having said this, the earnings are up about 30% over 5 years or so, or about 6% per year. The P/E is over 21, so expensive for that kind of growth. The dividend yield is only 2.5%. These metrics are all typical of utility stocks.

    Good luck with your investing and enjoy those Madison visits! I still get there and also the Fox River Valley on occasions.

    Jeff
    Jan 11, 2015. 08:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jeff Miller Positions For 2015: Still Plenty Of Life In The 'Aging Bull' [View article]
    G -

    Utility stocks get priced on a yield differential to long-term rates. If the rates go lower, as they did last year, the prices go higher, preserving the differential. If rates go higher, the utility price goes lower. There is no reason for it to rebound unless the company finds a new source of earnings or rates move lower.

    That is why I see the group as risky. If I am wrong about interest rates, the sector will continue to be OK.

    Make sense?

    Jeff
    Jan 10, 2015. 05:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jeff Miller Positions For 2015: Still Plenty Of Life In The 'Aging Bull' [View article]
    Robert Duval -- Concerning investors on the sidelines. The outflow from stocks to bonds went on for years. You are too impressed by a brief and inconsistent change. The direction should shift for years.

    I congratulate you on your wisdom and trading returns. You seem to have great skill. It is possible that my work puts me a little more in touch with average investors.....

    Jeff
    Jan 10, 2015. 02:09 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jeff Miller Positions For 2015: Still Plenty Of Life In The 'Aging Bull' [View article]
    Robert Duval -- More about bond investors.

    1) You are taking my comment about "hot money" and implying that I am calling it "dumb money." Not so! I cited a sophisticated arb strategy used by really smart people with lots of computer help. It is smart, but it can change quickly.

    2) I do not treat markets by treating them as single individuals. It is a mistake to do so, and I write on the topic fairly frequently. There are many reasons for investing in bonds. Some pension funds need low-risk duration for example. Those in wealth preservation mode should be very conservative. I have significant holdings in individual bonds for my clients.

    Jeff
    Jan 10, 2015. 02:07 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jeff Miller Positions For 2015: Still Plenty Of Life In The 'Aging Bull' [View article]
    Robert Duval -- Coal stocks? Right. But please note that I did not make this recommendation last year. Let see how it does in the time frame I have suggested -- 2015.

    Jeff
    Jan 10, 2015. 02:00 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jeff Miller Positions For 2015: Still Plenty Of Life In The 'Aging Bull' [View article]
    Left Banker -- My suggestion about sector selection for 2015 is something that I think will work right now -- because of the extended over-valuation of some sectors and under-valuation of others.

    I don't think I stated it as a general rule, and I certainly did not mean to.

    Thanks for giving me a chance to clarify.

    Jeff
    Jan 10, 2015. 01:59 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jeff Miller Positions For 2015: Still Plenty Of Life In The 'Aging Bull' [View article]
    Lakeaffect -- My recommendation about being politically agnostic emphasizes a focus on likely outcomes and what is market friendly. I see coalition building with a reach to marginal members of the other party as a key dynamic in the new Senate. I am especially encouraged by the apparently reduced chances of a government shutdown or a debt default. The market hates even the threat of these ideas.

    The process is not partisan, nor am I commenting on the merits of the final legislation. Here is a brief description of the principle: http://bit.ly/1DJSxYq

    If we succeed in getting some tax reform, for example, I think it will follow this process. And there will definitely be some completely left out.

    I should have known better than to cite a hot-button issue, even though it would be a great case study for a class in legislative behavior. I hope people will focus on the point of this example.

    Jeff
    Jan 10, 2015. 01:55 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jeff Miller Positions For 2015: Still Plenty Of Life In The 'Aging Bull' [View article]
    Tollsforthee -- The GOP influenced the final bill even without producing a single vote in the Senate. (I think there was one in the House, which was jokingly cited as bipartisan support!) Leaders (of either party) trying to put together a coalition look for the marginal or maverick members of the other party. Sometimes these may be easier to convince than fringe members of your own party. In this case there were some GOP targets, most prominently Olympia Snowe of Maine. She supported the bill in committee, but came under intense pressure from party leadership. Dems were forced to meet the demands of some of their own conservatives as well as Independents. Sen. Nelson and the infamous "Cornhusker kickback" -- -later voted out -- were part of the result. Each vote, at the margin, changed the nature of the bill. An important result was the loss of the "public option." Essentially, the bargaining with Snowe changed the nature of the bill even though she did not vote for it.

    I am not saying that the resulting legislation has bipartisan support, but that the legislative dynamics work across party lines. I think we are going to be seeing a lot more of this. We'll know soon.

    Jeff
    Jan 10, 2015. 01:45 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jeff Miller Positions For 2015: Still Plenty Of Life In The 'Aging Bull' [View article]
    Rog -- You have a good plan which does not require exact timing. Nice going!

    I am watching weekly data, watching for a better balance of supply and demand. It is important to consider both.

    Jeff
    Jan 10, 2015. 01:30 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jeff Miller Positions For 2015: Still Plenty Of Life In The 'Aging Bull' [View article]
    Chump -- It should certainly sell more tickets to the Big House, probably restoring the annual attendance record lead.

    Like you, am watching with interest!

    Jeff
    Jan 10, 2015. 01:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For The 'January Effect'? [View article]
    Jim -- I have not seen data on the first part of your objection, but I am interested if you have a link.

    As you know, I do not regard markets as efficient, but it seems like you are stretching the normal definition of market timing. I am trying to warn against "all-in" or "all-out" decisions based upon some indicator. Instead, it is better to pick a stock allocation that reflects your personal situation. More here: http://bit.ly/1rZ4jgb

    Thanks for joining in. It is fine to disagree. Maybe I have clarified for some.

    Jeff
    Jan 5, 2015. 06:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For The 'January Effect'? [View article]
    Jack -- I agree that the economy is fine. The last two weeks have been a bit soft, and my commentary always reviews the past week and the week ahead. Many of the other sources, which cover a wide range of viewpoints, are the most interesting of what I read.

    In the quant section I have been tracking the SLFSI for years. I think I was an early proponent of this. It includes plenty of credit data, so I agree with that point as well.

    Jeff
    Jan 5, 2015. 11:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For The 'January Effect'? [View article]
    brad77 -- -Yes, you could make the same argument about missing the worst days. The general point is the false attraction of market timing.

    As to the motives of brokerage firms, I hear this argument a lot. It helps to look at the business model. Most firms do not profit by "keeping people in the market." Some make money from commissions. Others from helping with the right asset allocation in a wrap account. The firm in question offers many different asset choices and has no particular reason to emphasize stocks.

    Just a thought...

    Jeff
    Jan 4, 2015. 07:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For The 'January Effect'? [View article]
    Mitchad2 -- The article is written by a contributor, not their main blogger. I don't think they are selling anything special with this post.

    It is difficult to disagree with chartists, mostly because there is no good way to test the methods as we do in regular trading systems. I am not so sure about the art if different experts can see different things in the same chart. what I liked about this was the identification of standard signals which did not work out -- evidence we do not usually see. It is not as obvious as the 1929 chart.

    Maybe I should insist that the Silver Bullet go to refutation of a specific claim.

    Jeff
    Jan 4, 2015. 07:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For The 'January Effect'? [View article]
    Mitchad2 -- Brian is always worth reading. I saw his message this week as a bit mixed. The quarterly "bump" was expected, but he is still concerned about declining estimates in energy.

    I agree with you that some skepticism seems built in.

    Jeff
    Jan 4, 2015. 07:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
1,760 Comments
3,047 Likes