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Jeff Miller

 
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  • The Sound Of Silence [View article]
    Small Pharma -- No, it is not a trend. Please re-read the segment and link where I said that the "divergences" were not important. They will be highlighted only when providing support for a per-conceived viewpoint.

    Are you a practitioner of the dark art of divining divergences? Do you see negativity no matter which way small caps move?

    That is the point.....

    Jeff
    May 22 11:21 PM | 19 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: What Does The Bond Rally Mean For Stocks? [View article]
    Michael -- Your colorful naming bears no relationship to the actual definition of recessions. The exact time (after the fact) is identified by the non-partisan National Bureau of Economic Research. The recession is the time from a business cycle peak to a trough. That definition is used for all of the research on things like effects on earnings. It is what you see whenever you have a chart with some gray portions showing the recession.

    Most people continue to believe that we are in a recession because they confuse below-trend growth with a decline from a business cycle peak. The amateur definition is not useful for analysis.

    Jeff
    May 22 09:51 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: What Does The Bond Rally Mean For Stocks? [View article]
    Thanks to all for encouragement and great comments.

    Jeff
    May 18 09:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: What Does The Bond Rally Mean For Stocks? [View article]
    berry -- There have been a number of studies on the effect of QE on long rates, with a range of results.

    Based upon those findings, I think that we might expect that the 10-year might be about 1% to 1.2% higher without any QE. Most of the Fed effect is on the short end. No one really knows the actual impact on the long end.

    I generally agree that the market is the main force.

    We shall see:)

    Jeff
    May 18 09:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: What Does The Bond Rally Mean For Stocks? [View article]
    Rich W -- Financials will do better when the yield curve steepens, which I obviously expect. That was the key theme of this post.

    I am trying to remember when you turned bearish, but I cannot remember an encouraging comment.

    If the economic consensus is right on the economy, a down year will be unlikely. I suspect that we will get to discuss this weekly for several months!

    Thanks for joining in.

    Jeff
    May 18 09:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Can We Learn From The 'Tuesday Effect?' [View article]
    Fdel -- -Welcome to Seeking Alpha, and thanks for joining in our discussion. I am always curious about what interests readers. This post is pretty low profile as SA articles go. Would you mind sharing how it led you to make your first comments at Seeking Alpha?

    Best of luck with your trading.

    Thanks in advance....

    Jeff
    May 15 10:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time To Worry About 'Divergences'? [View article]
    avolossov -- Why do you think that the Gilmartin source (Thomson - Reuters) is questionable? Why do you think that Zacks is better?

    My experience is that these firms all use slightly different definitions. I have a long data series from T/R, the successor to First Call. I regard their work as first-rate. One thing that I like is that they provide a rolling 12-month forward estimate -- very useful.

    It is important to stick with a definition for your analysis. Some people switch around, choosing whichever method best suits their current market view.

    Maybe Brian will join us with a comment on the different definitions.

    Jeff
    May 11 11:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time To Worry About 'Divergences'? [View article]
    fragile bill -- whoever sent you did not provide a good link! You should complain and ask for better information if you are going to keep this up.

    The right link at the S&P source explains the difference between "as reported" earnings and operating earnings. The later excludes exceptional items and is more commonly used. Of course, if exceptional items keep coming up, that is another matter!

    This is a topic that we have discussed fairly often.

    Welcome to Seeking Alpha and your first comment. It is a strange combination of sophistication and naivete.....

    Jeff
    May 11 11:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time To Worry About 'Divergences'? [View article]
    Cautious Investor -- Thanks for your comments, helpful as always and interesting to others as well.

    One point in your summary is especially provocative: the idea that assorted indicators "accompany" a market top. Let's think about that for a moment. Suppose I stated: Each record high in an index is preceded (accompanied?) by a prior record. In fact, a prior high is a necessary but not sufficient condition for a new high.

    The Boockvars of the world start with the thing they are studying -- the market top -- and then look for things that happened just before. These then become indicators. That is exactly backwards.

    They should actually start with the collection of indicators and ask how often a top resulted.

    Even that method, popularized by Hussman's frequent "ever and always" statement is not good enough if your research approach uses data mining to discover the collection of indicators. You have used up all of the history, leaving nothing to test your hypothesis. You will only know when you see it in real time.

    To repeat -- I agree with your helpful comment and the spirit. It just made me realize that I might have made this point more effectively.

    Jeff
    May 11 03:49 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time To Worry About 'Divergences'? [View article]
    mark -- thanks for the laugh:)

    Jeff
    May 11 12:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time To Worry About 'Divergences'? [View article]
    dancing diva -- If you had mentioned it when you read it, I might have cited it sooner!

    I do not think this is a market timing method, so the lag does not bother me. Instead, I think that we should use it as an antidote for the perma-bear message that things will be bad for ten years. When predictions of those like Hussman do not come to pass, they blame the Fed and kick the can on their expiration dates by shifting to a ten-year return and lecturing about the duration of a stock.

    As you know, I think that a ten-year yield of 4 to 4.5% would be a very healthy environment for stocks. It will happen when the economy improves and it might also lead to a higher P/E multiple.

    Jeff
    May 11 12:02 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time To Worry About 'Divergences'? [View article]
    StepUp - I try to write about China whenever there is some relevant news. Many are citing small changes in the flash PMI (which they do not even understand) as really important. What happens when you have little data is that you rely too much on what there is.

    Asking about an "economic slowdown" is revealing. The Chinese economy is far from slowing. The "hard landing" that bears have predicted for years has not happened. We have a modest reduction in the rate of growth, which is still more than double that of the U.S.

    Also, I think I have quoted Ed Yardeni about China worries several times in the last few weeks.

    To summarize, it is something we should watch, but probably over-stated as a worry for the US economy.

    Thanks for the question!

    Jeff
    May 11 11:57 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time To Worry About 'Divergences'? [View article]
    rz2013 -- Doug and I have various friendly email exchanges, and I have met him in person. I quote him on a wide variety of subjects and they are often in the "bad news" category.

    Concerning his very popular "Is the stock market cheap" series, I am confident that readers who are interested have seen it. I have written frequently about the specific measures that he uses. Maybe someday I will convince him to add some other valuation indicators. There is a vigorous debate on this subject.

    I'm not going to rewrite what I have done before in the comments, but I regard the market as moderately undervalued with solid growth potential.

    Maybe it is time for another post on this subject. You can go to my blog site and search for Shiller, CAPE, or Tobin's Q if you want.

    Thanks for joining in.

    Jeff
    May 11 11:53 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Is The Ukraine Crisis Important For Financial Markets? [View article]
    Chump -- I expect overall PE multiples to move a little higher as investors get more confident in the economy. This is contrary to popular thought, but it is actually typical when there is some consensus about economic improvement. We haven't seen that for a decade.

    I do think that certain sectors have been bid up -- and that includes stocks valued mostly on dividends, like utilities. The bargains are in stocks with a 2.5% yield or so.

    Good question!

    Jeff
    May 5 11:36 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time To 'Sell In May'? [View article]
    billcharlesdixon -- Many issues are not part of the weekly review/preview. As I have written before, I understand the significance of the Ukraine situation for world politics, defining roles, setting precedents, and many other angles. The question I ask is each week has two parts:

    1) Does this story have a significant potential market impact?
    2) Did anything change this week --- something really new?

    From the market perspective there was initial fear of direct US/Russian military conflict, and I explained that it was not going to happen. I discussed the many diplomatic steps that we would see with months of negotiation, etc.

    Tom notes that the market is not reacting much, and he is correct. If you want to worry from a stock perspective, you need to have some rationale. There is a long list of worries that make good TV....

    And I emphasize again -- none of this is to disparage the significance for the people involved.

    I am watching this closely for any market implications.

    Thanks for the question -- maybe I should have explained a little in the post.

    Jeff
    Apr 27 11:15 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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