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Jeff Miller  

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  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Too Late To Join The Stock Rally? [View article]
    Doug -- The UK started to count various illegal activities as part of their GDP. Some other European countries already do. Since the spending allocations for the Eurozone relate to relative GDP, they all need to use the same rules.

    There is actually plenty of uncounted economic activity in the US, but I thought the idea of adding it was worth a chuckle.

    Jeff
    Nov 9, 2014. 07:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Too Late To Join The Stock Rally? [View article]
    Robert -- One of my consistent themes if that those who say they are "listening to the market" should just buy index funds. Where is your edge?

    I do not think that the market is efficient, so it is often giving false signals of various sorts. Your TLT position may have more to do with Europe and some arbitrage than the prospects for US stocks.

    Just a thought...

    Jeff
    Nov 9, 2014. 07:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Too Late To Join The Stock Rally? [View article]
    Robert -- Buffett's cash is sometimes not helpful. He needs a large opportunity to make a meaningful investment. I am finding plenty of interesting stocks at various risk levels.

    Mr. B joked recently that he had an elephant gun and was looking for some elephants.

    And I certainly would not argue with someone who was finding some attractive short opportunities as well.

    Jeff
    Nov 9, 2014. 07:09 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: What Does The End Of QE Mean To The Individual Investor? [View article]
    Rob -- Thanks for your comments, and for providing a nomination:)

    Jeff
    Nov 3, 2014. 12:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: What Does The End Of QE Mean To The Individual Investor? [View article]
    Rich W -- If memory serves, you have been on the bubble theme for quite awhile. I do not think that there is a large asset bubble, and you certainly don't provide any evidence.

    As to which inning --- successful investors look for a business cycle peak. I spend a lot of effort on that topic and share it with you every week. It is much stronger than saying things like "this rally has already lasted x months."

    It is a more gradual rally from a sharp decline. It will last longer -- perhaps a lot longer. I try to look about one year ahead, but my best guess is that it is longer than that.

    If you would prefer, you can take it that we have just started the second half of a football or basketball game!!

    Jeff
    Nov 2, 2014. 09:48 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: What Does The End Of QE Mean To The Individual Investor? [View article]
    Doug -- You are exactly right. Those producing these charts can do it in a few seconds, often copying from others, and then add some commentary that plays to existing biases. It pays off in page views.

    Trying to refute it takes a lot of time without any effective business model for providing truth.

    Jeff
    Nov 2, 2014. 09:43 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Is The Stock Market Correction Over? [View article]
    mychael -- I have gotten that smart-alec comment from four people before. None of them post any more on Seeking Alpha. I taught my last college class almost 30 years ago, which you would know if you read the profile before commenting.

    In my five different programs I often adjust to reflect new data. This happens most frequently with Felix, where I provide daily updates at Scutify.

    I usually ignore inaccurate and mean-spirited comments, but I'll respond one time to give you a chance to improve your fairness and accuracy.

    Jeff
    Nov 2, 2014. 09:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: What Does The End Of QE Mean To The Individual Investor? [View article]
    avolossov -- You have explained the reason for my scoring. The move was "market friendly." That standard helps keep the investment focus.

    As to the merits of the policy for the Japanese or the rest of the world, it is certainly open to debate-- starting with the points you raise.

    And thanks for the kind words:)

    Jeff
    Nov 2, 2014. 12:16 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: What Does The End Of QE Mean To The Individual Investor? [View article]
    CautiousInvestor -

    The appropriate forward PE multiple should have something to do with interest rates (or inflation). Back when we had double-digit inflation and bond yields, you would never have paid a 15x multiple for stocks.

    You can think of it as an asset allocation choice or simply as a reflection of market expectations. Either way, a higher multiple is justified. The current multiple reflects persistent skepticism about earnings and especially profit margins.

    I understand that many (most?) look at earnings multiples in terms of long-term averages and charts with no adjustment. I think we can do better.

    Thanks for joining in once again.

    Jeff
    Nov 2, 2014. 09:26 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: What Does The End Of QE Mean To The Individual Investor? [View article]
    Thanks, Nate. That is indeed what I meant:)

    Jeff
    Nov 2, 2014. 09:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Is The Stock Market Correction Over? [View article]
    Thanks Imych -- both for reading and for your kind thoughts and words.

    Jeff
    Oct 19, 2014. 10:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Is The Stock Market Correction Over? [View article]
    WKRAWDAD -- I provided the wrong table. Seeking Alpha has published the correction.

    Thanks for your comment, and I apologize for the error.

    Jeff
    Oct 19, 2014. 10:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Is The Stock Market Correction Over? [View article]
    macombet -- Thanks to you and others for your encouragement in how I spend my Saturdays!

    Jeff
    Oct 19, 2014. 01:59 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Is The Stock Market Correction Over? [View article]
    Mitchad2 -- As you know from my final thoughts, I agree with your assessment. It must be a great challenge to create content to fill all of that air time.

    Jeff
    Oct 19, 2014. 12:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Can Earnings Season Reverse The Stock Market Decline? [View article]
    John - Scott has a definite viewpoint. Like you, I try to reflect a variety of perspectives. Asset values do matter. Some folks who have the income choose to borrow. Why else would Ben Bernanke want to refinance is mortgage?

    You are quite correct that debt service is an important measure. Many people have refinanced at lower rates, some helped by HARP. The Kool-Aide comes in different flavors. Much of what I read is confused with the shampoo -- a repetition of what they have been saying all along.

    Thanks for joining in!

    Jeff
    Oct 14, 2014. 10:36 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
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