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Jeff Miller

 
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  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Sluggish Housing Growth Derail The Economy? [View article]
    Mitchad2 -- Thanks for your constructive observations and also for sharing your strategy. Others would do well to consider it.

    I apologize for the error on the link to Gilmartin's piece. Here it is: http://bit.ly/1nNyC2F

    Thanks again,

    Jeff
    May 26 07:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Sluggish Housing Growth Derail The Economy? [View article]
    adam22164 -- I agree, and that is why I used the example. If you had to make a list of the five most powerful people in government, the Fed Chair would be included.

    If you had to list the top women who have achieved important "firsts" you would have to include Yellen.

    It is something that we would expect everyone to know.

    However -- most people cannot name their own Congressman, and that has been true for decades. They are lucky to name one Senator. They can name more of the seven dwarfs than the Supreme Court justices....

    Jeff
    May 26 07:42 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Sluggish Housing Growth Derail The Economy? [View article]
    Byloe Enhold -- I always made it a point to monitor popular culture and update examples in my lectures. Somehow, it seemed easier back then, so I understand exactly what you are saying.

    I really enjoyed your comment:)

    Jeff
    May 26 07:39 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is This The Next 10 Years Of The Dow Jones Industrial Average? [View article]
    Thanks for citing my piece and for your first-rate explanation of the problem.

    We study "degrees of freedom" in beginning stat classes, but people still use ten variables to "predict" ten past recessions --- etc.

    That is an extreme case, of course, but you have explained the point. Sadly, some of the most popular and credentialed opinion leaders claim excessive predictive power from complex models.
    May 26 07:36 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Sluggish Housing Growth Derail The Economy? [View article]
    bbro -- You always have an interesting indicator or two to add. Thanks, once again, for joining in!

    Jeff
    May 25 11:29 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Sluggish Housing Growth Derail The Economy? [View article]
    Byloe Enhold -- That is a great story and a good link for me to bookmark.

    Thanks!

    Jeff
    May 25 11:29 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Sluggish Housing Growth Derail The Economy? [View article]
    Mrnomad -- I agree. I was trying to get at the fact that people focus on the level rather than the change. In this summary piece I try to highlight things and provide links. The Forbes link shows that the underwater rate was 19.4% a year ago as opposed to 18.8% now. The improvement was more dramatic in 2012.

    Your point is accurate. Journalists could write the same story every year. The number will always seem alarmingly high despite improvement.

    Jeff
    May 25 11:26 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Sluggish Housing Growth Derail The Economy? [View article]
    macombet --- The yield curve inversion is part of most strong recession forecasting methods. It actually gives a lot of warning, even leaning to a possible "false positive."

    Thanks for your kind words, and good luck with your stock picking.

    Jeff
    May 25 11:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Sound Of Silence [View article]
    Jaysan -- I just moved the blog to a new site and format. I am still working with my developer on various issues, including the date format and display. Eventually the new location will be much better, but right now there are some growing pains.

    Thanks,

    Jeff
    May 23 12:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Sound Of Silence [View article]
    Scrying Biotech -- I'm sure you know that I am not the one to choose Tyler Durden as the symbol, so I assume you are injecting some much-needed humor!

    Thanks,

    Jeff
    May 23 10:01 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Sound Of Silence [View article]
    cfetrader -- There are many ways to make money through investing and trading. You have a method which you have tested to your own satisfaction.

    I wish you well -- but not necessarily on the current trade.

    Jeff
    May 23 09:58 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Sound Of Silence [View article]
    ValueinvestorEU -- Perhaps you don't realize it, but you are building a straw man to knock down. I did not say anything about "mindlessly bullish" nor did I recommend buying overpriced stocks or sectors.

    If you follow my posts, you will see that I adjust my own perspective according to the data -- especially risk and the SLFSI -- as well as our short-term trading indicators. Since there is little recession risk, we are in an extended economic (and market) cycle.

    I recommend that readers ignore your appeal to your list of authorities. It is easy to line up long-timer experts on either side of the market at any time.

    You really need to think for yourself, making sure that the specific stock picks and overall asset allocation are right for your situation. Instead, many investors (you?) are caught up in bogus warnings of the sort I describe here.

    Jeff
    May 23 09:55 AM | 41 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Sound Of Silence [View article]
    Small Pharma -- No, it is not a trend. Please re-read the segment and link where I said that the "divergences" were not important. They will be highlighted only when providing support for a per-conceived viewpoint.

    Are you a practitioner of the dark art of divining divergences? Do you see negativity no matter which way small caps move?

    That is the point.....

    Jeff
    May 22 11:21 PM | 19 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: What Does The Bond Rally Mean For Stocks? [View article]
    Michael -- Your colorful naming bears no relationship to the actual definition of recessions. The exact time (after the fact) is identified by the non-partisan National Bureau of Economic Research. The recession is the time from a business cycle peak to a trough. That definition is used for all of the research on things like effects on earnings. It is what you see whenever you have a chart with some gray portions showing the recession.

    Most people continue to believe that we are in a recession because they confuse below-trend growth with a decline from a business cycle peak. The amateur definition is not useful for analysis.

    Jeff
    May 22 09:51 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: What Does The Bond Rally Mean For Stocks? [View article]
    Thanks to all for encouragement and great comments.

    Jeff
    May 18 09:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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