Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Jeff Miller  

View Jeff Miller's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For An Upside Breakout? [View article]
    Mitchad2 -- To be clear he called shorting the German 10 year the trade of a lifetime. As a practical matter, it is difficult for the average investor to take advantage of this.

    Rick Santelli also noted that those rates could go even further into negative territory!!

    Jeff
    Apr 26, 2015. 07:13 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For An Upside Breakout? [View article]
    Tony -- Congratulations on being willing to buy (or hold) at a time when fear was rampant.

    Jeff
    Apr 26, 2015. 07:11 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: A Geopolitical Risk To U.S. Stocks? [View article]
    6034700 -- My point was to highlight the fine work of Carnevale, who happens to use Blodget as a starting point.

    Henry Blodget regularly states that the market is extremely overvalued but that he is fully invested. I think he needs a good quant guy on his team! I missed the Apple story....

    Jeff
    Apr 19, 2015. 11:44 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: A Geopolitical Risk To U.S. Stocks? [View article]
    cfetrader --- Sure, your weekly comments have made your position quite clear. Your viewpoint is most welcome. As to waiting for a major dip before changing your stance, I have been hearing that for several years:)

    Jeff
    Apr 19, 2015. 11:40 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: A Geopolitical Risk To U.S. Stocks? [View article]
    Thanks for this important correction.

    Jeff
    Apr 19, 2015. 11:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: The Start Of An 'Earnings Recession'? [View article]
    Lots of comics this week!

    Enjoying:)

    Jeff
    Apr 15, 2015. 09:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: The Start Of An 'Earnings Recession'? [View article]
    6034700 -- You raise some interesting points:

    About Rosenberg's career path and switch to a bullish view: You are accurate in describing how he built his following, and I agree that he was wrong on the economy for years. His loyal followers would counter that he made them money in bonds rather than stocks. Barry Ritholtz seems to have the inside story behind his move and describes it here: http://bit.ly/1hnopd9

    Whose work I should cite and/or feature: In general, I use content as my guide, not who is saying something. If I never quoted people with whom I disagree (or have disagreed some time in the past) I would have little content. If I lost a reader every time I quoted someone they did not like, I would soon have no readers. Everyone has their preferences, and they differ. It is easier to write a permabull or permabear blog. You can keep a constant cast of favorites!

    Why Rosenberg: I like to highlight those who have changed opinions to reflect changing data -- even if they are a bit late to the party! I tried to make this clear with my little joke about the Mauldin conference, where Rosenberg is still on the program --- so far! Adam Parker is another recent example.

    Why this theme: I bring up the 'bull market does not die of old age' theme every few weeks, because it is the source of many investor losses. I have had readers who have been on the sidelines for years waiting for an entry point. Most should have at least some stock exposure in a balanced portfolio.

    And finally, Rosenberg's reasoning was good. Maybe it will help a few of his old fans take a fresh perspective.

    I hope this helps to explain how I choose what to include. There is a method, and I hope you don't quit reading. Maybe you can just skip that paragraph!!

    Thanks for a thoughtful and provocative comment.

    Jeff
    Apr 12, 2015. 12:03 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: The Start Of An 'Earnings Recession'? [View article]
    rosenose -- I agree about Chuck's DLR article, which I mentioned last week. I am happy to see you cite it again. I bought it for some clients.

    GE is part of our enhanced yield program. The underlying stocks are stodgier, but pay reasonable dividends and represent a good platform for selling near-term calls. It would not qualify for our more aggressive programs.

    Thanks for joining in once again!

    Jeff
    Apr 12, 2015. 11:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: The Start Of An 'Earnings Recession'? [View article]
    Mitchad2 - You have developed some practical rules for risk control, and they have so far worked for you. I am curious about the danger of a flash crash, which I have written about before in discussing stops. You know this but for the benefit of others, when a stop is activated it becomes a market order. During the Flash Crash some stocks were down 80% or so -- if only for a few minutes.

    It also depends upon how much edge you have in your trading system. The Kelly Criterion (used in a conservative fashion by the Ken Uston blackjack team) is an accepted standard. http://bit.ly/MaAiTj

    I have seen many blow out their trading accounts. Excessive size was a frequent reason, along with a method that had no edge to start with.

    Thanks for sharing your approach, which others may find helpful.

    Jeff
    Apr 12, 2015. 11:40 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Correction Looming? [View article]
    Thanks to everyone who added to the great discussion this week, and also to those who enjoyed the links and provided some encouragement. I do not always feel like spending Saturday on this. It is good to know people find it useful:)

    While I do not respond to each and every comment, I do read everything and join in where I can add something.

    Jeff
    Apr 5, 2015. 06:36 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Correction Looming? [View article]
    GaltMachine -- I find that many using y/y numbers are uncomfortable with or unable to do seasonal adjustments. They wind up "backing into" current changes by comparing y/y numbers for two different points. So I prefer the adjusted current changes, but try to remain cognizant of when something is distorting the result.

    For example -- we always have winter, but occasionally it is more (or less) severe than represented in the seasonal adjustment. We naturally ignore positive effects from the census temp hires a few years ago or "cars for clunkers." The same thing applies to issues like the port work stoppages.

    It is true that the recession forecasting models usually include something about the slope of the yield curve. This is expected, since it has done so well with past recessions. It is convenient for those who want to predict a recession to throw out this indicator because the Fed policy is so dominant. It is an easy and self-serving excuse.

    This deserves a full post, but the basic idea is that the Fed has held the short end low before on several occasions. That is part of the reason the indicator has worked. Secondly, the Fed policy is influencing the long end -- by about 1.1% according to their studies. So the slope is affected in two ways.

    The hand of the Fed is nearly always involved in marking a business cycle peak.

    Thoughtful question, deserving a longer answer.

    Jeff
    Apr 5, 2015. 04:26 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Correction Looming? [View article]
    bbro -- Thanks for the great example to highlight this important theme. I used to do a monthly employment preview emphasizing these issues. I still do it occasionally, and I also point out trends in the benchmarking.

    The market places too much emphasis on this number, and a single month -- as you observe.

    Jeff
    Apr 5, 2015. 12:50 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Correction Looming? [View article]
    txbadonetoo -- You are correct that labor participation remains low and the debate about causes (economic versus demographic) continues. I have reported several times about the part-time issue. Most of it is voluntary and the ratio has not changed as much as some assert.

    The time frame of the chart is certainly chosen to emphasize the rebound. Every chart that we see, including the ones I post, is open to discussion.

    Thanks,

    Jeff
    Apr 5, 2015. 12:47 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Correction Looming? [View article]
    hawkeyec -- I agree with your observations about the inventory data. Once market participants decide that a theme is important, they react and over-react to each new data point. That is why I started adding inventories to my weekly data calendar -- at least for now.

    Thanks for joining in!

    Jeff
    Apr 5, 2015. 12:42 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For An Economic Spring Thaw? [View article]
    Simont --

    In general, Federal spending is counter-cyclical, increasing in times of economic difficulty. State and local spending is pro-cyclical, mostly because of the requirements for balanced budgets and the declining revenues.

    There have been significant job and spending cuts at the local level -- teachers, police, fire-fighters, library workers, etc. This has been a major drag on GDP for years. Just resuming normal growth will get rid of one headwind.

    The point of the analysis was to get people to include the state and local impacts, so I urge you to read again.

    Jeff
    Mar 30, 2015. 02:58 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
1,814 Comments
3,148 Likes