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Jeff Miller

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  • How Will Economic Stress Affect the Market? [View article]
    Eduard -- This is a very interesting comment. You are something like the anti-Buffett. Your simplistic viewpoint is that the people know all and the professors are the last to know.

    I suggest that anyone who has any interest in your viewpoint do a search on my blog about public opinion and knowledge. The whole point of investing is to get an edge when uninformed people go to extremes of fear and greed.

    Eduard -- we are at polar extremes. Let me ask you a simple question? Where do you find your edge? Point us to a single prediction that you have made that was yours and not an interpretation of something that already happened in the market.

    If you do not have a record of predictive success (as I do) then your aggressive comments about my former colleagues in the professor world are really not fair.

    Frankly, I would not bother to reply to you and many other people (some of whom are obviously paid trolls or working for a political campaign) except that so many people take these comments seriously.

    Sheesh!

    Jeff
    Aug 19 08:38 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Will Economic Stress Affect the Market? [View article]
    tuck -- I manage five different programs, adjusted to fit the needs of each investor. It is a careful process, much more careful than your short-term trading, all-in, all-out comments.

    The bond ladder program has done great. Felix, which I report weekly, has been more than great. The DAA program is in a combination of various bonds, utilities, and gold. I have one program for long-term investors that is actually the best one over the last 12 years, but is not so good right now. Qualified investors are welcome to ask about returns.

    So when I write something to provide a little help for the average investor, that is my motive. I do not expect them to invest with me, and it has nothing to do with a sales pitch. If I wanted to do a pitch, I could do a lot better -- as do many others on SA.

    So dial it back a notch. You know absolutely nothing about my business. Your know-it-all attitude may work for you, but most people need more thoughtful analysis.

    I am delighted that you are one of the few day-traders who has been successful, but you are in the minority. I am happy to have constructive and substantive comments, and I trust that intelligent readers will ignore non-responsive entries like your post here.

    Jeff
    Aug 19 08:29 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Identifying Panic Selling in the Present Market [View article]
    Angel -- Like you, I am an interested consumer of any measure that might be helpful. The SLFSI is the product of some careful development and testing. As a student and former teacher of these methods I like the principal component approach and the means of determining weights. The index tests well against many important events. We have been working on it this summer with encouraging results.

    I am curious about why you think the euro basis swap (or any similar indicator) captures some element of systemic risk distinct from other "flight to quality" measures in the SLFSI.

    Since you and I share an objective to figure out when the market is over-reacting to something, we can't use the market itself as the indicator of truth.

    To emphasize -- I did not write that there was no cause for concern. For those of us who focus on data, the market reactions seem extreme.

    Thanks for your thoughtful comment.

    Jeff
    Aug 12 01:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Parsing the Fed's Decision and Market Reaction [View article]
    bkpark -- What you describe is what we typically mean by a short-covering rally. The shorts have taken a position in advance. If the story does not play out as expected, they cover and move on to the next trade.

    While no one knows for sure, this sort of rush of buying is typical.

    Thanks for your comment.

    Jeff
    Aug 11 09:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing the Week Ahead: Paradise for Pundits [View article]
    wm -- I congratulate you and reading both the article and the comments. You present an interesting perspective.

    One of the reasons that I like the Hamilton perspective is that it is non-ideological. I aspire to the same.

    Thanks for your comment.

    Jeff
    Aug 8 09:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Now Is the Time to Go Back Into the Market. Here's the Stock to Start With [View article]
    richjoy -- I usually stick to general advice, but occasionally there is a stock that seems to warrant special attention.

    No single stock is right for everyone, but I tried to pick one with yield and my own evaluation of limited risk. Obviously, many others disagree. I got an email citing the stock price for the last fifteen years as evidence that it could not move higher!

    I hope that you have to step up on your buy order!

    Jeff
    Aug 6 09:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Do You Truly Understand Market Risk? [View article]
    retailinvestor -- Just to be clear, this is an article about one aspect of investing. It is not a comprehensive guide. I have discussed the risks in your list (I think all of them) in prior articles, and I certainly review them with clients.

    I understand that you are trying to highlight your list. That is fine and most helpful. I do want the context of this to be clear.

    Thanks for joining in.

    Jeff
    Aug 5 01:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Investors Should Know About the Debt Ceiling Debate [View article]
    ValueAdded -- I certainly did not mean to insult you, and I apologize for anything that might be construed that way.

    I meant the "breathless fear" that we see, hear, and read about every day in the media. I should have been clearer. Obviously I have no idea about your emotions.

    I do think that before you criticize Mr. McTeer's wisdom, you should read more of his work.

    Your program would get you elected in some districts, but not in others. If you insisted on it without compromise, some would think you were posturing!

    I congratulate you on your investment returns, and your ability to distinguish between investment and political decisions.

    Jeff
    Jul 14 03:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding Upside Risk: How the Individual Investor Can Trade Like a Pro [View article]
    retailinvestor - I have seen several studies from retail brokerage and mutual fund companies, all saying the same thing. This one from Morningstar is an example, although the spread is lower than usual. articles.chicagotribun...

    Here is a simulations of market timing: bit.ly/pEIKWO

    If you google individual investor and market timing you will also see a number of academic studies that have references.

    I think I have some links from past blog articles. Of course, there are always some investors who do better.

    90% are probably above average:)

    Jeff
    Jul 13 05:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing the Week Ahead: All Eyes on Earnings [View article]
    Michael -- Steven's interesting hypothesis is that temporary employment smooths the business cycle. After a recession, the first reaction is to pick up temporary workers before increasing permanent hiring. You can see the dip in temp workers after the 2001 recession and long before any new recession. It is true that we have only one past instance to evaluate, an inherent problem in assessing this "new" viewpoint.

    His conclusion, by the way, included an accurate and timely call of a peak in April, but they still do not see an impending recession.

    I appreciate that you are actually looking at the data! Do the indicators you follow suggest a different conclusion?

    Thanks for joining in.

    Jeff
    Jul 10 10:28 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Investors Should Know About the Debt Ceiling Debate [View article]
    WAdem -- I used McTeer as an example of how the process might come to a conclusion. Nothing in my article endorses a particular policy outcome.

    There is plenty of room to debate tax equity on hundreds of specific issues. That is yet another reason why this should not be part of the debt limit legislation.

    So to be clear, we are all free to make points like yours. As a practical matter, the GOP has an entrenched position on tax rates. There is still the matter of the eventual expiration of the Bush-era tax cuts.

    Jeff
    Jul 9 10:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Investors Should Know About the Debt Ceiling Debate [View article]
    Value Added -- Posturing is what legislative leaders do when they want to do the right thing and still get re-elected.

    You can get stuck in a "Mr. Smith goes to Washington mode" which is what most people who never took any political science think should happen.

    What would you do if you were in Congress?

    And this breathless fear about the existence of the republic is going to cost you money in the long run.

    I suggest that you go to McTeer's blog and read about twenty articles.

    Just a thought....

    Jeff
    Jul 7 09:34 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Investors Should Know About the Debt Ceiling Debate [View article]
    expatsp -- This is an interesting article, and we all appreciate the pointer.

    I think that we still have many twists and turns before the finish line.

    Thanks for joining in.

    Jeff
    Jul 7 09:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Use Discipline When Trading the 200-Day Moving Average [View article]
    Change - No hypocrisy here:) As I said in the conclusion to the article and in response to some comments, I invest in Apple based upon the fundamentals. I change my weighting occasionally and my sell rule relates to when it hits a certain target price or the earnings expectations change. I have several other articles on this theme.

    In this piece I am trying to illustrate a popular method for people who choose not to do this constant review of the fundamentals. I know that many people adopt a system, but then do not follow it.

    I agree with you about sticking to the system rules, and that is what I was trying to emphasize here.

    I can see where I generated some confusion. The paragraph starting with "I am using" should have said "To illustrate this point I am using."

    Thanks for the comments and I'll use them to improve this for the next edition.

    Jeff
    Jul 4 10:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing the Week Ahead: Lurching From One Crisis to Another [View article]
    yoohootoo -- The reporting and schedule can be found here:
    www.newyorkfed.org/mar...

    Having said this, I do not think the daily timing is very important to watch. These purchases are very small compared to both the overall balance sheet and especially to daily trading in treasuries, which is over $500 billion.

    Jeff
    Jul 3 11:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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