Seeking Alpha

Jeff Miller

 
View as an RSS Feed
View Jeff Miller's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Is the Greek Crisis a Buying Opportunity or a Serious Risk to the Financial System? [View article]
    Angel -- We have been dealing with this story for more than a year, with numerous predictions of the Euro going to parity, dominoes falling, and the like. Today the average investor was treated to non-stop coverage of "How the Greek situation affects you!" including a possible loss of money market funds.

    My article is not meant to deny that there are risks. It is more a guide to what we should watch. But we need some objective measure of risk, not speculation and analogies. I know that you embrace a similar idea of analyzing the world. I suggest that if there was imminent insolvency or domino tipping we would see the reaction in assorted market indicators of the type included in the SLFSI. I continue my research on this indicator.

    As usual, thanks for sharing your thoughts.

    Jeff
    Jun 16 06:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is the Greek Crisis a Buying Opportunity or a Serious Risk to the Financial System? [View article]
    Asquared -- This is why I encouraged people to read the review of The Big Short. I covered this ground in that article. The main idea is that in 2008 there was a huge appetite for "AAA" rated paper. The supply was exhausted, so the Street complied by creating more of it synthetically. This market was far larger than the actual sub-prime market, and it was not measured or published anywhere.

    The current situation is not a good analogy, beginning with the concept of demand for Greek debt. As a result, I think the numbers we have tell the story, although we do not know how much individual banks have hedged.

    I hope this clarifies a bit, and thanks for your comment.

    Jeff
    Jun 16 06:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is the Greek Crisis a Buying Opportunity or a Serious Risk to the Financial System? [View article]
    Peter -- Thanks for adding the links and comments about the DTCC. I look there as well, but I have not seen anything on how much is hedged.

    Any more pointers are most welcome.

    Thanks,

    Jeff
    Jun 16 05:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Want to Become a Successful Investor (Even in This Environment)? Here's What It Takes [View article]
    Nunay - Successful traders agree that the effect of fundamental changes is too slow to be helpful. My friends who were the best floor traders on the Chicago exchanges felt they could trade successfully without even knowing what they were trading -- just a price series, volume, etc. Systems like our "Felix" model do not include fundamental data because we tested those possibilities and the variables did not add predictive value.

    There are traders whose time frame is less than one second, and many who trade within one day. For my purposes, I think that our three-week Felix horizon is trading. When I write for investors, I am thinking about a time horizon of a few years.

    If one of my investment choices moves quickly to my target price, as in your example, I would sell. I am still an investor.

    I hope this is helpful.

    Jeff
    Jun 16 02:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing the Week Ahead: Fears Worse Than Fundamental Conditions [View article]
    James -- I can see from the "spewed" word that you believe you have a point to make, but I can't figure out what it is.

    If you read the article again you will see that I did not quote anyone with a Wall Street bias. All of the sources are independent of sell side firms. As objective readers know, my own approach ranges over various long and short products. Like other independent investment advisors, I make no commission on selling stocks. We all believe in data. Many of us believe that performance over a long period of time and a wide range of markets is important.

    Perhaps we could all join you in the discussion if you directed your attention to something specific from the article.

    Just a thought...

    Jeff
    Jun 13 12:48 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing the Week Ahead: Fears Worse Than Fundamental Conditions [View article]
    dancing diva -- I never give a complete list of upcoming data -- just those that I think are important. I do not place much emphasis on either the Philly Fed or Empire State surveys. Sometimes I mention that they will be important only if the reading is a big surprise.

    There are plenty of sources for people who want a comprehensive calendar, but few who try to focus.

    Thanks for joining in.

    Jeff
    Jun 12 01:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing the Week Ahead: Fears Worse Than Fundamental Conditions [View article]
    Here is the correct Santoli link: online.barrons.com/art...

    Sorry --

    Jeff
    Jun 12 10:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's Why QE2 Isn't Really Ending [View article]
    expatsp -- Thanks for the encouragement.

    I have been commenting in my weekly overview pieces on the debt ceiling prospects. I expect a lot of posturing and early negative votes. Then, when some concessions are made, victory can be declared.

    I am confident about the eventual outcome, but the process may be exasperating and worrisome for some investors.

    Jeff
    Jun 3 05:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's Why QE2 Isn't Really Ending [View article]
    Michael -- It is actually 100% of the auction bought by the Fed. The rest did not trade. This is a news report of today's New York Fed Permanent Open Market Operation. Fed actions are done through dealers. They announce what they want to buy (or sell) and invite bids from the primary dealers. When finished, they announce the transactions as you saw in this news article. They use this process to get the best prices. The trades are in line with the rest of the market.

    As I explained, these actions are a small part of the entire Treasury market, where daily volume is $500 billion to a trillion, not including futures activity.

    Here is an explanation of the process:

    www.newyorkfed.org/abo...

    I hope this clarifies a point that so many get wrong -- and so insistently. This is a very minor part of the day's trading.

    Jeff
    Jun 3 02:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's Why QE2 Isn't Really Ending [View article]
    sleek -- thanks to you, and to others who made similar comments.

    My biggest reward from working on these articles is knowing that some have a better understanding of the issues.

    I appreciate that you took the time to comment.

    I am delighted that we also stimulated some discussion.

    Thanks again,

    Jeff
    Jun 2 10:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's Why QE2 Isn't Really Ending [View article]
    Michael -- I don't see the need to accuse the PIMCO folks of lying, but I do think they are talking their book and using a very misleading comparison.

    The chart you cite is a distribution of ownership. I am citing daily trading volumes. Both are correct. No one is lying.

    My comparison is more useful if you are trying to estimate the effect on price if a buyer leaves the market. As I said, I'll cover it more completely in the next article.

    Jeff
    Jun 2 03:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Quest for Yield (Part 4): Covered Writes, The Single Best Method for Generating Income [View article]
    Tack -- You are correct about the early exercise potential. It will not happen for an OTM call. For in-the-money calls there is a calculating comparing the dividend to the stock cost of carry until expiration.

    I routinely watch for this in positions that I manage, but it seemed a bit arcane for a survey article.

    There are many possible variations based upon the choice of stock and option strike. Thanks for pointing this one out.

    Jeff
    Jun 2 03:21 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's Why QE2 Isn't Really Ending [View article]
    OptionManiac -- My next installment in this series will take up the "who will buy?" question. Most estimates are that rates are only a little lower than they would otherwise have been. Most people seem not to realize that the Fed purchases were less than 1% of daily volume.

    Thanks,

    Jeff
    Jun 2 03:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's Why QE2 Isn't Really Ending [View article]
    brien -- sorry for the omission. Here it is:

    moneywatch.bnet.com/ec.../

    Thanks,

    Jeff
    Jun 2 03:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Quest for Yield (Part 4): Covered Writes, The Single Best Method for Generating Income [View article]
    meryle -- This works just fine if you have enough confidence in the stock.

    Thanks for the suggestions.

    Jeff
    Jun 2 12:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
1,612 Comments
2,722 Likes