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Jeff Miller

 
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  • Weighing the Week Ahead: Lurching From One Crisis to Another [View article]
    yoohootoo -- The reporting and schedule can be found here:
    www.newyorkfed.org/mar...

    Having said this, I do not think the daily timing is very important to watch. These purchases are very small compared to both the overall balance sheet and especially to daily trading in treasuries, which is over $500 billion.

    Jeff
    Jul 3 11:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Use Discipline When Trading the 200-Day Moving Average [View article]
    LiberTea -- Yes, taxes are always a consideration.

    As I noted, I do not use the 200 day EMA for investment accounts. I use my own assessment of the fundamentals, and I keep taxes in mind.

    Having said this, sometimes it is right to sell a stock no matter the tax consequences.

    Good point.

    Jeff
    Jul 3 10:12 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Use Discipline When Trading the 200-Day Moving Average [View article]
    Gunny -- I did hold the stock and do nothing, since the fundamentals did not change. I am describing a popular system which, as you can tell from the chart, is followed by many.

    Jeff
    Jul 2 06:27 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Profit From Insights About Government [View article]
    Tom and Angel --

    First, I agree that we should not ignore the possibility. I monitor the news on this subject constantly. And thanks for the pointer.

    With that in mind, every development so far is consistent with the political theater that I have been forecasting, so I have no reason to revise my forecast.

    Here is another analysis, focused on Boehner support.

    www.economist.com/blog...

    Meanwhile, the bond market is not reflecting default concern. This may change later this month.

    I appreciate the comments -- always wise from both of you.

    Jeff
    Jul 1 10:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Mythology Surrounding Earnings Estimates [View article]
    Fabien Hug -- Why do you think the Oracle news was poor. My read was that the report was excellent except for hardware sales.

    We can discuss how much that is a part of the core business, the effect on ORCL earnings, and implications for others.

    I did not see much to worry about, so I am very interested in your take.

    Thanks,

    Jeff
    Jun 28 10:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analyzing QE II's Effect [View article]
    dcfusor -- We only have a week or so to go. What do you think will happen at the end of the QE II purchases? Will there be no one to buy our debt, as Gross has warned? Will there be failed auctions? What will happen?

    I predict business as usual, so we can reconvene here shortly and see who was right.

    Bill Gross has built a huge and successful business. Part of the way he does so is by talking his book. He has a long history of erroneous predictions that would be costly to stock investors if they were paying any attention. Dow 5000 is a notable example.

    I prefer to buy individual bonds for my clients, but if I were to invest in a fund, PIMCO would be at or near the top of the list.

    So he can be a successful manager and still be completely wrong about the market for US Treasuries. In fact, he might be wrong on purpose. We just don't know.

    One thing you do know about me is that I am not selling a fund. Each client is unique. I advise on asset allocations,adjusting with circumstances. I am more objective and aligned with the client than is Bill Gross, who has a bully pulpit to sell his fund.

    And by the way, we don't know if Gross could even do a simple Supply/Demand analysis. He is a psych major:) Lots of big shots do not have the background knowledge that you might expect. His skill set was obviously helpful for building the fund. He now has plenty of top-flight economists, all of whom seem to toe the party line.

    I am going to pass on discussing the conspiracy theories, but thanks for bringing up Bill Gross.

    Jeff
    Jun 22 11:59 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analyzing QE II's Effect [View article]
    LJK - The Fed does take account of psychology. I think they have been quite clear that restoring confidence about deflation fighting was the point of the QE efforts. Others have spun various tales about money going from the Fed and into the markets.

    So you are correct.

    Jeff
    Jun 22 06:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Analyzing QE II's Effect [View article]
    enigmaman -- Any process of forecasting begins with understanding. If you had the wrong idea about the causal link, you would not have expected the alleged effects to reverse three months before the buying ended.

    Similarly, it might be helpful to know that the bond market will not have a big immediate spike in interest rates. Or that the dollar will not magically get stronger (although it might be oversold anyway).

    In my own analysis I find it very helpful to use data to determine what is really going on and then analyze perceptions. I often choose a contrarian approach when I think that the reality will become clear soon enough.

    Having said this, we all know that short-term market behavior is ruled by perceptions whether they are accurate or not.

    Good question....

    Jeff
    Jun 22 10:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing the Week Ahead: Bernanke Meets the Press, Round 2 [View article]
    Old Trader -- So far I have not seen downward revisions in the forward earnings data. I am sure that Q2 earnings for some companies will be affected by Japan and higher energy prices. We will see the same discussion that we now have -- whether this is a one off effect or the start of the long-awaited profit margin compression.

    With this in mind, I think there is a high level of skepticism in the market -- future earnings, the economy, leadership, potential crises. Unlike others, I think that much of this was present even before the correction.

    As we both know, prices can still go lower, especially if some technical levels do not hold.

    What do you think?

    Jeff
    Jun 20 05:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is the Greek Crisis a Buying Opportunity or a Serious Risk to the Financial System? [View article]
    AlbionWood -- It is better to be clear about what is known and what is not. This is an article about what we should all be watching, with what I described as preliminary conclusions. Too many express certainty on topics where they really do not know.

    We know the size of the CDS market, but not how much is hedged. Various sources are providing a trickle of information. We can all watch and share as several on this thread are doing. It is helpful.

    If you read The Big Short story you will see why I do not see this as an analogy to 2008. It is unfortunate that so many profit economically or politically from maintaining a perpetual climate of fear.

    But these folks are not treading water -- they are decisive and certain.

    I hope this clarifies a bit. It is a problem of writing a timely article on a developing situation.

    Jeff
    Jun 17 10:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is the Greek Crisis a Buying Opportunity or a Serious Risk to the Financial System? [View article]
    John -- Good point. Most analysts are not worried unless the alleged "contagion" reaches Spain.

    I am trying to add a little perspective, and your question helps with that.

    Jeff
    Jun 16 09:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is the Greek Crisis a Buying Opportunity or a Serious Risk to the Financial System? [View article]
    Peter - -Thanks for your continuing commentary on this subject. It is nice to have participation from someone trading the market.

    Just to clarify, anyone can get the ISDA master agreement. It is the specific contracts (term sheets) that you are citing. I believe that there is some ambiguity over the definition of a "credit event" and I appreciate your comments on the possible winners and losers.

    When I comment on what is unknown, I am referring to the level of hedging for each trader/bank, but also my conclusion that there is not a "secondary market" like the synthetic CDO's that were the main culprit in 2008.

    Thanks again,

    Jeff
    Jun 16 07:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is the Greek Crisis a Buying Opportunity or a Serious Risk to the Financial System? [View article]
    Thanks TX and others who found this helpful. It is a developing story. I am sure we'll be watching it for months to come.

    Jeff
    Jun 16 06:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is the Greek Crisis a Buying Opportunity or a Serious Risk to the Financial System? [View article]
    Angel -- We have been dealing with this story for more than a year, with numerous predictions of the Euro going to parity, dominoes falling, and the like. Today the average investor was treated to non-stop coverage of "How the Greek situation affects you!" including a possible loss of money market funds.

    My article is not meant to deny that there are risks. It is more a guide to what we should watch. But we need some objective measure of risk, not speculation and analogies. I know that you embrace a similar idea of analyzing the world. I suggest that if there was imminent insolvency or domino tipping we would see the reaction in assorted market indicators of the type included in the SLFSI. I continue my research on this indicator.

    As usual, thanks for sharing your thoughts.

    Jeff
    Jun 16 06:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is the Greek Crisis a Buying Opportunity or a Serious Risk to the Financial System? [View article]
    Asquared -- This is why I encouraged people to read the review of The Big Short. I covered this ground in that article. The main idea is that in 2008 there was a huge appetite for "AAA" rated paper. The supply was exhausted, so the Street complied by creating more of it synthetically. This market was far larger than the actual sub-prime market, and it was not measured or published anywhere.

    The current situation is not a good analogy, beginning with the concept of demand for Greek debt. As a result, I think the numbers we have tell the story, although we do not know how much individual banks have hedged.

    I hope this clarifies a bit, and thanks for your comment.

    Jeff
    Jun 16 06:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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