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Jeff Miller

 
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  • Some Thoughts On Obama And Job Creation [View article]
    Andrew -- I think we'll see this in the promised follow-up on deficit reduction as well as the work of the Supercommittee. The general tax issues did not fit well in the context of a "jobs" speech.

    I take your point about looking for "new" but he obviously was trying to include a lot of ideas that already had significant GOP support, the building blocks for a compromise.

    Jeff
    Sep 9, 2011. 03:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Some Thoughts On Obama And Job Creation [View article]
    James -- I wonder. I don't think that any speech would have pleased more than 25-30% of the people. I tried to suggest in earlier articles that "bold" works best when you can identify a common enemy and/or have the votes!

    People do not agree on the problem, the causes, or how to measure it, so they will not agree on the solution.

    Jeff
    Sep 9, 2011. 03:45 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Some Thoughts On Obama And Job Creation [View article]
    Dibber -- What makes you think that I do not support all three of your suggestions? I am not ideologically opposed to any of them. I like pragmatic solutions and understand how compromises work. Suppose that I agree entirely with your agenda. Some compromise is still necessary if we are to make any headway.

    Jeff
    Sep 9, 2011. 03:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. equity market response has been muted following the President's speech, with S&P 500 futures are currently flat in after hours trading.  [View news story]
    Don't forget to factor in the negative news about the 9/11 threat. If you are going to comment on this, do it right!
    Sep 8, 2011. 08:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Of Job Growth And Recessions [View article]
    If Tim looked a little harder, he could find many charts with a different conclusion. Meanwhile, Dean Baker did a much better job analyzing the same data:

    seekingalpha.com/artic...

    Personally, I would get more from SA if these groups of stories had more balance.
    Sep 8, 2011. 08:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Create Jobs: A Note To Obama [View article]
    Good article, and thanks for the nice mention, James. Readers might enjoy checking out my latest piece on this subject.

    seekingalpha.com/artic...
    Sep 8, 2011. 06:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding The Jobs Debate [View article]
    mdmrjsds -- Thanks for taking a second look.

    Concerning the turnover, I know the source talked about business births and deaths, but this is not from a model. The report is actual state employment office data, which is why it is eight months old.

    It points out that 72% of the net job gains come in companies with over 250 employees.

    I understand that this seems implausible given the experience of people like us. It did to me as well when I first started studying it a few years ago. This is the reason to look at data.

    Thanks for following through on this.

    Jeff
    Sep 8, 2011. 04:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding The Jobs Debate [View article]
    Tack -- As you know, I try to avoid partisan commentary, mostly because I think it distracts from my investment messages. For that reason I am abstaining on most of your comment.

    Let me join in, however, in agreeing that there does not seem to be any policy coordination among the various executive agencies. I actually taught about that once -- Richard Neustadt's Presidential Power.

    Thanks as always for your thoughts.

    Jeff
    Sep 8, 2011. 04:14 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding The Jobs Debate [View article]
    mykie -- I am hopeful that we will see progress before the election.

    Most actual policy solutions are not "Marshall Plan" in size. They are a combination of improvements on several fronts.

    Most people -- including media types and opinion leaders -- find it easier to see and talk about problems than solutions. If we had a few areas of improvement, and it started to show in the data, maybe the changing psychology would do the rest.

    If we don't make progress, chances are the leadership will change.

    Meanwhile, nearly every story you see, including my fellow contributors on SA, are emphasizing the negative.

    Jeff
    Sep 8, 2011. 02:50 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding The Jobs Debate [View article]
    mdmrjsds -- The article states jobs created per BUSINESS day, not per calendar day. Excluding weekends is a reasonable way to think about job creation. In any case, the arithmetic is correct.

    As to your impressions about turnover, I respectfully suggest that you read the source I cited. It gives a breakdown by business size. 7 million jobs lost (and gained) each quarter is pretty much in line with what we know about weekly jobless claims running at 400K or so per week. Not all jobs have employment insurance.

    Briefly put, my facts are accurate.

    Jeff
    Sep 8, 2011. 12:21 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Parade Of Government Speeches, U.S. And Worldwide [View article]
    Fabien Hug -- This week's Barron's has some upbeat commentary from quite a few big-name strategists.

    ...and I have quite a few cautious holdings, depending on the program.

    Meanwhile, the Europeans need to figure out how much unification they want. Most of my argument is that the US exposure is not as great as many suggest.

    Thanks for joining in with your interesting perspective.

    Jeff
    Sep 4, 2011. 07:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Parade Of Government Speeches, U.S. And Worldwide [View article]
    Michael -- Let me try to put this in perspective. If you multiply the weekly claims by 4 weeks in a month. That is a loss of 1.6 million jobs, and there are more than four weeks in most months.

    The actual underlying dynamics, from Q410, the most recent available are as follows:

    Gross job gains -- 7 million
    Gross job losses -- 6.4 million (this is where new claims show up)
    Jobs created by new businesses -- 1.3 million.
    Jobs lost by closing businesses -- 1.2 million

    This is all actual data -- no modeling or estimating, but we don't get it for eight months.

    In this context, the change in the labor force or the participation rate is relevant, but the effect if very small. Everyone looks at the initial claims since it is solid data, delivered weekly with only a one-week delay. It is only one part of the story.

    Good question, and I hope this helps.

    Jeff
    Sep 4, 2011. 10:51 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Parade Of Government Speeches, U.S. And Worldwide [View article]
    Note to readers: In checking things this morning I noticed an error in my reference to Bob, Dieli's work. The quote cited is from his August report. In the most recent report he reaffirmed the conclusion. The chart in question is Chart 8 (not Chart 6) for private payrolls.

    I apologize for the error, and I have asked Seeking Alpha to update the article with the corrections and the chart in question. Getting the links right is the most time-consuming part of this article, and I know that it is important to readers.

    Jeff
    Sep 4, 2011. 10:30 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • August Employment Preview [View article]
    Angel -- I should have given a more complete answer. I have followed the work on the household survey and the attempt to explain possible differences.

    It is an interesting topic, and a good one. If you and I were colleagues at a university, we might point an enterprising PhD student toward this topic.

    Meanwhile, there are so many topics and so little time! Most bloggers do not do any independent research, content to do big quotes, copy charts, and offer opinions. My research focus right now is on the SFLSI and maintaining our ETF models. One problem is that the market is focused on payroll jobs.

    Put another way, if I cannot get anyone to pay attention to sampling error, the difference between job creation and net job creation, and the truth about the birth/death adjustment, why embark on a new front?

    Thanks for your honest and helpful suggestions!

    Jeff
    Sep 2, 2011. 10:25 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • August Employment Preview [View article]
    Angel -- All of our analysis has been based on the change in payroll jobs. We also use the final data series -- after all revisions and benchmarking.

    The household survey looks at people, not jobs. One person could have two jobs, for example. It also probably does better at capturing the self-employed and start ups.

    Anyway, that was our approach when we did the research.

    Jeff
    Sep 2, 2011. 02:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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