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Jeff Miller

 
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  • Weighing The Week Ahead: A Tipping Point For Stocks? [View article]
    dancing diva -- Why do you think the S&P 500 (or other US stocks for that matter) must follow the emerging markets.

    It is true that some specific companies are involved in these markets, but I am curious about your reasoning.

    Thanks for the suggestion.

    Jeff
    Jun 9 06:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: A Tipping Point For Stocks? [View article]
    ba419adv. Simply put, yes I have. I wrote about the relationship in this article: http://bit.ly/rFfYJ7.

    I'll try to update the research this summer, but it will emphasize what I wrote then.

    The key element to remember is that higher rates will come along with a stronger economy. The better economy will also help more people qualify for loans through home values and employment.

    Beware of the pop economists who think that one variable can move in isolation.

    Thanks for identifying a key question!

    Jeff
    Jun 9 06:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Free Research Results Can Be Costly [View article]
    Simont -- Yes, indeed:)
    Jun 7 12:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For More Volatility? [View article]
    Thanks Perry --

    And thanks also to the regular readers who join in the discussion. I think it helps all of us reflect on the week ahead :)

    Jeff
    May 27 08:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For More Volatility? [View article]
    daro -- In Bill McBride's article he points out a combination of factors including revisions, sales, and inventory. The sales are still low, but the improvement is significant.

    This is a lot better than many have been suggesting -- especially those that emphasize the foreclosure inventory.

    Calculated Risk was excellent in identifying and analyzing housing problems, earning the respect of everyone. I watch Bill's analysis carefully, and frequently highlight items here, as you know.

    Anyway, that's what I see from his summary, but discussion is always most welcome. He also provides a lot of local color in some other posts.

    Jeff
    May 27 11:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For More Volatility? [View article]
    Dancing diva -- Thanks for pointing out the error. I have submitted a correction. As you know, I like to keep things accurate.

    I agree with your point about the mini flash crash, which I did consider including. I think that they are in the process of changing this rule, but it will be too late for those who had stop orders entered.

    Thanks again..

    Jeff
    May 27 10:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For More Volatility? [View article]
    mjc99 -- I have submitted a correction.

    Thanks for pointing this out.

    Jeff
    May 27 10:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Are You Ready For Some Fedspeak? [View article]
    Left Banker -- Please see response to Cliff.

    and thanks..

    Jeff
    May 19 11:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Are You Ready For Some Fedspeak? [View article]
    Cliff (and Left Banker as well) --

    Feel free to view it as good news. I pondered this item, along with the news about the debt limit not being an issue until autumn (which I chose not to include this week).

    For what it is worth, here is my thinking --The pace of debt reduction is either good or bad depending upon your perspective. I usually classify good and bad news based upon market reaction, but this story does not generate an immediate impact.

    A rapid pace of debt reduction (both household and government) reflects one set of objectives. More current consumption helps the economy, so there is a tradeoff.

    I am seriously concerned about debt issues (as you will see in an upcoming piece) but more urgently concerned about economic growth.

    But I take your point. If that is my interpretation, I certainly should explain it better!

    Thanks,

    Jeff
    May 19 11:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Consumers Step Up - Especially On Housing? [View article]
    Joe -- Thanks both for adding the link on your site and also for stopping by to tell us.

    Nice job of spotting something that nearly everyone would miss.

    Jeff
    May 13 04:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Consumers Step Up - Especially On Housing? [View article]
    Richjoy - ZH is among the two or three most profitable blogging enterprises. Telling people what they want to hear is a much better business model than telling them what they need to know!

    Jeff
    May 13 09:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: New Leadership For Stocks? [View article]
    Ron - I agree with the value gained from reading a well-argued analysis from good sources, even when you know there is a bias.

    As to the deep look into the employment data, most of it is inconsistent spinning. The analysis of seasonal adjustments is really terrible. The choice of indicators varies with what will convey the worst impression in a given month. They manage to criticize the B/D adjustment, for example when it adds jobs, but also when it subtracts them if the number has changed.

    So the problem is that you need to be an expert to spot the errors.

    They also do not cite sources in a way that allows you to verify their work.

    You can get a more reasonable bearish perspective from John Mauldin.

    But once again, you are on the right track. Read widely and think critically.

    Jeff
    May 6 08:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Interpreting Mixed Signals [View article]
    Lloyd -- The intent of my response was to congratulate you on your comment and also for providing another citation for us. I repeat that.

    My blog agenda currently has about 50 items on it, several of which are seriously overdue. I follow many things that I do not write about at that particular moment. That especially includes the work of several people who have earned special attention. Rortybomb is one of those people. I had the good fortune to spend all day Friday at the Kauffman Conference sitting next to him and also at dinner. We covered many topics, but he did not mention his upcoming article.

    The weekly piece is difficult to assemble, partly because so much is left on the cutting room floor. I don't do the "Silver Bullet" thing very often. Sometimes it is something that people have not seen, but should. Other times it is already in the news but deserves additional recognition. I am always open to suggestions.

    As to the conclusions from R & R I believe that this book was costly for many. I hope to write something more extensive on this topic soon, but I am not going to compose the article in the comments.

    There is a general "world ending" meme that sells well with many potential investors. While you and I would not do so, many others use this as a way of selling unattractive investments that are illiquid and include big commissions.

    It was not the intent of the authors, but it was the result.

    Thanks again for your thoughtful comments and the links. Let us revisit this when I get around to the bigger installment. Meanwhile, you are most welcome to link to your own work, which we would all find interesting.

    Jeff
    Apr 24 08:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Interpreting Mixed Signals [View article]
    Lloyd -- I have not missed anything in this discussion!

    I urge all to follow. The initial R&R responses seem quite lame, but there is more to come.

    There is a danger in your characterization of this as "pro-government" and the opposite.

    I like to think about pro-investor and pro-economy. It is a better why to succeed as investors.

    Anyone who got scared Witless (TM OldProf) by the R&R stuff has lost a lot of money. There was no tipping point....

    Sorry about those who bought gold thinking that the US was the next Greece.....

    That is what we should be analyzing.

    Jeff
    Apr 23 11:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Interpreting Mixed Signals [View article]
    Sideways. Felix sometimes also goes short via inverse funds.

    Jeff
    Apr 22 11:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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