Weighing The Week Ahead: Signs Of A New Bull Market? [View article]
DD -- I am pointing out the obvious:
Those who made unwise decisions based upon who won the election were looking at the wrong thing. I think this was clear in the article.
I am obviously not clear about your point -- perhaps because you do not personally write articles with a clearly-stated thesis. Am I supposed to follow your personal recommendations from the comments?
I hope you have done well with your investments, but I do not track the comments of everyone joining in on our discussions.
You and I have a small disagreement about multiples, and we will revisit that when interest rates move higher. You will learn that my research is correct.
I am surprised and discouraged by the nit-picking on this article. Anyone who has followed the indicators I recommend has done well over the past year. I know from email that there are many who have profited. Meanwhile, the SA commenting group is in denial.
My focus is on helping investors find the right themes. Those who were negative on Obama, the economy, etc. just completely blew it.
They let politics dictate, as I pointed out. If you were not among those, congratulations. It has nothing to do with "misreading you."
Weighing The Week Ahead: Signs Of A New Bull Market? [View article]
Dancing Diva --
First and foremost, I NEVER confuse correlation and causation. I help you and others to avoid this error. If you don't see that, you need to review my history.
This citation from VIgna was simply a statement of fact. Those who had a political opinion screwed up -- as usual. Those who follow me as political agnostics will do better.
I have offered a politically neutral approach to the market, and I have done so for many years. You look at prospective earnings. Ignore headlines. Stick to actual data. When predicting politics, you look for those who have expertise and ignore pundits without credentials.
Weighing The Week Ahead: Signs Of A New Bull Market? [View article]
Daro -- I want to emphasize that I manage several different programs. The objectives and time frames vary. This is why I do a trader and an investor time frame each week.
The comment on European sectors refers to the ETF trading program following our "Felix" model. Our investment and enhanced yield programs have a variety of equity positions. Our aggressive trading program focuses on the NASDAQ 100.
Felix looks at our trading universe of 28 ETFs. The universe includes bonds, some commodities, inverse ETFs, some representative foreign ETFs, and broad equity sectors.
Felix does not pay any attention to my fundamental metrics, although I do pay attention to Felix! When the Felix choices seem to have a particular message, I pass it along. It is all about the current trend.
Weighing The Week Ahead: Time To Focus On Expectations? [View article]
daro -- This is based upon our trading universe of 28 ETFs. We do not trade in any ETF that is in the penalty box. Since there are at least three ETFs that are OK to buy, we are still fully invested in trading accounts -- but there is a foreign tilt. For a while last week we only had two positions.
Every good trading system has a "setup" that is right for the method. The best traders wait for the good setups, willing to be in cash if nothing is there.
That is how we look at it for the three-week trading horizon.
Business Cycle Forecasting: The Superlative Results Of Robert F. Dieli [View article]
Dancing diva -- It is not that simple. You can follow changes in the other indicators. This is not like a light switch. That's the best I can do in the comments.
I strongly disagree with your conclusion that we won't know if it works until the next recession. Anyone who has been following my series since I started these indicators has already benefited.
The Fed's balance sheet does not really have anything to do with this, but it is the source of a lot of misinformation. I have a couple of articles coming on that as well.
As I say, I am trying to respond, but I can't write a whole article here. Just keep reading.
Business Cycle Forecasting: The Superlative Results Of Robert F. Dieli [View article]
Adreno - Bob developed and used the model in the 80's. You can see more about the story behind the model here: http://bit.ly/VQo4lb
He has monitored this carefully over decades, and the combination of variables is better than using them individually.
In my work I have been building and evaluating models for many years. If this were a back-tested model, the results would "appear" to be much better. It would be easy to fix a couple of the small discrepancies with a tweak or two.
Nearly everything presented to us is backtested, and people have been accustomed to seeing perfection in the (overfit) results.
To summarize, I had concerns like yours in mind when I selected this approach as the best of many that I reviewed.
Business Cycle Forecasting: The Superlative Results Of Robert F. Dieli [View article]
Dancing Diva - The spread is not trying to indicate "strength" but merely the probability of a cycle event. It is not like the popular indicators, and for good reason. Recessions usually start when things are strong, not when they are weak.
There is always the possibility that structural changes are working on the relationship, and that the trigger point is moving. This is a question that Bob asks (of himself and others) all of the time. If you watched the videos, you know that there is plenty of context for the interpretation. He also has a group of coincident indicators that he monitors and reports on every month.
As you will see in the next segment, I do the same. This is not just a mechanical application of arithmetic, but that is a starting point. None of the coincident indicators suggest an imminent problem.
Recession Talk Is Dissipating [View article]
Jeff
ECRI's Public Indicators Continue To Undermine Insistence Of A Recession [View article]
Is there a metric that you might use to determine whether or not your forecast was accurate?
Just wondering?
Weighing The Week Ahead: Signs Of A New Bull Market? [View article]
Those who made unwise decisions based upon who won the election were looking at the wrong thing. I think this was clear in the article.
I am obviously not clear about your point -- perhaps because you do not personally write articles with a clearly-stated thesis. Am I supposed to follow your personal recommendations from the comments?
I hope you have done well with your investments, but I do not track the comments of everyone joining in on our discussions.
You and I have a small disagreement about multiples, and we will revisit that when interest rates move higher. You will learn that my research is correct.
I am surprised and discouraged by the nit-picking on this article. Anyone who has followed the indicators I recommend has done well over the past year. I know from email that there are many who have profited. Meanwhile, the SA commenting group is in denial.
My focus is on helping investors find the right themes. Those who were negative on Obama, the economy, etc. just completely blew it.
They let politics dictate, as I pointed out. If you were not among those, congratulations. It has nothing to do with "misreading you."
May we please move on?
Jeff
Weighing The Week Ahead: Signs Of A New Bull Market? [View article]
First and foremost, I NEVER confuse correlation and causation. I help you and others to avoid this error. If you don't see that, you need to review my history.
This citation from VIgna was simply a statement of fact. Those who had a political opinion screwed up -- as usual. Those who follow me as political agnostics will do better.
I have offered a politically neutral approach to the market, and I have done so for many years. You look at prospective earnings. Ignore headlines. Stick to actual data. When predicting politics, you look for those who have expertise and ignore pundits without credentials.
It is not so hard!
Jeff
Weighing The Week Ahead: Signs Of A New Bull Market? [View article]
The comment on European sectors refers to the ETF trading program following our "Felix" model. Our investment and enhanced yield programs have a variety of equity positions. Our aggressive trading program focuses on the NASDAQ 100.
Felix looks at our trading universe of 28 ETFs. The universe includes bonds, some commodities, inverse ETFs, some representative foreign ETFs, and broad equity sectors.
Felix does not pay any attention to my fundamental metrics, although I do pay attention to Felix! When the Felix choices seem to have a particular message, I pass it along. It is all about the current trend.
I hope this helps.
Jeff
Business Cycle Forecasting: The Superlative Results Of Robert F. Dieli [View article]
Jeff
Weighing The Week Ahead: Signs Of A New Bull Market? [View article]
Jeff
Weighing The Week Ahead: Signs Of A New Bull Market? [View article]
There have been many distortions in the last fifteen years or so.
Jeff
Weighing The Week Ahead: Signs Of A New Bull Market? [View article]
Good points.
Jeff
Weighing The Week Ahead: Time To Focus On Expectations? [View article]
Every good trading system has a "setup" that is right for the method. The best traders wait for the good setups, willing to be in cash if nothing is there.
That is how we look at it for the three-week trading horizon.
Jeff
Business Cycle Forecasting: The Superlative Results Of Robert F. Dieli [View article]
Jeff
Business Cycle Forecasting: The Superlative Results Of Robert F. Dieli [View article]
I strongly disagree with your conclusion that we won't know if it works until the next recession. Anyone who has been following my series since I started these indicators has already benefited.
The Fed's balance sheet does not really have anything to do with this, but it is the source of a lot of misinformation. I have a couple of articles coming on that as well.
As I say, I am trying to respond, but I can't write a whole article here. Just keep reading.
Jeff
Business Cycle Forecasting: The Superlative Results Of Robert F. Dieli [View article]
He has monitored this carefully over decades, and the combination of variables is better than using them individually.
In my work I have been building and evaluating models for many years. If this were a back-tested model, the results would "appear" to be much better. It would be easy to fix a couple of the small discrepancies with a tweak or two.
Nearly everything presented to us is backtested, and people have been accustomed to seeing perfection in the (overfit) results.
To summarize, I had concerns like yours in mind when I selected this approach as the best of many that I reviewed.
Jeff
Business Cycle Forecasting: The Superlative Results Of Robert F. Dieli [View article]
There is always the possibility that structural changes are working on the relationship, and that the trigger point is moving. This is a question that Bob asks (of himself and others) all of the time. If you watched the videos, you know that there is plenty of context for the interpretation. He also has a group of coincident indicators that he monitors and reports on every month.
As you will see in the next segment, I do the same. This is not just a mechanical application of arithmetic, but that is a starting point. None of the coincident indicators suggest an imminent problem.
Jeff
Are You Really A Chart Expert? [View article]
At least people had fun with the topic!
Jeff