Seeking Alpha

Jeff Miller

 
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  • If You Have Been Waiting For An Apple Entry Point, Wait No Longer [View article]
    Jack -- 1992 was great and many times since then, as I noted in the 2006 article linked above. Since we cannot go back to 1992, what should we do now?

    Jeff
    Aug 25 12:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's How to Choose a Great Stock [View article]
    Just to be clear -- You are asking an interesting question, but not the right one from my perspective. My clients might be out of AAPL in one year, or two, or three. I cannot look ahead 15 years and neither can you. I have read the same books, but none of us are buy-and-hold investors any more, so what is the point?

    I have often written about investment time frames as a factor in your decisions. In this case, I think that three years is plenty!

    Jeff
    May 4 10:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's How to Choose a Great Stock [View article]
    poortorich -- When I developed my stock selection method I established a target. I look for stocks that can double in three years. That is a 24% compounded growth rate. Not every choice hits the target, of course. Sometimes the stock improves and the fundamentals improve faster.

    The double in three years idea keeps my focus on reasonable expectations rather than trying to hit home runs. It leads to fewer strikeouts and better overall returns.

    So my answer to your excellent question is that I believe the stock price can double in three years, despite slowing growth. I re-evaluate the situation regularly.

    Jeff
    May 4 04:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Discerning the Real Value in Apple [View article]
    mna - - A popular rule of thumb is to find stocks with a PEG ratio below 1.0. Part of my reason in selecting a forward P/E of 20 was to keep well below this indicator. Even if the rate of earnings growth slowed, this would still be a cheap stock.

    It is always a challenge to predict Apple's next move. One place where I see more earnings growth is from Mac sales. Basically, I think it is a mistake to try to outguess management on growth. That is why I focus on the numbers.

    Thanks for the comment, and those of others who thought carefully about this approach.

    Jeff
    Feb 7 10:41 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Anatomy of a Trade: Three Ways to Play Apple [View article]
    Windsun -- The technical traders don't care about the P/E, just the MA crossover (and similar factors). There were plenty of such comments about Apple.

    As I suggested in the article, you cannot just take a website P/E with trailing earnings. For companies with a lot of cash you need to back that out first. Then make sure you are looking at future earnings that include the AT&T payments. When you have a number, compare it to the earnings growth rate. That is the method used by the fundamental analysts I cited, and it is a strong approach.

    I hope this clarifies things a bit.

    Thanks.

    Jeff


    On Dec 10 03:59 AM Windsun33 wrote:

    > "...Perhaps I acted too soon, since the technical traders are driving
    > the stock lower. "
    >
    > Or perhaps they are looking at the PE of 32'ish and starting to worry.
    Dec 10 10:06 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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