Jeff Miller

ETF Update: High Risk, But Some Opportunity

Enigmaman --- Good question! I can say this honestly because it is one that I raised in discussing the output with Vince. His response was to go back and check some data. He says that we have "robust" results whenever we have a positive rating on a particular ETF. The penalty box exit is now more sensitive in an effort to avoid the "rush for the exits" mentality sometimes seen in this trading.

If we had followed this strategy last week, when things looked about the same, we would have missed a nice week.

Meanwhile, I am compiling data on how the penalty box and the index package have done as macro indicators.

Thanks for taking the time to make your thoughtful comment.

Jeff


On Oct 12 08:30 AM enigmaman wrote:

> Jeff, seems like your trying to thread the eye of a needle as it
> relates to finding some additional green shoots in a garden full
> of weeds. You said "95% (up from 86%) of our sectors are in the "penalty
> box." This means that they are currently disqualified from the buy
> list for technical reasons." At this point in the game wouldn't it
> be wiser for most to just sit on the bench to see how the game plays
> out in the near term, at this level only the seasoned well disciplined
> investor should be sitting at the table.
>
> Why not discuss some other strategies, a holding pattern, an exit
> strategy, some alternative plan, or how to react when there is a
> significant bump in the road, that would seem to be the prudent course
> at this stage of the game and very helpful, that is unless you believe
> we are just in the first few inning of a new ball game with plenty
> of upside. Im not saying think the worst just what if, pays to be
> ready just in case