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Jeff Nielson

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  • Will Silver Now Take the Lead? [View article]
    There are two problems with this analysis.

    First of all, charts are irrelevant to what is taking place in the silver market. China AND India are both buying MASSIVELY more silver this year than last year.

    India's silver-buying has increased nearly 600%, while China's consumption has QUADRUPLED this year. If this buying continues, silver will go straight - irrespective of any T/A.

    The second problem here is the author's arbitrary decision to only look at the silver/gold ratio for the last 120 years. Given that both of these metals have been WIDELY circulated around the globe (going back more than 4,000 years), 120 years is NOTHING.

    The LONG-TERM gold/silver price ratio is approximately 15:1. THAT is the "mean" to which prices are now beginning to revert.

    This conclusion is reinforced by the fact that more than 50 years of grossly under-pricing silver has DESTROYED global stockpiles. This means that a FINAL equilibrium for gold/silver prices will likely be much closer to 10:1 (or even less).

    Does this mean that the price of silver is going to $120/oz? No. By the time that silver reaches triple-digits, the price of gold will be at least in the $3000-$5000/oz price range - which then gives us a more realistic price-target for silver (at a 10:1 ratio).
    Sep 16 12:55 PM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should $10 a Barrel Be the Real Price of Oil? [View article]
    There are many deficiencies in this analysis - some of which have already been noted by others.

    One factor which was NOT mentioned is that the author TOTALLY ignores the recent money-printing orgy of Western bankers - which has SEVERELY debased/diluted are paper currencies (once again).

    It indirectly perpetuates the ridiculous, American myth that the U.S. can print-up INFINITE numbers of U.S. dollars - and then insist those new TRILLIONS will just have just as much purchasing power.

    What is even MORE said is that this author found SEVERAL sources expressing similar idiocy...
    Sep 8 04:22 PM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The IMF's report that the U.S. needs to grow at 14% in perpetuity to close its fiscal gap leads Laurence Kotlikoff to conclude that "our country is broke and can no longer afford no-pain, all-gain" Ponzi solutions. Hard-core Keynesians who say any short-term stimulus won’t affect our ability to handle long-term deficits are "wrong as a simple matter of arithmetic." (also)  [View news story]
    Actually, what I thought were the MOST significant "numbers" in this piece was that the U.S. would have to PERMANENTLY and IMMEDIATELY double all taxes - to simply be able to (one day) reach a balanced budget again.

    Naturally, since all the "little people" have already been squeezed-dry, what this means is that the ONLY hope for the U.S. to ward-off bankruptcy is MASSIVE tax increases on the ultra-rich - to take back some of the $10 - $15 TRILLION which they have plundered from the U.S. economy.
    Aug 11 06:32 PM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold: Shoot-Out at the 24K Corral [View article]
    Yes, quite a "shoot-out" - when the longs are all gone on summer holidays, and the bankster-shorts are up against merely a "skeleton crew".

    Presumably this author would also view "shooting fish in a barrel" to be an exciting sporting event.

    In the real world, all that is happening in the gold market is the SAME thing that happened last year.

    "Gold Market Repeating Pattern of '09"
    Jul 26 12:42 PM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Meredith Whitney on Housing Double Dip [View article]
    I agree with the author that the pot-shots being taken at Whitney are undeserved, however my reasoning is quite different.

    Whitney was right about the Crash of '08, and right AGAIN with respect to the non-existent "U.S. economic recovery" - which is entirely a product of doctored "statistics" and endless hype from the U.S. propaganda-machine.

    The charts in the piece below, (most of which were produced by the Fed) clearly show an economy mired in a Depression.

    "Bernanke Fiddles While U.S. Burns"

    However, for those people who don't want to take my word (and the Fed's charts) for this, just go to

    At that site, respected U.S. economist John Williams SHOWS people how the U.S. economy has simply been "bottom-bouncing" in a Depression-like trough.

    Precious metals commentators didn't go around "high-fiving" each other about being "right" about the collapse of the U.S. housing bubble - since we all saw it coming. Likewise, I don't consider it especially noteworthy to point out the obvious now: there is NO U.S. economic recovery.

    Whitney is clearly, nearly unique among mainstream "experts". What remains unanswered is whether what sets her apart from her peers is competence, or merely honesty?
    Jun 21 02:34 PM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sure, taxpayers hate bailouts, whether of banks or nations, but they need to stop and consider the "costs of the panic and destruction" that would have ensued without them, James Pethokoukis argues. TARP bought U.S. banks time to raise private capital and restore confidence; the European plan "is in the same vein."  [View news story]
    Total B.S.

    In fact, every dollar of NEW U.S. debt now causes U.S. GDP to shrink. This is the FIRST time in history the U.S. economy has been so debt-laden that it is IMPOSSIBLE to generate economic growth with new debt.

    In fact, TARP and the rest of the Wall Street bail-outs has only moved the U.S. CLOSER to implosion - only the banksters benefited from all the hand-outs. And no amount of phony statistics PRETENDING that the U.S. economy is "growing" will change those facts.

    "The U.S. Debt-Trap"
    May 10 07:48 PM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Solving a Sovereign Debt Crisis by Issuing More of the Same [View article]
    What the author has described is the implicit 'Ponzi-scheme economy' which is the inevitable product of relying upon Keynesian mumbo-jumbo.

    Debt-to-infinity is the Keynesian mantra. The PROBLEM is that such debt quickly reaches a level (as it has in the U.S.) where the economy doesn't produce enough revenues to even pay the INTEREST on that debt.

    The "difference" between Euro-land and the U.S. is that Euro nations can't PRETEND to "pay bills" by simply printing money.

    This is WHY the U.S. debt-problems are so much worse: its fraudulent money-printing (where the Federal Reserve lies about its bond-buying) has allowed it to create a debt-mountain many times worse than that of Greece.
    May 10 11:38 AM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is China Easing Out of U.S. Debt? [View article]
    There is no "news" here. China stopped buying U.S. agency and corporate debt a year ago, and have in fact been DUMPING those holdings. The last 6 months have marked the LOWEST purchases of U.S. Treasuries in a decade - the only thing their government will still touch.

    Part of the reason why China's overall holdings of U.S. currency have not declined is because they have engaged in NUMEROUS multi-billion dollar "currency swaps" with their trading partners.

    They give these other nations renminbi, take dollars in return - and STOP using U.S. dollars in their bilateral trade.

    The fact that virtually no one in the U.S. media has noticed this is one more indication of how it has been deluded by its own propaganda.
    Feb 10 03:34 PM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Too Big to Fail Banks: A Simple Solution [View article]
    The author makes a practical suggestion. The one problem is that it has ZERO chance of occurring due to the overwhelming political power of the Wall Street oligarchs.

    The extremely watered-down "reforms" currently before the U.S. Congress are completely bogged-down - due to INTENSE opposition from the oligarchs' political servants.

    The problem which exists is the oligarchies, themselves. We have known since the days of Adam Smith that this day was coming. At one TIME, the U.S. government rigorously prevented the CREATION of oligarchies. Sadly, as the corporate oligarchies have grown (and grown in power) anti-combines enforcement (and prevention) has virtually ceased to exist.

    Removing oligarchs from power (through breaking up the oligarchies) is an incredibly difficult task. However, it is 100% necessary - and the only way this problem will EVER be dealt with is through the support of an overwhelming majority.

    It is thus of critical importance for commentators to explicitly name breaking up these oligarchies as the #1 priority of the American people - ahead of (literally) everything else.
    Nov 10 04:59 PM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GDP Is 'Better' [View article]
    A very good analysis. I just would have liked to see one more element of skepticism - regarding the GDP number, itself.

    Those who follow/subscribe to John Williams and his site "" will tell you that the government's CLAIM of virtually non-existent deflation is absurd. Those who watch the continuing "competitive devaluation" of currencies will remind you that (by definition) "devaluing" currencies translates into HIGHER inflation not low-to-nil inflation. Plug in REAL numbers into the calculation of "real GDP" and you don't get a number anywhere near 3.5%.

    More specifically, I think the areas which the author has focused on ALSO provide compelling evidence that actual U.S. GDP is nowhere near the fantasy-number released.

    Lastly, I'll reiterate what I've said in my own writing. There is no such thing as a "job-less recovery" - especially with a CONSUMER economy (which can't survive without an army of consumers who are RECEIVING PAYCHEQUES).

    Yes, government band-aids mean that this quarter was not as terrible as previous quarters for the U.S. economy - however the claim that the U.S. economy is currently "growing" stretches credibility to the breaking-point.

    There will be no "double-dip recession" in the U.S. - simply because there hasn't been any "recovery". Collapsing at a (temporarily) lower rate is in no way the same thing as moving UP (i.e. recovering). This will become much more obvious as this economic collapse re-accelerates in the near future.
    Oct 29 02:47 PM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Existing Home Sales Haven't Fallen, Despite Gloomy Punditry [View article]
    What NO ONE is paying attention to (including this author) is the news that the percentage of "distressed homes" DROPPED from nearly 50% to only about 1/3. Conversely, while foreclosures and repossessions are SOARING, banks were holding most of those properties OFF THE MARKET.

    Foreclosures/repossess... are on track to EXCEED 4 million units this year. Meanwhile, "existing homes sales" are only at 4.8 million (with that number likely to fall). Thus, unless about 80% of all sales are "distressed properties", then all this means is that banks are building up HUGE inventories of these properties which will HAVE TO BE dumped on the market at a later date.

    On the new-homes front, the latest figures show new homes SALES of about 360,000 units (this was supposed to be "good news"), while new home STARTS is at 532,000 (which has been going on every month for over a year). How do you EVER get to a bottom with those trends.

    People need to educate themselves in order to learn to tune-out the housing-pumpers.
    Jun 23 04:11 PM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • John Hussman on the Fake Recovery [View article]
    "Two thumbs up" for a great analysis and chronology. This REALLY paints a clear picture - for readers of all levels of sophistication.

    The only point I would add to this would be to explain WHY "Helicopter Ben" is so fearful of the "helicopter drop" he promised long ago.

    With the Fed and the bankster doing little more than swapping cash and financial products between themselves, the hyperinflationary aspects of Fed policy have been HIDDEN by this sequestering of capital.

    Conversely, a true helicopter-drop would IMMEDIATELY lead to runaway inflation - especially in the all-crucial commodities.

    The Fed has chosen to "strangle" the entire U.S. economy (except for the banks) to try to hide the hyperinflation it is breeding AND allow the banksters to be the ONLY beneficiaries of Fed policies.
    Oct 19 10:59 AM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Gold ETFs Are Killing Gold Miners [View article]
    This is a very important point which the author makes - and one of the big motivations for creating the ETF-scam.

    Starving the miners for investor dollars keeps share-prices down - and since it's seen as "extremely bullish" when the miners "lead" bullion prices in the market, starving the miners is obviously one of the price-suppression strategies of the banksters.
    Oct 8 04:32 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mortgage-Title Fraud: A National Catastrophe [View article]

    When I see one media talking-head after another call this nothing more than (MILLIONS of) "unintentional mistakes", I understand that being outnumbered 100:1 it takes a little more "emphatic" presentation to get peoples' attention.

    My experience is that "moderate" people will read this piece (and get the message) "despite" the tone, while those who reject this piece on "tone" alone already have their minds made up - and no approach will counter this.

    I can also say that (sadly) my more thoughtful, studious pieces tend to get far less attention - even from regular readers. There is a huge amount of "competition" for audience out here, and it is the stylistic tendencies which draw the most criticism which also draw the largest audience.

    I can also tell you there is "pressure" from distributors on writers to keep their pieces VERY short - i.e. nothing but "sound bites". If I write something "scholarly", good luck getting it published!
    Oct 8 03:39 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A bill, passed by both the House and Senate and awaiting Obama's signature, would require courts to accept the validity of out-of-state document notarizations, making it harder to challenge the authenticity of foreclosures and other legal documents. The bill could get banks involved in the robo-signing scandal off the hook. (HR 3808)  [View news story]
    What a surprise that the banksters ALREADY have their servants in the U.S. government (from both parties) working to legislate-away their fraud crime-wave.

    "U.S. Mortgage-Title Fraud A National Catastrophe"
    Oct 7 10:41 AM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment