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Jeff Paul

 
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  • Dividend Growth Models Update: Dividend Aristocrat+ Gainers And Decliners [View article]
    Thanks, Derek.
    May 3 07:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More On SDY: Better Than A Mutual Fund? [View article]
    Hi Alan,

    I track the SPY and SDY against my model portfolios. I only have data since Aug 2011, but SDY has outperformed SPY and with much lower beta and max drawdown. Over the last 3 months, beta has been higher (calculated off of weekly returns).

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Apr 22 01:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Yield On Cost Matters To Long Term Investors [View article]
    Hi Dave,

    I agree that both camps tend to be reluctant to change their minds. As I've written about in the past, I fall into the "don't find it useful" for decision-making group. My biggest complaint is the lack of a time component. Having a 20% YOC sounds great, but if it took 20 years to get there, your growth rate wasn't so hot. Also, maybe the dividend grew quickly, then slowed down. Looking at current yield and the DGR would provide better decision making info, in terms of historical metrics, and can be compared against alternative investment opportunities.
    Apr 19 10:29 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Income Growth Dividend Portfolio For 2013: 3.9% Yield And 0.70 Beta [View article]
    Thanks, djrryan. Glad you find the list helpful. I owned BP previously, and sold right when the offshore incident occurred. My gripe with BP is that while the yield has been good, price appreciation lags compared to other major oil companies.
    Apr 12 09:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Comparing Buybacks To Dividend Growth [View article]
    I find it hard to believe that only 8 DG stocks had buybacks in the last year. Looking at the top 10 in the PFM, all of them had buybacks, so crosschecking the two lists is not sufficient.
    Apr 12 10:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Income Growth Dividend Portfolio For 2013: 3.9% Yield And 0.70 Beta [View article]
    Hi gjg49,

    I don't know the specifics of APD's cash flow use. However, they did issue some bonds (see financing cash flows), about $400K, so collectively the dividend was covered if we assume that the financing was used to cover some of the capital project. Would need to investigate further to figure out where the money went. If it went toward growth projects (one-time) that will improve operating cash flows, then the dividend should not be in jeopardy. The firm also has over $1B in long-term investments, so there is a supply of cash, which also factors into the equation.
    Apr 8 09:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Income Growth Dividend Portfolio For 2013: 3.9% Yield And 0.70 Beta [View article]
    Yes, I know. I wrestle with how much to publish, as giving away my entire spreadsheet (which takes quite a bit of time to produce) seems like too much to me. I figure I've given the process, the portfolio list, and summary stats. If you want the specifics for any of these holdings, they are in the CCC list.
    Apr 7 11:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Income Growth Dividend Portfolio For 2013: 3.9% Yield And 0.70 Beta [View article]
    I tend to have the same view as rnsmith. Seems like for every analyst in favor of a stock, I can find one against it. If they were all against it, then some would argue it is a good contrarian play. etc etc. I like to examine the key concerns/opportunities, and reach my own conclusion. With a DG focus, I don't always worry about some of it, as long as there is sufficient cash flow for the dividend. If it is a more concentrated position, I scrutinize it more.
    Apr 7 07:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Income Growth Dividend Portfolio For 2013: 3.9% Yield And 0.70 Beta [View article]
    Hi stockpicker99,

    Unfortunately, the best answer I have is "it depends". I see Chowder already responded, and his link has a lot of info on price/volume strategies. If, like some DG investors, you're focus is more on the dividend stream, then it may not bother you to buy near a 52-week top, if you are still getting the yield you want, there is room for div growth (higher projected earnings, low payout), and you have a long-term timeframe. Other factors include new developments at the company or expectations on events that could impact the industry/sector.

    Personally, I like to see the stock off of its high (correction due to short-term issue), but I am pursuing total return, so I want to have that value cushion. Of course, this has made it tough the last 3 months, as the market has pretty much gone up, though I did find opportunities to buy stocks like Coach and Lockheed that slipped a bit during this timeframe.
    Apr 7 07:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Income Growth Dividend Portfolio For 2013: 3.9% Yield And 0.70 Beta [View article]
    You're welcome, Hank890!
    Apr 7 07:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Income Growth Dividend Portfolio For 2013: 3.9% Yield And 0.70 Beta [View article]
    Thanks, georgebeddoe!
    Apr 7 07:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Income Growth Dividend Portfolio For 2013: 3.9% Yield And 0.70 Beta [View article]
    I go back and forth on this. They are REITs, and Schwab classifies them under Financials, so that it what I've done. I sometimes think it would make sense to put the health care REITs under healthcare. However, does a retail (stores) REIT go under Consumer Discretionary? I've seen Industrial REITs too...gets more complicated than I want to deal with. Banks and insurance are also under financials, the REITs just have better yields, so they "win". In some ways, I like this, but it means the portfolio doesn't hold any true financial firms. The other DG models do include some actual firms (CB, AFL, TRV, etc.)
    Apr 6 11:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Income Growth Dividend Portfolio For 2013: 3.9% Yield And 0.70 Beta [View article]
    I've noticed that all of the portfolios had their betas creep upward recently, though they seemed to settle back down over the past 3 months. I haven't taken the time to trace which holdings are the culprits. This portfolio doesn't factor it in, though it has had the lowest beta of all the models. The low-beta model would consider this factor at rebalance.
    Apr 6 11:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Income Growth Dividend Portfolio For 2013: 3.9% Yield And 0.70 Beta [View article]
    You're welcome, Rom! Thanks for the feedback. I think processes like this, based on the CCC list, provide an excellent starting point for individual investors. I always recommend doing more diligence, as these models are strictly rule-based off of historical numbers.
    Apr 6 04:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Income Growth Dividend Portfolio For 2013: 3.9% Yield And 0.70 Beta [View article]
    Agreed, that's why I check the operating cash flows. The CCC list does now have a column with free cash flow payout ratio (Div / FCF), which is also an option.
    Apr 6 04:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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