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Jeff Paul

 
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  • Dividend Growth Models Update: Low Beta, High DGR Portfolio Off To A Great Start! [View article]
    Thanks, David. I really like it too…I would have bought more of those stocks, but they haven't gone down since Jan 1. But, I keep watching them. Thanks, as always, for your work on the CCC lists. Couldn't do these models without them!
    Mar 30, 2013. 01:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Growth Models Update: Low Beta, High DGR Portfolio Off To A Great Start! [View article]
    Yes, it's not supposed to happen, but the research I reviewed a few months ago gave some reasons to explain it. Low beta stocks tend to have less demand from institutional managers because they don't offer as much of a chance to beat their benchmarks and the information ratio, which they are often assessed on. Works for us!

    You won't have to wait for June. I do a rolling 3-mo update, and the Low-beta model will now be included. Next up is a rebalance for the Income Growth model, as David Fish just published the March CCC list. I'm interested in mixing that model with the Low Beta stocks. Both portfolios had very low beta, but Inc Growth will have some larger/mid caps, slightly higher yield (in theory), and better known names, while still having a moderate DGR.
    Mar 29, 2013. 09:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Growth Models Update: Low Beta, High DGR Portfolio Off To A Great Start! [View article]
    Thanks, rnsmth!
    Mar 29, 2013. 09:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 29 'Overdue' Dividend Increases: Streaks In Jeopardy [View article]
    Yes, need someone with access to CapIQ to just pull the data with the right search parameters. My project data was for non-financials, 7+ yrs of DG, $500MM+ mkt cap, but we just lumped them, didn't separate into CCC categories. I don't think I have the complete data set (by year), so unfortunately, I can't help on that front. Starting with the current CCC makes sense to me. It should at least be a decent rough estimate.
    Mar 28, 2013. 12:46 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 29 'Overdue' Dividend Increases: Streaks In Jeopardy [View article]
    Oops, I should have read further down the comment thread. Yes, there is a time mismatch. The denominator (total Challengers) needs to count all Challengers for each year, and the numerator should be the number of cuts/freezes for each of those years.

    It looks like the Changes tab in the CCC has cut/freeze data for the last 4 years. We should be able to back into the total by looking at the number of Contenders (10-13) and the change between each of those years. (e.g. Count current 5-9 yr stocks, then 6-10's, then 7-11's, etc). Someday if I have some time, I'd be happy to explore this, but it won't be any time soon. :-(
    Mar 28, 2013. 12:15 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 29 'Overdue' Dividend Increases: Streaks In Jeopardy [View article]
    Hi Robert (K),

    I like what you're trying to do, but the probabilities seem to high. Can you walk through how you are getting your total (denominator) again? If you are taking all of the dividend cutters (Challengers, 5-9 yrs) from David's list, then dividing by the total number of Challengers + the cutters (since they were dropped), there is a mismatch. The total cutters span a range of time (see deleted date), whereas the denominator total is a snapshot in time (this year's Challengers). To get the true probability, we should examine each year's data (2008 cutters / 2008 challengers, etc) and then sum them up.

    From my prior research, excluding finances, on average only about 2% of DG stocks cut their dividend in a given year, and around 10% froze it. Factor in 2008-2010 and financials, and these will be a little higher, but again, this is an average over 10+ years of time.

    Timing issue aside, I'm not totally surprised to see higher rates for Champions vs Challengers. Looking at the Challengers, the yields and payout ratios are often lower than for more mature companies (exclude REITs/MLPs), so they aren't in as much danger. There are also fewer Champions (survivor bias), so when one of them freezes or cuts, that equates to a larger percentage of the group. Note in your graph there are lots more freezes than cuts in the younger groups, but that still results in removal from the CCC, so they never make it to Champions.

    Anyway, good stuff. Please check on the counting method, as I think that would make the results more accurate, unless I misinterpreted what you wrote.
    Mar 28, 2013. 12:08 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Low Beta, High Dividend Growth Rate Portfolio With 3.4% Yield And 20% DGR [View article]
    I did have the Sharpe ratio previously, but shifted to the M2 because it makes it easier to compare against the S&P and it works better for negative returns (easier to understand). I do show the period return, std dev, and assumed risk-free rate, so you can figure out the Sharpe with those numbers. (return - risk_free) / std dev.
    Mar 20, 2013. 09:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Low Beta, High Dividend Growth Rate Portfolio With 3.4% Yield And 20% DGR [View article]
    Thanks, investor987. I like the methodology of this model too..thinking about shifting more of my funds toward this model than my others. It has performed quite well for the first 2-3 months. I'll report on that at the end of this month.
    Mar 19, 2013. 09:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Calculate Volatility-Adjusted Portfolio Metrics To Assess Relative Performance [View article]
    Good catch…I copied the Excel table from another workbook and didn't reset the links. It is only showing the total return from the June 2 cell to July 27 (2 months), not from April 27. The descriptions of the formulas are all correct, but the values are off. Guess this is one of those "do what I said, not what I did" cases…sorry about that!
    Mar 19, 2013. 09:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Dividend Growth Gone Out Of Favor? [View article]
    Thanks, Bloodhound. Now this has me curious, as it seems counter to other research saying DGR rate (higher) led to better results. Of course, compared to lower DGR, this may be true; they didn't slice the stocks by amount of divs. For your test, how many stocks did you include in the portfolio (top 50?) ? Would you mind posting on your blog a list of the holdings for each of the last 5 years? I'm curious to see what industries they were from. I noticed you required a market cap of $300MM, so that took out many of the small caps (I do the same thing for my Income/Growth model). I'm guessing banks were raising their divs more in 2008, so likely excludes many of them (lower on your ranking scale). Thanks again!
    Mar 14, 2013. 10:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Dividend Growth Gone Out Of Favor? [View article]
    Thanks, Bloodhound. Yes, I meant by percentage change, since a 10-cent per share increase might rank low on your list, but it could be a high div growth rate depending on the current dividend. You can either calculate the total %chg (as in your example) or the compound annual growth rate in the dividend. The results should be the same in terms of any patterns. The research I've seen suggests that the stocks with the higher DGR should have higher returns. Your example showed lower dividend $ growth amounts had higher performance. Curious to see if that pattern changes when using DGR. Thanks!
    Mar 13, 2013. 10:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Dividend Growth Gone Out Of Favor? [View article]
    FYI, Devlin - I have several DG strategy portfolios, and will be updating the Income-Growth model next month, so that might provide some stocks of interest for you. As for this article, I like the analysis of different metrics vs performance. I've read other research more recently that found dividend growth rate to be the main driver of total return, which seems to conflict with these results, since it ranked the dollar change from low to high (not high to low), though that doesn't necessarily reflect on the percentage change. Can you rerun the strategy on a percentage basis and see if it makes any difference? Also, is that total dollar change in divs paid, or in divs per share?
    Mar 12, 2013. 11:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Role Of BP's Dividend In Preserving Your Wealth Over The Medium Term [View article]
    I think you were doing fine up until that last paragraph…since dividends are in a separate "bucket" from capital gains, we can think of them as helping to reduce the impact of price declines. However, if we go the route of looking at total return, then there are bigger questions to ask about BP. Looking at a 10-yr (or longer) chart, BP has consistently underperformed XOM and CVX in total return, even before Deepwater incident. It has a higher dividend (except when it stopped paying it), and maybe there's a reason for that…investors might not be very interested in it without that. Not owning it now (I sold right when the incident occurred), I don't follow BP, but I'd like to know why they always underperform. Does the market have this wrong, or is management subpar? Sure, we can collect the dividend, for if you're interested in total return, unless something has changed (i.e. mgmt or opportunity), I'd look elsewhere.
    Mar 12, 2013. 09:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A High-Yield, Low-Payout Dividend Growth Model Portfolio For 2013 [View article]
    Yes, there are. See my articles on Low Volatility (research and portfolio).

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Mar 12, 2013. 09:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A High-Yield, Low-Payout Dividend Growth Model Portfolio For 2013 [View article]
    If you change the converted to Feb 6, the amount is $2.53 US. Exactly what was reported by Yahoo (well, one of the Yahoo pages).
    Mar 12, 2013. 09:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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