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Jeff Paul has been investing since his teen years, though his professional career has been in software engineering and education. His math classes participated in online stock market challenges, providing an opportunity to share his enthusiasm for investing with his students and the chance for... More
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  • FEI and Gardner Denver continue to increase profits

    Two of my previous recommendations posted excellent results and continue to improve margins.  See the articles below for the stories behind these companies. Check SA or Yahoo Finance for the recent earnings release and conference calls.

    seekingalpha.com/article/283579-fei-comp...

    seekingalpha.com/article/280955-gardner-...
    Tags: GDI, FEIC
    Oct 28 11:39 AM | Link | Comment!
  • DCC-Active-Income-Growth Model
    Per the research discussed in my recent article on potential dividend cut signals, I created a variant of the DCC-IncomeGrowth portfolio effective today (10/15).  The new portfolio is identical to the DCC-IG, except Avon and Meredith were removed because they exhibited the 20% gap signal earlier this year.  Had I come up with this rule sooner, these stocks would not have been purchased in August, and we would not have incurred their below-market performance for the last two months.  Hopefully this rule will help this model outperform the other DCC models.  I will report on this model, along with the other 3, on a quarterly basis.  

    Using the proceeds and current cash, 180 shares of Wal-Mart were purchased to replace Avon in Consumer Staples, and 180 shares of Genuine Parts replace Meredith in Consumer Discretionary. These were the next two stocks on the screen list from my original August research.  

    If any stocks in this portfolio develop the 20% signal before December, they will be sold and replaced ahead of the annual rebalance.  
    Tags: AVP, MDP, WMT, GPC
    Oct 15 2:43 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Model Portfolio - Rebalancing Decision
    I reached a decision on how to handle buyouts. I decided to treat them similar to a dividend cut event. The stock will be sold on the day of the buyout (9/29 for HGIC), and depending on the premium, the proceeds + any cash will be invested in one or two replacement stocks. In general, each stock is around 3.3% of the total portfolio. In this case, HGIC had 100% premium, allowing for 2 replacements. The first will be CBU (Community Bank System; 465 sh @ $23.24). CINF and PBCT rated higher on the screen, but both have rather high payout ratios, and earnings or CF below div payout, so I skipped them. CBU has a 4.5% div and 50% payout. The other stock will be Pepsi, as the model called for another Cons Staple if it was expanded to 31 stocks. (173 sh@$62.58) At the January rebalance, the portfolio will return to 30 stocks. This rebalance will occur on the first Friday, assuming I have access to the Dec DCC data to run the screen. These transacations minimally affect the Q3 results, so I am not going to update the results to reflect the changes.
    Oct 10 3:10 PM | Link | Comment!
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