Jeff Pierce

Market Outlook: Bulls Losing Momentum?

I wasn't suggesting that the market was heading back to March lows, but the indicators above were looking like they were heading back down to the area where there were in March. Obviously the indexes would follow, but even I don't try and predict that far in advance.

Let's start with a healthy 10-15% correction to get rid of some of the froth in the markets.

Don't Buy Yesterday's Hype

Thanks everyone for the endorsement. Timing the market is not about being right all the time, but being right when it counts. Of course I'm wrong every now and again Ranger, but my timing system kept me out of every major decline last year and 08' was a difference experience for me than most.

Best of luck to all in these volatile times.

The Bullish Side of the Market You Might Not Be Considering

Lioncub,

Thank you very much for your kind words, as well as everybody else that shares that opinion of what I do. And you are exactly right, I only offer up scenarios based on my observations.

I try to use what I've learned in the past to guide me in such a way as to help others who may have not been doing this as long as I have. I do not get paid to write any of this and have no vested interest in influencing traders.

Some Dogs of the Dow Need Replacing

hwood007,

It's one thing to have stocks that are beaten down, and it's totally something different to have worthless penny stocks that nobody really can invest in because of constant government manipulation.

Trend Reversal in Oil

After reading these great comments and having read still many bearish articles on the blogosphere almost give me more reason to be bullish on oil (at least for the short term). So many people think oil is going to drop further that one may be able to use that as a contrarian indicator in itself.

Stick a Fork in the Current Bear Market Rally

Be careful with that thinking. In a forced liquidation enviornment all asset classes are trashed as well as the what are perceived to be the strongest individual companies. A margin call is a margin call.


On Feb 17 08:50 PM ozcutty2 wrote:

> I would say to target individual stocks you have in depth knowledge
> of. There are definitely stocks unfairly beaten down that will rally
> despite the gloom. e.g. my UNH shares have rallied strongly since
> November.
> There are also a few companies trading at 3xearnings which have probably
> bottomed despite whatever the general market does.

VIX and Dow at a Crossroads

In the indicators section, the first box select "Price Performance"
Then enter the symbol you want in the parameters box. And the very next box select "behind ind." voila. Hope that helps.



On Jan 31 02:09 PM User 168565 wrote:

> How did you graph $VIX against $INDU in the same stockchart? I am
> using the free charts for now. Thank you.

Bear Market Thoughts: Looks Like Another Downturn

While I don't normally feel the need to defend myself here on SA I do want to point something out. The articles of mine you see here are only half a picture I paint regarding the markets. SA picks and chooses which articles of mine they want to off my blog and reprints them here for the benefit of their readers.

I am an ultra short term trader and yes I did indeed become bearish a the time you stated and stayed away from equities because I felt like the market could really get slammed. However, whipsaws have become an everyday thing here and the markets did turn around and I became slightly bullish on Jan 2nd.

zentrader.ca/blog/?p=7...

I'm trying to get on board with a wave here that's going to last more than a week but it just doesn't seem to be happening. Everytime the markets look like their ready to push upward into new territory they retreat. Just when the markets look like their going to crash, they bounce.

Thus has been the dilemma. Do you ride the momentum or be a contrarian investor and do the opposite of what makes sense? Being flexible as a trader is one of the most important lessons everybody should have learned from last year. I'm sticking with what I know and every trade I make is out in the open on Covestor and my blog. If you have that type of transparency in your trading I'd love to see it and trace your performance. If your trading is providing you with better results than mine I'm willing to listen to what you have to say.

Read my blog to get the whole picture before you criticize, it makes you look uninformed.


On Jan 11 09:34 AM Paul Price wrote:

> Aren't you the same guy who turned very bearish on Dec. 24th?

>
>
> You said then,
>
> Markets Are Pointing Down
> by: Jeff Pierce December 24, 2008
>
> Yesterday, I got a sell signal on the markets indicating that it’s
> more profitable to be short here than it is to initiate new long
> positions. It pays to be on the side of the trend and the market's
> inability to continue its current advance can be viewed as a loss
> of momentum to the upside. It’s tough to know how to view any movement
> in the markets given the light holiday trading so it’s best to go
> forward with a note of caution.
>
>
> Right before a huge multi-day rally.
>

What Does a Bear Market Rally Look Like?

Pauljlamont,

I did quote you on my blog, when Seeking Alpha chose this article they removed the quotes for whatever reason. I'm sorry for the confusing, but I just want you to know that I did give you credit on my site, with a link to the original article.

Zt

Toronto Stock Exchange Displaying Strength

In the two days that the Dow lost 10%, the TSX lost about 5.5%. I would say relative speaking the TSX is holding it's own against the US markets. Know I'm not about to investing on anything in the long side at the moment, but during the past 2 days I would have rather had my money in the Canadian markets.

Dealing With the Crazy Swings

They're great trading vehicles for intra-day trading styles, but I carried over a few positions and didn't want the added exposure that double etf's bring when holding stocks overnight.

Dealing With the Crazy Swings

I think the unrelentless selling is more from people getting margin calls who have to sell at any price. This type of market action just feeds upon itself. Friday's action really could have gone a lot worse, and it really feels like there's underlying buying going on as the market tries to find a bottom, even if it's only for the short term.