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Jeff Pierce
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I’m a swing trader of momentum stocks with a holding period of anywhere from a few hours to a few months. I run a number of screens to locate the strongest/weakest stocks out there, using technical analysis to determine my entries and exits. Trying to calculate the intrinsic value of stocks in... More
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  • Is Natural Gas A Short Here?

    I was asked by a reader that same question and after checking out my charts I would have to say shorting UNG right now is a bit early due to short and mid term strength. In fact, today seems like a good time to take a speculative long position if you want to "trade" this Natural Gas Fund.

    I would use the lower trendline as a range for a stop and pay attention to the RSI as it trends between 80-40. Any moves below 40 that coincide with any price supports should be regarded as suspicious trading action. So far it's series of higher highs and lower highs, with bullish RSI & price action lead me to believe this could continue higher for a little while long. The counter trend trade is in effect, but I wouldn't get too comfortable in this trade as the long term remains firmly down (see 2nd chart).
    (click to enlarge)

    Here`s an excerpt that outlines a bullish fundamental case via Sizemore`s Insights. Click the link to read the rest of the article.

    The Surprising Obama Trade: Natural Gas

    By Stan Barton

    The unemployment rate is unlikely to drop below 7% ever again. That is because neither trickle-down strategies nor big government interventions in the capitalist system can claim success in improving the U.S. economy. Throughout our history, the best spurts of economic prosperity have developed from some revolutionary impetus, most recently the prosperity created by the Internet. There are few influences that can be game-changing for a system the size of the U.S. economy, but the recent discovery that the United States has an abundance of natural gas provides the potential for that impetus. With a champion pushing for a revolutionary change to replace oil as the primary energy source, employment and prosperity can return in full force.

    A policy to take advantage of the natural gas abundance will have a "New Deal" type influence on infrastructure construction and manufacturing, and it will provide cheap energy to fuel growth in many sectors. Cheaper than oil per BTU, natural gas would have long-range systemic benefits for inflation control, just as Internet technology created systemic improvement in productivity. This article makes the case why we think that President Obama will focus on centering the U.S. energy policy on natural gas, and how it will help stocks that are in the sweet spots: natural gas exploration, well services, pipelines, fueling stations, vehicles and infrastructure.

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    Tags: UNG
    Nov 18 12:30 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Looking For A Rally Any Day Now

    By Liz DeMera

    I'm looking for a Oversold Rally as this 1st chart demonstrates the severe state of oversold that we have now. If were down again tomorrow, it would have a reading of -785 (red line) based on what is dropping off the moving average from 10 days ago.. The blue line is the 30 day which should be reaching a bottom between now and December 2nd as it still has some large numbers to work off.

    Secondly, the summation index has slowly been grinding down and finally picked up some speed today. It will need +4300 advancers to halt its slide and that is nearing extreme too. See the Summation Bar Chart Below and the NYSE Summation Index Chart.

    Lastly, we did have 193 new lows on NYSE and 132 new lows on Nasdaq which has slowly been increasing every day. Ideally you want less new lows on a lower low in price which would then become a positive divergence. In conclusion, the best case scenario would be a rally that sticks for a day or few days, then comes back down for a retest of the lows or takes out the price low and then we can check for positive divergences in many ways.

    (click to enlarge)(click to enlarge)

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    This was written by @lizdemera , who uses stock market technical analysis to determine the markets possible future performance.

    Nov 18 12:30 AM | Link | Comment!
  • US Dollar Bumping Against Resistance

    Today's chart of the day from All About Trends is UUP which we'll use as the proxy for the US Dollar.

    (click to enlarge)

    11-14 We used to say dollar up-markets down, dollar down-markets up was all the rage and it still looks that way here, but see the USD? It's bumping up against a resistance zone, the 200 day average and overbought. Should the Dollar pullback, we'll see if the dollar down-markets up is still in play.

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    Long Term View

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    The following is brought to you from All About Trends. Subscribers receive daily commentary and a weekend wrap-up. Experience our accurate market analysis, trading methodology, and stock selection to raise your equity curve for only $20 for the first two months. That is an incredible deal, but before you spend money, give our free newsletter a try to see what we're all about and grab a free report as well.

    Tags: UUP, UDN
    Nov 16 1:22 PM | Link | Comment!
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